AylukeAy's AFL thread.

[aylukeay]

In depth preview posted at wisebet.com but the plays i am really keen on in the most disposals markets here.


Collingwood Vs Fremantle

Fremantle Margin (1-39) 2.5 units @ 2.25


Most disposals group A (both on sportsbet)
Beams 0.8 units @ 5.00
Swan 0.4 units @ 3.00

Most disposals group B (sportsbet)
Adams 0.8 units @ 5.50
Lumunba. H. 0.5 Units @ 6.00

total outlay 5 units.

[aylukeay]

Syd Vs GWS

Sydney Swans (-48.5) 2 units @ $2.02 to beat GWS (pinnacle)


Most goals:
Buddy 1.26 units @ 2.85 (centrebet)
Mglynn 0.24 units @ 13 (sportsbet)


Most disposals group b
Parker 0.4 units @ 7.50 (sportsbet)
Mitchell 0.6 units @ 7.50 (sportsbet)


Total outlay 4.5 units

[MustWinPlease]

I like the 1-39 pick i might take that too.

[OZnBa Fan]

One thing that might be interesting to do is run a brownlow count on sbr if anyone else is interested through out the year and see how we can attack it at the end of the year. but the only futures bet i am making this season is on cotchin to win the brownlow, extended write up in the post above but monster odds for his capabilities for mine. i am in for 1 unit.


Cotchin to win the brownlow @ $15 sportsbet

Will post round 1 plays soon,gl.

I am very keen on a brownlow count mate

[aylukeay]

well the play i was very keen on in Beams came through with the goods, but adams in group B was not as prominent as i was hoping, and pies huge disappointments to not give freo any sort of challenge.

return 4 units from our 5 unit outlay so not the worst start to the season.

finalising some plays for tigers-goldc game tonight will be posting soon!

[Bic]

Good luck for the season mate!

[aylukeay]

thanks mate all the best to you also!
i will be settling p/l for the weekend at the conclusion so this does not get too messy, but have some nice overs in bets i posted yesterday e.g tom mitchell at $7.50 now into 4s


RICHMOND - GOLDCOAST:
Richmond (1-39 margin) 2.5 units @ 2.20 to beat gold coast (betstar/sportsbet)

most goals:
Riewoldt: 1.16 units @ 2.80 (betstar)
Vickery: 0.34 units @ 9.00 (Tab)

Most disposals group A (sportsbet)
Martin 0.4 units @ 8.00

Most disposals Group B (betstar)
Houli 0.66 units @ 4.50
Ellis 0.84 units @ 3.60

Outlay 5.9 units

[MustWinPlease]

Also on richmond 1-39

wouldn't be surprised if they lose though knowing the tigers

[aylukeay]

nothing surprises me either, but would prefer scores level at 3/4 time than rich up by 40 at 3/4 time I think.

good luck to us

[aylukeay]

my bets are going to get smashed in this swans game but wow i dont even care

wow

[aylukeay]

complete shocker today.

[OZnBa Fan]

Still early in the season mate plenty of time to get it back, doesn't look you were the only 1 today

[aylukeay]

Votes: really dont know the first match so tough but thinking like

pearce- sandi- ballentyne

ward-treloar-davis

ablett-prestia-swallow

[aylukeay]

Running a big dutch on the most goals market Schultz odds are huge $8 as in can he score most goals 3 times a year? so obv a yes big plus EV role imo, and hoping power talls can stretch the carlton defence.

Port Adelaide (+10.5) 3 Units @ 1.935 (Pinnacle)

Most Disposals Group A (Sportsbet)
Murphy 0.75 units @ 4.50
Cornes 0.75 units @ 4.50

Most Disposals Group B (Sportsbet)
Mclean 0.75 units @ 4.50
Thomas 0.75 units @ 5.00


Most Goals:
Schultz 0.58 units @ 8.00 (TAB)
Westoff 0.3 units @ 11.00 (TAB)
Butcher 0.2 units @ 15 (TAB)
Monfries 0.22 units @ 14 (Sportsbet)
Garlett 0.2 units @ 8.50 (Sportsbet)


7.5 unit outlay

[MustWinPlease]

good luck today mate unlucky on sydney and richmond

[aylukeay]

thanks mate. hopefully turn the corner tonight or the 2nd half of the round and get the ball rolling the right way.

What a qtr by hoff to bag 4, wish he didnt pass when inside the fwd50 twice as well!! (both passes his team mates missed)

Cornes started with a bang and was +2 at qtr time but did nothing in the second and is -2 now. same with brock. so who knows.
love to get 2 of these 3 exotic bets up

[aylukeay]

Well a nice end to the weekend winning 5.5 units to make something up after a horrid saturday. With my style of Afl punting not uncommon to have + or - 15 unit weeks its a wild ride but at the end of the day we make that %.
Already have 4 unit play on demons posted for the upcoming weekend, and a little tempted by a couple of lines but no more plays til teams are named.

I thought Port where very good against the blues and my votes would have gone Polec unlucky but his first half disposal was poor very good finish to the game though, wines was simply outstanding and could easily get 3, 11 clearances and 2 goals would have got the 3 votes in most games but i thought HOFF was the difference and stood up when needed.

1. Cornes
2. Wines
3. Westhoff

[aylukeay]

edit/ see below post for official bets.

(this post was just expressing my love affair with dangerfields odds for tommorow night)

[aylukeay]

Most disposals group A
Johnson 0.9 units @ 3.20 (centre)
Dangerfield 0.6 units @ 13 (tab)

Most Goals
Hawkins 0.6 units @ 5.50 (centrebet)
Betts 0.4 units @ 7.50 (centrebet)

[aylukeay]

Adelaide 1 unit @ 3.50 (sportingbet)


On sportingbet promotion is if a team kicks 12 goals but losses it will be a refund, going to try and take advantage of that with the smallest of all plays on crows. Think odds are pretty spot on so without this promotion, would not bet.


so with the exotic bets in post above 3.5 units outlay on match

[aylukeay]

Most disposals all on sportsbet, will be betting line but waiting for $2.00 odds on palmer bet 4-7 pm friday afternoon, will also post lines for hawks and wce then 2.

Group b:
Zaharakis 0.75 units @ 4.00
Hibbered 0.75 units @ 4.00

Group A:
Watson 1.06 units @ 3.00
Stanton 0.44 units @ 7.00

[aylukeay]

all on palmerbet

Essendon (+13.5) 2.5 units @ 2.00

Hawks (-46.5) 3.5 units @ 2.00

Wce (-29.5) 3.5 units @ 2.00



Hawks most disposals group B sportsbet:
Shiels 0.75 units @ 4.50
Smith 0.75 units @ 5.50

[aylukeay]

3/3 tonight for a nice profit, hopefully a cpl more games like this to finish the round.

[aylukeay]

Melb bet already posted 2 weeks ago it was 3 units @ 1.80 and 1 unit @ 1.72

now adding most disposals group A (sportsbet)
Vince 0.8 units @ 4.50
Cross 0.7 units @ 5.00

[aylukeay]

Most Goals (sportsbet):
Darling 0.5 unit @ 7.00
Kennedy 1 unit @ 3.50


Most disposals Group A (sportsbet):
Liberatore 0.7 unit @ 6.00
Masten 0.8 unit @ 4.50


Most disposals Group B : macrae locked.not betting until subs announced
Higgins 0.23 units @ 6.50 (sportsbet)
Gaff 0.7 units @ 5.25 (betstar)
Macrae 0.57 units @ (sportsbet)


pending bet (wce -29.5) for 3 units

[Domestic]

Best of luck on the AFL plays. Any thoughts on the T20 world cup matches tonight?

[aylukeay]

Thanks mate yep. so far got 2/3 in the head to head cricket plays (nz and lanka but got pakistan wrong) but have had bad run on most run props to give profit back.
Like a small play on pakistan tonight @ odds (think aus are better team but want to fade 1st game in foreign spinning conditions), and leaning towards a small play on windies too but want to see how the conditions play and toss before confirming that one.

[MiddleMan]

I like Koby Stevens at $8 for most disposals in Group B.

Good luck, mate.

[aylukeay]

I cant argue with that play at those odds could be a very interesting group i am more interested in this one than most other matches this weekend.
Best of luck!

[aylukeay]

Freo result -2.5 units.......Props +1.5
Syd result -2 units............Props -2.5
Rich result -2.5 units.........Props-2.78
Melb result -4 units...........Props -1.5 units
Hawks Result +3.5 ...........Props -1.5 units
WCE result +3.5................Props -4.5
Gee result n/a ....................Props -1.5
Ess result: +2.5 .................Props +3.18
Port result: +2.8 ................Props: +2.18


Overall Exotics: -7.42 units this is a bad result but my style of betting can easily have +15 unit weeks so is not a major concern and the fact is 2 extra winners and it would have shown a profit, e.g Macrae last night who was equal at 3/4 would have been for a 5.13 unit result but couldnt get the job done in group B even though he would have won group A
a few flips lost a few that looked home that got beat etc (Parker +6 at 1/4 time/Darling equal with 4 minutes to go) pretty standard result when things do not go your way we will get it back next week.

Overall Results: +1.3 units it sort of is what it is when you have a big 4 unit play at monster value from 3 weeks ago that was 30c overs that gets beat tiny loss terrible results first week but bounced back hard this weekend. Show a small win but if the big play got up could have been anything this week.


Overall -5.12 units

sounds worse than it really is considering my style turns that much over per game unlike most guys on sbr who post 1 unit plays.
Like a few things early just waiting for more sites to put up odds before we smash.
onward and upwards.

[aylukeay]

Votes: thoughts????

3. Sandliands 2. Pearce 1. Fyfe

3. Ward 2. Trelor 1. Davis

3. Ablett 2. Prestia 1. Swallow

3. Westhoff 2. Wines 1. Cornes

3. Bartell 2. Selwood 1. Stevie J

3. Jobe 2. Chapman 1. Goddard

3. Birchall 2. Shiels 1. Rougie??

3. Nroo 2 c. Jones 1. n.Jones ??

3. Lecrae 2. Rosa 1. Selwood

[aylukeay]

Early play round 2.


Port Adelaide 1 unit @ 1.67 (sportsbet) this bet contains a refund if port lead at end of any qtr but do not win

Port Adelaide 3 units @ 1.70 (betstar)


For those of you who could get all of your bet to fit under the promo i would just do that, i am only able to get 1 on.

[aylukeay]

Second Early Play:

Fremantle (1-39) 3 units @ 2.50 (palmerbet)



Full write up coming soon to be posted on wisebet.com but everything points to the margin falling in this region and betting accordingly. Need some luck when betting in margins which we have not got this year but this one presents great value on something I price alot closer to $2.00 range. 2/3 times these teams have played have been within this margin.

[aylukeay]

Richmond 2.5 units @ 1.63 (betstar)

Exotics for 2moros game:
Group A (sportsbet)
Ellis 0.2 units @ 8.00
Brock 0.5 units @ 8.00
Thomas 1 unit @ 4.00


Group A (sportsbet):
Cotchin 1.1 unit @ 3.00
Gibbs 0.4 units @ 8.00


Most Goals:
Griffiths 0.24 units @ 34.00 (sportsbet)
Henderson 0.2 units @ 11.00 (sportsbet)
Cotchin 0.2 units @ 41.00 (betezy)
Vickery 0.36 units@ 15.00 (betezy)

Outlay of 6.7 units

[aylukeay]

bit filthy with cotchin after leading by 4 at 3/4 time and then being a liability for his team. but good result from vickery to win a bit on props and a bit on the result.

Will be posting a few lines this week all between the palmber bet 4-7 pm promotion. and will post up exotics for Ess-Hawks tonight.