[moses millsap]

owned, not sure if you will get back in time or not to see this one, but here goes anyways.

J. C. Ferrero -116 (1 unit)

That's for tomorrow, but I'll have my slate of picks for tomorrow up later after some of my matches finish today.

Saw the 2 matches I had so far today came through easily with

Ferrer 6-3, 6-3, 6-3
Baghdatis 6-2, 6-1, 6-2

[moses millsap]

Kirilenko almost knocked off Big Bird for the +775 ticket Sounds like the blisters really got to her in the 3rd, if she was able to convert that GP at 2*-4 to go 3-4, I think Lindsay would've crumbled, but oh well...

Don't know what's going on with Simon/ToJo, heard it was a heat delay in their match or something? Not sure if it's postponed.

Got Baghdatis/Nalbandian pending at +104, which I planned to roll over on Blake, but the schedule is all out of wack thanks to the marathon match between Gaudio and Santoro, so now the Jarkko/Bandy match may not even be completed before Blake's match, lol.

[bigboydan]

owned, i know he plays later today. but, i wanted to make sure you saw who i was playing for friday.

[adriano]

i just watched the S. Williams vs. Hantuchova game and saw Serena is FAT. I mean really FAT. She could barely move around the court and this is the twice defending champion?

You don't like Ladyies games guys?

[moses millsap]

i just watched the S. Williams vs. Hantuchova game and saw Serena is FAT. I mean really FAT. She could barely move around the court and this is the twice defending champion?

You don't like Ladyies games guys?

I had Daniela at +239 Been doing rather well on the Women's side this year. I went to bed in anger early last night after Nalbandian fell down 2-6, 0-2 after he had been broken in 4 of his first 5 service games, but saw he came back to win.

Day 5 Recap:

Winners
Ferrer +192
Hantuchova +239
Baghdatis/Nalbandian +104

Losers
Lopez +265 (Not sure if the courts cleared up or if they moved this match to Vodofone and closed the roof b/c of the weather, if it got moved, I'm pissed. Ljubicic is much more devastating indoors. Looks like it was a close one to start, I guess I'll go find out what happened here)
Simon +296
Kirilenko +775

Been a great run in Melbourne, let's keep it going today. The card is rather weak on the men's side. The two "pickem" matchups I can't touch (Hrbaty/Andreev and Kiefer/JCF). Hrbaty's played B2B 5 setters to start, but that is to expected from Dom, and I really don't think fatigue will be an issue with his fitness. On the other hand, you got Andreev who has mind lapses and gives away a few sets and you got a recipe for another chaotic, wild 5 setter, so no money for me there. JCF is definitely the better player than Kiefer on most days, but he's just been so inconsistent lately and from what I saw of his match with Tipsarevic and his comeback was more a result of Tipsy's inability to control himself under the pressure. JCF's groundstrokes were pretty strong though, but I'm not playing it (Good luck on it though BBD).

The dogs for today:
Coria +145 (I can NOT believe I'm backing the weasel here, but here goes)
Horna +120
Chela/Vaidisova +110ish

I'm considering taking Misa K +228 and Benesova +450 too, but still deciding there.

[moses millsap]

Chela/Vaidisova +110ish

Actually, looking at the OOP, I see Vaidisova plays first and Chela plays on the same court following her match, so to get much better odds I'm just going to bet them straight up instead of parlaying them together:

(1) Vaidisova first at -257

and if she wins, bet the new balance from that wager on

(2) Chela whatever his odds are right before the match (currently -206)

[moses millsap]

Vaidisova cruises

Can't believe Horna choked that 5-2 lead in the first, double break, and serving and finds a way to lose in the TB, lol. Hope he doesn't blow this 4-1 lead in the 2nd set.

I back the weasel and this is what I get, 6-2 6-2 Grosjean heading to the 3rd, lol.

[moses millsap]

Day 6 recap:

Winner
Vaidisova/Chela +106

Losers
Horna +120
Coria +145

Horna blows a 5*-2 lead in 1st set and 4-1* in 2nd set. LOL. Only myself to blame for backing the weasel, who injuries his finger during the match. Brilliant. Can't complain when you lose less than 1 unit on a losing day though.

Some good matches tomorrow, Robredo and Hantuchova both played very well in their previous matches, but I can't fade Bandy as he is about as clutch as they come when it comes to grand slams/big events. Hantuchova nearly blew her match against Serena in the 2nd set and has a history of that inability to close out matches. Sharapova is too big a fighter, one of the strongest mentally on the tour, so even though I don't think she's worthy of -386 chalk, I think she pulls it out. So only two plays for me.

Plays for Day 7:
Tojo +171
Kuznetsova +208

[Illusion]

What's your overall record in the tourny OWNED?

[moses millsap]

What's your overall record in the tourny OWNED?

Days 1 & 2 = 7-8, +7.3 units
Day 3 = 2-5, +0.4 units
Day 4 = 6-2, +11.6 units
Day 5 = 3-3, +2.35 units
Day 6 = 1-2, -0.94 units

Overall = 19-20, +20.71 units

It's been nice, but last year I lost back quite a few units in the 2nd week as well as there is less value as the justified favorites are usually a class above and the pressure hits the dogs a lot more with more at stake.

[Illusion]

Very nice OWNED. I'm gonna have to start following your plays.

[adriano]

excellent record OWNED. Maybe you should pass on the 2nd week and keep the 20 units profit

[Illusion]

That's what I would probably do.

[bigboydan]

owned is on a major run in the aussie open so far, KEEP IT UP BRO !!!!

[moses millsap]

Davenport beat Sveta and Tojo doesn't play until 5am est, so recap of day 7 tomorrow.

Dogs for day 8:

Hrbaty +186 (Similar type players, I'll go with Dom, who's has much greater fitness than Kolya)
Chela +129 (doesn't seem like his throwing up on court in the 2nd set against Vliegen is anything serious, but he definitely wasn't sharp in that match despite the score. Kiefer on the other hand played superb, I think he levels back down and this surface fits Chela's game well)
Myskina +128 (Will be close and probably a 3 setter, but I prefer Nastya's game in big pressure situations)
Vaidisova +150 (The youngster possesses a big game than can overpower Momo's defense. No real mental edge to the notorious choker Momo)

[moses millsap]

Day 7 Recap: 0-2, -2.0 units

Overall: 19-22, +18.71 units

Tojo got destroyed. May add a late play on Schiavone over Clijsters later, need to get more solid information on Kimmie's condition and injury first. She posted on her site that she might have to withdraw against Vinci, then comes out and totally demolishes her, so who knows?

[bigboydan]

i'm passing on todays tennis action bro, but i hope you win

[moses millsap]

Watching Chela play today makes me wonder when he's going to have his sex change and move to the WTA tour. 4-4 in the first set and 0-40 on Kiefer's serve and he can't convert one. Then he proceeds to get broken 4 times in a row in the 2nd set. Vaidisova at 16 was just too nervous today, Momo didn't show me anything special yet in this tourney despite her results, basic defensive tennis from her is working b/c of the slow court conditions.

Adding one more for tonight:

Schiavone +312

[moses millsap]

Can't believe this shit today. Vaidisova and Myskina combine for about a million UEs and now Hrbaty is about to choke this away after leading 6-4, 6-4, 4-3 and 30-0 on his serve.

[bigboydan]

been there done that as well before bud.

[moses millsap]

Yeah, no doubt, Day 8 was a bad one, 0-5 and -5.0 units. Favorites were 15-1 in the Round of 16 with Andy being the only favorite to lose. Sad thing is by looking at the draw on both sides, I like the favorites in most of the upcoming matches.

Overall 19-27 (+13.71 units)
5* N/A
4* N/A
3* N/A
2* N/A
1* 19-26, +13.91 units
Small (Under 1* plays) 0-1, -0.20 units
ROI: 30.3%


Onto Day 9, best bet on the board is Henin-Hardene -200 but obviously I can't play it at those odds. The power players in this tourney are getting destroyed by the defensive counter punchers as this court looked as slow as I've seen it yesterday. I wanted to play Nalbandian not to win 3-0, but don't like the -147 juice. Several plays today, I don't like this court for Sharapova's game, but same can be said for Petrova, and like Maria's mental strength in big matches, so going to put her in a combo with JHH for my first two unit play of the Open. I am tempted to take Nalbandian to win outright (by rolling over my bets, but I think Baghdatis has a very good chance to beat Ljubicic tonight, so going to pass as the outright odds may be low b/c of that).

Day 9 Plays
2* Sharapova/Henin Hardene (Betting Sharapova at -275 now and will bet that amount if she wins on JHH later.) +100ish
1* Baghdatis +204

[moses millsap]

Overall 21-27 (+17.75 units)
5* N/A
4* N/A
3* N/A
2* 1-0, +2.0 units
1* 20-26, +15.95 units
Small (Under 1* plays) 0-1, -0.20 units
ROI: 36.8%

Finally back on track with probably 3 of my luckier matches (well, I have not seen Marcos' match yet), but did watch Sharapova and Henin and both were way too close for comfort, but they pulled through. Grateful Baghdatis didn't blow his 2-0 sets lead as it's been fashionable of late with the guys I've been backing. The Sharapova (-275) and Henin Hardene (-214) combo paid out exactly even money for me, so it was 2-0, +4.04 units for me last night.

Onto today's 4 matches. Federer should cruise by Davydenko, who's a solid baseliner that doesn't really have any big weapon to frustrate Roger. He showed me some mental strength in his huge comeback win over Hrbaty and Federer did play rather sloppy in the middle sets against Haas, but even at +1550 it's hard to throw any money down against Roger in this spot. It is the late match (3:30 est) so there might be a small play if the court and wind are in bad shape by then. When I first saw the line for Kiefer/Grosjean with Kiwi being priced as the favorite minus 22 cents, I loved it. He played fantastic against JCF, but in his match with Chela and although the scoreline looks much easier than his win over JCF, it was more based on Chela's lack of fitness. Kiwi got broken several times as well and didn't perform as well. But the big key in this matchup is that it is the first match of the day on Rod Laver Arena at 11am local time, meaning that the roof will be open for this one. The wind will cause problems for Kiwi's high ball toss serving style and in a match that is so even in terms of rally control %, I'm going to pass on this one now especially Kiwi is well known for his mental collapses.

Women's. 8-0 in the round of 16, 2-0 so far in the quarters for the favorites. I think that changes today. I think these two matches will be carbon copies of one another. First, with Schnyder and Mauresmo, both are your typical counter punchers, they'll wait for the other girl to make an UE, but with this slow, high bouncing court, even a 2 set match here could be a marathon with the rallies I expect. Schnyder is very intelligent on the court, a crafty veteran. I'm not so sure Momo has ridden herself of her choking ways by winning the year end championships last year. With the Hingis/Clijsters match, you also have two defensive counter punchers. I never thought Hingis would have many it to the QFs coming back like this, but she's had a rather easy draw so far. She looked impressive against Stosur for the first set and a half, but then crumbled, but was able to manage to pull out a very close 2nd set in the TB. (I think if Martina lost that 2nd set, she would've lost in 3 like 2 weeks before against Panetta). That said, you can't doubt how impressive Hingis has looked so far in Melbourne. Forget the past history with Hingis winning most of her matches against Clijsters. That was a long time ago, Kim, if healthy, would blow Hingis off the court, but she's not. She's not one to fabricate an injury to try to trick her opponent and after watching her against Schiavone, it's clear she's not healthy at all, as she played horrible compared to her standards but, combined with Fran's choking and some key shots on big points, escaped with a 2 set victory. Hingis loves the AO and has that killer instinct (where I think Kim is too nice, which is why she never broke through until last year's USO).

Day 10 Plays
1* Schnyder +237
1* Hingis +209

[bigboydan]

i was leaning twords hingis myself at that price, but i decided to pass.

[moses millsap]

i was leaning twords hingis myself at that price, but i decided to pass.

Have you been playing the AO much? Only seen you with Ferrer and Pavel in Round 1, and then JCF against Kiefer. The upcoming indoor season is usually a goldmine and top players lack motivation and a ton of upsets, especially in the tournament in Marseilles (the last two years, it's been great for dogs).

[moses millsap]

Overall 21-29 (+15.75 units)
5* N/A
4* N/A
3* N/A
2* 1-0, +2.0 units
1* 20-28, +13.95 units
Small (Under 1* plays) 0-1, -0.20 units
ROI: 31.4%

Well, Schyner did not show up, didn't look like she cared, and got way too frustrated that Momo was taking her balls early and then just decided to spray BHs and FHs that weren't even close to the doubles line. Hingis put up a good fight and thought she had it at 3*-3, but Kim didn't look injured at all and played great for the most part.

Justine/Maria - Maria played one of her worst matches in defeating Petrova, it was basically handed to her, because Petrova is a mental midget and couldn't close out any big points. The surface seems to really be bothering her game. Justine, on the other hand, after a sloppy 1st set against Davenport where she tried to go for winners realized that's the worst plan of attack on this court and forced Lindsay to move and took the final two sets (winning several huge points with great gets and great shotmaking vs Sharapova who just relied on Petrova to net a FH or send a BH flying long).

Momo/Clijsters - Too much power from Kim, even though Momo's scorelines have looked great. MK gave up after one set b/c of the heat, 16yr old NV was way too nervous and Momo didn't have to do much of anything but get the ball in court, and her match with PS was even worse, b/c PS gave up early in the match after getting broken at 3-3 in the first set and lost the final 9 games.

Will be betting on Bandy to win the championship, but think his odds will drop against Marcos, so will bet that later in the evening.

Today's plays (as usual, all plays are for units staked)
1* Henin-Hardene -162 (1.0u to win .62u)
1* Clijsters -156 (1.0u to win .64u)

Don't like to play favorites usually especially since the faves on the women's side are 12-0 in their L12 matches, but taking everything into account, I like Justine and Kim to pull through tonight.

[aje]

I was sweating my Henin-Hardene play early. Glad to see her come through. I'm going to take my chances with A. Mauresmo @ +130. She'll have her hands full with Clijsters though.

[aje]

That was rather unfortunate for Clijsters. Hate to see a match end that way.

[bigboydan]

that mens final will be rather interesting, now that Nalbandian lost.

[moses millsap]

Overall 22-30 (+15.37 units)
5* N/A
4* N/A
3* N/A
2* 1-0, +2.0 units
1* 21-29, +13.57 units
Small (Under 1* plays) 0-1, -0.20 units
ROI: 29.4%

No more bets for me this tournament. I like Justine in the finals, but at -240, no thanks. I was planning a big bet on Nalbandian vs Federer in the final, but he choked big time. If Kiefer upsets Fed, maybe I'll come back with a play in the men's final, but I seriously doubt that happens. Very happy with the results in this opening grand slam with the 29.4% ROI, which is pretty much equal to going 68 out of 100 on flat -110 line bets (actually, a 29.8% ROI there).

[Illusion]

Very nice open OWNED, congrats.

[aje]

Any thoughts on this one?

Yes +285
No -315

[onlooker]

Very nice OWNED. Thanks for sharing this on a daily basis.

[bigboydan]

anyone think that Baghdatis can beat federer in the aussie open finals ?

Federer -750
Baghdatis +680

[aje]

Well, I'm seriously considering betting Baghdatis. Mostly because of my position that I took on Federer before the start of the tournament. Might as well lock in a profit.

[adriano]

no way Baghdatis beats Federer...the Cypriot is lucky just to be in the final