dRavidC's NRL 2011

[Brian891]

any leans on today's game?

[dRavidC]

NRL 1/7

Game: Parramatta vs Brisbane

Bet: Parramatta 1-13 Margin

This is my early lean for this game. I haven't locked it in yet, gonna wait till closer to tip-off time so stay tuned here as I might be changing my play.

UPDATE: LOCKED IN

2011 NRL Season Record: 45 - 25 - 1 (64.29%)

[GAMBLOR777]

good luck man I like parra here too, dunno bout margins...

[dRavidC]

NRL 2/7

Game: Penrith vs Canterbury

Bet: Canterbury M/L (S/U) LOSS

2011 NRL Season Record: 45 - 26 - 1 (63.38%)

[dRavidC]

the most fustrating thing about this play was that I actually was leaning Penrith but I decided to go with the flow and pick the bulldogs...

[dRavidC]

NRL 3/7

Game: Cronulla vs South Sydney

Bet: Under 19.5 1st half LOSS

2011 NRL Season Record: 45 - 27 - 1 (62.5%)

[dRavidC]

when it's a bad weekend it's a really a bad weekend

[diop]

lol u kno ur doing well when you can have a really bad weekend and have a laugh about it

[dRavidC]

haha thanks diop. there isn't much i can do but have a laugh about it and move on. there's no point getting angry/sad about it since this is the world of betting - anything can happen. all i can do is do my research and make educated guesses/predictions.

anyways here's my play for origin

Origin 6/7

New South Wales @ Queensland U 34.5 LOSS

Game 1 total was 28. Game 2 total reached 26. Yet the total posted is at 34.5. Should be perfect conditions tonight, maybe some winds picking up but if there's anything we've learnt from this origin series it is that both teams are closely matched (meaning we won't see blow-outs) and that the defence has been superb and is the point of focus from both sides.

2011 NRL Season Record: 45 - 28 - 1 (61.64%)

[GAMBLOR777]

wow I hope for your sake both teams have a scoreless 2nd half....what a game

[dRavidC]

wow yeah some really costly lapses in defence leading to tries. but at the end of the day, i would trade watching a "good" game of footy for a winning bet any day of the week

[dRavidC]

NRL 8/7

Game: Parramatta vs Wests

Bet: Under 19.5 2nd half LOSS

2011 NRL Season Record: 45 - 29 - 1 (60.81%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 9/7

Game: Cronulla vs Canberra

Bet: Cronulla -2.5 WON

Bet 2: Cronulla -2 2nd half WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 47 - 29 - 1 (61.84%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 10/7

Game: Sydney vs Penrith

Bet: Sydney M/L WON

Game: Manly vs South Sydney

Bet: Manly M/L (parlaying it with above play) WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 49 - 29 - 1 (62.82%)

[NEW_WORLD]

good luck with your plays.

[dRavidC]

thanks NEW_WORLD

NRL 11/7

Game: Newcastle vs NOrth Queensland

Bet: TBA

Just a heads up, before you guys all jump on Newcastle -12 or 13+, Newcastle have not blown anyone out (i.e. won by 13+) this year apart from the panthers this year which was in round 1. Though on the other side of the ledger, Thurston (and possibly payne) is out and consequently so is a lot of their offence. The last 7 Newcastle games have been decided by single digits. The fact that the Knights couldn't even blow out a otu-of-sorts Roosters outfit at home is making me lean towards Newcastle 1-8 1st half or Newcastle 1-12 (full game margin).

[binomial]

Looks the strongest side Newcastle have fielded for a fair while, may have some points in them.

On the other hand with Thurston talking about being back in four weeks, cowboys will be keen not to trash their currently healthy differential.

Tough one to call.

[sportscash]

Well i am considering Knights 13+ is anyone with me

[kingsr]

I'm liking the nth qld line and new 1-12 margin

[Bazz27]

Thats a good knights stat dRavidc about no real blow-outs, c/bet total now @1.80 for O/38.5 pts, not sure if cows have many pts in them 2nite, may look at the unders, 6 conv tries + 3 seems alot n whats knights like in nite games..

[dRavidC]

yeah no play on the total. this game could be a massive under game or could be a defence-less and error-riddled game like roosters and panthers. this game could also resemble the one between the cowboys and warriors. warriors were huge underdogs, outplayed the hosts in the 1st half and the first few minutes of the 2nd half, before melting down and literally giving up in defence, leading to a blowout.

i'll have my play up in half an hour from now.

[Bazz27]

Now out to 39.5 @1.85

[dRavidC]

NRL 11/7

Game: Newcastle vs North Queensland

Bet: Newcastle 1-8 1st half LOSS

The line and the total are suggesting a blowout and so is the public, whom are all over Newcastle here. If this was the dragons/sea eagles then I would most certainly agree. Cowboys have been blown out twice this season (<13 margin loss) and they have come against the teams mentioned above. The one against Manly did not feature Thurston and to be honest they looked listless in attack. Newcastle are in great form and have won their past few games but I think Newcastle lack that "clinical" or "finishing" touch which is why they're beating teams by single digits and not double digits. As i've mentioned above, the only 13+ margin they've had was against the Panthers in round 1 and that was away from home. But who knows the Knights could dominate this Cowboys side and I wouldn't be all that surprised. But if they do that piling on the points and that's a BIG IF, i think it'll come in the 2nd half. I think the 1st half will be a close affair with Knights grabbing/holding onto a lead. The cowboys know they won't be without Thurston for a period of time so they will have to learn to win games without him. I expect players like Morgan and Sergeyaro to step up and possibly play above themselves. With such a massive attacking option absent, they'll have to rely on their defence to get them across the line and I expect them to play their hearts out in defence at least for the 1st half.

Bet 2: Newcastle -6.5 2nd half LOSS

2011 NRL Season Record: 49 - 31 - 1 (61.25%)

[sportscash]

Gone with Knights to score 21-30 points $3.00 good luck everyone

[dRavidC]

NRL 11/7

Game: South Sydney vs Sydney

Bet: Sydney M/L LOSS

A real tough one here. South Sydney played pretty well against Manly before being finished off in the backend of the game. Sydney played an exciting and "nothing-to-lose" brand of footy against Penrith and not only was it entertaining but it paid off resulting in a rare win. The equation for the Roosters to make the finals is simple. Win all your remaining games. I think the belief and urgency in the Roosters camp can get them over the line against an undermanned under-strength South Sydney side. Whilst I don't think the Roosters will make it to September footy, I think they can at least make a fight of it and i'll be ready to jump off their bandwagon when they lose game.

Game: North Queensland vs Wests

Bet: Wests -3.5 WON

On form, you have to lean North Queensland who not only have a brilliant home record (haven't lost at home since round 2 this year) even without Thurston. Missing their star playmaker, they played so well to dismantle the knights at Newcastle. The tigers have been plain dreadful ever since that miracle win against the warriors. I think that something has to happen here for the tigers - and I think Marshall will have a lot more involvement than he did last game and expect him to have a big game. He won't get a better opportunity than this to be honest. Similar to the Roosters, if the tigers lose this game then i'll be ready to jump off their bandwagon as well.

2011 NRL Season Record: 50 - 32 - 1 (60.98%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 17/7

Game: Canberra vs Melbourne

Bet: Melbourne M/L WON

Value is on the raiders here but I think Melbourne get across the line here mainly because of the "revenge" factor. They've already lost one to the raiders at home and the storm have not lost back-to-back games to the raiders in 11 seasons. Having said that, think this game could be close mainly due to the "urgency" factor from the raiders.

Game: Newcastle vs Manly

Bet: Manly M/L WON

Most of Newcastle's offence last week ran through Gidley and with all their opportunities they could only muster 2 tries against the defensive capability of North Queensland. Now we're expecting them to score more tries and without Gidley against a full-strength Manly. Not happening, well not today anyway. Manly are just "in the zone" right now and can't see them dropping this game. For some odd reason, think this game will be a lot closer than what everyone thinks.

2011 NRL Season Record: 52 - 32 - 1 (61.90%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 18/7

Game: St George vs Cronulla

Bet: St George +9 / +13 HT/FT Margin Double WON (sealed in the first 19 minutes )

Bet 2: St George / St George HT/FT Double WON (sealed in the first 19 minutes )

Bet 3: St George -4.5 & Over 18.5 2nd half WON (boy oh boy that was lucky. soward try was pretty much gifted and lucky penalty at the end allowed the dragons to score the try that won this bet.)

What a game we have for Monday night footy. Both sides are at full strength. Cronulla have won 4 straight games in convincing fashion and now they take on premiership favorites St George. The rise of halfback Townsend has really coincided with the Sharks recent surge in form but to be honest, they have been against the bottom teams in this competition (i.e. bulldogs, titans, rabbitohs, raiders). However, the good thing here is that the sharks did not really have a lot of trouble in any of those four matches and won comfortably. The problem here is that they face a fired-up St George team who will be out for revenge after losing to the boys from the Shire in round 2. Add in the fact that this will be Gasnier's last game in Kogarah and you have some real motivation for St George. What will be even more worrying for the Sharks is that the dragons played a full strength manly side and ended up destroying them by 18!!! So if the dragons can beat manly by 18, how much will they beat cronulla by? All of St George's wins (except the one against West Tigers) have been by 13+. The only times they've lost at home was when their B-side was playing due to origin and injury. Melbourne and Manly have already flexed their muscles this week with thumpings over the raiders and knights respectively. Will St George do the same? Yessss Sirrrrrrrrrrr.


2011 NRL Season Record: 55 - 32 - 1 (63.22%)

[dRavidC]

bets locked in

[dRavidC]

bet 3 added!!!!

[dRavidC]

all 3 bets made on the same game cashed!!

well done to all who were on the dragons tonight and those that followed at least one of my bets .

[jididii]

congrats

If possible,next time just 5 min earlier,many of the european books closes the bets on the hour.
Was waiting,but just missed it

Anyways great capping

Jididii

[dRavidC]

thanks jididii oh i had no idea. next time i'll post my bets earlier. sorry about that. i actually spent a fair bit of time researching and thinking about whether to go dragons 1-12 or dragons 13+. luckily i went with the right decision in what was a last-minute choice really.

[dRavidC]

NRL 22/7

Game: Canterbury vs Parramatta

Bet: Canterbury M/L WON

Everything points to Parramatta here. Parramatta have been playing a lot better football than their solitary win in 5 weeks suggest. They should of won last week leading by 6 with 10 seconds to go but a controversial ref decision turned the game on its head and consequently the eels momentum. They have only registered a solitary win in their past 5 matches but to be honest, their football has been outright awful - their attack lacks direction and flair without ennis and their defence hasn't been that great either. Something tells me that the heartbreaking loss against Penrith has to have affected the confidence and mentality of the eels players. Something also tells me that the resigning of Barba and the reshuffling and "shakeup" of the dogs lineup could be the motivation that the bulldogs need to lift. They certainty have the players, they just lack execution which comes down to a lack of confidence.

Game: Melbourne vs Brisbane

Bet: Melbourne HT/FT LOSS

Can't see Melbourne dropping this game to Brisbane at home, especially given the form that they are in. Add in the fact that Melbourne are such great frontrunners and you have yourself a heap of value in this bet.

2011 NRL Season Record: 56 - 33 - 1 (62.92%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 23/7

Game: Gold Coast vs North Queensland

Bet: Gold coast -1 LOSS (trap line...)

Game: Wests vs Sydney

Bet: Wests M/L (2 UNITS) WON

Game: Cronulla vs Newcastle

Bet: Cronulla -1 LOSS (trap line...)

2011 NRL Season Record: 57 - 35 - 1 (61.96%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 24/7

Game: South Sydney vs New Zealand

Bet: New Zealand -1.5 WON

South Sydney will be the more desperate outfit here but they are playing a full strength Warriors side and their struggle to beat an out-of-sorts team in the roosters has me leaning Warriors to cover this short number.

Game: Penrith vs Manly

Bet: Manly M/L (parlaying it with above play) WON


2011 NRL Season Record: 59 - 35 - 1 (62.77%)