dRavidC's NRL 2011

[kingsr]

My only thoughts are Storm have nothing to really play for so may rest some of the stars?

Smells that way, otherwise I would've thought money would have come for Melb....I'll wait till kick off to see line ups.

[dRavidC]

wow wish i was on the roosters M/L when they were at 7.5 (didn't end up making a play for the final game of the season). should of known mel were gonna rest their stars and tank this game.

anywho, it's been a fantastic day with dogs scoring off an intercept in the final minute to get our 13+ margin lucky backdoor cover and brisbane managed to seek out a win. hope you guys got on board.

now onto the finals!!!

[MrXYZ]

Roosters would've had a decent run in the finals IMO, sorry to see them miss the top 8. I'd rate them above Cowboys and Knights.

[dRavidC]

Roosters would've had a decent run in the finals IMO, sorry to see them miss the top 8. I'd rate them above Cowboys and Knights.

that's a big call there. If you take a look at the teams they have beaten during this late run, they have been teams that are out of finals contention or were undermanned and had nothing to play for (i.e. storm). I don't think any team under the Warriors on the ladder are capable of beating Storm or Manly at home.

[benrama]

I still think you all are underestimating the cowboys, but we'll see.

[hawley]

Cowboys are done.

But no way in hell the Roosters would do better than them.

A large part of their recent success is the fact they are playing with no pressure on them, they can go out throw the ball around and no worry about the results.

[kingsr]

Agree cowboys are done...Any money on them to win premiership is dead money.

Hawley, tigers are 2.10 dogs

[hawley]

Agree cowboys are done...Any money on them to win premiership is dead money.

Hawley, tigers are 2.10 dogs

Are the Tigers getting up?

Big win streak, big comeback victory against the Dragons last time they played.

Dragons hammered the Panthers and snuck past the Warriors but have been poor lately.

Tough one.

[MrXYZ]

My early lean is Dragons in this one.

Cowboys played some of their best footy when JT was injured & haven't been the same since his return. But this is the finals & elite players like him can turn a game with one or two plays.

Thanks for the opinion on the Roosters, I like how in our end of SBR we can express our ideas & disagree without the crap that goes on in the MLB threads.

[hawley]

My early lean is Dragons in this one.

Cowboys played some of their best footy when JT was injured & haven't been the same since his return. But this is the finals & elite players like him can turn a game with one or two plays.

Thanks for the opinion on the Roosters, I like how in our end of SBR we can express our ideas & disagree without the crap that goes on in the MLB threads.

My post came across pretty rude, didnt intend that.

JT is definitely not 100%, the fact the Cowboys only managed 6 points against the Warriors proves this. Although their defence is much improved the Cowboys win games by outscoring their opponents.

The Sea Eagles should get up because of their defence, even against the Broncos they had little in attack missing some key players but their defence kept them in the game.

As you said though the Cowboys have some of the most exciting players and Thurston, Bowen, Faifai loa etc can turn a game on its head within 10 minutes as they have done all year.

I really have no idea about the Dragons game, maybe etu 6.5 or a 1-12 bet. Lean towards the under but if I remember correctly the last time they played it was shaping up to go under all match before a few late tries sent it over. The total will only be around 36 - 38 so not too many points to give away.

[benrama]

hawley - don't worry mate, I make brash posts from time to time as well, at least you put some thought/analysis behind your point of view, wheares kingsr is often just a step beyond trolling

NQ gets their experienced lock Johnson back for the game against the Eagles, and they missed him against the Warriors. Ironically their defense is doing OK at the moment, they just need to get their offense back on track. They deserve to start underdogs and books have the line about right. NQ have to be motivated by the fact that if they win here, and the other top 3 teams win they have a home final.

Tigers have all the momentum but they are still prone to poor ball control and lapses in concentration. A Bennett coached team in the finals is always a tough contender but it really feels like it's the Tigers year to go deep in the finals. This will be a close game, almost certainly, and a 1-12 bet on both teams is one thing I'm looking at.

The Brisbane game I actually see as one-sided, I think Warriors will crumble once again in a finals atmosphere, and the Lockyear swansong factor will keep the Broncos fired up and switched on. Losing Thaiday is not ideal, but all teams have missing players this time of year.

Don't have a great read on the Storm but one thing the last month or so has shown is that Knights are good in the 1H, and shithouse in the 2H, so I'm looking to ride that trend in this game as well, perhaps making a 2H bet on the Storm at half-time.

[kingsr]

No need to be nasty benrama. We are all here for the same purpose - to make money! I don't know why you see me as trolling? I hardly post my plays in here and when I do I give reasoning for it, like my last play was bulldogs line and I gave a very valid reason for that! Just because I think your nth qld play is DEAD MONEY, there's no need to take swipes at me.

[benrama]

Don't take my comment too seriously - all I'm saying is the majority of your posts are light on the gravy, that's fine each to their own in what they say on a forum. We keep things pretty civilised in here compared to some of the cess pools elsewhere on SBR.

But look calling NQ dead money adds not much to the discussion, does it? Why are they dead money? What are the key reasons, stats, motivations, matchups etc that make it so? Remember - I only need to win one of these bets about once every two decades to make them profitable.

But if you like, offer me your dead money odds for NQ to win and I'll put a 50 point wager on it just for fun!

[kingsr]

A point wager? LOL dude I'll give you my points for free! I play with money not points! If you were in sydney I'll gladly play bookie with you.

As for my posts, I don't really have time to write essays on forums. I just feel there's far more superior teams and I feel that there's a problem with JT (maybe something to do with betting allegation from last year). I just don't feel they are good enough to take the crown, finals are won on defense to which they have none.

[dRavidC]

i actually think we have a bit of value in the warriors. i think that early finals exit last year has really taught them a lesson and think they have a big chance. they will treat this like an elimination final. they finished 5th last year and still found themselves knocked out. brisbane may of won the battle winning their last h2h by 1 but i think the warriors will win the war in what should be an exciting game.

the dragons west tigers is a real toughie. dragons if they play at the very best can knock off the tigers. but the tigers are in sublime form and it's hard to see them getting beat by mel/man let alone the dragons. the play looks to be UNDER, pending on what the total is set at.

melbourne and manly look like they're gonna coast through their week 1 finals but i don't really have a grasp on these games. might have to do a bit of research first.

[benrama]

kingsr, I never know what to do with these damn points, gave them to red cross via the sbr store last time, and since then have gone for 8 game parlay miracles to get an iPad. So yea not really that interested either on second thought Good luck on your finals plays, I'll be sure to remind you if NQ make it in the grand final, don't worry

@david - I'm thinking Dragons for the 1H could be a solid bet for the same reason as the Knights, in general - Warriors game aside - Dragons have been a shocking 2H team.

I tipped Warriors as a dark horse earlier in the year but just not sure if they'll be mentally up for finals, especially with the RWC taking all the attention in their home country. They are the side I have the least handle on - can't pronounce half their bloody team

I'm going to review last years finals and keep an eye on team news during the week, research in finals time pays off more than any other time of the year.

[kingsr]

Haha I'll be reminding you when they are eliminated

[dRavidC]

interesting point benrama. similarly to warriors-broncos, west tigers stole the game from the dragons and something tells me dragons will rise to the occasion.

[MrXYZ]

Warriors had a tendency to self destruct earlier in the season. They've struck some excellent form & have the size & talent to make a charge, but how will they cope with a high pressure situation in a packed out Suncorp? The Broncos scraped home in their last meeting but their intensity level might be too much for the visitors this time.

[hawley]

warriors Broncos under.

[IDunno89]

What's the game total @?

[hawley]

What's the game total @?

Not sure bet365 doesnt have it yet.

Would imagine it will be between 40 and 42

[IDunno89]

Everyone here is brissy are righting the warriors off... They believe it's going to be 1 sided... There obviously just being bias cause I can't see it being all 1 way traffic

[kingsr]

Everyone here is brissy are righting the warriors off... They believe it's going to be 1 sided... There obviously just being bias cause I can't see it being all 1 way traffic

Everyone probably expects a meltdown under the big stage, because of the young inexperienced stars they have in the team ie Locke.

I'm expecting maybe Manly halves (Foran, cherry evans) could buckle under the big stage too...we'll have to wait and see..

[IDunno89]

Yeh there is not a lot of finals experience in there team... But even then hard to see the warriors conpletly falling apart

[dRavidC]

yeah there's just something about this year's warriors team that tells me that they won't be exiting after week 1 like they did last year. there's a reason why they priced as they are imo.

[dRavidC]

NRL 9/9

Game: Wests vs St George

Bet: Over 16 1st half WON

just had a look back at my stats to find i'm on an 8 bet winning streak!!!!

2011 NRL Season Record: 79 - 44 - 1 (64.23%)

[dRavidC]

Lucky win there, if it wasn't for marshall flukey try early on this would not of gone over 16

[hawley]

Agree cowboys are done...Any money on them to win premiership is dead money.

Hawley, tigers are 2.10 dogs

Yea buddy

[kingsr]

Love it hawley!!! Jumped on tigers 3.60 halftime! Cos we know how tigers roll in the 2nd half of games woohoooo

[dRavidC]

NRL 10/9

currently on an 8 bet winning streak. let's hope it continues to 9 tonight.

Game: Brisbane vs New Zealand

Bet: New Zealand 1-12 LOSS (streak finally ends =[)

Brisbane won the battle earlier in the season but I think New Zealand learn from last year's early finals exit to beat the Brisbane side missing Hoffman and Thaiday. Can't see a blowout in this so playing 1-12 for more juicy odds.

Game: Manly vs North Queensland

Bet: Manly -6 2nd half WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 80 - 45 - 1 (64.00%)

[dRavidC]

sorry for the new zealand pick. did not think that the warriors would play pretty much their worst game of the season on their most important night. really hope the knights fold 2morro cause there is so much potential in that warriors outfit.

anyway we saw manly show its premiership credentials with a 42 point 2nd half to crush a hapless cowboys side. will we see the same from melbourne? something tells me yes.

[kingsr]

No need to apologise, we all know its gambling, cant win em all (even though lately we are lol).

Warriors will have another crack, hopefully better crack this time and hopefully Manu doesnt have butter fingers lol. Love watching warriors and tigers play, so entertaining! Melb should win comfortable but im not sure they can do it to the tune of 40 points...alot of points from bris and manly came late after their oppostion had given up.

[benrama]

Warriors were as bad as Broncos were good, and although I think they get a 2nd roll of the dice, I don't see much changing. I really think you can't underestimate the fact that the RWC really has stolen their thunder. Imagine being national team in the finals, the biggest stage of the season, and your whole country could hardly give a shit. It is a real waste of potential on that side though, agreed.

Manly showed their class in the 2nd half and NQ disintegrated, RIP future bet, I expected more from your kingsr!

Looking at the Knights 1H today as my final play for the weekend. I think the Storm roll 2nd half but Knights come out raring to go; and similarly to Warriors I wonder if the Storm will be affected by all the attention the AFL game will get today - probably not as much, they are used to it

[dRavidC]

NRL 11/9

Game: Melbourne vs Newcastle

Bet: Melbourne -10.5 LOSS (loss by half a point! but oh well a small dent to what has truly been a magical weekend)