Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

thought about this a little more this morning (rested brain).. percentage wise this is the same as 6f to a mile and very close to most of the other sprint - route stretchout distances barring 6f - 1 1/8 miles.. so looking at it this way these things happen quite often.. and since this was at belmont which is the only place you can race at beyond 1 mile on the dirt around 1 turn this would be a good place to keep the discussion about.. would have to think staying around one turn would make a difference when considering a horse trying to do this off a closing sprint..


I understand this happens but I've always gone by the school of thought to avoid these types even in situations where the horse has gotten the longer distance before.. I guess if you were not going to apply
this concept it would be under these circumstances.. not trying to knock your pick str so please don't take it that way.. I feel this is one of those critical things to understand when handicapping and something that there's probably no black and white answer to

The oddity of this race makes it unique and IMO not in the same category as any other type of stretch out.

Three months ago, these barely 3 year old horses were being prepped hard to run in 1 1/8m races with the hope of stretching out to 1 1/4 within a month. About 5 weeks later they are asked to stretch another 1/4 mile to a mile and a half. For all this to take place, one thing that is lacking is maturity. And going hand and hand with that is mature lungs and lung capacity. Most have not been given ample time to develop that. As a result, I am of the opinion that the pace of the Belmont will always tend to favor speed or stalkers.
Yesterday's winner got a rail trip, and the rail was a plus, and had finished up time wise, faster than any other 3 year old I'm pretty sure. He was able to stay within 6 or 7 lengths of the lead so as to not have to make up 10+ lengths. Favorites got outside trips and it just all came together.
If this was a 4 and up race, I think the things to look for would differ somewhat. But not pace IMO, as for me, it almost always makes the race.
That is how I see the Belmont. Such a unique situation for all the horses involved.

I think I answered the question but if not, please let me know.

[JBEX]

The oddity of this race makes it unique and IMO not in the same category as any other type of stretch out.

Three months ago, these barely 3 year old horses were being prepped hard to run in 1 1/8m races with the hope of stretching out to 1 1/4 within a month. About 5 weeks later they are asked to stretch another 1/4 mile to a mile and a half. For all this to take place, one thing that is lacking is maturity. And going hand and hand with that is mature lungs and lung capacity. Most have not been given ample time to develop that. As a result, I am of the opinion that the pace of the Belmont will always tend to favor speed or stalkers.
Yesterday's winner got a rail trip, and the rail was a plus, and had finished up time wise, faster than any other 3 year old I'm pretty sure. He was able to stay within 6 or 7 lengths of the lead so as to not have to make up 10+ lengths. Favorites got outside trips and it just all came together.
If this was a 4 and up race, I think the things to look for would differ somewhat. But not pace IMO, as for me, it almost always makes the race.
That is how I see the Belmont. Such a unique situation for all the horses involved.

I think I answered the question but if not, please let me know.

that is a perspective I had never thought of being just a handicapper.. guess what your saying is longer sustained deep closing ability is more challenging for a 3yo early in the year than for an older horse.. and the fact that the winner was able to stay reasonably close to the front and closed the last 3/8th's of his prior race as fast as he did it just kind of all came together for him including the rail trip


as far as the more common deep closing /closing sprinter (just at belmont) going at least 1/4 mile further would you say, generally speaking, that horse will have a tougher time adapting to the extra distance vs the early /presser type horse ? funny when you just start handicapping and you see those way off the pace types come roaring down the stretch you think to yourself, man is he gonna love going further.. just an easy conclusion to draw but I've always thought that doesn't equate to that particular horse getting a mile or further (assuming aforementioned race was 6f).. be interested to hear what you think about only a furlong stretchout to 7f for that runner.. I would render a guess that a half to 1 furlong longer would at least be neutral but the mile too much

[str]

that is a perspective I had never thought of being just a handicapper.. guess what your saying is longer sustained deep closing ability is more challenging for a 3yo early in the year than for an older horse.. and the fact that the winner was able to stay reasonably close to the front and closed the last 3/8th's of his prior race as fast as he did it just kind of all came together for him including the rail trip


as far as the more common deep closing /closing sprinter (just at belmont) going at least 1/4 mile further would you say, generally speaking, that horse will have a tougher time adapting to the extra distance vs the early /presser type horse ? funny when you just start handicapping and you see those way off the pace types come roaring down the stretch you think to yourself, man is he gonna love going further.. just an easy conclusion to draw but I've always thought that doesn't equate to that particular horse getting a mile or further (assuming aforementioned race was 6f).. be interested to hear what you think about only a furlong stretchout to 7f for that runner.. I would render a guess that a half to 1 furlong longer would at least be neutral but the mile too much

Q. that is a perspective I had never thought of being just a handicapper.. guess what your saying is longer sustained deep closing ability is more challenging for a 3yo early in the year than for an older horse.. and the fact that the winner was able to stay reasonably close to the front and closed the last 3/8th's of his prior race as fast as he did it just kind of all came together for him including the rail trip

A. Yes. The stars aligned for him. My bet was that the odds of all that happening for him were much better than his actual betting odds. That and he was the fastest finishing 3 year old not only in the race but in the country according to times.
Hopefully, many here know that when they see this lock, lock, lock, stuff, it's all BS. That crap is a look at me thing. The only lock in horse racing is you have to have a lot of things go right to win a race. That pick made sense, had value and it worked out this time. That's how I see it.
Q. as far as the more common deep closing /closing sprinter (just at belmont) going at least 1/4 mile further would you say, generally speaking, that horse will have a tougher time adapting to the extra distance vs the early /presser type horse ?

A. Yes. That is the typical scenario.

Q. funny when you just start handicapping and you see those way off the pace types come roaring down the stretch you think to yourself, man is he gonna love going further.

A. I know. I remember thinking exactly that when I first started handicapping.

Q. just an easy conclusion to draw but I've always thought that doesn't equate to that particular horse getting a mile or further (assuming aforementioned race was 6f).

A. I agree with that.

Q. be interested to hear what you think about only a furlong stretchout to 7f for that runner.. I would render a guess that a half to 1 furlong longer would at least be neutral but the mile too much

A. For the closer, from 6F to the 6 1/2 or 7F is not too difficult. Most but not all handle it well.

The mile is a different story. They will almost always be closer early, like mid pack instead of wayback, but many of those just do not fire.
Finding the best distance is the trick. Then finding the best stretch out distance and or turn back distance. If a trainer can nail that down, it's fun to watch.
Sounds like you have a solid understanding of all that.

[JBEX]

ok str glad to hear that generally speaking my approach makes sense but of course they'll always be a few anomalies..thanks again

[JBEX]

Geez, what a weirdly run race.

Seems your horse was a solid pick but too many things to overcome to win that race.

The horse is just learning and relax is not quite understood yet. That could be a byproduct of the blks. on the 1st two races, I don't know for sure though. He was trying to relax, but was not doing too good of a job of it early on and that rider on the outside sends his horse at the 5/8ths pole. Weird. Then, the other outside horse decides to send. Again, weird. Your horse had every chance to quit and be discouraged but did not. Ran well but had a very tough trip dealing with all that took place.
He is probably worth a bet back unless bet down at the same level. Hopefully he can lay just off the pace, relax a bit more and go when asked. Looks like he should be able to do that. Maybe his next race will be more typical instead of horses running for the lead all down the backside.
As for the angle, you know I like stretch outs and he did not disappoint. I have to admit, I have never understood blks. off very well. I guess it was because I started my horses out with them off 95% of the time and added them when and if needed. I see no point in running a firster in blinkers unless you are all out to win 1st time out or the horse is somewhat goofy about their surroundings. But plenty of people do it so I guess it's all about how you learned the game.
All in all, a solid try and play as far as I'm concerned.
Nice job JBEX.

hey str


just figured I'd give you an update on this one.. I showed you a replay on 4/21..came in 2nd by a neck at 4-1 on 5/18.. missed it because I can't figure out what's going on with stable alerts.. interestingly enough they put the blinkers back on for the last race .. running again today but value's not there now.. gulfstream R5 #6 notorious nick(9-5)

[shortasssam]

Years ago when I played the horses I would always check the paddock for visual inspection of the horses and after awhile I would see certain people around. When the horses left for the post parade they would be following a certain horse out. I'd be heading out also but to see the horses on the track. Come close to bet time I'd see certain people that I'd seen before but now all dressed up. I told my buddy "I'm on the 3, last time I seen these people dressed up they were getting their picture taken, I'm capping them, I'm on the 3". Coincidence or not, the 3 won paying $9.20. I used to only bet to win and still do when I play them time to time but making that connection cashed for me and saved me from losing my win bet on another horse. I soon made that a capping must and seen many connections, family, friends, owners family for picture time etc and cashed many winners from it, the biggest paying $23 something. It's all part of the puzzle of trying to win.

[shortasssam]

Being in the business I am, I talk to a lot of trainers and owners from a neutral perspective, and a perfect example is today. One half of a partnership will be betting a sizable amount on their horse in an upcoming stakes race, while the other is less confident and won't be making a wager. The man making the bet told me he thinks his horse is going to win no matter what odds it goes off at, and while this may be true, it's more blind loyalty than anything else.

But to sort of put this all together, I sat behind a trainer I spoke with a few weeks back when a horse went through his workout and he said there is no way he can't win his next race. The next race comes around and I see said trainer at the track, and follow him to the machine. Sure enough, a guy that rarely bets his ponies puts 300 on his horse to win, and it does by 5 lengths.

So I guess the moral of the story is, while it happens every now and then, as STR said, it certainly isn't reliable, and if you want to definitely follow it, you better get to know some people and start talking around.

Finally, I have found this to be reliant. If you ever can figure out a jockey's family, follow them to the window and see what they do. I've done this a few time, and nine times out of ten it will give you a horse to leave off your exata ticket or win ticket. For whatever reason, these folks bet sizable amounts of money (which if you're familiar with my home track of Penn you know can move the odds quickly) on their cousin/brother/dad/husband/son's horse, only to have it finish no where in contention. Nice way to find some overlays.

Years ago when I played the horses I would always check the paddock for visual inspection of the horses and after awhile I would see certain people around. When the horses left for the post parade they would be following a certain horse out. I'd be heading out also but to see the horses on the track. Come close to bet time I'd see certain people that I'd seen before but now all dressed up. I told my buddy "I'm on the 3, last time I seen these people dressed up they were getting their picture taken, I'm capping them, I'm on the 3". Coincidence or not, the 3 won paying $9.20. I used to only bet to win and still do when I play them time to time but making that connection cashed for me and saved me from losing my win bet on another horse. I soon made that a capping must and seen many connections, family, friends, owners family for picture time etc and cashed many winners from it, the biggest paying $23 something. It's all part of the puzzle of trying to win.

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[str]

hey str


just figured I'd give you an update on this one.. I showed you a replay on 4/21..came in 2nd by a neck at 4-1 on 5/18.. missed it because I can't figure out what's going on with stable alerts.. interestingly enough they put the blinkers back on for the last race .. running again today but value's not there now.. gulfstream R5 #6 notorious nick(9-5)

Blinkers on, then off, then on? WTF? I've been gone for a while but blinker cup size and shape were never regulated in my years anywhere on the east coast. You can go full cups, 3/4 cups with diamonds cut into then so as to allow the horse to see a horse coming in a small degree, to cheaters which are about an inch of cup at most which is damn near no blinkers at all. So, I just don't get that.

I assume that the horse has learned to relax at least a bit more over a couple of more starts and if well placed by the trainer which the low odds indicate, should have run well.
Thanks for the update JBEX.

[str]

Years ago when I played the horses I would always check the paddock for visual inspection of the horses and after awhile I would see certain people around. When the horses left for the post parade they would be following a certain horse out. I'd be heading out also but to see the horses on the track. Come close to bet time I'd see certain people that I'd seen before but now all dressed up. I told my buddy "I'm on the 3, last time I seen these people dressed up they were getting their picture taken, I'm capping them, I'm on the 3". Coincidence or not, the 3 won paying $9.20. I used to only bet to win and still do when I play them time to time but making that connection cashed for me and saved me from losing my win bet on another horse. I soon made that a capping must and seen many connections, family, friends, owners family for picture time etc and cashed many winners from it, the biggest paying $23 something. It's all part of the puzzle of trying to win.

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There are some outfits that try and do that. People do look for that . My experience with that is that showy families, that is, look at me types will do this sometimes. They hoot and holler when they win to make sure everyone sees them but slide out the side door when they lose.
So please make no mistake. They might think they have a nice chance that day, but nobody, and I mean nobody, knows that they will win beforehand . It just doesn't work like that. Too many things are out of any one person's control to take that stand. They might say it, but like I said, it is usually a look at me thing.

Quick story: I'm running a horse one day and a fan runs up to me and says I know you love your horse today. I said, how? He said because you have new shoes on. I asked him how he knew that and he says he checks the soles of trainers shoes when they leave the paddock to see who is wearing new shoes for the picture. I told him, my horse does have a shot, but I have no idea if he is going to win . He said, yes you do and I am going to bet him big. I just said, OK , and that was that.
Well, my horse did win and he comes running down to the winners circle and says to me, you knew all along didn't you. At that point there was no telling him anything because he was sure he was right and I was not telling him the truth. So I just said, good job, I guess you figured it out.
I had a horse in later on that did not hit the board. Same new shoes although a few races old. Hope he didn't give it all back.
Truth was, I needed new shoes so I bought a pair. I mean, who looks at shoes in a win picture? But hey, he cashed his ticket. So I say, whatever works but be careful with how much stock you put into it.
I never have and never will say a horse WILL win. But I will say a horse should run well. If I say "very well", that is about as strong as I can say it. That is my code for the "like-o-meter".
Hope that helps.
Welcome to the horse forum. If as you read through and I see you are near the beginning from the quote you posted, feel free to ask questions if something is not clear to you. Best of luck!

[mrginandtonic]

Good morning Sir, have a question about Maximum Security who ran yesterday. According to the chart and I quote “ MAXIMUM SECURITY lunged slightly and stumbled at the start, quickly recovered, set a pressured pace on the inside, dueled with KING FOR A DAY on the far turn, briefly inched away in upper stretch, then dug in gamely inside through the final furlong and yielded grudgingly”. And according to his trainer, he thinks that the stumbling caused him the race. And I don’t know if you have read news about MS, prior to entering MS to the race, he said something about not feeling right so he ordered some blood test and test came back normal so finally he decided to entered. Just want to get your thoughts on this? He lost by about 1 length.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good morning Sir, have a question about Maximum Security who ran yesterday. According to the chart and I quote “ MAXIMUM SECURITY lunged slightly and stumbled at the start, quickly recovered, set a pressured pace on the inside, dueled with KING FOR A DAY on the far turn, briefly inched away in upper stretch, then dug in gamely inside through the final furlong and yielded grudgingly”. And according to his trainer, he thinks that the stumbling caused him the race. And I don’t know if you have read news about MS, prior to entering MS to the race, he said something about not feeling right so he ordered some blood test and test came back normal so finally he decided to entered. Just want to get your thoughts on this? He lost by about 1 length.

Interested to get STR's Take. You can watch the reply STR if you want on the Monmouth Park website. R10 on June 16th.

[str]

Good morning Sir, have a question about Maximum Security who ran yesterday. According to the chart and I quote “ MAXIMUM SECURITY lunged slightly and stumbled at the start, quickly recovered, set a pressured pace on the inside, dueled with KING FOR A DAY on the far turn, briefly inched away in upper stretch, then dug in gamely inside through the final furlong and yielded grudgingly”. And according to his trainer, he thinks that the stumbling caused him the race. And I don’t know if you have read news about MS, prior to entering MS to the race, he said something about not feeling right so he ordered some blood test and test came back normal so finally he decided to entered. Just want to get your thoughts on this? He lost by about 1 length.

Hi Mr. GandT. Always a pleasure.

Before I answer, I kick myself for not writing something I had thought about writing right after the Belmont. We have all talked about it before but it needs to be a mindset with handicappers.
When horses like Max Sec. come back in the summer after pointing for a specific day and restart their campaign towards the next objective, they are not in the same mental or physical zone they were in early May. They cannot possibly be.

When you reach the height that MS reached in early May and then suddenly stop pointing towards a race, you let down a bit, you back off a bit, you regroup a bit. That is exactly what happened here. They went nice and easy for a couple of weeks with no direction, then worked a 1/2 in I think 53, which this horse does frequently, then the trainer requested blood work, which unless it is in a routine case, is never a good sign, then works another slow 1/2 several days before the race and runs. Trainers just don't order blood work after a workout unless there is a reason. Maybe he went back to the track kind of dull after the work, or didn't eat like he normally does. It was nothing obvious to most, but very obvious to the trainer who watches him every morning. Probably to the groom and exercise rider as well.

Let's step back for a minute.

Exactly why did he run in that race? The answer is, he had to run somewhere before the Haskell. The Haskell became the objective, NOT the race the other day. The race the other day was a huge pain in the ass for Servis and you can tell by his answers that he felt that way. He said "I think his next race will be better. I needed to get that out of the way."
He was trying to win the race with about 80% of the horse that he ran in the Derby. Now, I am not blaming him or anything close to that. He had no other options. He had to run somewhere to try and rebuild towards an objective. But he caught a horse that is climbing the ladder and maturing at just the wrong time.
Did the stumble cost him? Well, I will say that of all my horses that ever stumbled out of the gate, I would have signed a contract if they all could have recovered a quickly and cleanly as he did. He was fine, ears up and relaxed around the 1st turn. He was forced to go faster the 2nd 1/4 of a mile than the 1st 1/4 of a mile. He was pushed to stay in front from the 1/2 mile pole home. I think it was those things that led to him ultimately getting tired and out of air the last 1/8th of a mile. Too me, he showed his class drawing off when they turned for home. He reached deep. He dug in. He did what good horses do. But he was worn down late. And he will indeed be better next out.

So, IMO, no the stumble did not cost him the race . Honestly, I think it only could have if MS figured to be 3 in front with a clean break and walk the dog in 24-47 and change or 48 and be in hand to the 1/4 pole. And Bravo is not the kind of rider to let that happen at Monmouth very often if ever.
I probably would have said the same thing he did if I were in his place. What's he going to do, knock his horse or call out the owner for not running back in the TP? I don't think so. So he said what he had to say to get past the interview.

We must remember that when the objective is a race down the road, the horse building towards that race will rarely, and I should say never, be the same horse building towards an objective, that they are the day of the objective. They can peak too fast, but never off a career point to effort like the Derby was.

Secretariat lost in the summer. So did Seattle Slew. More recently, Arrogate and American Pharoah. The list is long with these types losing in the summer of these horses when backed off to reset the focus towards the next objective. And the list will never stop growing because 75-80% of themselves against the wrong improving horse at the wrong time will continue to happen.

That's my take Mr.GandT. Do you and the others agree?

[JBEX]

Hi Mr. GandT. Always a pleasure.

Before I answer, I kick myself for not writing something I had thought about writing right after the Belmont. We have all talked about it before but it needs to be a mindset with handicappers.
When horses like Max Sec. come back in the summer after pointing for a specific day and restart their campaign towards the next objective, they are not in the same mental or physical zone they were in early May. They cannot possibly be.

When you reach the height that MS reached in early May and then suddenly stop pointing towards a race, you let down a bit, you back off a bit, you regroup a bit. That is exactly what happened here. They went nice and easy for a couple of weeks with no direction, then worked a 1/2 in I think 53, which this horse does frequently, then the trainer requested blood work, which unless it is in a routine case, is never a good sign, then works another slow 1/2 several days before the race and runs. Trainers just don't order blood work after a workout unless there is a reason. Maybe he went back to the track kind of dull after the work, or didn't eat like he normally does. It was nothing obvious to most, but very obvious to the trainer who watches him every morning. Probably to the groom and exercise rider as well.

Let's step back for a minute.

Exactly why did he run in that race? The answer is, he had to run somewhere before the Haskell. The Haskell became the objective, NOT the race the other day. The race the other day was a huge pain in the ass for Servis and you can tell by his answers that he felt that way. He said "I think his next race will be better. I needed to get that out of the way."
He was trying to win the race with about 80% of the horse that he ran in the Derby. Now, I am not blaming him or anything close to that. He had no other options. He had to run somewhere to try and rebuild towards an objective. But he caught a horse that is climbing the ladder and maturing at just the wrong time.
Did the stumble cost him? Well, I will say that of all my horses that ever stumbled out of the gate, I would have signed a contract if they all could have recovered a quickly and cleanly as he did. He was fine, ears up and relaxed around the 1st turn. He was forced to go faster the 2nd 1/4 of a mile than the 1st 1/4 of a mile. He was pushed to stay in front from the 1/2 mile pole home. I think it was those things that led to him ultimately getting tired and out of air the last 1/8th of a mile. Too me, he showed his class drawing off when they turned for home. He reached deep. He dug in. He did what good horses do. But he was worn down late. And he will indeed be better next out.

So, IMO, no the stumble did not cost him the race . Honestly, I think it only could have if MS figured to be 3 in front with a clean break and walk the dog in 24-47 and change or 48 and be in hand to the 1/4 pole. And Bravo is not the kind of rider to let that happen at Monmouth very often if ever.
I probably would have said the same thing he did if I were in his place. What's he going to do, knock his horse or call out the owner for not running back in the TP? I don't think so. So he said what he had to say to get past the interview.

We must remember that when the objective is a race down the road, the horse building towards that race will rarely, and I should say never, be the same horse building towards an objective, that they are the day of the objective. They can peak too fast, but never off a career point to effort like the Derby was.

Secretariat lost in the summer. So did Seattle Slew. More recently, Arrogate and American Pharoah. The list is long with these types losing in the summer of these horses when backed off to reset the focus towards the next objective. And the list will never stop growing because 75-80% of themselves against the wrong improving horse at the wrong time will continue to happen.

That's my take Mr.GandT. Do you and the others agree?

I think servis should be very happy with that effort.. he's aiming for bigger things and in losing (figuring derby as a win) might be the best race he's run.. the figure for this race was the fastest two turn beyer of the 3yo season (102) by a point and I'm guessing the pace was the fastest he's been against up to now.. losing by a length no shame under these circumstances.. should be a good rematch if they both go in the haskell.. with the pedigree of king for a day and the weak crop this year (low beyers) sure they're thinking travers with him

[shortasssam]

There are some outfits that try and do that. People do look for that . My experience with that is that showy families, that is, look at me types will do this sometimes. They hoot and holler when they win to make sure everyone sees them but slide out the side door when they lose.
So please make no mistake. They might think they have a nice chance that day, but nobody, and I mean nobody, knows that they will win beforehand . It just doesn't work like that. Too many things are out of any one person's control to take that stand. They might say it, but like I said, it is usually a look at me thing.

Quick story: I'm running a horse one day and a fan runs up to me and says I know you love your horse today. I said, how? He said because you have new shoes on. I asked him how he knew that and he says he checks the soles of trainers shoes when they leave the paddock to see who is wearing new shoes for the picture. I told him, my horse does have a shot, but I have no idea if he is going to win . He said, yes you do and I am going to bet him big. I just said, OK , and that was that.
Well, my horse did win and he comes running down to the winners circle and says to me, you knew all along didn't you. At that point there was no telling him anything because he was sure he was right and I was not telling him the truth. So I just said, good job, I guess you figured it out.
I had a horse in later on that did not hit the board. Same new shoes although a few races old. Hope he didn't give it all back.
Truth was, I needed new shoes so I bought a pair. I mean, who looks at shoes in a win picture? But hey, he cashed his ticket. So I say, whatever works but be careful with how much stock you put into it.
I never have and never will say a horse WILL win. But I will say a horse should run well. If I say "very well", that is about as strong as I can say it. That is my code for the "like-o-meter".
Hope that helps.
Welcome to the horse forum. If as you read through and I see you are near the beginning from the quote you posted, feel free to ask questions if something is not clear to you. Best of luck!

Thank you and an extra thank you for this great thread. I haven't had the time to read it all but I will...Cheers

[mrginandtonic]

Hi Mr. GandT. Always a pleasure.

Before I answer, I kick myself for not writing something I had thought about writing right after the Belmont. We have all talked about it before but it needs to be a mindset with handicappers.
When horses like Max Sec. come back in the summer after pointing for a specific day and restart their campaign towards the next objective, they are not in the same mental or physical zone they were in early May. They cannot possibly be.

When you reach the height that MS reached in early May and then suddenly stop pointing towards a race, you let down a bit, you back off a bit, you regroup a bit. That is exactly what happened here. They went nice and easy for a couple of weeks with no direction, then worked a 1/2 in I think 53, which this horse does frequently, then the trainer requested blood work, which unless it is in a routine case, is never a good sign, then works another slow 1/2 several days before the race and runs. Trainers just don't order blood work after a workout unless there is a reason. Maybe he went back to the track kind of dull after the work, or didn't eat like he normally does. It was nothing obvious to most, but very obvious to the trainer who watches him every morning. Probably to the groom and exercise rider as well.

Let's step back for a minute.

Exactly why did he run in that race? The answer is, he had to run somewhere before the Haskell. The Haskell became the objective, NOT the race the other day. The race the other day was a huge pain in the ass for Servis and you can tell by his answers that he felt that way. He said "I think his next race will be better. I needed to get that out of the way."
He was trying to win the race with about 80% of the horse that he ran in the Derby. Now, I am not blaming him or anything close to that. He had no other options. He had to run somewhere to try and rebuild towards an objective. But he caught a horse that is climbing the ladder and maturing at just the wrong time.
Did the stumble cost him? Well, I will say that of all my horses that ever stumbled out of the gate, I would have signed a contract if they all could have recovered a quickly and cleanly as he did. He was fine, ears up and relaxed around the 1st turn. He was forced to go faster the 2nd 1/4 of a mile than the 1st 1/4 of a mile. He was pushed to stay in front from the 1/2 mile pole home. I think it was those things that led to him ultimately getting tired and out of air the last 1/8th of a mile. Too me, he showed his class drawing off when they turned for home. He reached deep. He dug in. He did what good horses do. But he was worn down late. And he will indeed be better next out.

So, IMO, no the stumble did not cost him the race . Honestly, I think it only could have if MS figured to be 3 in front with a clean break and walk the dog in 24-47 and change or 48 and be in hand to the 1/4 pole. And Bravo is not the kind of rider to let that happen at Monmouth very often if ever.
I probably would have said the same thing he did if I were in his place. What's he going to do, knock his horse or call out the owner for not running back in the TP? I don't think so. So he said what he had to say to get past the interview.

We must remember that when the objective is a race down the road, the horse building towards that race will rarely, and I should say never, be the same horse building towards an objective, that they are the day of the objective. They can peak too fast, but never off a career point to effort like the Derby was.

Secretariat lost in the summer. So did Seattle Slew. More recently, Arrogate and American Pharoah. The list is long with these types losing in the summer of these horses when backed off to reset the focus towards the next objective. And the list will never stop growing because 75-80% of themselves against the wrong improving horse at the wrong time will continue to happen.

That's my take Mr.GandT. Do you and the others agree?

Thank you sir for the detail and insightful explanation. I agree with you and I am not concern at all that MS lost; the fact that he only lost by 1 length after stumbling at the start, that is very encouraging. He recovered so quickly shows his athleticism. My concern about MS was that fact the trainer did not like "something" and he ordered some blood test. And you fully explained that to me. I also believe that trainers can see things that sometimes tests will not show. It could be physiologically or mentally with the horse. With that said, it is encouraging to see Servis and you both think MS will be better next out. As far as I can see, MS is the best 3 year old. He has now run 4 solid races with triple Beyer speed figure. He got a 100 for the Pegasus. The winner King for a Day got 102. No other horse has done what he has done so far. I know you are not a speed figure person, but I just want to point that out for those of us who handicap speed figures as a tool. I can't wait to see what he is capable of doing as he matures. Thanks again for taking the time to educate all of us.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was told Saturday by The Stronach Group, owner of Santa Anita Park, to vacate his stalls at the Arcadia, Calif., racetrack after the euthanasia of American Currency, a horse he claimed for $20,000 two starts back. American Currency sustained fractured sesamoids in his left front ankle at the beginning of a breeze on the infield training track.

American Currency was the fourth horse trained by Hollendorfer to suffer a fatal injury racing or training at the Santa Anita winter and spring meetings that began on Dec. 26.

Santa Anita has been under intense scrutiny by local and national media and animal rights groups since a spike of fatal injuries began early this year during an unusually cold and wet winter in Southern California. American Currency became the 30th horse to die during training or racing at Santa Anita



Any thought on this story STR?

[str]

Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was told Saturday by The Stronach Group, owner of Santa Anita Park, to vacate his stalls at the Arcadia, Calif., racetrack after the euthanasia of American Currency, a horse he claimed for $20,000 two starts back. American Currency sustained fractured sesamoids in his left front ankle at the beginning of a breeze on the infield training track.

American Currency was the fourth horse trained by Hollendorfer to suffer a fatal injury racing or training at the Santa Anita winter and spring meetings that began on Dec. 26.

Santa Anita has been under intense scrutiny by local and national media and animal rights groups since a spike of fatal injuries began early this year during an unusually cold and wet winter in Southern California. American Currency became the 30th horse to die during training or racing at Santa Anita



Any thought on this story STR?

I never knew him when I was there. He is a HOF'er and scrutiny had to be applied for that to happen. But honestly, without knowing a whole lot more about him, there is no way I could fairly judge the situation.

What I will say is, the pressure is really on out there and it is showing. I did hear a Baffert interview about this yesterday and he dropped a key word or two to separate himself from Jerry. Didn't surprise me though.
The dog eat dog world that is the racetrack is starting to rear it's ugly head to the public Easy.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I never knew him when I was there. He is a HOF'er and scrutiny had to be applied for that to happen. But honestly, without knowing a whole lot more about him, there is no way I could fairly judge the situation.

What I will say is, the pressure is really on out there and it is showing. I did hear a Baffert interview about this yesterday and he dropped a key word or two to separate himself from Jerry. Didn't surprise me though.
The dog eat dog world that is the racetrack is starting to rear it's ugly head to the public Easy.

OK STR. Thx. Just wonder if Hollendorfer is being made the scapegoat, or maybe it's justified. Who knows?

[str]

OK STR. Thx. Just wonder if Hollendorfer is being made the scapegoat, or maybe it's justified. Who knows?

Without knowing all that is needed to know, a scapegoat is my best guess. But his rash of breakdowns needs to have answers. Not that he is the lone ranger, but plenty of people are asking and he is not answering so one is left to draw their own conclusions. But the flip side is that when another big name trainer was having worse issues a few years ago, he was not asked to leave. Then again, the negative publicity behind all that did not have the teeth then that it does now. Like I said, dog eat dog.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Without knowing all that is needed to know, a scapegoat is my best guess. But his rash of breakdowns needs to have answers. Not that he is the lone ranger, but plenty of people are asking and he is not answering so one is left to draw their own conclusions. But the flip side is that when another big name trainer was having worse issues a few years ago, he was not asked to leave. Then again, the negative publicity behind all that did not have the teeth then that it does now. Like I said, dog eat dog.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, ruled off The Stronach Group’s tracks Saturday including his California bases at Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields, is still welcome on the opposite coast.

The New York Racing Association issued a statement Sunday indicating Hollendorfer is still approved for stall space this summer at Saratoga. He recently started a small string of horses at Belmont Park overseen by assistant Don Chatlos, a Breeders’ Cup-winning trainer in his own right.

“NYRA will honor those agreements and he will be permitted to stable and enter horses at both Belmont and Saratoga,” said Pat McKenna, NYRA’s director of communications, in the statement.

Among those with Hollendorfer’s New York string are Rowayton, a last out allowance winner targeting the July 6 Dwyer Stakes (G3) for 3-year-olds around one turn, and the sophomore filly Brill, who according to NYRA’s stakes coordinator Andrew Byrnes may appear in the July 5 Victory Ride Stakes also at Belmont Park.


Looks Like NYRA agrees with your best guess STR.

[str]

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, ruled off The Stronach Group’s tracks Saturday including his California bases at Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields, is still welcome on the opposite coast.

The New York Racing Association issued a statement Sunday indicating Hollendorfer is still approved for stall space this summer at Saratoga. He recently started a small string of horses at Belmont Park overseen by assistant Don Chatlos, a Breeders’ Cup-winning trainer in his own right.

“NYRA will honor those agreements and he will be permitted to stable and enter horses at both Belmont and Saratoga,” said Pat McKenna, NYRA’s director of communications, in the statement.

Among those with Hollendorfer’s New York string are Rowayton, a last out allowance winner targeting the July 6 Dwyer Stakes (G3) for 3-year-olds around one turn, and the sophomore filly Brill, who according to NYRA’s stakes coordinator Andrew Byrnes may appear in the July 5 Victory Ride Stakes also at Belmont Park.


Looks Like NYRA agrees with your best guess STR.

I suppose they do but they have their own problems to try and resolve. Adding a barn full of horses will help fill races, although not much but it can't hurt.
Management will pay close attention but I doubt they will need to. Why? Because most actions have a reaction. Often times, an overreaction. It will be really interesting to see this trainer make decisions on his training techniques in the next couple of months. By that I mean, if he alters his style when he comes east.
Trainers from Calif, if judged as a whole tend to train their horses harder than those from the east. I witnessed that for decades first hand in the morning . Also, number of 3/4 mile works as well as the amount of time in between them in some cases will show you that. But they also work faster. Some of that is the track but not all of it. Let's just call it what it is. Cal. trainers push for speed, speed, speed. That was always what they worked towards and I haven't seen enough change in that to call it anything else.

I would guess that he will lean towards going a little easier on his horses. I say that because every trainer on the grounds will be watching in the morning. And the claiming trainers will watch very closely. If he goes that route, and my guess is he will, it will adversely affect a handful of them possibly but no question some and most likely many more will really respond positively from that. And it will show quick results for those that do. Watch for some of his horses, if he backs off the long fast works to win a couple in a row or improve their figures. Not all, but some at least.

Also, it will be human nature for him to want to start off fast which will help silence all the talk surrounding him. He cannot afford to have horses run poorly or not finish. People would be saying he is off the meds and can't win if he does not show positive results right away. Not that I believe that, but this is todays world and that is the crap you have to live with these days. I would expect him to be aggressive placing his claimers. It will give him a short term license to steal. I would expect nothing less from him then to take full advantage of that. I know I would have.
Hope that helps.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for the insights STR. Will be interesting to see how Jerry Fares on East Coast.

[JBEX]

asked you this 7/28/18 and below is your response.. the carter handicap at aqueduct wound up being his last race and he'll be standing at hill n dale in kentucky for $10k lsf .. remember you commented you were real impressed with him in that race.. showed you a close up picture and you said he had that killer look about him.. off to the good life lol....

one other question regarding army
mule..considering that he cost 800k
is 3/3 and won those races by a combined 22 lengths(the last being the carter handicap at aqueduct by 6+)..they were quite spread out though and you felt he probably had some issues..he's 4yo and if he's not ready to return this year do you think they're pondering putting him out to stud.. would you want to bring him back as a 5yo even if he was very sound ?? have to think he's established quite a bit of value with what he's done and what he cost..he's a ridgeling if that means anything..heard many of those turned out to be solid sire's including one of the all-timers a p indy

I think that decision would be based on exactly what was wrong with him. Obviously something is.

Some things are able to be dealt and if they go bad, they are not catastrophic while others , if they go bad could be catastrophic.

I think that the problem calls the shot.

If he can make it back, the BC sprint would seal the deal. Just have no idea of if that could happen this year.

Racing at 5 might not be terrible figuring he would only run 2-3 times.

Guess it's all about the timing.

[Easy-Rider 66]

n reversal, NYRA will disallow Hollendorfer runners

In an about face from a week ago, the New York Racing Association will not allow Jerry Hollendorfer to run horses at its tracks under his name, the Hall of Fame trainer and his attorney told Daily Racing Form on Saturday Guess NYRA had second thoughts.

[str]

asked you this 7/28/18 and below is your response.. the carter handicap at aqueduct wound up being his last race and he'll be standing at hill n dale in kentucky for $10k lsf .. remember you commented you were real impressed with him in that race.. showed you a close up picture and you said he had that killer look about him.. off to the good life lol....

one other question regarding army
mule..considering that he cost 800k
is 3/3 and won those races by a combined 22 lengths(the last being the carter handicap at aqueduct by 6+)..they were quite spread out though and you felt he probably had some issues..he's 4yo and if he's not ready to return this year do you think they're pondering putting him out to stud.. would you want to bring him back as a 5yo even if he was very sound ?? have to think he's established quite a bit of value with what he's done and what he cost..he's a ridgeling if that means anything..heard many of those turned out to be solid sire's including one of the all-timers a p indy

If he was scheduled to miss a year, I do not know why it would be advantageous to run him at 5 with such a large gap between races.

He has shown a lot and honestly, unless he could win a Breeders Cup race, I'm not sure what the point is. He has serious issues that could become catastrophic in all probability so you have to weigh both sides and it just seems as though if he has not made it back by now or really soon, why risk it. A BC win is all that could make him more lucrative IMO.

As for stud, he is a sprinter with problems. If they are knees, that will follow him to the breeding shed. If it's a tendon, it won't. There are other types of injuries but without knowing, I'm just speculating.

He was very impressive for sure when you talked about him. I guess he just can't hold together.

[str]

n reversal, NYRA will disallow Hollendorfer runners

In an about face from a week ago, the New York Racing Association will not allow Jerry Hollendorfer to run horses at its tracks under his name, the Hall of Fame trainer and his attorney told Daily Racing Form on Saturday Guess NYRA had second thoughts.

Nobody is saying what the deal is here. Is it attorneys knowing that the back end liability of letting him run in NY after being thrown out of SA worrying about the backlash if one of his horses goes down and riders get hurt or worse? Or did they talk to Ritvo and now have damaging goods on the trainer and because they have been told, they as well, become liable in the event of something bad occurring.

Hard to say. We will find out in time but for now, it seems they want the horses in someone else's name, suggesting the liability issue I just stated.
I guess we will find out over time.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Nobody is saying what the deal is here. Is it attorneys knowing that the back end liability of letting him run in NY after being thrown out of SA worrying about the backlash if one of his horses goes down and riders get hurt or worse? Or did they talk to Ritvo and now have damaging goods on the trainer and because they have been told, they as well, become liable in the event of something bad occurring.

Hard to say. We will find out in time but for now, it seems they want the horses in someone else's name, suggesting the liability issue I just stated.
I guess we will find out over time.

Yeah I was also thinking Maybe the Stronach Group dissed the goods on Jerry. Like you said the truth on why NYRA changed course will probably be told. One day. Thx.

[Louisvillekid1]

Hey sir, forgive me for not checking in here first

im home for a little and shared some HR thoughts

anyway , much love and I got cabin less than 5 miles away from the spa

for the meet

really ain’t feeling sbr, if you and my other fav poster easy rider

can set something up for like a group text to handicaps

im plenty sure they wouldn’t be disappointed

love always sir , and thank you for giving me the privilege of posting here

[Louisvillekid1]

Fukk it while I’m here might as well ask a meaningful question and learn something

when you see a horse with 3+ changes, ( I know they all relevant)

but like blinkers off , turf to dirt , sprint to route , shipping , etc

some handicappers think it sounds desperate

but Im like “ if the horse trending , only needs one of those changes to work to fire”

obv the trainer factor in

but i made plenty more money on ponies trying almost everything different ,

than fading them ...

ty for your time

[Louisvillekid1]

I have a third post

the stronach family should blow themselves up

[JBEX]

If he was scheduled to miss a year, I do not know why it would be advantageous to run him at 5 with such a large gap between races.

He has shown a lot and honestly, unless he could win a Breeders Cup race, I'm not sure what the point is. He has serious issues that could become catastrophic in all probability so you have to weigh both sides and it just seems as though if he has not made it back by now or really soon, why risk it. A BC win is all that could make him more lucrative IMO.

As for stud, he is a sprinter with problems. If they are knees, that will follow him to the breeding shed. If it's a tendon, it won't. There are other types of injuries but without knowing, I'm just speculating.

He was very impressive for sure when you talked about him. I guess he just can't hold together.

I just like the big wins combined with the fact he cost $800k and by a $4k stallion..he must have been impressive at the sales...understand what you're saying about potential problems with his foals if his soundness issues were related to his knees..look forward to seeing how he does and his first 2yo's will probably be in 2021..thanks str

[JBEX]

here's something from tdn (thoroughbred daily news ) about him..they do mention knee problems as the reason his career was shortened

https://youtu.be/yZiNHTLZZwg

[str]

Hey sir, forgive me for not checking in here first

im home for a little and shared some HR thoughts

anyway , much love and I got cabin less than 5 miles away from the spa

for the meet

really ain’t feeling sbr, if you and my other fav poster easy rider

can set something up for like a group text to handicaps

im plenty sure they wouldn’t be disappointed

love always sir , and thank you for giving me the privilege of posting here

That sounds GREAT Kid. It is like no other meet I have ever seen.

Hope you stick around here Kid. You know you are always welcome in the horse racing section.

Only word of advice for the Spa is , don't try and storm it. Many do as the excitement is high. Let it come to you, and it will, and when it does, drop the hammer. Your damn good at reading between the lines. Play to your strengths.
Also, keep an eye on the outside post going 5/8ths and 5 1/2 on dirt for babies. Typically up there, the box is the place to be for the babies.

[str]

Fukk it while I’m here might as well ask a meaningful question and learn something

when you see a horse with 3+ changes, ( I know they all relevant)

but like blinkers off , turf to dirt , sprint to route , shipping , etc

some handicappers think it sounds desperate

but Im like “ if the horse trending , only needs one of those changes to work to fire”

obv the trainer factor in

but i made plenty more money on ponies trying almost everything different ,

than fading them ...

ty for your time

I don't see it as desperate, I see it as calculated. The trainer has a plan to win. They are going all in . That tells me they won't run to be 3rd or see how they do, they are going for the throat. I LOVE that !!!
You are right, it only needs one to work to fire. Great observation ! Especially up at the Spa. Everybody ships in on business there. They ALL want to win there.
I guarantee you bang at least one of those this meet.
I love it when a turf bomb going long pays 45.00 in the last with those " desperate" trainer moves. Especially claimers.
That move is potential gold, especially up there. Nobody is practicing at the Spa. But you already knew that !

All the best Kid. Knock em dead.

[Louisvillekid1]

Thank you so much and we agree

one tip (not that you need it )

is the finger lakes shippers coming in and seem like they don’t belong

dont miss out on those prices

Or anytime I see some off brand connections that your like “who”

cashed many a winner on those

huge payouts

we will talk and thanks for your time as always

my favorite person