So with this analysis, because I will mention several things, and knowing that they are all presumptions and not fact, I will most likely be wrong but.. the overview should be at least as solid as it can be given the factors involved.
I do wish I could share the PP's with everyone as I have things to say that might help for down the road with analysis but I cannot copy and paste them and have them come out coherently.
That said, here we go.
Ordinarily, with respect to the exact time in the workouts part, yeah, you might ask that they go about the same as last time and it happens to be right on it. But... This doesn't pass the smell test too me. I would bet if I could, that those works were just lip service to the entry clerk so the horse could run. Do you think that someone is paying clockers to sit at that training center to watch 1 horse work a 1/2 mile all day on a Sunday the 8th? Or that only 3 horses worked on a Friday , Nov. 29th? I find it hard to believe. I do not know 20 some years removed how the workouts at these places work today but when published works first started being required, if there were not any at a track that has clockers, the trainer simply gave times to the entry clerk to follow the entry for the DRF to print. So the old 1/2 in 50. was almost a flag. Fast forward to today, and without knowing anything, I put virtually no stock at all in those works. They don't even make sense. Who works a horse in 51 , waits 9 days until a Sunday, and works a 1/2 in 51 again? Then, they wait 16 more days to run?? Nonsense.
But with that said, the horse has worked and I would guess, and probably decently. Has he worked enough with those shaky connections? IDK. But, he did run 46 2/5ths for a 1/2 mile on 10/8 for the half in his 3rd start and ran 45 3/5ths for a half in his second start.
So this is his 5th start and he has his 5th rider on today. Unreal. This horse has had no chance to succeed unless it was done solely be him. I see very little if any help from anyone else. Fronts on as a firster, then blinkers since? Did he work in Blinkers?? Who knows. What a mess.
But, with all that said, I think this horse has a legit shot in here at a solid price. If he runs back to his 2nd, or 3rd start, he should be a factor. The 4th start, seems deceiving on paper.
2nd start he lost by 3 lengths for 4th.
3rd start he lost by 3 1/2 lengths for 4th.
4th start, he lost by 3 1/2 lengths for 4th.
The one and two horse should duel early and both have faded in the past. I doubt they would have finished ahead of this horse in his other races.
So you are obviously betting blind with all the assumptions and such but that is what you do when you bet on longshots sometimes.
If they ran 20 horses exactly like this and in this exact situation, I truly think more than 1 of them beats this group. So, 15 or 20-1 would be a fair price IMO.
At a nice price, I have bet on much worse than this guy. I say he is worth a swing at high odds.
I do wish I could share the PP's with everyone as I have things to say that might help for down the road with analysis but I cannot copy and paste them and have them come out coherently.
That said, here we go.
Ordinarily, with respect to the exact time in the workouts part, yeah, you might ask that they go about the same as last time and it happens to be right on it. But... This doesn't pass the smell test too me. I would bet if I could, that those works were just lip service to the entry clerk so the horse could run. Do you think that someone is paying clockers to sit at that training center to watch 1 horse work a 1/2 mile all day on a Sunday the 8th? Or that only 3 horses worked on a Friday , Nov. 29th? I find it hard to believe. I do not know 20 some years removed how the workouts at these places work today but when published works first started being required, if there were not any at a track that has clockers, the trainer simply gave times to the entry clerk to follow the entry for the DRF to print. So the old 1/2 in 50. was almost a flag. Fast forward to today, and without knowing anything, I put virtually no stock at all in those works. They don't even make sense. Who works a horse in 51 , waits 9 days until a Sunday, and works a 1/2 in 51 again? Then, they wait 16 more days to run?? Nonsense.
But with that said, the horse has worked and I would guess, and probably decently. Has he worked enough with those shaky connections? IDK. But, he did run 46 2/5ths for a 1/2 mile on 10/8 for the half in his 3rd start and ran 45 3/5ths for a half in his second start.
So this is his 5th start and he has his 5th rider on today. Unreal. This horse has had no chance to succeed unless it was done solely be him. I see very little if any help from anyone else. Fronts on as a firster, then blinkers since? Did he work in Blinkers?? Who knows. What a mess.
But, with all that said, I think this horse has a legit shot in here at a solid price. If he runs back to his 2nd, or 3rd start, he should be a factor. The 4th start, seems deceiving on paper.
2nd start he lost by 3 lengths for 4th.
3rd start he lost by 3 1/2 lengths for 4th.
4th start, he lost by 3 1/2 lengths for 4th.
The one and two horse should duel early and both have faded in the past. I doubt they would have finished ahead of this horse in his other races.
So you are obviously betting blind with all the assumptions and such but that is what you do when you bet on longshots sometimes.
If they ran 20 horses exactly like this and in this exact situation, I truly think more than 1 of them beats this group. So, 15 or 20-1 would be a fair price IMO.
At a nice price, I have bet on much worse than this guy. I say he is worth a swing at high odds.
