Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

sando · 11-16-12, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by Byrone09

My US book doesn't have much in the way of NBA props. Wish I had that one. Also have the Pistons/Magic o/u currently at 188! Should I still go with the over?

Nah mate lay off it at 188, the value is pretty much gone by now. Also you can play that prop for fun in the SBR sportsbook with your points if you like. You'll actually get +3.5 but at -140.

aussieH · 11-16-12, 06:34 PM

Sports bet only has over / under on player. What about Felton under on points or assists

sando · 11-16-12, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by aussieH

Sports bet only has over / under on player. What about Felton under on points or assists

I just had a look at the sportsbet options mate, their lines look pretty sharp for the prop bets, I'd probably leave it. Interesting though how the combined O/U totals of Felton's points & assits was 21, and Conley's was 20.5. According to them there is nothing splitting the two today...?

aussieH · 11-16-12, 06:48 PM

Cheers. Tab may list later. On their site they list this type of bet under sports exotics if anyone is looking.

therealdealau · 11-16-12, 07:26 PM

Good luck with your plays mate

grim259 · 11-16-12, 07:44 PM

Sando, no m/l but the warriors are -1 at -110 on bovada, so I'm going to take that, but how many units? 1?

easysaid · 11-16-12, 10:39 PM

hoping portland pick it up, big money riding on this game.

qwe123 · 11-17-12, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by easysaid

hoping portland pick it up, big money riding on this game.

Heartbreaker Rockets 3 at the end to take it to OT

sando · 11-17-12, 01:42 AM

Very unhappy with today's results. We ended up finishing 3-2-1 today and yet down -0.23 Units for the day, due to poor unit management on my behalf. First of all, should have had minimum 1.5x on the Pistons over. Yes it's easy to say that in hindsight seeing as they crushed the total with ease, but I was quite confident in this total and with the extra juice we paid, ended up making very little profit, I just have a bad habit of flat betting all totals at 1x. Also on the Warriors game should have also had minimum 1.5x as I was quite confident again in the under-valued Warriors against a severly depleted T-Wolves outfit, yet as I added the play late felt I should just leave it at the 1x. The Portland game was a joke, once again they were dissapointing and if not for that late three from Morris, we would have been up over 2 units on the day. Some good news is that anyone who played my prop bet cleaned up as Conley won the pts/ast battle S/U against Felton and didn't even need the 2.5 points.

NBA YTD 44-24-5 (+23.7 Units) 64.7%

(NBA ATS/ML 33-18-3 YTD) 64.7%

(NBA totals 11-6-2 YTD) 64.7%

Tennis YTD 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units) 55.3%

*Let's move on with some Rugby winners tonight and then back to the NBA tommorow...

king_danilo92 · 11-17-12, 01:45 AM

your betting too many games a day man, you cant expect to come out 6-0 everytime. you should try maybe 2 games on your REAL confident games. keep the head up bro

sando · 11-17-12, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by king_danilo92

your betting too many games a day man, you cant expect to come out 6-0 everytime. you should try maybe 2 games on your REAL confident games. keep the head up bro

Thank you for your concern sir but my head is fine, I have been doing this for a long time and I know exactly what I am doing. So who says I am betting too many games? Your opinion? You read that in a book somewhere? I could post links to sports betting articles that debunk the myth of betting too many games, that is the wrong way to look at it. The ammount of games you wager on is irrelevant, there are far more important factors to consider in your sports betting strategy. Those that think you can only make a long term profit betting 1-2 games a day almost always say so not from experience, but by passing on information they have read or heard from others.

You've been here 1 day and your already telling me how I should be adjusting my style...?

wizcodlifa · 11-17-12, 02:37 AM

sando i agree with ya. past week or so, i been betting roughly 6 games a day. and saturdays up to 20. and am up over 1500 dollars in that week alone. no limit too how many bets, limit is money management with those bets, and how you are betting. dumb a55 king danilo

Frisco · 11-17-12, 03:33 AM

I only blame money (unit) management when my big bets don't hit. It's nice when they do hit and you can go .500 for the day and still turn a profit. gl sando

ShotgunRua · 11-17-12, 03:56 AM

Your effort is appreciated as always sando. Personally i prefer to spread the risk across a few more bets, more chance of losing something but less chance of losing big.

I'm learning a lot from this thread, still relatively new to all this.

king_danilo92 · 11-17-12, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

sando i agree with ya. past week or so, i been betting roughly 6 games a day. and saturdays up to 20. and am up over 1500 dollars in that week alone. no limit too how many bets, limit is money management with those bets, and how you are betting. dumb a55 king danilo

pipe down there pippy long stocking

southmadejd · 11-17-12, 10:22 AM

You are still doing very well sando

dioforce · 11-17-12, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by southmadejd

You are still doing very well sando

Crowing Capers · 11-17-12, 10:31 AM

Doing well , massive understatement
Over 23 units up in 3 weeks NBA is outstandingggggg. Never mind the lazy 17 units on tennis and solid tipping in Union and UFC. Sando is flying on the punt....
Unit sizes are diff for everyone but I can imagine Sandos units are reasonable. Saying this fair to say Sando has his head right in the game..
Cheers for your work on here

gamewinninglv · 11-17-12, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by sando

Thank you for your concern sir but my head is fine, I have been doing this for a long time and I know exactly what I am doing. So who says I am betting too many games? Your opinion? You read that in a book somewhere? I could post links to sports betting articles that debunk the myth of betting too many games, that is the wrong way to look at it. The ammount of games you wager on is irrelevant, there are far more important factors to consider in your sports betting strategy. Those that think you can only make a long term profit betting 1-2 games a day almost always say so not from experience, but by passing on information they have read or heard from others.

You've been here 1 day and your already telling me how I should be adjusting my style...?

Great reply. Don't you love people like that ?

dioforce · 11-17-12, 02:31 PM

I doubt Sando expects to continue the NBA season at his current rate. Even the best cappers muddle around or under 60%. So let's not get carried away.

therealdealau · 11-17-12, 02:35 PM

Sando my mate, good luck with the bets today. Thinking about a GSP/Hendricks parlay for some fun thoughts?

Also to touch on that issue I read above, if you like a play you got to go for it. I don't believe there is anything as "too many plays" if you've put the research in you back yourself, and your doin work keep it up pal don't listen to the haters.

usfunca · 11-17-12, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by therealdealau

Sando my mate, good luck with the bets today. Thinking about a GSP/Hendricks parlay for some fun thoughts?

Was thinking of making the same parlay.

dioforce · 11-17-12, 05:04 PM

I like Makdessi and definitely Maguire tonight in the UFC fwiw.

Hawke · 11-17-12, 05:11 PM

Not a lot of value in UFC though.

sando · 11-17-12, 07:43 PM

NBA

Chicago @ LA Clippers

Clippers -6 (-108 Pinnacle) 2x

Denver @ SA

Under 202 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x

sando · 11-17-12, 08:00 PM

Sorry about the late release boys, struggling for time as usual on the w/e's (work), however I'm already working on tommorows games and will have the card done in a few hours so that we can hopefully get the best available lines. Really like a couple of games on Sunday's card...

SiMON2g · 11-17-12, 08:36 PM

Good luck today mate, I love the under mate. I've been crunching some numbers to see how i go with totals and this SA line for the total was way off so I think it's under. Hopefully my research serves me good mate, gl to you too.

Catchn_Picks · 11-17-12, 08:50 PM

Thanks Sando....thank you for the effort and best of luck always.

dioforce · 11-17-12, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by SiMON2g

Good luck today mate, I love the under mate. I've been crunching some numbers to see how i go with totals and this SA line for the total was way off so I think it's under. Hopefully my research serves me good mate, gl to you too.

I find you destroying the word 'mate' mate.

That Guy · 11-17-12, 09:22 PM

GL mate!
With you on the Nuggets UNDER

sando · 11-18-12, 08:53 AM

Ok record will be updated and analysis will be forthcoming for today's picks but first, straight to the action, gonna have to grab the Knicks play ASAP as no doubt we're riding with Joe Public on this one and the line will prob move past -7 soon.

NBA

Indiana @ NY Knicks

Knicks -7 (-105 Pinnacle) 2x

Pacers finally showed something in their last game with a convincing 20 point win ovet the Mav's and yet their two most important players in Hibbert & George were still far from convincing. The Pacers do match up rather nicely with the Knicks and could cause them problems defensively, however the Knicks haven't been playing close games, especially at home. Apart from the 4 point win in SA every game has been decided by 10 points or more and it's hard to imagine the Knicks dropping 2 in a row considering the energy they have been playing with and the renewed excitement in NY. If the Knicks win, and I sure expect them too against an underwhelming Pacers line-up then I do not see the spread being an issue, the Knicks are great front runners and have been smashing teams at home. Tyson should help slow down the potentially dangerous Hibbert and you would expect George to have his hands full with Carmello. J.R Smith will be looking to bounce back from his poor showing against the Griz and with the Pacers offensive troubles this season even if the Knicks 3 point bombers are off again it's not hard to imagine them still being able to rack up enough points to win and cover ATS.

Brooklyn @ Sacramento

Nets -3 (-109 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Chicago @ Portland

Blazers m/l (-102 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Some fascinating match-ups in this game, Batum/Deng, Boozer/Aldridge, Hickson/Noah but to me the key is Lillard. Despite the undeniable quality of the Bulls as a defensive unit, I am not convinced any of their guards can handle Lillard in a one on one situation. Also Deng will have his hands full covering the red hot Batum

and that may take away from his own offensive input? Portland no doubt has just about the worst bench in the NBA but I like them at home for even money regardless as they finally have some momentum going and the starting unit is easily good enough to both create leads and erase defecits as needed. Matthews handy defensively if Hinrich starts nailing three's or Rip has his mid range game working, might not be quick enough to handle little Nate who has been hot himself, however Lillard can stay with the little man no problem-o.

Cleveland @ Philly

Cav's +7 (-113 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Holiday v Irving - the future of the NBA on show today? What a match up regardless. Philly still has plenty of issues to work out despite their recent win over the Jazz, where it was literally a 1-2 show between J-Rich and J-rue, yet both those guys will have their hands full today with their respective match-ups. No way is J-Rich quick enough to guard Waiters who could definitely give him headaches. Do expect Philly to win this game, however think 7 points is just too much to ask from them at the moment and expect a desperate Cav's team to keep this game close. Could see Varejao racking up some offensive boards against an average Philly rebounding team potentially leading to 2nd chance points for the Cav's.

Houston @ LA Lakers

Lakers -7 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x

* Boys may seem like a lot of games on an 8 game card, but as I mentioned earlier I've been looking at today's card for a few days and was quite keen on a few of these games as soon as I saw them (depending on lines of course). In general my style of handicapping is heavily dependent on my "handle" on a team. I'm very match-up orientated, I can easily switch from loving a team in a certain situation to hating the same team the very next day depending on match-up's. I'm also very big on momentum and potential psychological factors that may affect individual games. My specialty is the Western Conference, and without doubt I will have more picks on Western conference games, however because of this I tend to put in the most effort reading up on Eastern Conference teams and trying to catch games that I don't otherwise care about other than from a handicapping point of view. I keep notes on each team and my current feelings about them (usually stuff like team attitude, possible momentum and current value as a betting option), I don't trust my memory but I always trust my notes. I like to see what other cappers are playing on to see if their are valid reasons why I can be talked out of a pick, however I will almost never let myself get talked into a pick because of others opinions, if you don't trust your own instincts in this game you will unlikely be able to maintain a winning % over 55. Most importantly of all I like to focus on teams that are out of favor with the public and especially the books and try and find situations where there is nice value on them (current examples - blazers, pistons, raptors, suns).

Note on totals - I calculate my totals using a rather basic strategy. First I consider style v style, coach v coach (eg. Gentry v D'antoni means points, whereas Thibodeau v Rivers tends to mean the opposite), and my personal favorite pg v pg match up's, then I calculate a rough total with a 4 point spread, say 188-192 then compare it to outside sources like Accuscore for example and finally compare all totals to the official line at the books and look for discrepancies.

sando · 11-18-12, 11:21 AM

*Just working on some analysis for today's picks now

NBA YTD 45-25-5 (+24.04 Units) 64.3%

(NBA ATS/ML 34-18-3 YTD) 65.4%

(NBA totals 11-7-2 YTD) 61.1%

Tennis YTD 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)

ShotgunRua · 11-18-12, 11:49 AM

Thanks for the analysis, solid as always Sando. Good luck!

freshguy222 · 11-18-12, 01:42 PM

hey sando, any thoughts on the nets play if you find the time?
kind of worried about that play since brock is on it, thanks for all your work.

sando · 11-18-12, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by freshguy222

hey sando, any thoughts on the nets play if you find the time?
kind of worried about that play since brock is on it, thanks for all your work.

Mr. Fresh, I'm assuming you mean the legendary Brock Landers? Is he on the Nets? I might have to double the units haha. Anyway it's 3.5 hours until tip off, and I will give you my analysis on the game in 1 hour, sorry can't do sooner, must get to work first.

PS - BOOM!

Knicker-Bockers in the house. Great start boys, let's keep rolling...