By Dan Beaver, Special to NASCAR.COM
Two weeks ago, Atlanta was filled with comers and goers, wave-arounds, and two green-white-checkered finishes. Despite all those factors that could have altered the ending, it was a dominant driver who found himself in Victory Lane when Kurt Busch outpaced Matt Kenseth and Juan Montoya.
Of the top-10 finishers, only two drivers started on the first five rows, while a couple of fresh faces made their way to the front of the pack after taking the green from the middle of the grid. In the Kobalt Tools 500, Paul Menard earned his second career top-five. His first came at Talladega in the 2008 fall event, but this was much more significant because he did not have the whim of the draft to push him toward the front. It also came on a track where he scored his first Cup top-10 in his first oval start.
A.J. Allmendinger narrowly missed the top five with a sixth-place finish, but like Menard, that was his best result on a non-restrictor plate track and he also raced with the leaders for most of the day. It's too soon to talk about a changing of the guard, but both of these drivers have shown radical improvement in the past two seasons and Fantasy owners will want to pay close attention to them on unrestricted, intermediate speedways later in the year.
For the second consecutive week, Kevin Harvick struggled in practice and qualifying only to ultimately finish among the top 10. He was a non-factor for most of the Kobalt Tools 500, but benefited from NASCAR's free pass and wave around rules to get back on the lead lap and make a late race charge to ninth.
Red Bull Racing's Brian Vickers and Scott Speed also landed in the top 10 and were pleasant surprises for fantasy owners after qualifying well back on the grid.
Bristol has just as much potential to shake up the points in your league. In the best of circumstances, this half-mile bullring is filled with danger, but the new rules insure that more cars than ever will finish on the lead lap, which compounds potential problems your drivers might face. In Atlanta, Clint Bowyer was running comfortably inside the top 10 until a final caution came out after Jamie McMurray clipped him and sent the No. 33 into the wall. He still might have earned a decent top-15 finish if nine cars had not been waved around the pace car on the previous yellow flag.
Not all of NASCAR's rules have negative effects, however. The upside of the new car is that these machines are much more durable than they were a few years ago. With SAFER barriers and foam-padded doors, race cars can take a little more damage than their '90s counterparts and keep rolling.
The Favorites
For all the unpredictability of the short tracks, the cream tends to rise to the top. In the past two seasons, nine drivers have a better than 50 percent average of finishing in the top 10 and 16 drivers have finished in the top 15 more than half the time. Last year, only two drivers swept the top-10 in the six races held at Bristol, Martinsville and Richmond, but several others came close.
One of the sweepers is a favorite this week. In 2008, Mark Martin skipped both Bristol and Martinsville races, but he finished in the top five at Richmond twice. He carried that momentum into 2009 and finished eighth or better in every race held on a track less than a mile in length. Better still, his best short track result of second came at Bristol in the August night race.
Denny Hamlin had one result outside the top 10 on last year's short tracks, but that came at Richmond; he was perfect at Bristol and nearly perfect everywhere else. Dating back to the 2007 Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond, he has finished sixth or better in 12 of 14 short track races and nine of his past 11 attempts on this track type have ended in top-fives. Three of these were victories, and while they came on the flat tracks of Richmond and Martinsville, his past three Bristol bashes have ended in top-fives including a runner-up finish to Kyle Busch last year.
The younger Busch brother certainly has the most raw momentum at the moment. He swept Bristol's Victory Lane last year and finished second in the fall 2008 event. Add in another victory in this race in 2007 and a second the previous fall before the track was reconfigured to include progressive banking and this is one of his favorite places to visit.
Dark Horses
Ryan Newman was the second driver who swept the top 10 last year along with Martin, but he gets relegated to the status of dark horse because all but one of those results were outside the top five. At Bristol, he hasn't had a top-five since 2004, but his past three attempts -- as well as six of his past eight -- have all ended between sixth and ninth. Fantasy owners may be willing to give up a shot at the victory for consistency like that.
Marcos Ambrose got off to a rocky start this year with a 41st in Daytona and a 35th in California, which left fantasy owners wondering if his late-season surge from 2009 was a fluke. It wasn't. He proved that much by finishing in the top 15 in his past two races and narrowly missed a top-10 two weeks ago in Atlanta. That recovery came just in time for him to return to Bristol, where he was a surprisingly good value last year by scoring consecutive top-10s. Last fall, he raced his way to third and appeared to be capable of winning the Sharpie 500.
Underdogs
David Reutimann has not yet earned a top-10 at Bristol, but it seems like only a matter of time. His momentum was temporarily stalled two weeks ago with a 40th-place finish, but that came as a result of overheating on Lap 167. Before then, he was running with the leaders for a fourth consecutive race after sweeping the top 15 in the first three events of 2010 and finishing 16th or better in his past three tries in 2009. Last year at Bristol, he finished 12th in the spring race and was 17th in the fall, but a small improvement could have him knocking on the door for a top-10.
If you are looking for a true dark horse that will shock your competition, consider Mike Bliss. (We'll give you a moment to collect yourself.) Composed? Consider this: the past two times he showed up at Bristol he finished in the top 20. One of these was a 17th in the first new car event in 2007, racing in equipment for Beth Ann Morganthau that is similar to what he'll run on Sunday. In 2005, he finished seventh for Gene Haas. After starting and parking for most of last year, Tommy Baldwin Racing has taken the bit out of the driver's mouth to allow him to run until the end; that has resulted in two 20-something results in his past three races and could pay huge dividends this week. Short track racing tends to reward a driver's skill over raw power.
Two weeks ago, Atlanta was filled with comers and goers, wave-arounds, and two green-white-checkered finishes. Despite all those factors that could have altered the ending, it was a dominant driver who found himself in Victory Lane when Kurt Busch outpaced Matt Kenseth and Juan Montoya.
Of the top-10 finishers, only two drivers started on the first five rows, while a couple of fresh faces made their way to the front of the pack after taking the green from the middle of the grid. In the Kobalt Tools 500, Paul Menard earned his second career top-five. His first came at Talladega in the 2008 fall event, but this was much more significant because he did not have the whim of the draft to push him toward the front. It also came on a track where he scored his first Cup top-10 in his first oval start.
A.J. Allmendinger narrowly missed the top five with a sixth-place finish, but like Menard, that was his best result on a non-restrictor plate track and he also raced with the leaders for most of the day. It's too soon to talk about a changing of the guard, but both of these drivers have shown radical improvement in the past two seasons and Fantasy owners will want to pay close attention to them on unrestricted, intermediate speedways later in the year.
For the second consecutive week, Kevin Harvick struggled in practice and qualifying only to ultimately finish among the top 10. He was a non-factor for most of the Kobalt Tools 500, but benefited from NASCAR's free pass and wave around rules to get back on the lead lap and make a late race charge to ninth.
Red Bull Racing's Brian Vickers and Scott Speed also landed in the top 10 and were pleasant surprises for fantasy owners after qualifying well back on the grid.
Bristol has just as much potential to shake up the points in your league. In the best of circumstances, this half-mile bullring is filled with danger, but the new rules insure that more cars than ever will finish on the lead lap, which compounds potential problems your drivers might face. In Atlanta, Clint Bowyer was running comfortably inside the top 10 until a final caution came out after Jamie McMurray clipped him and sent the No. 33 into the wall. He still might have earned a decent top-15 finish if nine cars had not been waved around the pace car on the previous yellow flag.
Not all of NASCAR's rules have negative effects, however. The upside of the new car is that these machines are much more durable than they were a few years ago. With SAFER barriers and foam-padded doors, race cars can take a little more damage than their '90s counterparts and keep rolling.
The Favorites
For all the unpredictability of the short tracks, the cream tends to rise to the top. In the past two seasons, nine drivers have a better than 50 percent average of finishing in the top 10 and 16 drivers have finished in the top 15 more than half the time. Last year, only two drivers swept the top-10 in the six races held at Bristol, Martinsville and Richmond, but several others came close.
One of the sweepers is a favorite this week. In 2008, Mark Martin skipped both Bristol and Martinsville races, but he finished in the top five at Richmond twice. He carried that momentum into 2009 and finished eighth or better in every race held on a track less than a mile in length. Better still, his best short track result of second came at Bristol in the August night race.
Denny Hamlin had one result outside the top 10 on last year's short tracks, but that came at Richmond; he was perfect at Bristol and nearly perfect everywhere else. Dating back to the 2007 Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond, he has finished sixth or better in 12 of 14 short track races and nine of his past 11 attempts on this track type have ended in top-fives. Three of these were victories, and while they came on the flat tracks of Richmond and Martinsville, his past three Bristol bashes have ended in top-fives including a runner-up finish to Kyle Busch last year.
The younger Busch brother certainly has the most raw momentum at the moment. He swept Bristol's Victory Lane last year and finished second in the fall 2008 event. Add in another victory in this race in 2007 and a second the previous fall before the track was reconfigured to include progressive banking and this is one of his favorite places to visit.
Dark Horses
Ryan Newman was the second driver who swept the top 10 last year along with Martin, but he gets relegated to the status of dark horse because all but one of those results were outside the top five. At Bristol, he hasn't had a top-five since 2004, but his past three attempts -- as well as six of his past eight -- have all ended between sixth and ninth. Fantasy owners may be willing to give up a shot at the victory for consistency like that.
Marcos Ambrose got off to a rocky start this year with a 41st in Daytona and a 35th in California, which left fantasy owners wondering if his late-season surge from 2009 was a fluke. It wasn't. He proved that much by finishing in the top 15 in his past two races and narrowly missed a top-10 two weeks ago in Atlanta. That recovery came just in time for him to return to Bristol, where he was a surprisingly good value last year by scoring consecutive top-10s. Last fall, he raced his way to third and appeared to be capable of winning the Sharpie 500.
Underdogs
David Reutimann has not yet earned a top-10 at Bristol, but it seems like only a matter of time. His momentum was temporarily stalled two weeks ago with a 40th-place finish, but that came as a result of overheating on Lap 167. Before then, he was running with the leaders for a fourth consecutive race after sweeping the top 15 in the first three events of 2010 and finishing 16th or better in his past three tries in 2009. Last year at Bristol, he finished 12th in the spring race and was 17th in the fall, but a small improvement could have him knocking on the door for a top-10.
If you are looking for a true dark horse that will shock your competition, consider Mike Bliss. (We'll give you a moment to collect yourself.) Composed? Consider this: the past two times he showed up at Bristol he finished in the top 20. One of these was a 17th in the first new car event in 2007, racing in equipment for Beth Ann Morganthau that is similar to what he'll run on Sunday. In 2005, he finished seventh for Gene Haas. After starting and parking for most of last year, Tommy Baldwin Racing has taken the bit out of the driver's mouth to allow him to run until the end; that has resulted in two 20-something results in his past three races and could pay huge dividends this week. Short track racing tends to reward a driver's skill over raw power.