Horse Racing questions and answers

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  • str
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-12-09
    • 11751

    #6231
    Originally posted by JBEX
    next step is tough any way they go..maybe they keep him at tampa ..calmer environment and he's familiar with the track
    ..probably not though as todd wouldn't be hands on with him (if that's the dynamics of him staying there)..out of my area of knowledge and possibly a guess even for you..maybe not even that important ..I've heard trainers like to run there..surface and environment I guess

    Q. .maybe they keep him at tampa ..calmer environment and he's familiar with the track


    A. I talked at Christmas with Tony D. He was in Tampa and driving to the track. He says it is a super place to train a horse in the winter. He raved about the turf course as well. So I think you are correct in your assessment.


    Q. .probably not though as todd wouldn't be hands on with him (if that's the dynamics of him staying there)..out of my area of knowledge and possibly a guess even for you


    A. Well, yes, it is somewhat of a guess. I mean, every trainer wants to see there top horses train and check them out everyday. But if anyone is used to having nice horses at a split barn, it's Todd.

    He has a group of horses all pointing for the Derby. He needs to manage them as a group. I have to think he has a list of probable's at this point but that list will shift around as the races run prior to Derby day. We do not know if this horse is near the top of the list, which would indicate that the horses potential has him up that high, as he has not actually done enough to be there as of now. Or, he could be down the list and needs to earn his way up. That is kind of how it works when you have multiples looking at the same spots. You have to list them for yourself and that list will ultimately change some as we go. It was not an easy task when I had 4-6 horses for the same claiming race coming up in 3 weeks so it's got to be miles tougher for this type. But, then again, with the races they need to run in prior to the Derby, that does sort a lot of things out.

    Because the horse is still relatively new to the scene, I'm not sure Todd would want to jostle him around at this point to make Todd feel better. He will do what he feels is the horses best chance and work within that in all probability. That might mean bringing him to Gulfstream or ,as you said, leave him at Tampa and allow the horse to rise there. He can still see the horse as often as he likes. It's a short flight back and forth and with young horses, you need to take all these little mental things they might be challenged with and weigh them carefully. The trainer won't just move him because it's best for himself. He will do what he feels is best for the horses. That goes for all of those on that list. Hope that makes sense.


    Q. .I've heard trainers like to run there..surface and environment I guess

    A. Yes, totally correct JBEX. Like I said, Tony loves it there. He says the horses love it and both surfaces are excellent.

    And that is why Tony loves it. It's ALL about the horses happiness and safety for trainers that put the kind of effort into there stock that Todd, Tony and these top tier guys put in. Horses first. They eat, then you eat. It's how they live and think each day.

    Heck, in my house, we ate Thanksgiving dinner to accommodate the horses schedule. Same with Christmas present opening for the kids. If you are a dedicated horse trainer, that's your life. Everything revolves around the horses schedule.
    Sounds like you are really starting to get the hang of this thing JBEX. It is pretty cool to watch this unfold every spring, isn't it ? Especially when you see all that goes on that most fans don't have the opportunity to see or realize.

    All the best !
    Last edited by str; 02-15-23, 07:33 AM.
    Comment
    • Pigpen
      SBR MVP
      • 05-09-08
      • 2750

      #6232
      I am becoming interested in these Army Mule kids. Wild Mule runs Sunday in an allowance at OP.
      Comment
      • JBEX
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-02-12
        • 23421

        #6233
        Originally posted by Pigpen
        I am becoming interested in these Army Mule kids. Wild Mule runs Sunday in an allowance at OP.

        hey pigpen

        he has a horse in the last race at gulfstream the next 2 days and oak R5 on saturday
        Comment
        • JBEX
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 23421

          #6234
          Originally posted by JBEX
          think you have to throw bobby frankel in there too..after that I think it's a steep cliff to the next best (just considering 1970-2000) ..think shug and Bill mott are knocking at the door and both of them had a significant part of their career in that time period..todd and chad a little too young but they'll be in consideration when they call it quits..think the latter two are a level above the prior 2 (mott,shug)

          on a separate note if I had to name the 5 (ok 7) trainers who stick out (to me) in ny in the above time period (70-00).. excluding shug,mott and the chief

          no particular order

          mike hushion
          gasper moschera
          rick schossberg
          flint schulhoffer
          woody
          frank martin
          your mentor




          .


          I think if I had to add a couple of more to this list it'd be james toner and frank alexander..I know that the latter is someone you mentioned a ways back that you knew well and were fond of ..the former I believe is still active



          .
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23421

            #6235
            Originally posted by str
            Q. .maybe they keep him at tampa ..calmer environment and he's familiar with the track


            A. I talked at Christmas with Tony D. He was in Tampa and driving to the track. He says it is a super place to train a horse in the winter. He raved about the turf course as well. So I think you are correct in your assessment.


            Q. .probably not though as todd wouldn't be hands on with him (if that's the dynamics of him staying there)..out of my area of knowledge and possibly a guess even for you


            A. Well, yes, it is somewhat of a guess. I mean, every trainer wants to see there top horses train and check them out everyday. But if anyone is used to having nice horses at a split barn, it's Todd.

            He has a group of horses all pointing for the Derby. He needs to manage them as a group. I have to think he has a list of probable's at this point but that list will shift around as the races run prior to Derby day. We do not know if this horse is near the top of the list, which would indicate that the horses potential has him up that high, as he has not actually done enough to be there as of now. Or, he could be down the list and needs to earn his way up. That is kind of how it works when you have multiples looking at the same spots. You have to list them for yourself and that list will ultimately change some as we go. It was not an easy task when I had 4-6 horses for the same claiming race coming up in 3 weeks so it's got to be miles tougher for this type. But, then again, with the races they need to run in prior to the Derby, that does sort a lot of things out.

            Because the horse is still relatively new to the scene, I'm not sure Todd would want to jostle him around at this point to make Todd feel better. He will do what he feels is the horses best chance and work within that in all probability. That might mean bringing him to Gulfstream or ,as you said, leave him at Tampa and allow the horse to rise there. He can still see the horse as often as he likes. It's a short flight back and forth and with young horses, you need to take all these little mental things they might be challenged with and weigh them carefully. The trainer won't just move him because it's best for himself. He will do what he feels is best for the horses. That goes for all of those on that list. Hope that makes sense.


            Q. .I've heard trainers like to run there..surface and environment I guess

            A. Yes, totally correct JBEX. Like I said, Tony loves it there. He says the horses love it and both surfaces are excellent.

            And that is why Tony loves it. It's ALL about the horses happiness and safety for trainers that put the kind of effort into there stock that Todd, Tony and these top tier guys put in. Horses first. They eat, then you eat. It's how they live and think each day.

            Heck, in my house, we ate Thanksgiving dinner to accommodate the horses schedule. Same with Christmas present opening for the kids. If you are a dedicated horse trainer, that's your life. Everything revolves around the horses schedule.
            Sounds like you are really starting to get the hang of this thing JBEX. It is pretty cool to watch this unfold every spring, isn't it ? Especially when you see all that goes on that most fans don't have the opportunity to see or realize.

            All the best !

            thanks str


            I read about tampa a couple of times a ways back and had a friend who went there a few times..the surfaces as you said and my buddy said to the effect it was a nice quiet country track..obviously that has to help the horses..So Tony Dutrow agrees also so got to be something to it


            not surprised that life is really horses first when you're a trainer..their needs and issues take precedence over all else

            If todd did leave KB at tampa after the race who would handle his daily care ..another local trainer gets paid ? an assistant on Todd's staff ? understand ,as you said, him being in Florida it's easy to hop a short flight to check him out personally if he needed to


            has to be tricky and involved at this time of the year for trainers like todd..certainly adjustments along the way.. promising ones disappoint while a third stringer comes up with a big race and vaults himself towards the top of the list .. then if a lot turn out good placing them in the right preps around the country..these are the kind of problems any trainer would like to be in a position to have so not feeling sorry for him
            Last edited by JBEX; 02-15-23, 05:20 PM.
            Comment
            • JBEX
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-02-12
              • 23421

              #6236
              Originally posted by JBEX
              hey pigpen

              he has a horse in the last race at gulfstream the next 2 days and oak R5 on saturday
              I don't particularly care for tomorrow's even though.. he has two 2nd's from as many starts and both of those were on the poly at woodbine and he gets same surface here..obvious things that are good but my main gripe against is the trainer is weak in essential categories relative to today..some solid firsters but not picking against the AM's ..on them or off the race..like to see them win regardless ..#6 stanley house (8-1) is the horse
              Last edited by JBEX; 02-15-23, 10:59 PM.
              Comment
              • JBEX
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-02-12
                • 23421

                #6237
                Originally posted by JBEX
                I don't particularly care for tomorrow's even though.. he has two 2nd's from as many starts and both of those were on the poly at woodbine and he gets same surface here..obvious things that are good but my main gripe against is the trainer is weak in essential categories relative to today..some solid firsters but not picking against the AM's ..on them or off the race..like to see them win regardless ..#6 stanley house (8-1)
                is the horse
                there will be 1 running each day through sunday..I'll look at each race the night before and give my opinion on whether I like the army mule (AM) or not
                Comment
                • str
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-12-09
                  • 11751

                  #6238
                  Originally posted by Pigpen
                  I am becoming interested in these Army Mule kids. Wild Mule runs Sunday in an allowance at OP.
                  When you consider he was/ is a 10k -12.5 k stallion, he is incredible Pigpen!
                  Comment
                  • str
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-12-09
                    • 11751

                    #6239
                    Originally posted by JBEX
                    I think if I had to add a couple of more to this list it'd be james toner and frank alexander..I know that the latter is someone you mentioned a ways back that you knew well and were fond of ..the former I believe is still active



                    .
                    I never knew James Toner but Frank, OMG, I saw his name and what you said and it all came flooding back.

                    What does it say about a person when you here is name for the first time in a long while after he has passed and stop cold in your tracks?

                    I was such a better and more complete trainer AND person starting the day I met him. What a lucky break to have gotten to know him. I just happened to be stabled next to him at Pimlico when I first started. Pure class. And he showed me that there was more than one way to train a horse.
                    Comment
                    • JBEX
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-02-12
                      • 23421

                      #6240
                      Originally posted by str
                      I never knew James Toner but Frank, OMG, I saw his name and what you said and it all came flooding back.

                      What does it say about a person when you here is name for the first time in a long while after he has passed and stop cold in your tracks?

                      I was such a better and more complete trainer AND person starting the day I met him. What a lucky break to have gotten to know him. I just happened to be stabled next to him at Pimlico when I first started. Pure class. And he showed me that there was more than one way to train a horse.
                      remember it was after he had just passed that you spoke about him..obviously had a profound influence on you and always good to come in contact with people like that

                      I was just thinking top of my head solid guys i thought of right away when i saw their name in the drf..can certainly remember other names but I feel at an above level ,for me, those guys pretty much cover it
                      Comment
                      • JBEX
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-02-12
                        • 23421

                        #6241
                        put this in my thread but meant to put it here


                        FRIDAY /ARMY MULE



                        gulfstream R9


                        #1 a j's memory (15-1)


                        makes his 2nd start and the big drop msw/mcl..horse cost a bunch so on the surface (bettors perspective) not good but then why is luis saez coming aboard to ride (paco lopez in debut)? trainer having a nice meet and has solid #'s in applicable categories..should take some money if he's live..drifting up to no-man's land wouldn't be a good sign






                        .
                        Last edited by JBEX; 02-16-23, 04:47 PM.
                        Comment
                        • str
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-12-09
                          • 11751

                          #6242
                          Originally posted by JBEX
                          thanks str


                          I read about tampa a couple of times a ways back and had a friend who went there a few times..the surfaces as you said and my buddy said to the effect it was a nice quiet country track..obviously that has to help the horses..So Tony Dutrow agrees also so got to be something to it


                          not surprised that life is really horses first when you're a trainer..their needs and issues take precedence over all else

                          If todd did leave KB at tampa after the race who would handle his daily care ..another local trainer gets paid ? an assistant on Todd's staff ? understand ,as you said, him being in Florida it's easy to hop a short flight to check him out personally if he needed to


                          has to be tricky and involved at this time of the year for trainers like todd..certainly adjustments along the way.. promising ones disappoint while a third stringer comes up with a big race and vaults himself towards the top of the list .. then if a lot turn out good placing them in the right preps around the country..these are the kind of problems any trainer would like to be in a position to have so not feeling sorry for him

                          Q. If todd did leave KB at tampa after the race who would handle his daily care ..another local trainer gets paid ? an assistant on Todd's staff ? understand ,as you said, him being in Florida it's easy to hop a short flight to check him out personally if he needed to


                          A. He would have his asst. trainer overseeing the horse. In todays world, they could film him from the stall to the track and back including cooling out afterwards. He could see as much as he requested to see. But yeah, when these types are getting closer to the Derby, he would most likely want to be with him.

                          Q. has to be tricky and involved at this time of the year for trainers like todd..certainly adjustments along the way.. promising ones disappoint while a third stringer comes up with a big race and vaults himself towards the top of the list .. then if a lot turn out good placing them in the right preps around the country..these are the kind of problems any trainer would like to be in a position to have so not feeling sorry for him


                          A. For sure. It's why it is so much fun to watch unfold. It's a full blown process that we get to watch.


                          Q.
                          these are the kind of problems any trainer would like to be in a position to have so not feeling sorry for him


                          A. Heck, I had fun doing it with claimers. Lol. I can't imagine how cool it would be with these type of horses.
                          Comment
                          • Madison
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-16-11
                            • 6442

                            #6243
                            Originally posted by JBEX
                            put this in my thread but meant to put it here


                            FRIDAY /ARMY MULE



                            gulfstream R9


                            #1 a j's memory (15-1)


                            makes his 2nd start and the big drop msw/mcl..horse cost a bunch so on the surface (bettors perspective) not good but then why is luis saez coming aboard to ride (paco lopez in debut)? trainer having a nice meet and has solid #'s in applicable categories..should take some money if he's live..drifting up to no-man's land wouldn't be a good sign
                            .
                            I just watched the replay. Horse was in contention early and it appeared to me that the jockey thought he had a horse under him. It looked to me like something went awry as he was promptly pulled up and eased up thereafter. ???
                            Comment
                            • Madison
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-16-11
                              • 6442

                              #6244
                              J's Memory. Picked (2) by the TVG Trackmaster??

                              Also 2nd Lasix which always raises my interest.
                              Comment
                              • JBEX
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-02-12
                                • 23421

                                #6245
                                he got about 5+ furlongs in and ,as you said Madison, something went wrong..also don't get how tm can pick him 2nd..ridiculous imo..you have to factor in an expensive auction purchase is up for saIe 2nd time out
                                but as I said saez riding makes it intriguing..
                                he was purchased as a yearling so I guess it's possible he was sold privately afterwards for a lot less..tough read
                                Comment
                                • Madison
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-16-11
                                  • 6442

                                  #6246
                                  Originally posted by JBEX
                                  he got about 5+ furlongs in and ,as you said Madison, something went wrong..also don't get how tm can pick him 2nd..ridiculous imo..you have to factor in an expensive auction purchase is up for saIe 2nd time out
                                  but as I said saez riding makes it intriguing..
                                  he was purchased as a yearling so I guess it's possible he was sold privately afterwards for a lot less..tough read
                                  Always appreciated. Just have a gut they're going to send him today. Made a small wager for kicks. Hopefully the ML sticks. Thx again.
                                  Comment
                                  • JBEX
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-02-12
                                    • 23421

                                    #6247
                                    Originally posted by Madison
                                    Always appreciated. Just have a gut they're going to send him today. Made a small wager for kicks. Hopefully the ML sticks. Thx again.
                                    no problem madison and bol..I actually hope he goes below the ml..think with this type of situation it's a good sign that they take some action
                                    Comment
                                    • JBEX
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-02-12
                                      • 23421

                                      #6248
                                      SATURDAY/ARMY MULE

                                      oaklawn

                                      R5 #11 stormin army (30-1) 3:35

                                      wish the post was better but I think at a price this one's worth a small shot




                                      .
                                      Comment
                                      • str
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-12-09
                                        • 11751

                                        #6249
                                        Originally posted by Madison
                                        I just watched the replay. Horse was in contention early and it appeared to me that the jockey thought he had a horse under him. It looked to me like something went awry as he was promptly pulled up and eased up thereafter. ???
                                        Originally posted by Madison
                                        J's Memory. Picked (2) by the TVG Trackmaster??

                                        Also 2nd Lasix which always raises my interest.
                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                        he got about 5+ furlongs in and ,as you said Madison, something went wrong..also don't get how tm can pick him 2nd..ridiculous imo..you have to factor in an expensive auction purchase is up for saIe 2nd time out
                                        but as I said saez riding makes it intriguing..
                                        he was purchased as a yearling so I guess it's possible he was sold privately afterwards for a lot less..tough read
                                        Originally posted by Madison
                                        Always appreciated. Just have a gut they're going to send him today. Made a small wager for kicks. Hopefully the ML sticks. Thx again.
                                        Yesterday, this horse broke a little flat, not bad, but not sharp, and just gives me the impression that it wants to settle early. The horse did try to contend around the far turn and actually had it finished up well, could have been right there. But he failed to switch leads after turning for home which had him running out of gas around the 1/8th pole, which makes sense. That is why he started to lug in especially after Saez hit him right handed.
                                        So he still doesn't really know how to run. I don't know if that is a soundness issue. Big drops will have you assume that but the lugging in seemed to me to be from getting tired using the same leg for too long. Saez could feel that and stopped pounding him and just let him finish out. He only got beat 2-3 lengths. Had he switched leads, it is not unreasonable to say he could have won. Couldn't see him gallop out so I just don't know about that.

                                        With Saez on him it was a fair assumption that maybe they did want him closer early yesterday, but without using his proper leads, I doubt he would have finished up either way.

                                        Interesting to see where he lands next out. If soundness is not the issue, or breathing, he can win that type of race if he learns to run more efficiently. But if it is one of those, you don't generally have time to wait for the learning curve and cutting him in half price wise would probably allow him to win even in spite of his shortcomings.
                                        We will just have to see where he runs next.

                                        Nice to hear from you Madison.

                                        GL and All the best.
                                        Last edited by str; 02-18-23, 08:06 AM.
                                        Comment
                                        • JBEX
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-02-12
                                          • 23421

                                          #6250
                                          thanks str


                                          I noticed both things you said and really wasn't a bad effort considering ..exposing him for $50k when they paid what they did can't be good .. maybe they just realize he's a good horse but well below what they thought he'd be..may offer some value next out as the not switching leads something that most don't know about


                                          you think that (assuming soundness) they might try him in allowance race instead? seems like for $50k someone might have something decent to work with should they claim him
                                          Comment
                                          • Madison
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-16-11
                                            • 6442

                                            #6251
                                            Originally posted by str
                                            Yesterday, this horse broke a little flat, not bad, but not sharp, and just gives me the impression that it wants to settle early. The horse did try to contend around the far turn and actually had it finished up well, could have been right there. But he failed to switch leads after turning for home which had him running out of gas around the 1/8th pole, which makes sense. That is why he started to lug in especially after Saez hit him right handed.
                                            So he still doesn't really know how to run. I don't know if that is a soundness issue. Big drops will have you assume that but the lugging in seemed to me to be from getting tired using the same leg for too long. Saez could feel that and stopped pounding him and just let him finish out. He only got beat 2-3 lengths. Had he switched leads, it is not unreasonable to say he could have won. Couldn't see him gallop out so I just don't know about that.

                                            With Saez on him it was a fair assumption that maybe they did want him closer early yesterday, but without using his proper leads, I doubt he would have finished up either way.

                                            Interesting to see where he lands next out. If soundness is not the issue, or breathing, he can win that type of race if he learns to run more efficiently. But if it is one of those, you don't generally have time to wait for the learning curve and cutting him in half price wise would probably allow him to win even in spite of his shortcomings.
                                            We will just have to see where he runs next.

                                            Nice to hear from you Madison.

                                            GL and All the best.
                                            Thanks Str. As always I plead a certain level of ignorance as my background is mostly hounds but here's what I think I saw.

                                            I got the feeling she is somewhat timid and doesn't like tight quarters (mostly inside in prior 2). Once they let her get mid track and get in semblance of a consistent stride I thought she ran pretty well. One thing about the hounds is that if they are trained early to run rail or wide they will do so throughout their careers. Who knowns with horses and jockeys what ride they might get next?

                                            Thanks again for all you gentlemen's insights. It's invaluable for me.
                                            Comment
                                            • Madison
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 09-16-11
                                              • 6442

                                              #6252
                                              One I've had my eye on

                                              FG R13 Crupi. Circa 7:15. Been running some pretty competitive MSW's at AQ & SAR. Slow but has some bottom. Tough spot moving up to 400K stakes but worth watching. They must think a lot of him.
                                              Comment
                                              • str
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-12-09
                                                • 11751

                                                #6253
                                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                                thanks str


                                                I noticed both things you said and really wasn't a bad effort considering ..exposing him for $50k when they paid what they did can't be good .. maybe they just realize he's a good horse but well below what they thought he'd be..may offer some value next out as the not switching leads something that most don't know about


                                                you think that (assuming soundness) they might try him in allowance race instead? seems like for $50k someone might have something decent to work with should they claim him

                                                He lost for 50k and did not look very polished in doing so. Void of speed, circled but hung most likely due to the lead problem. But what if he can't breath? Or what if he is unsound which has him not willing to switch?
                                                To raise him back up and protect him although safe for the overall investment, makes him most likely 15-1 next out and that does not work out often times.
                                                That trainer runs to win. I would assume he comes back in the same spot next out. If he drops off the last race, the flags are out on soundness or breathing, bleeding, whatever. And while a claim could still be profitable for the same price or less, the upside takes a hit with each passing defeat or funky effort.
                                                Someone would need to immediately manage him to "get out" on him as soon as possible. That happens all the time but every race run needs to be all about winning and not seeing if this or that might help while protecting him.
                                                Also, winning easily can be much easier on a horse " sometimes" than having to run your eyeballs out to win or just get beat.
                                                Just a guess, but running back for the same thing seems to make sense.
                                                Last edited by str; 02-19-23, 08:49 AM.
                                                Comment
                                                • str
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-12-09
                                                  • 11751

                                                  #6254
                                                  An addition to the last comment:

                                                  One thing I did not mention was that race finished up in 13.70
                                                  The beaten older filly's and mares finished up in 13.46 after going much much quicker early.
                                                  Because it kind of looked like a race collapse late on the front end, that could create debate as to how this horse actually finished up. Again, the horse could get claimed next out but I'm not sure anyone other than the connections are sure if that is wise or not. Interesting dilemma and it gives you a birds eye view into the game within the game which is claiming horses. As you can see, other than training your own, it's a full time job.

                                                  Got to admit, I loved it .Talk about constant action! It never ends.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JBEX
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                    • 23421

                                                    #6255
                                                    I actually looked at it the other way considering it was his debut..showed some potential and could improve with some experience..the lead switch may happen for him with experience but I'll yield to you on this lol..sounds like that's no guarantee and would certainly be one of the factors determining his fate going forward

                                                    i think the difference in time really says he's not up to higher company..wasn't exactly small by any means..interesting to equate the two class levels..mdn clm 50k boys vs older 35k n3l girls..guess the latter should avg a little faster but not that much..too many questions and I think there's a chance he might find success at around this level but it's far from a certainty ..maybe being taken up so abruptly in his debut was something serious .. he's something I think will be better off watching then speculating on



                                                    thanks str
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JBEX
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                      • 23421

                                                      #6256
                                                      SUNDAY/ARMY MULE


                                                      oaklawn

                                                      R8 #3 wild mule (7-2)

                                                      think he's in a little steep here but not impossible

                                                      this will be the last I cap any of his races..right way to do it if you like the sire is just to play him without any judgements..when the horse looks average or in over his head in the pp's that's the time the sire should overcome it and produce on occasion
                                                      Comment
                                                      • str
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                        • 11751

                                                        #6257
                                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                                        I actually looked at it the other way considering it was his debut..showed some potential and could improve with some experience..the lead switch may happen for him with experience but I'll yield to you on this lol..sounds like that's no guarantee and would certainly be one of the factors determining his fate going forward

                                                        i think the difference in time really says he's not up to higher company..wasn't exactly small by any means..interesting to equate the two class levels..mdn clm 50k boys vs older 35k n3l girls..guess the latter should avg a little faster but not that much..too many questions and I think there's a chance he might find success at around this level but it's far from a certainty ..maybe being taken up so abruptly in his debut was something serious .. he's something I think will be better off watching then speculating on



                                                        thanks str

                                                        I do see your point of looking at it the other way. And it is valid.

                                                        I think the biggest question is why did he start out at Md. 50k claiming to begin with?

                                                        That question leads me all over the place which has me probably overthinking it.

                                                        Welcome to the claiming game. Haha.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JBEX
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-02-12
                                                          • 23421

                                                          #6258
                                                          Originally posted by str
                                                          I do see your point of looking at it the other way. And it is valid.

                                                          I think the biggest question is why did he start out at Md. 50k claiming to begin with?

                                                          That question leads me all over the place which has me probably overthinking it.

                                                          Welcome to the claiming game. Haha.
                                                          yeah I see what you mean..maybe when you spend the kind of money they did whether (if) he gets taken
                                                          for $25k or $50k means a lot less to them..they don't want to be reminded of the bad investment..this could create an opportunity for someone if he drops another level..I have always thought this way for guys who train for big bucks owners and think you've mentioned it before..again it's all speculation but at least something to think about if the connections are considering putting in a claim
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Easy-Rider 66
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 02-14-12
                                                            • 36100

                                                            #6259
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Easy-Rider 66
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 02-14-12
                                                              • 36100

                                                              #6260
                                                              Hey STR: want to get your opinion on the Samy Camacho ride on the #3 Topper T in the above VID. Especially the last yards or so. THX in advance.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • str
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 11751

                                                                #6261
                                                                Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                                                Hey STR: want to get your opinion on the Samy Camacho ride on the #3 Topper T in the above VID. Especially the last yards or so. THX in advance.
                                                                Here we go EZ:

                                                                This horse was IMO a clear winner half way down the backside. Why? Because he was in complete control of his position, was there easily, in hand, and ready to be asked at anytime. I saw that from no others in the race.

                                                                At 46 seconds, on the replay, Camacho had to take up slightly because the horse in front switched to it's left lead, thus dropping inward about 3-4 feet. That put Camacho on the horses heels slightly. So he had to get back just a littler more. He then moves off the fence a little and the horse takes that as a signal to go. At 56 seconds on the video, Camacho looks back between his legs which tells me he wants to wait a bit before blowing by the leader that Camacho knew he could do. At 1:04 the leader has had enough and Camacho is getting the lead without asking his horse much.
                                                                Let me stop there for a second. I do not know if Camacho has ridden this horse before. If he has, he probably knew the horse would loaf once clear through the stretch. The way he rode the horse seems to show me that. If he had not, the trainer must had eluded to that while in the paddock. Either way, Camacho knew the hanging or loafing late with a clear lead was probably coming, it looked like.

                                                                So gaining, inheriting the lead at about 1:04, Camacho asks his horse fully, as he wants enough distance in front in case the horse loafs a bit which is highly probable. (Note that if the early speed horse had hung on longer, Camacho would have been more than happy to kill a little more time before making the lead.) That is evident by him looking back at the top of the stretch, making sure nobody else was flying up.

                                                                At 1:03-1:04 the horse, with a clear lead, really starts to hang, his action becomes more up and down instead of reaching out as far as possible. That is why Camacho starts showing him the whip. Just to try and make the horse think about picking up the bit again, the whip and race again, and not pulling up. And while that rarely works very much, it can work a little. Probably did here. I don't know about any whip rules or strike counts so I am not factoring that in.
                                                                So all in all, it seemed like a very professional ride that to some might feel looks like something different. But it sure looked like it was all on the horse to me, especially with his ears and his stride changing from ears back, and stretching out, to ears forward and more of a choppy stride.

                                                                At the finish line, I'm not sure why the announcer made it sound so dramatic. Maybe it surprised the announcer. But he was not going to lose.


                                                                That's what I saw. Please follow up if you have any questions.

                                                                All the best EZ,

                                                                str
                                                                Comment
                                                                • str
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-12-09
                                                                  • 11751

                                                                  #6262
                                                                  Not sure why this repeated.

                                                                  Weird.
                                                                  Last edited by str; 02-23-23, 08:41 AM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • str
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                                    • 11751

                                                                    #6263
                                                                    Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                                                    Originally posted by str
                                                                    <br>
                                                                    Here we go EZ:<br><br>This horse was IMO a clear winner half way down the backside. Why? Because he was in complete control of his position, was there easily, in hand, and ready to be asked at anytime. I saw that from no others in the race.<br><br>At 46 seconds, on the replay, Camacho had to take up slightly because the horse in front switched to it's left lead, thus dropping inward about 3-4 feet. That put Camacho on the horses heels slightly. So he had to get back just a littler more. He then moves off the fence a little and the horse takes that as a signal to go. At 56 seconds on the video, Camacho looks back between his legs which tells me he wants to wait a bit before blowing by the leader that Camacho knew he could do. At 1:04 the leader has had enough and Camacho is getting the lead without asking his horse much. <br>Let me stop there for a second. I do not know if Camacho has ridden this horse before. If he has, he probably knew the horse would loaf once clear through the stretch. The way he rode the horse seems to show me that. If he had not, the trainer must had eluded to that while in the paddock. Either way, Camacho knew the hanging or loafing late with a clear lead was probably coming, it looked like.<br> <br>So gaining, inheriting the lead at about 1:04, Camacho asks his horse fully, as he wants enough distance in front in case the horse loafs a bit which is highly probable. (Note that if the early speed horse had hung on longer, Camacho would have been more than happy to kill a little more time before making the lead.) That is evident by him looking back at the top of the stretch, making sure nobody else was flying up.<br><br>At 1:03-1:04 the horse, with a clear lead, really starts to hang, his action becomes more up and down instead of reaching out as far as possible. That is why Camacho starts showing him the whip. Just to try and make the horse think about picking up the bit again, the whip and race again, and not pulling up. And while that rarely works very much, it can work a little. Probably did here. I don't know about any whip rules or strike counts so I am not factoring that in.<br>So all in all, it seemed like a very professional ride that to some might feel looks like something different. But it sure looked like it was all on the horse to me, especially with his ears and his stride changing from ears back, and stretching out, to ears forward and more of a choppy stride. <br><br>At the finish line, I'm not sure why the announcer made it sound so dramatic. Maybe it surprised the announcer. But he was not going to lose. <br><br><br>That's what I saw. Please follow up if you have any questions.<br><br>All the best EZ,<br><br>str
                                                                    <br>
                                                                    <br>
                                                                    <br>
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Easy-Rider 66
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 02-14-12
                                                                      • 36100

                                                                      #6264
                                                                      OK STR thx for your time and detailed assessment. I thought to my eye that Camacho stopped riding near the end of the race and maybe the announcer was thinking the same thing. What you say makes sense. It's great to have a professional opinion here in the forum. Camacho one of the top riders on the TB Circuit. OK will ask for your opinion again come May 6th. THX.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • str
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                                        • 11751

                                                                        #6265
                                                                        Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                                                        OK STR thx for your time and detailed assessment. I thought to my eye that Camacho stopped riding near the end of the race and maybe the announcer was thinking the same thing. What you say makes sense. It's great to have a professional opinion here in the forum. Camacho one of the top riders on the TB Circuit. OK will ask for your opinion again come May 6th. THX.
                                                                        Well he kind of did stop riding, in that, it was not really doing any good. The horse was balking , kind of like a car that is still going but hesitating when you step on the gas. He was coaxing, but he knew he had enough room still to win. But the horse caused all the fuss.

                                                                        I spend the time I do breaking this stuff down because I am hopeful that when you, and all the readers go back and watch the replay, you will be able to see some of the things I am talking about. When that happens, you are really seeing things most can't see. In pro football, we watch a game but if you watched one with a former NFL quarterback, those guys can see the formations, the subtleties of where the safeties are, who is in motion dong what, and they can tell you what play is coming, or what the QB is switching off to, and where the ball is going, before the play starts. It is truly remarkable what all they can see, that we cannot.
                                                                        So, I try and pass that along for you guys so that maybe you will see some of these subtleties, that most do not, and it will make for a better understanding of a game so many including myself, love.
                                                                        I hope it helps.

                                                                        Thanks EZ !
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