League season is upon us and thought I would open a discussion on what everyone looks for. I know last year there was a guy on here that had a model and was testing it .. It would be interesting to know what he was looking for. I crunched some numbers over the last 3 years and here are some findings, its not that exciting but thought I would share it anyway.
Over the last 3 seasons avg total points is 40.9 points a game.
Round Games:
2011 => 39.03
2010 => 42.18
2009 => 41.59
Finals => 39.55
I always thought night games were lower scoring, and they are by over 2 points a game
Night games => 40.25
Day games => 42.53
I broke the season up into 3 groups, Rounds 1 -10 - then SOO period Rds11 - 18 and then the last 8 rounds (19-26) and the results were :
Rds 1-10 => 40
Rds 11-18 => 38.45
Rds 19-26 => 43.75
I always had a feeling of betting unders and underdogs with the points during origin period would be profitable, looking at this there is a reasonable edge towards unders in that period.
I dont have any data over what the lines were for these games, and of course that would make it alot more interesting, so if anyway knows where I can get closing lines for league that would be great.
I also found that betting favourites blindly you would have been better off than underdogs, but neither is recommended
Another angle I was thinking about was the fact that it is always said that tries are scored off back to back sets, so is there any relation between penalty count and points scored? If that is the case are there any referees (or a combination of referees, now that we have two) that award more penalties than others?
Your thoughts?
Over the last 3 seasons avg total points is 40.9 points a game.
Round Games:
2011 => 39.03
2010 => 42.18
2009 => 41.59
Finals => 39.55
I always thought night games were lower scoring, and they are by over 2 points a game
Night games => 40.25
Day games => 42.53
I broke the season up into 3 groups, Rounds 1 -10 - then SOO period Rds11 - 18 and then the last 8 rounds (19-26) and the results were :
Rds 1-10 => 40
Rds 11-18 => 38.45
Rds 19-26 => 43.75
I always had a feeling of betting unders and underdogs with the points during origin period would be profitable, looking at this there is a reasonable edge towards unders in that period.
I dont have any data over what the lines were for these games, and of course that would make it alot more interesting, so if anyway knows where I can get closing lines for league that would be great.
I also found that betting favourites blindly you would have been better off than underdogs, but neither is recommended
Another angle I was thinking about was the fact that it is always said that tries are scored off back to back sets, so is there any relation between penalty count and points scored? If that is the case are there any referees (or a combination of referees, now that we have two) that award more penalties than others?
Your thoughts?