dRavidC's NRL 2011

[s2230011]

I havent made a play yet, but there are a number of things going for the Titans here
1. They actually played very decent football in the last 2 games, they beat canberra and I think the game before that was against the Storm, and they played alot better than the scoreline indicated. I actually think they look a hell of alot more dangerous with Prince out.
2. The Tigers should win but motivation to to win by over 20 I dont think is there
3. What home semifinal ?? No Sydney suburban grounds in the semis, it will most likely be a game at SFS or ANZ. So forget home semi, sure they dont want to slip lower than 4th or 5th, but I dont think a home semi for Sydney teams is that attractive
4. i didnt see the Tigers blowing away Panthers last week, they came up with a couple of opportunist tries but let a couple of easy ones too .. Its hard to stay motivated against the weaker sides.

I like the Monday night curse to keep it close

[hawley]

Rather play in Sydney, even at a more "neutral" ground than go on the road to QLD

[GAMBLOR777]

Tigers have a top 4 spot on the line here bro.

THey win this week and next week against the sharks and they have a home final round 1.

I think they win for sure, not so sure about covering that spread.

Maybe if it was the Titans last home game but they still have the Eels next week at home in a wooden spoon playoff match which im sure they are targeting already.

Hawley do you think the tigers win "for sure" because the way the odds have been set, because realistically tigers should never be a 1.08 favourite

[hawley]

Hawley do you think the tigers win "for sure" because the way the odds have been set, because realistically tigers should never be a 1.08 favourite

I think they are almost a certainty to win but as always there is no value in $1.08.

Do you think they win for sure?

No NRL team should ever be $1.08 though.

[kingsr]

Nrl clubs have the choice to play at their home grounds with a top 4 finish! Last year for example dragons played their semi at kogarah even though the nrl offered them 100k to play at homebush, they chose kogarah cos it gives them a HUGE advantage! Don't kid yourself that a top 4 finish isn't valuable!

[kingsr]

I think the odds are right.

[GAMBLOR777]

I think they are almost a certainty to win but as always there is no value in $1.08.

Do you think they win for sure?

No NRL team should ever be $1.08 though.

no definately not, and I'm sure the bookies don't either

The price it set that way because of public perception I guess

but don't sleep on the titans, they have heart.

[GAMBLOR777]

I see alot of people on the titans today though, which is worrying

[s2230011]

I think you will find the rules for home grounds have changed this year, thats what I understand anyway, that was the whole Gasniers last game at Kogarah question, and he said he had no idea that the rules changed either.

No doubt It is still valuable to finish higher up the table, but the most likely scenrio atm is that the Dragons and Tigers will meet in week 1, if thats the case the game will be played either at the SFS or ANZ. All I am saying surely the Tigers would have been a little more motivated if they were a chance to play this game at Leichardt or Campbelltown.

[kingsr]

I'm not sure that info is correct (in regards to home ground). Top 4 is still huge irrespective of home ground advantage, could mean the difference between being eliminated week 1 of finals if you lose 1st game.

[s2230011]

Here is the link

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/nrl/mark-gasnier-says-top-nrl-teams-should-enjoy-advantage-of-home-finals/story-e6frfgbo-1226098668070

In the case of two NSW teams, 4th or 5th on the ladder means nothing. I think the NRL didnt make a good decision there.

Anyway ... enough of this .. what does everyone like for tonight? The over looks like its getting hammered on tab

[hawley]

I only made my comment because I just played with the ladder predictor really quickly and with the Tigers losing tonight I found one situation with them finishing 6th and facing the Broncos which im sure they would be keen to avoid.

Anyway I played the over 41.5 small for a bit of action. I like Titans to cover the spread but wont play it.

[kingsr]

Gallop must've been pissed when he pleaded with the dragons to play their semi at a bigger stadium and they rejected him even after offering them 100k! I believe that's why the rule was introduced.

I'm liking the titans line but can't pull the trigger like hawley.

[benrama]

I've not seen one large spread covered this season, however this feels like a potential trap. Titans have lost by 20 or more 8 times season, that's once every three games. That includes losses by that margin to Knights, Sharks, Souths and Bulldogs, all teams that you say are worse than the Tigers. On the flip side they have kept it close against all the top sides when on their game and beat Tigers earlier in the season.

Do they have any motivation here tonight? I doubt it. What stops them giving up if they fall behind early?

I think the over is the much better bet, can't see either team laying it on the line defensively.

[Bazz27]

Chasing my loses boys on cats n ess multis.
Going 10/units @1.85 on titans pts total Over/11.5, surely they can cross n convert once in each of these halves !!

[Shifty107]

Ive got $100 on the Titans +21.5 and Under 42.5 @ $4.

Too many people on the over for my liking and i am hoping for a tough defensive effort for both teams.

[dRavidC]

NRL 29/8

Game: Wests vs Gold Coast

Bet: Under 22 1st half LOSS

Bet 2: Wests -11.5 & Over 24.5 2nd half LOSS


2011 NRL Season Record: 71 - 43 - 1 (62.28%)

[GAMBLOR777]

tigers getting it done, looks like most of SBR were on the titans tonight

[hawley]

tigers getting it done, looks like most of SBR were on the titans tonight

What are you on?

This one is sort of shaping up as a backdoor cover either way, especially if both sides trade garbage tries late in teh game

[GAMBLOR777]

I ended up taking tigers -20.5 and titans TT under 11.5

sweating it out but I just couldn't take the other side with everyone on them aswell, not my style

[hawley]

Good stuff, im on the over which just cashed

Titans should of scored a few times down the Tigers end but their execution was woeful

[GAMBLOR777]

nice hit hawley

cash the spread, just hoping titans don't score anymore

[hawley]

You got it bro good stuff

[GAMBLOR777]

Just glad I changed my mind, the deal breaker was when this guy posted:

Chasing my loses boys on cats n ess multis.
Going 10/units @1.85 on titans pts total Over/11.5, surely they can cross n convert once in each of these halves !!

love fading people on tilt

bad luck bro, but thanks for the heads up

[MrXYZ]

Just glad I changed my mind, the deal breaker was when this guy posted:

Originally Posted by Bazz27
Chasing my loses boys on cats n ess multis.
Going 10/units @1.85 on titans pts total Over/11.5, surely they can cross n convert once in each of these halves !!

love fading people on tilt

bad luck bro, but thanks for the heads up

Nice hit Gamblor. A tough beat for him though, with Titans bombing that try.

[dRavidC]

NRL 2/9

Game: Newcastle vs Souths

Bet: Under 20.5 1st half LOSS

Bet 2: Souths -2.5 & O 23.5 WON

Game: St George vs Penrith

Bet: St George -12 WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 73 - 44 - 1 (62.39%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 3/9

Game: New Zealand vs North Qld

Bet: New Zealand -3 1st half WON

Game: Gold Coast vs Parramatta

Bet: Parramatta -2

[GAMBLOR777]

nice one

[dRavidC]

AFL 3/9 Game: New Zealand vs North Qld Bet: New Zealand -3 1st half WON Game: Gold Coast vs Parramatta Bet: Parramatta -2 WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 75 - 44 - 1 (63.03%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 4/9
Very profitable weekend let's hope we can finish it off with a BANG!!

Game: Canterbury vs Canberra

Bet 1: Canterbury 13+ WON

Who can't beat the raiders. Even the titans did by 8! Expecting dogs to completely destroy the raiders, send ryan out on a high and give that 90 point d/f required a run for its money. Maybe i was exaggerating a bit with "run for its money" but nonetheless i see a 20 point at the very least.

Bet 2: Canterbury -6.5 2nd half WON

Game: Brisbane vs Manly

Bet: Brisbane M/L (parlayed with bet 1 above) WON

There's no way Brisbane will lose, especially since this is Lockyer's last regular nrl season match of his career. But I'm not sure if they'll be able to destroy manly. Manly might be be down some key players but they still have DCE and have massive depth in their squad.

2011 NRL Season Record: 78 - 44 - 1 (63.93%)

[Domestic]

Square as hell, but I'm taking the under 50.5 in the Can/Cant game.

[dRavidC]

Square as hell, but I'm taking the under 50.5 in the Can/Cant game.

unlucky there mate. after the 1st half, the under looked like it was gonna win but then they played zero defence in the last 20 minutes where 20 points were scored.

[hawley]

I had Bulldogs -10.5, I cant believe we cashed those plays. Two tries in the last 5 minutes.

Nice

[kingsr]

Anyone know why there's money coming for rooster??

[hawley]

Anyone know why there's money coming for rooster??

My only thoughts are Storm have nothing to really play for so may rest some of the stars?