Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[sando]

sandos you bet the cups today?

i am on m.anthos and dunaden small. GL

Nah mate but I so jealous of you being in Melbourne, been at Flemington during spring carnival, had the time of my life.



Anyway I'm on a life time racing ban, used to be obsessed with racing, a serious gambling problem, I even spent 8 Fukcing grand on some racing software and would blow whole bankrolls on the thoroughbreds.



Luckily those days are behind me now...

Good luck - Dunaden is a superb stayer.

[Kansaska]

Good job bud. Keep up the good work.

[sando]

2-1 so far today in NBA.

Would have been 3-0 if nets did not put on 10 4th quarter points on the way to being out scored by 26 in the second half - WTF?

Anyway Miami over cashes easily and Griz were solid in covering the Jazz for us, Pacers not looking good, and Kings game just started...

[TC Woods]

[sando]

Another solid day in tennis, however NBA was so frustrating with both the Nets and the Kings blowing big leads. At least we squeezed out a push with the Kings, and still finished the day positive units up in tennis and NBA.

Tennis 2-1 today
nba 2-2-1 today

Tennis YTD 21-19-4 (+9.34 Units)

NBA YTD 11-4-1 (+8.27 Units)

[sando]

ATP World Tour Finals

Juan-Martin Del Potro v David Ferrer

Ferrer m/l +125 (Sportingbet) 2 Units

Over 22.5 -120 (Pinnacle) 2 Units

Alot of talk about Ferrer having ruined his chances at this tourney by winning Paris Masters but if anyone can deal with so much tennis and so little break it's the ultra fit tennis hustler from Spain. He leads H2H against Del Potro 5-2 and has won the last 3 contests, including 2 this year, both in straight sets and both as a dog. Ferrer won 2 Inddor tournaments in a row so clearly he is in the better form. Only negative is possible fatigue both physical and mental and once again it is worth noting that Ferrer is a warrior, both physically and mentally. In the past Del boy has tried to use his power game to hit right through Ferrer without imagination and Ferrer has been able to adapt and grind Del Potro down. Even Nadal needs a strategy when playing Ferrer on clay, you have to plan and think, his Tennis IQ is so high. Ferrer's confidence is up and he has nothing to lose as no-one is expecting much from him here, and also the court is slow enough to suit Ferrer more than Del Potro. I don't expect it to be easy for either player, and could easy see this going three, however even 1 tie breaker in a straight sets match should just about secure the over.

David Ferrer has won 5 of last 6 when priced as Underdog (+101 - +199)
David Ferrer has won 10 in a row on Indoor Hard.
David Ferrer has won 4 of last 5 when Opponent is a Top 10 Player.

[sando]

NBA

Detroit @ Denver

Nuggets -10 -107 (Pinnacle) 3 Units

After a 0-3 start, the hype surrounding this team in the pre-season and the heartbreaking loss to the Heat, I expect a fired up Nuggets team to come out of the gates strongly in their home opener against the hapless Pistons. Detroit was woeful the other night in LA and I can't see things getting any easier in the short term against a Nuggets team who are almost a different team at the high altitude pepsi centre than they can be on the road. Both Farried and Iguodala showed some nice form in Miami and 7 players hit double figures. This is a very balanced offensive unit and Detroit simply doesn't have the offensive weapons to go toe to toe or the key defenders to stop the multitude of Nugget threats. I expect Denver to win and win big.

[ch1027]

Keep up the good work. Congrats on your success.

[sando]

Ferrer cashes. Over cashes. 2-0. Great night. Now onto the NBA.

[Rod_M]

Good luck there pal!

[sando]

Tennis 2-0 today
nba 1 pending

Tennis YTD 23-19-4 (+13.5 Units)

NBA YTD 11-4-1 (+8.27 Units)

[blinky88]

Hey Sando...... you like joker or murray tomorrow????

[FlipsideRM]

Would love to see your tennis plays tomorrow. Close lines

[Goat Milk]

ATP World Tour Finals

Juan-Martin Del Potro v David Ferrer

Ferrer m/l +125 (Sportingbet) 2 Units

Over 22.5 -120 (Pinnacle) 2 Units

Alot of talk about Ferrer having ruined his chances at this tourney by winning Paris Masters but if anyone can deal with so much tennis and so little break it's the ultra fit tennis hustler from Spain. He leads H2H against Del Potro 5-2 and has won the last 3 contests, including 2 this year, both in straight sets and both as a dog. Ferrer won 2 Inddor tournaments in a row so clearly he is in the better form. Only negative is possible fatigue both physical and mental and once again it is worth noting that Ferrer is a warrior, both physically and mentally. In the past Del boy has tried to use his power game to hit right through Ferrer without imagination and Ferrer has been able to adapt and grind Del Potro down. Even Nadal needs a strategy when playing Ferrer on clay, you have to plan and think, his Tennis IQ is so high. Ferrer's confidence is up and he has nothing to lose as no-one is expecting much from him here, and also the court is slow enough to suit Ferrer more than Del Potro. I don't expect it to be easy for either player, and could easy see this going three, however even 1 tie breaker in a straight sets match should just about secure the over.

David Ferrer has won 5 of last 6 when priced as Underdog (+101 - +199)
David Ferrer has won 10 in a row on Indoor Hard.
David Ferrer has won 4 of last 5 when Opponent is a Top 10 Player.

[sando]

Hey Sando...... you like joker or murray tomorrow????

Djoker absolutely, check out Eagle Phan's write up and I will ad my own analysis with a pick later mate

[sando]

Trying to send you PM mate, you gotta delete some, your inbox is full

[sando]

Would love to see your tennis plays tomorrow. Close lines

I'll start work on the tennis as soon as Nuggets game is over mate, trading live on the game so flat out til then...

[CollegePro]

nice day Sando... appreciate it if you can post early tennis game tonight.. I won't have time to check your pick early in the morning tomorrow. (est)

[sando]

nice day Sando... appreciate it if you can post early tennis game tonight.. I won't have time to check your pick early in the morning tomorrow. (est)

2 hours max mate...

[CollegePro]

2 hours max mate...

sounds good! thanks!

[CollegePro]

congrats on denver pick as well!! you are killing it Sando!

[sando]

What a game! Pistons showed massive improvement from Lakers game and cover was in doubt until the very last minute. 109 points means no taco's for Nug's fans (need 110) haha.

Perfect day today 3-0.

Let's get that money.

Tennis 2-0 today
NBA 1-0

Tennis YTD 23-19-4 (+13.5 Units)

NBA YTD 12-4-1 (+11.06 Units)

[Duff85]

What a game! Pistons showed massive improvement from Lakers game and cover was in doubt until the very last minute. 109 points means no taco's for Nug's fans (need 110) haha.

Perfect day today 3-0.

Let's get that money.

Tennis 2-0 today
NBA 1-0

Tennis YTD 23-19-4 (+13.5 Units)

NBA YTD 12-4-1 (+11.06 Units)

Had Pistons+9.5 (+112) - The we want Tacos chant was pretty funny.

[therealdealau]

Hey pal, nice looking thread - killing the books so far. Glad we both cashed on Denver, was a little worried. Had the same angle as you. Are you a Laker fan too? Thoughts on the boys tomorrow?

[sando]

ATP World Tour Finals

Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray

Djokovic -1.5 -107 (Pinnacle) 1.5 Units

Over 23.5 -110 (Pinnacle) 2 Units

*Last 3 matches have all gone over (Over is 4-2 this year)


Ok boys the big match tonight Muzza v Djokovic. I don't care what anyone says, IMO Novak is the superior Indoor player. Murray has had a great year, and has surely achieved all he dreamed of for this season but he has not looked great as of late. The recent loss against Raonic was very poor, match points wasted against Janowicz, even in his first match here Birdman could have taken the match in straight sets. Admittedly Djokovic was also not at his best early against a fired up Tsonga, but he put the French rebellion down and pulled away comfortably in the second set as he found his groove. It needs to be said right now that as of this year these two are now very evenly matched on almost all surfaces (clay excluded), so those that seek value should look elsewhere, as unless you are getting +130 on either player these matches are basically coin flips with gut feeling and hunches dominating over genuine capping. Therefore while I really like Djokovic in this position I will not be going large on this match and even if you like Murray at + odds I would reccomend again to be conservative as there will be better value wagering positions found in this tournament. Having said all that I am going to contradict myself by saying that I really like Djoker in this position. Why?

- Novak has just recaptured #1 from the G.O.A.T and surely the best way to prove he is worthy, i.e a genuine #1 (as opposed to a Dinara Safina type #1 ranking) is to dominate a tournament made up soley from the challengers to his throne.
- Motivation factor must surely favor Novak as Murray has had a splendid year and is surely content with his performance, and while the H2H may be 3-3 this year, it is Novak who surely has a chip on his shoulder after coming so close but falling short in 5 sets to Muzza at the US open final.
- It has been shown that the O2 courts are playing slow, and Novak has a 2-0 record over Murray on clay and a 1-0 record on Indoor hard (although I have no idea of the Madrid court speed from the Masters Indoor but traditionally all Spanish courts play slow)
- For me Djokovic has shown more so far, albeit there has only been 1 match played, but Berdych most definitely could have beaten Murray in 2, whereas Tsonga despite playing great in the 1st set, never really gave the impression that he was going to win that match.

Other factors to consider
- Murray playing at home. The english no doubt do love Muzza these days after his olympic gold for GB and his emotional speech at Wimbledon but I am not swayed by this. As people, Djokovic has far more charisma than Muzza and hence he has a strong following everywhere he goes. It would be far more relevant with Muzza playing say Ferrer or Del Potro than the "home court advantage" against the likes of ultra popular players like Federer and Djokovic.
- Djokovic's family problems. Yes his dad is sick and as a human being it no doubt plays on his mind, but these days Novak is the ultimate professional and again I am not concerned. Once he is on the court only the tennis matters.

Murray v Berdych

[SiMON2g]

jumping on that with ya, let's hit this

[J.M.A.]

same here!! let's get it fellas!!

[sando]

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Thomas Berdych

Berdych -2 +101 (Pinnacle) 2 Units

*Analysis to follow (gotta get to work first) but here's something relevant to chew on in the meantime...

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has lost 9 in a row when Opponent is a Top 10 Player.

[brumbies]

you are en fuego! wanted to start tailing but im afraid the moment I do so, you will start losing haha.

[CollegePro]

good job again Sando and thanks for the winner... tailling you on berdych -2 as well. let's cash this too!!!

[sando]

jumping on that with ya, let's hit this

same here!! let's get it fellas!!

you are en fuego! wanted to start tailing but im afraid the moment I do so, you will start losing haha.

good job again Sando and thanks for the winner... tailling you on berdych -2 as well. let's cash this too!!!




2-0 today
Djokovic Cashes!
Over Cashes!
Now Berdych for the sweep... (hopefully)


Sorry gang no time for a write up on Tsonga/Berdych match. Putting in work on the NBA. Boom.

[nosaij]

good morning and good job

[sando]

good morning and good job

What you doing up this early?

[nosaij]

exam at 9.30 gosh. 7,8,9th 3 exams in a row. havnt slept for 2 days LOL

[sando]

NBA

I really like today's card, had my eye on a couple of these games for a few days now. Normally I wouldn't play anywhere near this many games, but as I said I really like today's card.

Atlanta v Indiana

Hawks -3.5 -109 (Pinnacle) 2.5 Units

San Antonio v LA Clippers

Clippers m/l +101 2.5 Units
Over 201 -107 1 Unit

Memphis @ Milwaukee

Grizzlies -1 -102 (Pinnacle) 1.5 Units
Under 198 -109 1.5 Units

Cleveland @ Golden State

Cav's +4.5 -107 (pinnacle) 1.5 Units

LA Lakers @ Utah

Lakers m/l +130 1 Unit


Denver @ Houston

Nuggets +2.5 -109 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit

Orlando @ Minnesota

T-Wolves -5 -117 (Pinnacle - bought the hook) 1 Unit


Toronto @ Dallas

Raptors +7 -115 (Pinnacle - bought the hook) 1 Unit