dRavidC's NRL 2011

[dRavidC]

NRL 25/7

Game: Canberra vs St George

Bet: St George / St George HT/FT Double (3 UNITS) LOSS

Bet 2: St George 9+ / St George 13+ Ht/FT Margin Double (1 UNIT) LOSS

Bet 3: St George -4.5 2nd half (1 UNIT) LOSS

The Raiders have won the last 5 head-to-head matches between these two sides yet the bookies are giving the raiders a massive start at +8? There's a reason why they have...

2011 NRL Season Record: 59 - 38 - 1 (60.82%)

[dRavidC]

just a heads up on the brisbane v cronulla game.

gallen might be playing in this one. if gallen doesn't play, then brisbane -12.5 is the play. but if gallen does play, it's worth having a looking at the +12.5 points .

[hawley]

Gallen is playing

Interesting to see the line hasnt adjusted despite him being confirmed

[dRavidC]

gallen's not playing! => http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/spo...-1226104195015

brisbane -12.5 looks like the play here! cronulla attack didn't look like scoring a try in that whole 2nd half against the knights despite having decent field position. don't think they'll be scoring too much tonight. and brisbane will be out to win by as much as possible to get their +/- differential up since they'll need it if they are to clinch that top 4 spot.

will post my plays closer to tip-off.

[hawley]

gallen's not playing! => http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/spo...-1226104195015

brisbane -12.5 looks like the play here! cronulla attack didn't look like scoring a try in that whole 2nd half despite having decent field position. don't think they'll be scoring too much tonight. and brisbane will be out to win by as much as possible to get their +/- differential since they'll need it if they are to clinch that top 4 spot.

will post my plays closer to tip-off.

Thanks for posting that!!

The late mail I read this morning had Gallen playing but I suppose not

[dRavidC]

NRL 29/7

Game: Manly vs Wests

Bet: Manly -6

Manly's home record for 2011: 8-0.

Game: Brisbane vs Cronulla

Bet: Brisbane -13.5

Gallen not playing.

[s2230011]

Be careful as mentioned in another thread .. Manly is not playing at Brrokvale .. even though it is a "home" game

[benrama]

Agreed s22, mind you, the other "non-Brookvale" home game they had they beat Brisbane at Lang by 34-10 (yes it was around SOO time)

I think Manly have had only one "bad" lose the whole season that was by 2 points to Souths in Round 4. The other loses to a full strength NQ (by 2 points) and St George on their home ground are no shame at all as these are two of the toughest matchups in league to win.

All that said, I can see Tigers keeping this one close, so I really prefer the Manly/Brisbane parlay at $1.80 for tonight and that's what I'll be personally playing. BOL though David, I think both plays are solid.

[dRavidC]

NRL 30/7

Game: North Queensland vs Penrith

Bet: North Queensland -4

[brad89]

NRL 30/7 Game: North Queensland vs Penrith Bet: North Queensland -4

Can't believe they opened that game at PK

[dRavidC]

NRL 29/7 Game: Manly vs Wests Bet: Manly -6 LOSS Manly's home record for 2011: 8-0. Game: Brisbane vs Cronulla Bet: Brisbane -13.5 WON Gallen not playing.

NRL 30/7 Game: North Queensland vs Penrith Bet: North Queensland -4 WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 61 - 39 - 1 (61.00%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 31/7

Game: New Zealand vs Canberra

Bet: New Zealand -6.5 WON

Bet 2: New Zealand -5.5 2nd half WON

Game: Newcastle vs Gold Coast

Bet: Newcastle M/L (parlaying with above play) WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 64 - 39 - 1 (62.14%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 1/8

Game: Parramatta vs Melbourne

Bet: Under 18.5 1st half WON

Line has rapidly dropped from -8.5 to -6 Melbourne due to Storm injuries (Widdop, Duffie, Many & Kostjasyn). But can you really back a Parramatta side who have lost two consecutive golden point matches in a row against teams that have barely half the attacking capabilities of Melbourne (Penrith and Canterbury). Also add in the fact that the loss to the bulldogs have completely wiped out any hopes of them reaching the top 8 so will lack of motivation and interest factor in this game? In their past 7 games, the eels have only beaten the tigers and drawn with the dragons. The storm on the other hand are on a 8 game winning streak but one has to think that they are bound to have a letdown game at some point in the season. Could this be the one?

2011 NRL Season Record: 65 - 39 - 1 (62.50%)

[GAMBLOR777]

awaiting your play dravid, let's get it

[diop]

aren't there a heap of ppl out for melbourne?

[kingsr]

aren't there a heap of ppl out for melbourne?

4 players out but no big deal for me as the key positions 1, 7, 9 are Cam Smith, Slater, Cronk are fit....me and my mum could play besides these players and win. Dont be fooled by the outs.

[dRavidC]

play posted. not very confident with the line might have a look at it come time for a 2nd half bet. i just think that the bookies know something that we don't. are Widdop, Duffie, Many & Kostjasyn really worth 2.5 points? i think not.

melbourne have pretty much the best defence in the league and the lost of the above players shouldn't affect it. parra have nothing to play for and might throw the ball around but I think Melbourne's defence can negate it. Also Melbourne characteristically play the percentages in the 1st half before unleashing in the 2nd half.

[jididii]

Thanks for the play! Gl

Jididii

[Bazz27]

i agree Rdavidc - 5/units on highest scoring half being the 2nd half @1.85

[dRavidC]

easy winner cashed! congrats to all those who followed.

[GAMBLOR777]

NRL 1/8

Game: Parramatta vs Melbourne

Bet: Under 18.5 1st half

brilliant call brother

you got anything lined up in the 2H?

[rumple]

Nice choke job, ruined my +200 ml

[dRavidC]

brilliant call brother

you got anything lined up in the 2H?

nah i didn't have one sorry gamblor777

i was leaning melbourne -5.5 2nd half but wasn't confident enough to lock it in. even though melbourne did win in the end, i would call it a "steal" rather than a "win"

[dRavidC]

NRL 5/8
(early leans. haven't locked these in yet. will finalise them 30 minutes before kick-off)

Game: Canterbury vs North Queensland

Bet: Canterbury -1

This match just has points written all over it. You have a side who can't defuse bombs (in the Bulldogs) up against a side who rely on outscoring their opponents rather than grinding it out through their defence. The total is set at 44.5, which shows that the bookies see this game go over. So does mean the over should be an easy winner? Maybe, but there are factors that are putting me off it. For a start, this match is effectively an elimination final for them. Win here and they play on next week. Lose and they can say goodbye to their 2011 season. Considering how much they've coughed off under the high ball and how it costed them a win last week, one would have to think that they've addressed this during the week. On the other side of the ditch are the Cowboys and they have been unbelievably good without their star playmaker, winning 3 of their 4 games without Thurston. Despite that, I still think that their form away from home isn't as strong as their form at home. Just take a look at their performance on the road against the Titans. They had a shocker of a 1st half but luckily trailed 14 - 6. To say the very least, they were lucky to come away with the win with Gold Coast capitulating in the 2nd half. But back to the game at hand, I think the bulldogs can tighten up their defence, address their mistakes from last week and come with with a win to keep their slim finals chances alive.

Game: Wests vs St George

Bet: St George -2 1st half

The resurgence in form for the West Tigers and two straight 2nd half capitulations for the Dragons have them priced at just -4. But in those two 2nd half meltdowns, they had stellar 1st halves. The dragons are just too good of a side to lose 3 games straight and I'm inclined to think that Bennett and his dragons will get their campaign back on track this week with a win. But until the dragons can show me that they can play 80 minutes again, I can't pull the trigger on the full game line. Instead, I'm going to stick with the 1st half line.

[dRavidC]

NRL 5/8
(early leans. haven't locked these in yet. will finalise them 30 minutes before kick-off)

Game: Canterbury vs North Queensland

Bet: Canterbury -1 WON

This match just has points written all over it. You have a side who can't defuse bombs (in the Bulldogs) up against a side who rely on outscoring their opponents rather than grinding it out through their defence. The total is set at 44.5, which shows that the bookies see this game go over. So does mean the over should be an easy winner? Maybe, but there are factors that are putting me off it. For a start, this match is effectively an elimination final for them. Win here and they play on next week. Lose and they can say goodbye to their 2011 season. Considering how much they've coughed off under the high ball and how it costed them a win last week, one would have to think that they've addressed this during the week. On the other side of the ditch are the Cowboys and they have been unbelievably good without their star playmaker, winning 3 of their 4 games without Thurston. Despite that, I still think that their form away from home isn't as strong as their form at home. Just take a look at their performance on the road against the Titans. They had a shocker of a 1st half but luckily trailed 14 - 6. To say the very least, they were lucky to come away with the win with Gold Coast capitulating in the 2nd half. But back to the game at hand, I think the bulldogs can tighten up their defence, address their mistakes from last week and come with with a win to keep their slim finals chances alive.

Game: Wests vs St George

Bet: St George -2 1st half PUSH

The resurgence in form for the West Tigers and two straight 2nd half capitulations for the Dragons have them priced at just -4. But in those two 2nd half meltdowns, they had stellar 1st halves. The dragons are just too good of a side to lose 3 games straight and I'm inclined to think that Bennett and his dragons will get their campaign back on track this week with a win. But until the dragons can show me that they can play 80 minutes again, I can't pull the trigger on the full game line. Instead, I'm going to stick with the 1st half line.

2011 NRL Season Record: 66 - 39 - 1 (62.86%)

[dRavidC]

NRL 7/8

Game: Newcastle vs Canberra

Bet: Newcastle -8.5 WON

2011 NRL Season Record: 66 - 39 - 1 (63.21%)

[GAMBLOR777]

Knights lookin sharp coming into HT

let's cash this bro

[dRavidC]

NRL 8/8

Game: Souths vs Parramatta

Just looked back in this thread to find that I'm currently on a 8 bet winning streak!!!

Bet: South Sydney -2 1st half WON (easy easy easy easy winner)

This game looks to be the hardest one to bet for the week but not to the extent where it becomes "unbettable" so I think i'll be taking a crack at this one. The rabbitohs are a good team when they're on song. But when they're bad, they are REALLY REALLY bad. They've been so inconsistent and that the fact that most of their stars are sitting on the sidelines has to be part of the reason. But even still, they have been moments where they commit school boy errors, which is just unacceptable in the NRL and unfortunately there have been way too many of those this season. Yet somehow they still have a faint hopes of a top 8 finish if they win all their remaining games. The eels are done for 2011! Forget the titans and the raiders, the eels have to be the biggest disappointment of 2011. They have lost so many close games from winning positions, that it is no longer funny. In fact it's rather sad and I don't think any positive can come out of it, despite what coach Kearney says. The game against the Storm just summed up their season. They led 18-0 with less than 20 to play, including one bombed try by Hayne. It turned out to be costly, with the Storm putting on 4 unanswered tries to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. What positive can you possibly gain from that? "We played footy for 60 odd minutes???" And in the space of 20 minutes, you lost the game????? I just can't see how this eels side are going to gain enough mentality/confidence to put three straight weeks of heartbreaking losses behind them to beat a side who still have finals footy on their mind. However, this is monday night footy so anything goes really...I see two possible scenarios happening in this game: 1. The rabbitohs establish a lead early on and the eels just "lose it" and give up with the rabbitohs prevailing by a comfortable margin. 2. Similar to the titans, the eels are due for a win soon. Of their next 3 games (Manly at home then Wests away), this one is their best chance to win. The eels camp regroup and play with as much intensity as a "finals-bound" side and break their losing streak and consequently the rabbitohs finals aspirations.

2011 NRL Season Record: 68 - 39 - 1 (63.55%)

[jididii]

! Big thanks from me,i have been tailing when possible.

Keep the streak alive!!


Jididii

[nzwarrior]

Agreed... nice write up too, i think if the rabbits can come out fired up early huge margin or else close low scoring game.

[dRavidC]

play added!

remember to check back here at half time as i may be having a 2nd half play!!!

[kingsr]

Reni Matua is out, he's probably been one of their best players over past few weeks

[jididii]

Another ! Well done! Anything for second half?


Jididii

[dRavidC]

yeh 9 bet winning streak!! thanks to all who have kept their faith in me =)

yep got a 2nd half play!!!

correction: nah think i'll pass. but if i had to play south sydney -4.5

[jididii]

okey,ill try small bet on - 37.5 at odds 1.8. Thanks again

Jididii