Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

First of all, congrats on winning the contest!! Nicely done!!

As for Pimlico, that was some crazy bias for sure. What I found more intriguing is that there are so many horse that bore out during the turns. It's like almost in every race and in every turn; didn't matter if it was dirt or turf. I don't think I have ever seen that happened so frequently in the same day. Or was I imaging it?? Was it the track?? Or may be just happens to be the race that I was watching since I had to work the past few days and just watched when I can. Just seems like a lot.

Thank you Mr. GandT. and to everyone that said congrats !


Bearing out:

A great question as many had to notice it.

It caught my eye as well. Or so it seemed. The unique view for customers from just behind at the 5/16ths pole or the black and white pole before they hit before the red and white pole at the top of the stretch reminded me of when I was a hot walker and used to watch the races at Laurel from the 3/8ths pole gap. That is what it looks like. Too bad they didn't have a microphone on or you would have heard chatter from the riders in some of those races along with chirping or urging. Really different stuff the fans do not get to experience typically.
I really enjoyed the view.

What we all saw actually happens all the time, especially in larger fields. Unfortunately, the angle most see the race from has kind of a dead spot for depth perception and lateral movement at that area and it is hard to see horses angling off heels of others to wheel out or in for the stretch run. About the only way to see it with the typical view is to see if more or less saddle towel or horse body starts to show just above the rail or to watch the riders hands where the left hand gets slightly in front of the right hand which will guide the horse outwards. The hands are very subtle though. Either of those will help to tell you the horse is going higher up or lower on the turn.

So no, you were definitely not imagining it. And no it was not the track. And also no, the turns are NOT tighter than Churchill Downs as Mike Smith alluded to. He misspoke on that.

Hope that makes sense Mr. GandT. That is what we were seeing. Personally, I hope they do that more often. It's a pretty cool angle IMO.

[mrginandtonic]

Thank you Mr. GandT. and to everyone that said congrats !


Bearing out:

A great question as many had to notice it.

It caught my eye as well. Or so it seemed. The unique view for customers from just behind at the 5/16ths pole or the black and white pole before they hit before the red and white pole at the top of the stretch reminded me of when I was a hot walker and used to watch the races at Laurel from the 3/8ths pole gap. That is what it looks like. Too bad they didn't have a microphone on or you would have heard chatter from the riders in some of those races along with chirping or urging. Really different stuff the fans do not get to experience typically.
I really enjoyed the view.

What we all saw actually happens all the time, especially in larger fields. Unfortunately, the angle most see the race from has kind of a dead spot for depth perception and lateral movement at that area and it is hard to see horses angling off heels of others to wheel out or in for the stretch run. About the only way to see it with the typical view is to see if more or less saddle towel or horse body starts to show just above the rail or to watch the riders hands where the left hand gets slightly in front of the right hand which will guide the horse outwards. The hands are very subtle though. Either of those will help to tell you the horse is going higher up or lower on the turn.

So no, you were definitely not imagining it. And no it was not the track. And also no, the turns are NOT tighter than Churchill Downs as Mike Smith alluded to. He misspoke on that.

Hope that makes sense Mr. GandT. That is what we were seeing. Personally, I hope they do that more often. It's a pretty cool angle IMO.

Thank you for your explanation. Much appreciated. I understand that this happens all the time, but this weekend just seemed more exaggerate than I have ever seen. Unless you are close to rail; otherwise, the horses seemed to bore so much more than normal. Like you said, that may just be the angle that they are showing since I don't play Pimlico much other than the Preakness. May be that's why I am so surprised. Anyways, thank you for taking the time to explain in detail. Much appreciated.

[JBEX]

hey str


there's a horse running at laurel today trained by mike trombetta (that's one of the guys you know well if I remember correctly?).. 5yo mare homebred by r larry johnson who I believe I mentioned to you once before.. any way debuted at pimlico as a 3yo in May vs mcl 40k and basically ran an an even race.. 3 weeks later ran at laurel at 5.5f on the turf and wired a field of mcl 40k.. stays away for 10 months after that and runs vs n1x alw at woodbine on the poly also at 5.5f and wires them.. so now 2/3 and we don't see her again till today?? top 5 jockey at track rides (rode her first two starts).. guessing the horse obviously has physical problems but are they just trying to make her a more attractive broodmare prospect .. you'd think they'd just not bother bringing her back again after a 13+ month layoff?



R5 #7 magician'squestion (5-1)

[str]

hey str


there's a horse running at laurel today trained by mike trombetta (that's one of the guys you know well if I remember correctly?).. 5yo mare homebred by r larry johnson who I believe I mentioned to you once before.. any way debuted at pimlico as a 3yo in May vs mcl 40k and basically ran an an even race.. 3 weeks later ran at laurel at 5.5f on the turf and wired a field of mcl 40k.. stays away for 10 months after that and runs vs n1x alw at woodbine on the poly also at 5.5f and wires them.. so now 2/3 and we don't see her again till today?? top 5 jockey at track rides (rode her first two starts).. guessing the horse obviously has physical problems but are they just trying to make her a more attractive broodmare prospect .. you'd think they'd just not bother bringing her back again after a 13+ month layoff?



R5 #7 magician'squestion (5-1)

Larry Johnson breeds speed for the most part. The 10 months sounds like a chip was removed( a very typical timeline for that). Back in the day he would have speed home breds and try to give them every chance to show what they can do. With breeding season over about now anyway, my guess, and I am probably right is that they will race her through the late fall , early winter providing she stays sound , hope she can win this one and show a touch more quality, and give her a swing or two in some stakes in Md. or on the grass close by as the year goes. But either way, he will no doubt keep her to breed her.
He owned her mother Kelly's Question and raced her and she was not much at all.But... She was out of Whatwouldhappenif, a mare that he also bred and raced in the mid 80's . I remember her well. Ran against her multiple times. Just a claimer though and eventually had to run at CharlesTown and Delaware Park ( it was pretty weak there in the mid to late 80's.) to compete. So if he kept those two, I can't imagine he does not try and keep this one. Any time you see a Larry Johnson bred baby, rest assured that they are pointed to show early speed. That's his M.O.
And if questioned as to Mike's strongest attribute in training, I would probably say speed although with nicer stock the past decade or so, he might not show that as much as he used to but he was born and raised Pimlico and if you are that from back then, it is usually speed that shows up. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Lol. Just some info to handicap firsters with.

On a side note, I see that Misty On Pointe is in the race. Pretty sure I played her on Preakness day and if that is indeed her, she broke flat footed that day , then got pinched, had nowhere to go until too late and came flying to make it close. Think that might have been 5/8ths. If all that is correct , with the added 1/16th today, she should run very well . Should have won that day at 5/8ths. Back in 2 weeks( if that is her) is a positive. Hard to toss her I would think. You know Sagamore wanted to win a race on Preakness day !!!

Good luck JBEX.

[JBEX]

Larry Johnson breeds speed for the most part. The 10 months sounds like a chip was removed( a very typical timeline for that). Back in the day he would have speed home breds and try to give them every chance to show what they can do. With breeding season over about now anyway, my guess, and I am probably right is that they will race her through the late fall , early winter providing she stays sound , hope she can win this one and show a touch more quality, and give her a swing or two in some stakes in Md. or on the grass close by as the year goes. But either way, he will no doubt keep her to breed her.
He owned her mother Kelly's Question and raced her and she was not much at all.But... She was out of Whatwouldhappenif, a mare that he also bred and raced in the mid 80's . I remember her well. Ran against her multiple times. Just a claimer though and eventually had to run at CharlesTown and Delaware Park ( it was pretty weak there in the mid to late 80's.) to compete. So if he kept those two, I can't imagine he does not try and keep this one. Any time you see a Larry Johnson bred baby, rest assured that they are pointed to show early speed. That's his M.O.
And if questioned as to Mike's strongest attribute in training, I would probably say speed although with nicer stock the past decade or so, he might not show that as much as he used to but he was born and raised Pimlico and if you are that from back then, it is usually speed that shows up. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Lol. Just some info to handicap firsters with.

On a side note, I see that Misty On Pointe is in the race. Pretty sure I played her on Preakness day and if that is indeed her, she broke flat footed that day , then got pinched, had nowhere to go until too late and came flying to make it close. Think that might have been 5/8ths. If all that is correct , with the added 1/16th today, she should run very well . Should have won that day at 5/8ths. Back in 2 weeks( if that is her) is a positive. Hard to toss her I would think. You know Sagamore wanted to win a race on Preakness day !!!

Good luck JBEX.

thanks str


just watched the race.. your's finished 3rd and I was out of the money.. they went 21.53 43.88 1:00.55
which is a new track record.. track must be like pavement because it's a md bred n1x alw.. Larry johnson besides owning the dam also looks like he owns the sire.. another with the street cry lineage that we've discussed and the avg winning distance being 6.1f which is extremely low (as you said speed)..mr greeley mare which also lends itself to speed and turf.. roland farm in warwick md is where he's listed as standing and looks like lj is a principal there

[JBEX]

hey str

put up a video of the 89 belmont in my belmont stakes thread..do you think in that situation there's a competitiveness in easy goer not only to win the race but also to beat sunday silence... or is that taking it too far ?

[str]

hey str

put up a video of the 89 belmont in my belmont stakes thread..do you think in that situation there's a competitiveness in easy goer not only to win the race but also to beat sunday silence... or is that taking it too far ?

Probably taking it too far. Great race to see again. Silence was so push button while Easy was so damn massive that it took him a while to get all of himself going. But around those Belmont turns, he had no problem. At the other two places, Easy Goer struggled around the turns, costing him momentum. Won't use it as an excuse. Just a fact within the race. Two truly GREAT horses !

[JBEX]

Probably taking it too far. Great race to see again. Silence was so push button while Easy was so damn massive that it took him a while to get all of himself going. But around those Belmont turns, he had no problem. At the other two places, Easy Goer struggled around the turns, costing him momentum. Won't use it as an excuse. Just a fact within the race. Two truly GREAT horses !

yeah figured that.. wiki has some great stuff about him.. easy goer was truly a monster

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easy_Goer

[JBEX]

"His action was so athletic, so natural, so fluid; he glided over the track; he ran very fast and did it so easily "

mcgaughey speaking about him..didn't say but guess that explains the name

[JBEX]

hey str


just wanted your opinion on this situation with tax in the belmont..said he got a stone bruise following a workout on 6/2

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/234009/belmont-hopeful-tax-putting-stone-bruise-behind-him

[str]

"His action was so athletic, so natural, so fluid; he glided over the track; he ran very fast and did it so easily "

mcgaughey speaking about him..didn't say but guess that explains the name

It is really incredible to see such a great athlete in Easy Goer when you remember just how large he was.

[str]

hey str


just wanted your opinion on this situation with tax in the belmont..said he got a stone bruise following a workout on 6/2



https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ise-behind-him

A stone bruise is exactly what it sounds like. He stepped on something that hurt for a day or so but it resulted in a bruise in the foot. Problem with that is if it is within the shell of the foot , because that is thick and hard, the blood that is trying to wash away any infection or help heal the area from the bruise cannot go anywhere so the infection can fester if it is large enough . Doesn't always happen. It is wait and see which is what the trainer talked about. It might just dry up and the whole thing is over. No problems. But if it doesn't, the foot will become very hot , more blood trying to sooth the area and the horse will literally go to sleep sound and wake up dead lame. A blacksmith will then need to dig around in the hoof to find a spot to allow the puss and blood to escape. As soon as the pressure is relieved, the horse starts to become sound again, typically in a day or two.
The digging doesn't hurt as it is like a toenail. The horse will stay lame for a day or so until the groom can draw the puss out and antibiotics are used to help the process. That would be an instant scratch. So you just have to wait and see what happens, if anything.
If nothing happens, it is a no excuse thing we are talking about. If he goes lame, he will scratch and be able to run in about 2 weeks or more depending on the exposure to the meat within the foot that is exposed. Typically we are talking about a 1/2" diameter spot or less, but it is really tender as you could imagine.
If he has not gone lame by now, there is a good chance he will not and the whole incident will just go away. That is why they took the shoe off and glued one on with no nails. The nails can irritate the area affected . A nail on shoe can be placed back on in as little as a few days or up to 2-3 weeks, depending on exactly what the foot looks like.
Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

A stone bruise is exactly what it sounds like. He stepped on something that hurt for a day or so but it resulted in a bruise in the foot. Problem with that is if it is within the shell of the foot , because that is thick and hard, the blood that is trying to wash away any infection or help heal the area from the bruise cannot go anywhere so the infection can fester if it is large enough . Doesn't always happen. It is wait and see which is what the trainer talked about. It might just dry up and the whole thing is over. No problems. But if it doesn't, the foot will become very hot , more blood trying to sooth the area and the horse will literally go to sleep sound and wake up dead lame. A blacksmith will then need to dig around in the hoof to find a spot to allow the puss and blood to escape. As soon as the pressure is relieved, the horse starts to become sound again, typically in a day or two.
The digging doesn't hurt as it is like a toenail. The horse will stay lame for a day or so until the groom can draw the puss out and antibiotics are used to help the process. That would be an instant scratch. So you just have to wait and see what happens, if anything.
If nothing happens, it is a no excuse thing we are talking about. If he goes lame, he will scratch and be able to run in about 2 weeks or more depending on the exposure to the meat within the foot that is exposed. Typically we are talking about a 1/2" diameter spot or less, but it is really tender as you could imagine.
If he has not gone lame by now, there is a good chance he will not and the whole incident will just go away. That is why they took the shoe off and glued one on with no nails. The nails can irritate the area affected . A nail on shoe can be placed back on in as little as a few days or up to 2-3 weeks, depending on exactly what the foot looks like.
Hope that helps.

ok great info str... believe they wouldn't run him if there were any doubts and by what you said think there's a good chance he'll go.. thanks

[JBEX]

A stone bruise is exactly what it sounds like. He stepped on something that hurt for a day or so but it resulted in a bruise in the foot. Problem with that is if it is within the shell of the foot , because that is thick and hard, the blood that is trying to wash away any infection or help heal the area from the bruise cannot go anywhere so the infection can fester if it is large enough . Doesn't always happen. It is wait and see which is what the trainer talked about. It might just dry up and the whole thing is over. No problems. But if it doesn't, the foot will become very hot , more blood trying to sooth the area and the horse will literally go to sleep sound and wake up dead lame. A blacksmith will then need to dig around in the hoof to find a spot to allow the puss and blood to escape. As soon as the pressure is relieved, the horse starts to become sound again, typically in a day or two.
The digging doesn't hurt as it is like a toenail. The horse will stay lame for a day or so until the groom can draw the puss out and antibiotics are used to help the process. That would be an instant scratch. So you just have to wait and see what happens, if anything.
If nothing happens, it is a no excuse thing we are talking about. If he goes lame, he will scratch and be able to run in about 2 weeks or more depending on the exposure to the meat within the foot that is exposed. Typically we are talking about a 1/2" diameter spot or less, but it is really tender as you could imagine.
If he has not gone lame by now, there is a good chance he will not and the whole incident will just go away. That is why they took the shoe off and glued one on with no nails. The nails can irritate the area affected . A nail on shoe can be placed back on in as little as a few days or up to 2-3 weeks, depending on exactly what the foot looks like.
Hope that helps.

here's an update str.. looks to be ok

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/New_shoes_do_the_trick_for_Belmont_Stakes_contender_Tax_123#

[str]

here's an update str.. looks to be ok


https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ender_Tax_123#

Figured he would be. Those things pop up within 2-3 days if they are going to usually.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Who is your Belmont Horse STR? Leaning Spinoff. Alternate Bourbon War. ANy opinions? Thx in advance.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: if you look over the form, In a match race. Bourbon War vs. Spinoff? Whom do you favor? Thx. The contest I am in locks down at 3:15. If you can answer by then great. If not, no worries.

[str]

Who is your Belmont Horse STR? Leaning Spinoff. Alternate Bourbon War. ANy opinions? Thx in advance.

I went with Sir Winston. Reason being is nobody knows how the added distance will affect each horse. You are forced to look at bloodlines and what I see as hidden points within the horses form.

From the bloodlines angle, Sir Winston has everything anybody could ask for when it comes to this type of distance. I know there are others by Tapit in here but Sir Winston is just as legit IMO.

From the trip angle, War Of Will looks like he should win on paper. But.... we all know that the Pimlico rail was golden three weeks ago and he was on it every step of the way. So, that forces me to play against at short odds and "with" a strong bias. Am I surprised if he wins? No. But it's against my principles to play horses that improved "with" a bias last time. Tacitus looks fine but as a favorite? Not for me. Plus, both draw outside and a look at yesterday's charts shows that the rail was very nice at Belmont yesterday. No reason to fight that although anybody can end up saving ground in this race that might stalk or close.

From the hidden form angle, I cannot believe how fast Sir Winston ran the final 3/8's of his last race. He finished up in just over :35 for his last 3/8's and the final time of the last 1/8th in that race was 12 /2/5ths. So this was not a pace collapse but to the contrary, it was Sir Winston just running very fast late. That is what put me on him.
So, we all know that the horse that stalks has a big shot in this race each year. Sir Winston is doubtful to do that, but I am hopeful that he can lay within 6-7 early. If he does, and can finish anywhere near like his last race, I think he runs very well.

[str]

Hey STR: if you look over the form, In a match race. Bourbon War vs. Spinoff? Whom do you favor? Thx. The contest I am in locks down at 3:15. If you can answer by then great. If not, no worries.

Is this a head to head bet in today's race?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Is this a head to head bet in today's race?

NO just want to see who you would go with if you had to pick one of the two. It's a regular contest.

[str]

NO just want to see who you would go with if you had to pick one of the two. It's a regular contest.

In a true two horse match race, Spinoff , being speed, would control any match race against Bourbon War and win due to slow early pace way more often than not.

The speed always has a huge advantage in a match race.

But you are betting on final results of the race today right?

[Easy-Rider 66]

In a true two horse match race, Spinoff , being speed, would control any match race against Bourbon War and win due to slow early pace way more often than not.

The speed always has a huge advantage in a match race.

But you are betting on final results of the race today right?

Correct. Like the fact that Spinoff has the speed, but Bourbon War with blinks off, Smith riding, and by Tapit is interesting. Mr. G&T likes your horse but Bourbon War is his alternate. He does not like Spinoff.

[str]

Correct. Like the fact that Spinoff has the speed, but Bourbon War with blinks off, Smith riding, and by Tapit is interesting. Mr. G&T likes your horse but Bourbon War is his alternate. He does not like Spinoff.

So in today's race, I would take Bourbon War. The blks. really messed him up last time. He warmed up really hot and bothered, so much so that his rider kicked his feet out of the stirrups for about 5 minutes trying to settle him down. The trainer watching that had to be dying.

He should go to the gate today much more relaxed and not all keyed up. He should finish up . Spinoff has yet to prove he is of this quality and at that distance, if he starts to falter, I cannot see the rider punishing him late. That could allow him to drop way back.

There is one scenario I see that allows him to run well. The track is really playing inside speed so the charts from yesterday and early results today say. That said, he gets in the two path and they walk the dog early with the 1 horse and you never know.
But you can't simply hope on hope with Spinoff so I would take Bourbon War. More often than not and all things being equal, although they are not equal today from what I have seen so far, in a race like this, Bourbon War would be the play in my book.

GL Easy !

[Easy-Rider 66]

So in today's race, I would take Bourbon War. The blks. really messed him up last time. He warmed up really hot and bothered, so much so that his rider kicked his feet out of the stirrups for about 5 minutes trying to settle him down. The trainer watching that had to be dying.

He should go to the gate today much more relaxed and not all keyed up. He should finish up . Spinoff has yet to prove he is of this quality and at that distance, if he starts to falter, I cannot see the rider punishing him late. That could allow him to drop way back.

There is one scenario I see that allows him to run well. The track is really playing inside speed so the charts from yesterday and early results today say. That said, he gets in the two path and they walk the dog early with the 1 horse and you never know.
But you can't simply hope on hope with Spinoff so I would take Bourbon War. More often than not and all things being equal, although they are not equal today from what I have seen so far, in a race like this, Bourbon War would be the play in my book.

GL Easy !

Thx STR Based on your and Mr. G&t's advice going with Bourbon War. and I remember Jbex taking him in FOY. GL today.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Nice pick on Sir Winston STR.

[JBEX]

nice pick str.. I got it a tick under 35 but as you said that's really moving

[str]

Nice pick on Sir Winston STR.

Thanks Easy.

Sorry about Bourbon War vs. Spinoff thing. Don't know what happened to BW but apparently he didn't pick his feet up. Have to see the chart and replay but shame on me for ever suggesting to take a closer vs. a speed horse in a head to head with very little pace.
I think I over thought that.
Sorry man!

[str]

nice pick str.. I got it a tick under 35 but as you said that's really moving

Thanks JBEX.

Sure hope someone reading this jumped on.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thanks Easy.

Sorry about Bourbon War vs. Spinoff thing. Don't know what happened to BW but apparently he didn't pick his feet up. Have to see the chart and replay but shame on me for ever suggesting to take a closer vs. a speed horse in a head to head with very little pace.
I think I over thought that.
Sorry man!

NO worries. Did not matter. Had the #5 in a regular contest where you get credit for first or second. Should have tailed you, Mr. G&T, and TimeformUS with Sir WInston. Thx for the take on the Belmont. Look forward to this summer with the Haskell, Alabama, Travers, etc.

[JBEX]

definitely got a question for you about this race but leave it for tomorrow ..my brain's scrambled eggs

[Easy-Rider 66]

definitely got a question for you about this race but leave it for tomorrow ..my brain's scrambled eggs

[str]

definitely got a question for you about this race but leave it for tomorrow ..my brain's scrambled eggs

I'll take a guess at it.

How did Tax show so much speed ?

[mrginandtonic]

So glad we are on the same horse!! Didn’t want to say anything earlier cuz didn’t want to jinx it. I’m pretty superstitious, lol

[JBEX]

I'll take a guess at it.

How did Tax show so much speed ?

no that didn't surprise me ...the generality that deep closers at shorter distances are not good plays when they have to go significantly farther..but usually that involves sprint to routes..this kind of distance change happens rarely..may not be able to respond for a while..have to run out..no rush on this one str lol

[JBEX]

no that didn't surprise me ...the generality that deep closers at shorter distances are not good plays when they have to go significantly farther..but usually that involves sprint to routes..this kind of distance change happens rarely..may not be able to respond for a while..have to run out..no rush on this one str lol

thought about this a little more this morning (rested brain).. percentage wise this is the same as 6f to a mile and very close to most of the other sprint - route stretchout distances barring 6f - 1 1/8 miles.. so looking at it this way these things happen quite often.. and since this was at belmont which is the only place you can race at beyond 1 mile on the dirt around 1 turn this would be a good place to keep the discussion about.. would have to think staying around one turn would make a difference when considering a horse trying to do this off a closing sprint..


I understand this happens but I've always gone by the school of thought to avoid these types even in situations where the horse has gotten the longer distance before.. I guess if you were not going to apply
this concept it would be under these circumstances.. not trying to knock your pick str so please don't take it that way.. I feel this is one of those critical things to understand when handicapping and something that there's probably no black and white answer to