Horse Racing questions and answers

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  • mrginandtonic
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-11-09
    • 7731

    #3431
    Originally posted by str
    The 15 days is indeed a sign that the Stewards feel an incident within the race was done at the discretion of the rider or, in other words, deliberately.
    Remember I talked about phrases that riders and trainers use when I referred to " taking a shot", or, claiming a foul on a hope and a prayer. Well, " race riding" is another phrase used which refers to riders riding rough or with the will to intimidate. ( Back to this in a minute.)

    IMO, the horse switching leads in the turn and the subsequent action that followed is NOT a reason for any days, much less 15 days IMO. If a horse bolts out or ducks out and the rider moves to correct immediately, that rider has done all he or she could do. I feel that Saez DID do that when his horse moved out from the lead change.
    I am wondering if the excessive days are due to the " race riding" that took place just after the incident in which Saez moves his mount back inward but continues to move closer to the rail, obviously to tighten the hole on the inside that Code Of Honor was trying to run through. He came all the way back over and bumped, albeit lightly, but he did bump, not brush IMO, Code Of Honor and then proceeded to outrun him to the finish line. THAT is the art of "race riding".
    So was THAT it? Or was the incident when Max Sec. switched leads in the turn it, or a culmination of both. Do they feel he was playing bumper cars?

    The ruling said the suspension is for "failure to control his mount and make the proper effort to maintain a straight course thereby causing interference with several rivals that resulted in the disqualification of his mount."

    The wording is too vague to understand exactly what the Stewards are talking about in particular.

    All of that said, it is my opinion that Saez deserved NO days for his ride in the Ky. Derby. I know that people within the business are split on if he should have come down or not. My opinion is regrettably and with much angst, he should have. I say that because he was the best horse and I hate to see the betting public or Max Security pay a price for what happened. The rules pertaining to the betting should be reexamined IMO but I already talked about that last week. But the bottom line is it happened and it wasn't slight or ticky tacky. It was a real thing.

    But as for any days, because it is obvious to me that the rider did all he could do as quickly as he could have, to say that the rider "failed to make the proper effort to maintain a straight course", THAT, when speaking to the lead switching and around the turn is wholly inaccurate.
    And if it is for race riding Code Of Honor, or a combination of the two, than they should have said so.

    The last thought for me is, are they trying to somehow justify the call they made to the public? Wow, I hope not. What a mess that will be.

    Credibility and respect is paramount within the game for the Stewards. They talk to riders everyday. Same with Trainers. And I will bet that they will be hard pressed to gain much of any support from either group on this call.

    For just my take, I feel it is a terrible decision that will only undermine the Kentucky Stewards respectability moving forward unless something is brought to the table that nobody has heard yet.

    The race is below and the "race riding", which fans see all the time, is at 2:12 of the video. It might seem that I am trying to make a case for the Stewards decision. I am not. I am simply trying to understand it and i'm grabbing at straws to try and figure out what the heck they are actually talking about.

    All in all Mr. GandT, this thing is a real mess, and IMO the Stewards have nobody to blame but themselves.


    Thank you very much for your input. Actually, the first thought came to my mind was exactly what you have mentioned...

    "The last thought for me is, are they trying to somehow justify the call they made to the public? "


    That was the impression that I got when they handed down that suspension. I'm just really disappointed. Like you said, this whole thing has turned to a big mess.

    Moving forward, Sir, see anything interesting in Black Eye Susan and the Preakness. Both are DRF Race of the Day and forms are available on their website. Hopefully, you have time to take a look and give us your insights. Thanks in advance.
    Comment
    • str
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-12-09
      • 11558

      #3432
      Originally posted by JBEX
      hey str

      improbable in all his races prior to the derby averaged less than 2 lengths off the pace at the first call and just a shade over 1 length at the 2nd call..do you think at pimlico
      that could be extra helpfull as compared to other tracks in general?

      also was just looking at a stat that amazed me..through the brisnet pp's the last 57 races run at pimlico in this range..

      9f +
      3yo
      handicap/graded stakes
      $125K - $3M purse

      guessing this goes back a long ways limiting it to 3yo's..it's possible I read it wrong but don't think so the way they said it "All 3yo "

      44% winning favorites !!

      74% in the money

      9.5 avg field size

      $8.20 median win price *
      *a little puzzling that high but i'll at least assume the win % is true ..probably has to do with avg vs median and they are big fields


      you're able to see this in the pp's link that I posted..makes improbable (who I think will be post time favorite) that much scarier ...this stat surprise you ?
      Q. improbable in all his races prior to the derby averaged less than 2 lengths off the pace at the first call and just a shade over 1 length at the 2nd call..do you think at pimlico
      that could be extra helpfull as compared to other tracks in general?


      A. 13 of the last 17 Preakness winners have been within 3 lengths as they rounded the clubhouse turn. Because of that, yes, being within 2-3 lengths early will help IMO.

      I will tie my answer of the 2nd question into the next follow up to the question.
      Comment
      • str
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-12-09
        • 11558

        #3433
        Originally posted by JBEX
        you know i think I know what mistake I made with that sample..believe it's all races in that category (not just pimlico) going back to 2017 or 2018.. makes some sense then ..still a very telling stat in my opinion
        44% winning favorites is high for sure. Not sure what to make of that. The last few years, speed really has seemed to dominate so it seems.
        I would say yes, I am surprised but a lot of Calif. horses who have seemed to dominate lately have been speed types or right there early.

        I guess the game has evolved several different ways since I have left.
        Comment
        • str
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-12-09
          • 11558

          #3434
          Originally posted by mrginandtonic
          Thank you very much for your input. Actually, the first thought came to my mind was exactly what you have mentioned...

          "The last thought for me is, are they trying to somehow justify the call they made to the public? "


          That was the impression that I got when they handed down that suspension. I'm just really disappointed. Like you said, this whole thing has turned to a big mess.

          Moving forward, Sir, see anything interesting in Black Eye Susan and the Preakness. Both are DRF Race of the Day and forms are available on their website. Hopefully, you have time to take a look and give us your insights. Thanks in advance.

          Always a pleasure to talk to you Mr. GandT.

          I will be looking at both races through the race of the day PP's so yes, I will be happy to post what I see later today and tomorrow.

          For what it's worth, yesterday's track at Pimlico was very fair and maybe a little outside happy. Typically, they would have graded the track last night after the races for today's races as well as tomorrows races. Watching the races today will lend a big hand IMO as to what they did or did not do with the track. There is only a 20% chance or rain today and tomorrow so there is a chance they did not grade last night and will do so tonight. I would be very surprised if they do not do so at some point before the Saturday races . They always have .
          More on that later today.
          Who does everyone like in the Black Eyed Susan ?
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23081

            #3435
            hey str


            like #1 sweet diane (15-1)

            falls into that not only expensive but expensive relative to the pedigree category for me.. like what she did as a 2yo and the pace in that listed stakes at gulfstream she ran in was very fast.. looks like a couple of wide trips in her 3yo starts including being close to a very fast pace in the fairgrounds oaks last out.. ..switching trainers to kenealley who's killing it at churchill and is excellent with first time acquisitions.. jose ortiz rides.. think will be significantly lower than morning line
            Comment
            • JBEX
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-02-12
              • 23081

              #3436
              Originally posted by JBEX
              hey str


              like #1 sweet diane (15-1)

              falls into that not only expensive but expensive relative to the pedigree category for me.. like what she did as a 2yo and the pace in that listed stakes at gulfstream she ran in was very fast.. looks like a couple of wide trips in her 3yo starts including being close to a very fast pace in the fairgrounds oaks last out.. ..switching trainers to kenealley who's killing it at churchill and is excellent with first time acquisitions.. jose ortiz rides.. think will be significantly lower than morning line
              just want to say I still think a horse who cost a bunch at this early stage of their career can be valuable information
              and shouldn't just be restricted to maidens..some may disagree and I understand that..like this along with a trainer change to shake things up a bit..would like your opinion on these factors
              Comment
              • str
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-12-09
                • 11558

                #3437
                Originally posted by JBEX
                just want to say I still think a horse who cost a bunch at this early stage of their career can be valuable information
                and shouldn't just be restricted to maidens..some may disagree and I understand that..like this along with a trainer change to shake things up a bit..would like your opinion on these factors
                She was scratched JBEX.

                As for the factors, the trainer change can be a big factor sometimes. That is always worth a long look.

                As for costing a lot, the horse itself must prove its worthiness to me but if they win, the ones close behind are probably running in a tougher spot against that well meant horse than a typical maiden race IMO. Not sure which one you meant so I tossed them both in.
                Comment
                • str
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-12-09
                  • 11558

                  #3438
                  So IMO the rail is a real nice place to be today at Pimlico in dirt races.

                  Inside speed ? Sure. But inside trips for most of the race and a wheel out turning for home works as well.
                  Being wide seems to really hinder horses so far.
                  So a rail bias NOT a speed bias.

                  Keep a close eye on that folks.

                  Hope it helps somebody.
                  Comment
                  • str
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-12-09
                    • 11558

                    #3439
                    Just watched the 7th at Pimlico and it is ALL INSIDE. Sure hope somebody had that.

                    So that said Mr. GandT, I could only play the 2,3,4,5 in the Black Eyed Susan with the hope that the 6 or other outside horses do NOT drop over and save ground.

                    The guys on TVG are in amazement that the 2 horse at 65-1 ran so well in the 7th.

                    Seriously?
                    Comment
                    • str
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-12-09
                      • 11558

                      #3440
                      8th at Pimlico = All inside.
                      Comment
                      • mrginandtonic
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-11-09
                        • 7731

                        #3441
                        Originally posted by str
                        Just watched the 7th at Pimlico and it is ALL INSIDE. Sure hope somebody had that.

                        So that said Mr. GandT, I could only play the 2,3,4,5 in the Black Eyed Susan with the hope that the 6 or other outside horses do NOT drop over and save ground.

                        The guys on TVG are in amazement that the 2 horse at 65-1 ran so well in the 7th.

                        Seriously?
                        Thank you sir, much appreciated.
                        Comment
                        • str
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-12-09
                          • 11558

                          #3442
                          Tenfold won with a rail trip most of the way but Point of Honor ran right through any bias running wide both turns and won.

                          So in the last I would take a flyer on the 1 horse and hope for an inside trip which is what should occur.

                          GL.
                          Comment
                          • Louisvillekid1
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-17-07
                            • 52143

                            #3443
                            Owendale is the winner

                            I’m boycotting this site but logged it in for STR

                            Brad cox 2nd off the bench

                            he’s got 2 in here

                            and was gonna write more

                            but fukk sbr

                            good luck fam
                            Comment
                            • str
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-12-09
                              • 11558

                              #3444
                              Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                              Owendale is the winner

                              I’m boycotting this site but logged it in for STR

                              Brad cox 2nd off the bench

                              he’s got 2 in here

                              and was gonna write more

                              but fukk sbr

                              good luck fam
                              Glad to hear from you LKid !

                              It is always a pleasure.

                              Owendale? Certainly is on the move upwards.

                              Very solid connections.

                              I will follow up on what I saw yesterday and my thoughts on what might occur today.

                              Good luck Kid.

                              Thanks for checking in my man.
                              Comment
                              • str
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-12-09
                                • 11558

                                #3445
                                So yesterday, Pimlico was a rail bias . IMO, no doubt about it. And it was strong. It can certainly carry over on to today's card but everytime the harrows go around it loses just a bit of its strength.

                                There were 8 dirt races yesterday. Of the 16 horses that made up the 8 exactas, only 2 of them were further out than the 2 path. One was in the 3 path and the other in the 4 path. And in EVERY exacta, a rail trip horse made up 1/2 of the winning ticket.
                                As I said yesterday morning, it was highly probable that the track was graded ahead of yesterdays races and it clearly showed. Sure hope somebody made some money on that.
                                So what will today bring? Well, it should still be somewhat inside, probably not quite as crazy as yesterday but it should be at least some advantage if not a big one. There are only 6 races on the dirt with most of the races spaced out over and hour or more. Please keep an eye on the paths taken as it should be to your advantage.
                                More to come later.
                                Comment
                                • BetterBizness
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 05-20-06
                                  • 5737

                                  #3446
                                  It’s only been 8 years but I found ya... what a wealth of knowledge in this thread thanks str
                                  Comment
                                  • JBEX
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-02-12
                                    • 23081

                                    #3447
                                    Originally posted by str
                                    So yesterday, Pimlico was a rail bias . IMO, no doubt about it. And it was strong. It can certainly carry over on to today's card but everytime the harrows go around it loses just a bit of its strength.

                                    There were 8 dirt races yesterday. Of the 16 horses that made up the 8 exactas, only 2 of them were further out than the 2 path. One was in the 3 path and the other in the 4 path. And in EVERY exacta, a rail trip horse made up 1/2 of the winning ticket.
                                    As I said yesterday morning, it was highly probable that the track was graded ahead of yesterdays races and it clearly showed. Sure hope somebody made some money on that.
                                    So what will today bring? Well, it should still be somewhat inside, probably not quite as crazy as yesterday but it should be at least some advantage if not a big one. There are only 6 races on the dirt with most of the races spaced out over and hour or more. Please keep an eye on the paths taken as it should be to your advantage.
                                    More to come later.

                                    great stuff str...good luck today
                                    Comment
                                    • Louisvillekid1
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-17-07
                                      • 52143

                                      #3448
                                      Rail strikes early

                                      that place is such a dump

                                      been there several times

                                      Hasn’t changed since war admiral ran there
                                      Comment
                                      • Louisvillekid1
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-17-07
                                        • 52143

                                        #3449
                                        I think it’s the 1,2,5

                                        i didnt wanna spend too much on the horizontal

                                        but mr cox using 2 and although javy on the other

                                        This one thrives 2nd off the bench and rebounded nicely in KY

                                        Love the works and fresh

                                        here’s NY (even on big race days I just love NY circuit)

                                        R1 #5 Smiles from Sadie
                                        R2 #2 My First Gal
                                        R3 # 2 Teletype
                                        R4 #3 Greek Alphabet
                                        R5 # 1A Flat out Jayvien
                                        R6 #2 Loverboy Lou
                                        R7 #11 Miss Jen
                                        R8 #2 Analyaze the Odds
                                        R9 # 6 Mysterious Traveler
                                        R10 #1 My Roxy Girl
                                        R11 #7 Entirely
                                        R12 #8 Legion Storm
                                        Comment
                                        • Louisvillekid1
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-17-07
                                          • 52143

                                          #3450
                                          Anybody doing the spa this year?

                                          Im booking a few trips

                                          getting cabin locally

                                          gonna do some fishing , study form by fire night before

                                          if anyone up there lmk

                                          thinking 2-3 trips for 4-5 days each
                                          Comment
                                          • Louisvillekid1
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-17-07
                                            • 52143

                                            #3451
                                            Whatever you do , do not bet improbable

                                            will not win


                                            apologies if I’m clogging your thread


                                            Just don’t wanna be anywhere near sbr people


                                            just wanna talk ponies down here
                                            Comment
                                            • str
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-12-09
                                              • 11558

                                              #3452
                                              Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                              Whatever you do , do not bet improbable

                                              will not win


                                              apologies if I’m clogging your thread


                                              Just don’t wanna be anywhere near sbr people


                                              just wanna talk ponies down here
                                              Never a problem with you posting here Kid.

                                              I see no reason to bet Improbable at his odds. If he wins, he wins.

                                              Just watched the big favorite win in the 2 path so not much to report as for the surface but I know that place pretty well and what I have said stands in my mind.
                                              I played the Jimmy The Bag pool and used the other Cox horse. Not my style to bet all races early but those are the rules. Wanted to stay inside assuming the rail stays an advantage but looking for a price. With the right trip , you never know.
                                              Comment
                                              • Louisvillekid1
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 10-17-07
                                                • 52143

                                                #3453
                                                Damon dilodovico is 100% juicing horses

                                                this dude gonna be caught soon

                                                but until that time , use his ponies


                                                oh and I don’t care what anyway says


                                                maximum security won the derby


                                                Im ordering custom derby glass
                                                Comment
                                                • Easy-Rider 66
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 02-14-12
                                                  • 36084

                                                  #3454
                                                  Congrats STR on winning the Beat the Bag Preakness contest. Do you have a bitcoin account? I scored in the Super Bowl squares contest $250 but do not use bitcoin. Cost me the cash.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Louisvillekid1
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 10-17-07
                                                    • 52143

                                                    #3455
                                                    STR won?

                                                    go figure

                                                    I wanna buy him a meal to pick his brain

                                                    I hit the pick 4 (r10-13) yesterday in balty for $1100

                                                    $63 ticket

                                                    but im here today to talk about a bomb in the finale @ Belmont

                                                    we are on the AE list , but the #15 Low is Laine (30-1)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Easy-Rider 66
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 02-14-12
                                                      • 36084

                                                      #3456
                                                      Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                      STR won?

                                                      go figure

                                                      I wanna buy him a meal to pick his brain

                                                      I hit the pick 4 (r10-13) yesterday in balty for $1100

                                                      $63 ticket

                                                      but im here today to talk about a bomb in the finale @ Belmont

                                                      we are on the AE list , but the #15 Low is Laine (30-1)
                                                      Good going Lkid. Playing a Belmont contest today, and will give the #15 a look if he draws in. GL.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • str
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                        • 11558

                                                        #3457
                                                        Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                        Damon dilodovico is 100% juicing horses

                                                        this dude gonna be caught soon

                                                        but until that time , use his ponies


                                                        oh and I don’t care what anyway says


                                                        maximum security won the derby


                                                        Im ordering custom derby glass
                                                        LKID,

                                                        You know I would never BS you about any trainer that I know and ran against and had direct knowledge of honest or dishonest, and I knew all of them.

                                                        Having reassured you of that, Damon has is an honest trainer. He was stabled right next to my barn at Laurel for the last 4-5 years that I trained. And yes, he did things with horses that made me wonder if he was cheating. But he was not. Never did IMO. He is THAT good.
                                                        The guy really does well with older geldings but is fine with all types.
                                                        I walked into his barn a multitude of times unannounced and trust me, I would have seen something if that were the case. My vets, the most honest group in Maryland for the last 50 years, do his vet work .
                                                        Gotta trust me on this one Kid. All he does is work his ass off. When he is finished training, for years, he would climb the camera pole at Laurel and work the head on through the lane. Don't have to tell you how friggin cold it is 80 feet up in a steel barrel for 5 hours a day in the winter. He did that. Nowadays he works the audio, video for the Laurel feed.
                                                        There are a handful of trainers that I would have had train for me if I had decided to keep a few horses. He would have been one of them. Like I said, IMO he's that good.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • str
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-12-09
                                                          • 11558

                                                          #3458
                                                          Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                                          Congrats STR on winning the Beat the Bag Preakness contest. Do you have a bitcoin account? I scored in the Super Bowl squares contest $250 but do not use bitcoin. Cost me the cash.
                                                          Thanks Easy.

                                                          Yes. I created an account a couple of years ago so I could cash out in the BTP contest as well as other things.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • str
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-12-09
                                                            • 11558

                                                            #3459
                                                            Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                            STR won?

                                                            go figure

                                                            I wanna buy him a meal to pick his brain

                                                            I hit the pick 4 (r10-13) yesterday in balty for $1100

                                                            $63 ticket

                                                            but im here today to talk about a bomb in the finale @ Belmont

                                                            we are on the AE list , but the #15 Low is Laine (30-1)
                                                            Great job Kid!

                                                            Lets see if your horse draws in.

                                                            If you are ever in Maryland and at the track, PM me a day or 2 before and let me know. I will meet you at Laurel .
                                                            Comment
                                                            • batt33
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-23-16
                                                              • 5981

                                                              #3460
                                                              Congrats STR!
                                                              Had to create a Bitcoin account to for the same reasons...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • str
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 11558

                                                                #3461
                                                                So now what do we do with that bias at Pimlico from Friday and Saturday?

                                                                I recapped Friday in a post 3445 so how about Saturday. There were 6 dirt races. The winner of the 3rd race broke from the 2 post and was in the 2 path the entire trip. The 6th race was won by the 1 horse who closed to win but was on the rail the entire trip. The 8th race was won by the one horse who led on the rail the entire trip. The 11th race was won by, yep, you guessed it, the 1 horse who raced and closed along the rail and paid 37.00. He was 22-1 when they were loading in the gate . Those that recognized the bias pounded him down to 17-1 in the last minute. The 13th race was won by the 1 horse who stayed on the rail the entire trip. The 14th was won by a horse in the 2 path.
                                                                So, two 2 path winners and 4 rail trips won the 6 dirt races.

                                                                For those that have not read this thread through, I go into great detail about how to monitor the area under the rail so as to know when a grading has occurred. If you are into biases, I encourage you to read more about it. You can use keywords to help search so maybe try grader, bias, outside closers etc., or just try and skim through but it is a lot to skim through.

                                                                Not every grading creates a bias but in Md. , most gradings change the track from outside to even or in this case, even / slightly outside to crazy inside.
                                                                I won't bore you with the details but when the grader operator is used to grading Laurel for almost the entire year , if they are not careful they will try and grade Pimlico the same way. That does not work. No need to bore you with the reasons but I watched this occur for years. And when it did, anyone that saw it for what it was had a huge advantage over the other customers. THAT, is what occurred the last 2 days and that is why I mentioned it Friday morning. Some TV announcers picked up on it yesterday after a few number ones had won. I hope some of you read what I posted on Friday morning and took advantage of what turned out to be a 3 star rail both days.

                                                                Moving forward, it will be to your advantage to go back and watch replays or at least read the charts, but replays are more accurate, and find those horses that had very outside trips. Especially the ones that were expected to run well but did not. Watch for those to run back and perform much better next time. If they are running against easier horses, all the better. And as for the winners, they will probably be bet down and in my book will be play against horses next time out. Some of them will run well, but plenty will not and will probably be favorites or close to it.

                                                                By adding a 3 star bias mark in your form as these horses, both with the bias and against it run back over the next several weeks you will have info that 99.9% of customers do not have. Another solid edge for you vs. the other pari mutuel players.
                                                                As I have said before, I sure hope this helps some of you that read it.
                                                                Last edited by str; 05-19-19, 12:15 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • str
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-12-09
                                                                  • 11558

                                                                  #3462
                                                                  Originally posted by batt33
                                                                  Congrats STR!
                                                                  Had to create a Bitcoin account to for the same reasons...
                                                                  Thanks Batt33.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • str
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                                    • 11558

                                                                    #3463
                                                                    Originally posted by BetterBizness
                                                                    It’s only been 8 years but I found ya... what a wealth of knowledge in this thread thanks str
                                                                    Thanks for the kind words.

                                                                    Glad you found it.

                                                                    Any questions, please let me know.

                                                                    GL.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JBEX
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                                      • 23081

                                                                      #3464
                                                                      congrats on the contest str !!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • mrginandtonic
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 09-11-09
                                                                        • 7731

                                                                        #3465
                                                                        Originally posted by str
                                                                        So now what do we do with that bias at Pimlico from Friday and Saturday?

                                                                        I recapped Friday in a post 3445 so how about Saturday. There were 6 dirt races. The winner of the 3rd race broke from the 2 post and was in the 2 path the entire trip. The 6th race was won by the 1 horse who closed to win but was on the rail the entire trip. The 8th race was won by the one horse who led on the rail the entire trip. The 11th race was won by, yep, you guessed it, the 1 horse who raced and closed along the rail and paid 37.00. He was 22-1 when they were loading in the gate . Those that recognized the bias pounded him down to 17-1 in the last minute. The 13th race was won by the 1 horse who stayed on the rail the entire trip. The 14th was won by a horse in the 2 path.
                                                                        So, two 2 path winners and 4 rail trips won the 6 dirt races.

                                                                        For those that have not read this thread through, I go into great detail about how to monitor the area under the rail so as to know when a grading has occurred. If you are into biases, I encourage you to read more about it. You can use keywords to help search so maybe try grader, bias, outside closers etc., or just try and skim through but it is a lot to skim through.

                                                                        Not every grading creates a bias but in Md. , most gradings change the track from outside to even or in this case, even / slightly outside to crazy inside.
                                                                        I won't bore you with the details but when the grader operator is used to grading Laurel for almost the entire year , if they are not careful they will try and grade Pimlico the same way. That does not work. No need to bore you with the reasons but I watched this occur for years. And when it did, anyone that saw it for what it was had a huge advantage over the other customers. THAT, is what occurred the last 2 days and that is why I mentioned it Friday morning. Some TV announcers picked up on it yesterday after a few number ones had won. I hope some of you read what I posted on Friday morning and took advantage of what turned out to be a 3 star rail both days.

                                                                        Moving forward, it will be to your advantage to go back and watch replays or at least read the charts, but replays are more accurate, and find those horses that had very outside trips. Especially the ones that were expected to run well but did not. Watch for those to run back and perform much better next time. If they are running against easier horses, all the better. And as for the winners, they will probably be bet down and in my book will be play against horses next time out. Some of them will run well, but plenty will not and will probably be favorites or close to it.

                                                                        By adding a 3 star bias mark in your form as these horses, both with the bias and against it run back over the next several weeks you will have info that 99.9% of customers do not have. Another solid edge for you vs. the other pari mutuel players.
                                                                        As I have said before, I sure hope this helps some of you that read it.
                                                                        First of all, congrats on winning the contest!! Nicely done!!

                                                                        As for Pimlico, that was some crazy bias for sure. What I found more intriguing is that there are so many horse that bore out during the turns. It's like almost in every race and in every turn; didn't matter if it was dirt or turf. I don't think I have ever seen that happened so frequently in the same day. Or was I imaging it?? Was it the track?? Or may be just happens to be the race that I was watching since I had to work the past few days and just watched when I can. Just seems like a lot.
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