Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

Geez, what a weirdly run race.

Seems your horse was a solid pick but too many things to overcome to win that race.

The horse is just learning and relax is not quite understood yet. That could be a byproduct of the blks. on the 1st two races, I don't know for sure though. He was trying to relax, but was not doing too good of a job of it early on and that rider on the outside sends his horse at the 5/8ths pole. Weird. Then, the other outside horse decides to send. Again, weird. Your horse had every chance to quit and be discouraged but did not. Ran well but had a very tough trip dealing with all that took place.
He is probably worth a bet back unless bet down at the same level. Hopefully he can lay just off the pace, relax a bit more and go when asked. Looks like he should be able to do that. Maybe his next race will be more typical instead of horses running for the lead all down the backside.
As for the angle, you know I like stretch outs and he did not disappoint. I have to admit, I have never understood blks. off very well. I guess it was because I started my horses out with them off 95% of the time and added them when and if needed. I see no point in running a firster in blinkers unless you are all out to win 1st time out or the horse is somewhat goofy about their surroundings. But plenty of people do it so I guess it's all about how you learned the game.
All in all, a solid try and play as far as I'm concerned.
Nice job JBEX.

thanks str ..yes I thought that was a solid effort under the circumstances.. the key parts were as you described (better than me) two horses moving early at different times and the horse not settling in on the backstretch.. he showed a lot of fight from about the quarter pole (guessing) through the stretch
considering above circumstances.. hey hart if you could put this one down as a stable horse I'd appreciate it.. given up on doing it myself as it doesn't seem to work like it used to.. maybe going to spam only thing I can think of

[JBEX]

hey str


there's a first time starter at laurel R1 #3 muchacho (15-1)..homebred (maryland bred) (sinatra thoroughbreds if that's familiar).. but my question the horse has a sprint pedigree top and bottom and coming in with steady fair hill works.. you like the combination of a debut horse with a sprint ped coming in from there.. what is it wood chips or something like that and gets them really fit.?

btw your friend mark reid has a 2nd time starter (#1.. 3-1)dropping msw to mcl which he's great at..showed speed half and faded debut.. 7lb bug riding and he might be the top rider on the circuit right now.. no value with him though

[JBEX]

hey str


there's a first time starter at laurel R1 #3 muchacho (15-1)..homebred (maryland bred) (sinatra thoroughbreds if that's familiar).. but my question the horse has a sprint pedigree top and bottom and coming in with steady fair hill works.. you like the combination of a debut horse with a sprint ped coming in from there.. what is it wood chips or something like that and gets them really fit.?

btw your friend mark reid has a 2nd time starter (#1.. 3-1)dropping msw to mcl which he's great at..showed speed half and faded debut.. 7lb bug riding and he might be the top rider on the circuit right now.. no value with him though

str... you must watch this race and I won't say anything more...humor, what's-up-with-that and more all rolled up into one

[str]

hey str


there's a first time starter at laurel R1 #3 muchacho (15-1)..homebred (maryland bred) (sinatra thoroughbreds if that's familiar).. but my question the horse has a sprint pedigree top and bottom and coming in with steady fair hill works.. you like the combination of a debut horse with a sprint ped coming in from there.. what is it wood chips or something like that and gets them really fit.?

btw your friend mark reid has a 2nd time starter (#1.. 3-1)dropping msw to mcl which he's great at..showed speed half and faded debut.. 7lb bug riding and he might be the top rider on the circuit right now.. no value with him though

Fair Hill is a great place to come into a race fit. Pretty sure they have a dirt track which is typically demanding and really gets a horse fit, as well as a Tapeta artificial surface track. Don't ever shy away from a fair hill trained baby. Fitness is rarely if ever the problem. People see slow works and assume slow horse. Nothing could be further from the truth, especially there.
That was a great call JBEX. 50-1 ! Unreal.

My man Mark ! What a great guy he is. Have not seen him since Saratoga about 6 years ago. Damn, where does the time go.

As always, Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Fair Hill is a great place to come into a race fit. Pretty sure they have a dirt track which is typically demanding and really gets a horse fit, as well as a Tapeta artificial surface track. Don't ever shy away from a fair hill trained baby. Fitness is rarely if ever the problem. People see slow works and assume slow horse. Nothing could be further from the truth, especially there.
That was a great call JBEX. 50-1 ! Unreal.

My man Mark ! What a great guy he is. Have not seen him since Saratoga about 6 years ago. Damn, where does the time go.

As always, Thanks JBEX.

yeah I've always looked at it as a positive coming in from there just like pine meadows into gulfstream which both make sense geographically


the othere aspect I thought was interesting is the horse paId only $9.40 to place..little strange win price wouldn't have been lower but guess somebody felt good effort but no win ..probably about a $1-2K wager would do that on a horse with those odds there

brooks robinson the winner..had him pegged for 3rd lol

[JBEX]

yeah I've always looked at it as a positive coming in from there just like pine meadows into gulfstream which both make sense geographically


the othere aspect I thought was interesting is the horse paId only $9.40 to place..little strange win price wouldn't have been lower but guess somebody felt good effort but no win ..probably about a $1-2K wager would do that on a horse with those odds there

brooks robinson the winner..had him pegged for 3rd lol

did you ever see the earl weaver miked arguing with an umpire video?? it's hilarious

[str]

yeah I've always looked at it as a positive coming in from there just like pine meadows into gulfstream which both make sense geographically


the othere aspect I thought was interesting is the horse paId only $9.40 to place..little strange win price wouldn't have been lower but guess somebody felt good effort but no win ..probably about a $1-2K wager would do that on a horse with those odds there

brooks robinson the winner..had him pegged for 3rd lol

Lololol. Love the Brooks comment !

[str]

did you ever see the earl weaver miked arguing with an umpire video?? it's hilarious

Oh yeah . I heard it.

I have a totally unedited 3 minute segment of Weaver when he was taping manager's corner, a show that came on the radio just before the game started each game. He started in cussing and dropping F' bombs all over the place. I have heard milder versions of it since but I got this recording from a guy in the organization. OMG, he would make a sailor blush in this thing. It was done in 1982. Google it, you will find it but make sure no women or children are nearby. Not sure if what you will find is the milder version or not.
He was without question my favorite manager after hearing it. Haha.

There is also a Tommy Lasorda tape when he visits the mound in a Dodger/ Yankee series. Ever heard that one ? Oh my !

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: will you be looking over the PP's for the KY Derby? If so, interested to get your take. Thx in advance.

[JBEX]

Oh yeah . I heard it.

I have a totally unedited 3 minute segment of Weaver when he was taping manager's corner, a show that came on the radio just before the game started each game. He started in cussing and dropping F' bombs all over the place. I have heard milder versions of it since but I got this recording from a guy in the organization. OMG, he would make a sailor blush in this thing. It was done in 1982. Google it, you will find it but make sure no women or children are nearby. Not sure if what you will find is the milder version or not.
He was without question my favorite manager after hearing it. Haha.

There is also a Tommy Lasorda tape when he visits the mound in a Dodger/ Yankee series. Ever heard that one ? Oh my !

omg weaver's got a sewer mouth lol..saw something on you tube (1:45) but looks like there might be other stuff also.. it was managers corner.. there's a few things on lasorda in the series with Yankees and not sure if I got right one.. one of them when the umpire comes to the mound to try to hurry things up and lasorda asks him whether he thought he should take out his pitcher lol.. the other the famous play where reggie stays still and the ball hits off his thigh... funny back in the day ralph kiner had a post mets game show called "kiners korner".. a little cleaner than earl's though lol

[str]

Hey STR: will you be looking over the PP's for the KY Derby? If so, interested to get your take. Thx in advance.

Yes. I hope to find the DRF version but if not, I will look for the other.

Will post about it in a few days.

Looking forward to seeing everyone's picks.

Thanks Easy !

[Easy-Rider 66]

Going with the #8 Tacitus STR. Boxing Maximum Security with him. Interested to get your take. GL.

[str]

Going with the #8 Tacitus STR. Boxing Maximum Security with him. Interested to get your take. GL.

GL Easy !

I will post something asap.

[str]

This years Derby is wide open , especially compared to years past. What makes it even more difficult is having to make a selection prior to seeing when and if the track will become muddy, sloppy, or stay fast. It could be any of those. I would also like to see how the track plays early as well as the horses react to the day which usually allows you to toss one or two and regain confidence on another.
All that said, I have felt that Game Winner would probably win this race since January. No other horse has made me change my mind and Game Winner has not either. So, at 6-1, he is my top pick.

Horses that I would also consider would be, in post position order, #2 Tax, #5 Improbable, #6 Vekoma, #8 Tacitus, #13 Code Of Honor, #14 Win Win Win,#17 Roadster, and # 20, Country House. I do not think all those can win but some of the scenarios that I try and put together pace and the position they should have draw me to them. Depending on how you would want to structure a ticket , these would be my other underneath horses.

Because some of these are bet down, using all of these favorites is not something I typically do. As the day unfolds, things might became clearer but as of now here is a brief reason for these horses.

Taking pace and trips into consideration,here is a brief reason for using them.

#16 Game Winner: With a very fast pace or relatively slow pace, he should be fine. You can't predict trouble but that goes for all of them . I think that training time lost in March is ancient history. He has run fine twice since then and his 7/8ths work a few days ago was great in my book. while it would have been nice to win the past two races, today is the race that has been circled for this horse since last year.

#2 Tax: This is all about the price for me. He is currently 36-1 . I'll take that underneath.

#5 Improbable: He would not surprise anyone if he won but I'm staying with Game Winner so at 5-1 I'm not sure if I will use him 2nd or only use him 3rd in a triple or 3rd and 4th in a super.

#6 Vekoma: If the pace is slow, although it does not appear to me that it will be and/or if the track is sloppy which typically favors speed in a race like this , 22-1 is good by me. He has never raced on the off track but his pedigree suggests he would like it. Currently about a 70% chance the track will be off so for now I use him. If I see speed collapsing all day long and the track is dry, I will reconsider but for now, he is on my ticket.

#8 Tacitus: Can't say that I like 5-1 which is where he currently sits but he has probably earned it. I know that it is doubtful I would use three favorites on a triple ticket, especially on a day like today, so something has to give, but he certainly deserves a mention and it would be no surprise if he runs well today.

#13 Code Of Honor: Currently 13-1 , he has run according to the pace and trip in his last two races. He won when the pace set him up and lost when the pace was against him. So which is it today? I lean fast early 1/2 mile but who knows for sure? If that is the case, he should be running well late. He is bred to like an off track. I see reasons to use him underneath my top choice. I need prices for a home run and this race is a race I almost always swing for the fences with exotics.

#14 Win Win Win: Currently 15-1, seems overbet to me but there is another reason I kept him in. He is trained by a lifelong Maryland trainer. Mike Trombetta is a great guy and winning this race would be incredible for him. Having known him since he was a teenager mucking stalls at Pimlico, I have to root for him and will use him underneath.

#17 Roadster: Currently 10-1, who is surprised if he runs well? Not many will be which means he will be on a lot of tickets so this might be another one that I use 3rd and/or 4th only looking for a price to fit the 2nd spot.

#20 Country House: Currently 63-1, for this guy, the faster the pace the better chance he has. A slow pace will all but doom his chances. He will probably be in the back 2 or 3 early so the pace must be hot for him to have a chance IMO. Should like an off track if that happens and will be running late so at that price, what the heck. I will say that his form shows him as a closer that he's lost ground from the 1/8th pole home in his last two races. That would usually turn me off but if that pace is stupid fast early, and the #1 horse should gun early, it's probably worth a swing at the high odds to be underneath on a few tickets.


I did not mention Maximum Security . He has done everything asked of him . But for me, he had a gift trip in the Fla. Derby with a 48 4/5ths first 1/2 mile and just walked the dog home. It is hard for me to give credit to a gift race not only for him but for any horse. If he wins today I won't be shocked, but I can't see using him on my tickets, especially being the current favorite at 9-2.

Good luck everyone!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good write up STR. GL today.

[cutchemist42]

Thanks for the writeup STR, wasn't going to go without seeing your opinion while handicapping. Your insight is awesome!!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Nice call on Country House STR. DQ to first.

[Easy-Rider 66]

And STR: DO you agree with the take down of Maximum Security? Thx in advance.

[str]

Nice call on Country House STR. DQ to first.

Thanks Easy.

[str]

And STR: DO you agree with the take down of Maximum Security? Thx in advance.

The one word Answer : Yes.

My take: The interviews in the 20 minute window after the race and before the decision were exactly, darn near to the word, correct, true, and exactly the way the game is.

It was a no brainer. And I honestly feel that it took as long as it did because the Stewards hated to be in that position, did not want to have to do it, knew what was right, and needed time to let the moment sink in. I would venture to guess that they watched it over and over trying to see something to undue what they knew needed to be done. I mean, who wants to be them in that position? Nobody. They did what they had to do but they felt terrible about it.
They will and are taking a ton of heat but it was, according to the rules of racing, the correct call.



As for the rider on the 20 horse. Someone said, " he took a shot". I can't tell you how many times a rider came back to me and said exactly that when claiming a foul or a foul was claimed against us. That is exactly what happened. You could see it in his face when the change occurred . He was like the cat with a canary feather in his mouth.

My question is, did the inquiry sign ever go up? Seems to me that it should have. Also, did the Stewards talk to the bothered riders in the jocks room after he weighed out? Probably but it would be nice to know.


Lastly, Maximum Security. He ran his ass off. His rider rode his ass off. Darn shame that the horse ducked out from the crowd noise but indeed, that is exactly how horses react when they get sidetracked mentally. The rider corrected him as soon as it happened, but it did happen. Below is a picture of the impeded horse turned sideways. Also, look at the rider directly behind him with the red cap as well as the rider inside of that one in the blue silks.
Like I said, it's a shame all of that happened, but the bigger shame would be for the Stewards to turn a blind eye to it because it's the Derby.

Feel free to follow up if there are any other questions.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR. Thx for the take. I agree with the call as well.

[mrginandtonic]

I agree and I disagree. If we go strictly with the rules, then I can understand that may be he should have been taken down. What I don't get was why wasn't there any inquiry post it? That tells me that it was an incident that the stewards did not considered it initially that could have changed the outcome of the race. Maximum Security was the best horse which I have believed all along. In addition, did that foul call warrant
Max Security to be placed 17th?? I honestly don't think so. If the jockey affected, Tyler Gaffalione, had made the objection, it would have had more substance to the call. But when Prat made the objection, he was just an opportunist who was taken a shot at the situation and hoping Max to come down. It's like someone in a basketball game calling a foul who was 10 ft away. Someone else has posted an article regarding the rules in US and else where. If this incident happened in France where Prat was from, Maximum Security would have never come down. It is almost like an unwritten rule among jockeys that on a big race if the jockey did not deliberately causing the incident, you just don't call it; especially when it's the Kentucky Derby. Why do you think this is the first time it has happened in 145 years?? Everyone is trying to politically correct. It is pitiful. Yes, I am a sore loser. I have a lot of respect for Bill Mott as a trainer, but to get your first Derby win this way, it is a win full of blemish; especially when your horse was 65-1.

[str]

I agree and I disagree. If we go strictly with the rules, then I can understand that may be he should have been taken down. What I don't get was why wasn't there any inquiry post it? That tells me that it was an incident that the stewards did not considered it initially that could have changed the outcome of the race. Maximum Security was the best horse which I have believed all along. In addition, did that foul call warrant
Max Security to be placed 17th?? I honestly don't think so. If the jockey affected, Tyler Gaffalione, had made the objection, it would have had more substance to the call. But when Prat made the objection, he was just an opportunist who was taken a shot at the situation and hoping Max to come down. It's like someone in a basketball game calling a foul who was 10 ft away. Someone else has posted an article regarding the rules in US and else where. If this incident happened in France where Prat was from, Maximum Security would have never come down. It is almost like an unwritten rule among jockeys that on a big race if the jockey did not deliberately causing the incident, you just don't call it; especially when it's the Kentucky Derby. Why do you think this is the first time it has happened in 145 years?? Everyone is trying to politically correct. It is pitiful. Yes, I am a sore loser. I have a lot of respect for Bill Mott as a trainer, but to get your first Derby win this way, it is a win full of blemish; especially when your horse was 65-1.

" What I don't get was why wasn't there any inquiry post it?

A. I don't understand that either. Very surprising.


"That tells me that it was an incident that the stewards did not considered it initially that could have changed the outcome of the race.

A. I hear you loud and clear. Agreed.

" Maximum Security was the best horse which I have believed all along.

A. he was clearly the best horse and you were right Mr. G. and T.

"In addition, did that foul call warrant
Max Security to be placed 17th?? I honestly don't think so. If the jockey affected, Tyler Gaffalione, had made the objection, it would have had more substance to the call. But when Prat made the objection, he was just an opportunist who was taken a shot at the situation and hoping Max to come down.

A. Once they were dealing with the objection, they took a look at all that were impeded and while they can indeed do that, and do do that often enough, an inquiry posted would have allowed that to be smoother IMO.

" Someone else has posted an article regarding the rules in US and else where. If this incident happened in France where Prat was from, Maximum Security would have never come down.

A. Yes. that is true. USA rules are different and they have always been. IMO what that has led to is each state or set of Stewards have over the years started interpreting and enforcing things differently. Like Calif. a few years back. I never raced under the rules that Steward Edwards judged and he didn't either. It has evolved into this because of the way the rules are written . That is a shame. If nothing else, maybe this will lead to reexamining the letter of the rules and allow for them to be amended so every jurisdiction is on the same page. The way it is now, that is not the case.

" It is almost like an unwritten rule among jockeys that on a big race if the jockey did not deliberately causing the incident, you just don't call it; especially when it's the Kentucky Derby.

A. That could be true, I do not know about today but when I was in the game it was more like, if an incident did not actually cost the rider the race. In other words, if the horse was out of gas and the rider knew it, and he gets fouled, he lets it go. My guess is that is exactly what Tyler had in mind when he decided not to claim foul. Was he fouled? Yes. Did it cost him from being right there at the finish? No. So he lets it go. That common courtesy within the riding colony has been like that for the last 50 years for sure.

" Why do you think this is the first time it has happened in 145 years??"

A. I get it Mr. G and T. I would be upset as well if I had bet on him mainly because over the years, it never happened and we all know the Derby is rarely a clean run race due to the amount of horses in it.

"Everyone is trying to politically correct. It is pitiful. "

A. I agree again. I hope that it is not that but it very well could be. One thing I go crazy about is when the goal posts change well after a precedent has been established. It drives me nuts.

" Yes, I am a sore loser. "

A. Nothing wrong with that in my book . That only tells me you are passionate about the game and the things you do. Passion drives success in my book and I would never hold that against you. And in this case, although the rules were followed, the circumstances were such that if this happened in that race yesterday, it should happen for as long as the rules stay as is. No swallow the whistle in big races. It should be all or nothing throughout racing. Total uniformity so the customer knows exactly what to expect going in. Or, and probably better still, reexamine the rules and go with the European version. Lastly, it would probably be much more fan friendly if they stopped taking horses down for betting purposes all together. These things IMO would be best suited to only affect the purses. That way, it would not have to happen within minutes and when Stewards are in any certain humor albeit happy or pissed off.

"I have a lot of respect for Bill Mott as a trainer, but to get your first Derby win this way, it is a win full of blemish; especially when your horse was 65-1."

A. He said it was bittersweet and you could tell he meant it.


Sorry Mr. G. and T. That had to suck. But from a handicapping perspective, you were absolutely right. You picked the best horse. Even though you don't get paid, do feel good about the correct call. Handicapping can be as much about confidence as anything else. The horse you bet was MUCH the best. Well done sir.

[mrginandtonic]

" What I don't get was why wasn't there any inquiry post it?

A. I don't understand that either. Very surprising.


"That tells me that it was an incident that the stewards did not considered it initially that could have changed the outcome of the race.

A. I hear you loud and clear. Agreed.

" Maximum Security was the best horse which I have believed all along.

A. he was clearly the best horse and you were right Mr. G. and T.

"In addition, did that foul call warrant
Max Security to be placed 17th?? I honestly don't think so. If the jockey affected, Tyler Gaffalione, had made the objection, it would have had more substance to the call. But when Prat made the objection, he was just an opportunist who was taken a shot at the situation and hoping Max to come down.

A. Once they were dealing with the objection, they took a look at all that were impeded and while they can indeed do that, and do do that often enough, an inquiry posted would have allowed that to be smoother IMO.

" Someone else has posted an article regarding the rules in US and else where. If this incident happened in France where Prat was from, Maximum Security would have never come down.

A. Yes. that is true. USA rules are different and they have always been. IMO what that has led to is each state or set of Stewards have over the years started interpreting and enforcing things differently. Like Calif. a few years back. I never raced under the rules that Steward Edwards judged and he didn't either. It has evolved into this because of the way the rules are written . That is a shame. If nothing else, maybe this will lead to reexamining the letter of the rules and allow for them to be amended so every jurisdiction is on the same page. The way it is now, that is not the case.

" It is almost like an unwritten rule among jockeys that on a big race if the jockey did not deliberately causing the incident, you just don't call it; especially when it's the Kentucky Derby.

A. That could be true, I do not know about today but when I was in the game it was more like, if an incident did not actually cost the rider the race. In other words, if the horse was out of gas and the rider knew it, and he gets fouled, he lets it go. My guess is that is exactly what Tyler had in mind when he decided not to claim foul. Was he fouled? Yes. Did it cost him from being right there at the finish? No. So he lets it go. That common courtesy within the riding colony has been like that for the last 50 years for sure.

" Why do you think this is the first time it has happened in 145 years??"

A. I get it Mr. G and T. I would be upset as well if I had bet on him mainly because over the years, it never happened and we all know the Derby is rarely a clean run race due to the amount of horses in it.

"Everyone is trying to politically correct. It is pitiful. "

A. I agree again. I hope that it is not that but it very well could be. One thing I go crazy about is when the goal posts change well after a precedent has been established. It drives me nuts.

" Yes, I am a sore loser. "

A. Nothing wrong with that in my book . That only tells me you are passionate about the game and the things you do. Passion drives success in my book and I would never hold that against you. And in this case, although the rules were followed, the circumstances were such that if this happened in that race yesterday, it should happen for as long as the rules stay as is. No swallow the whistle in big races. It should be all or nothing throughout racing. Total uniformity so the customer knows exactly what to expect going in. Or, and probably better still, reexamine the rules and go with the European version. Lastly, it would probably be much more fan friendly if they stopped taking horses down for betting purposes all together. These things IMO would be best suited to only affect the purses. That way, it would not have to happen within minutes and when Stewards are in any certain humor albeit happy or pissed off.

"I have a lot of respect for Bill Mott as a trainer, but to get your first Derby win this way, it is a win full of blemish; especially when your horse was 65-1."

A. He said it was bittersweet and you could tell he meant it.


Sorry Mr. G. and T. That had to suck. But from a handicapping perspective, you were absolutely right. You picked the best horse. Even though you don't get paid, do feel good about the correct call. Handicapping can be as much about confidence as anything else. The horse you bet was MUCH the best. Well done sir.

Thank you sir for your sentiments. I was just venting and I thought the decision to place him 17th was total wrong. Especially, when there was $1.5 million wagered on him to win and $1.3 million for him to show. Putting him 17th just doesn't make any sense other than.....

Anyways, I think I am done venting and I hope that they both return to the Preakness. When I was capping the Derby, he actually reminded him a lot like last year's winner, Justify. While he may be far from Justify, but he has a lot of natural speed and stamina and the way he was gliding over the track. It seems so effortlessly.

[str]

Thank you sir for your sentiments. I was just venting and I thought the decision to place him 17th was total wrong. Especially, when there was $1.5 million wagered on him to win and $1.3 million for him to show. Putting him 17th just doesn't make any sense other than.....

Anyways, I think I am done venting and I hope that they both return to the Preakness. When I was capping the Derby, he actually reminded him a lot like last year's winner, Justify. While he may be far from Justify, but he has a lot of natural speed and stamina and the way he was gliding over the track. It seems so effortlessly.

Yeah, I knew you were venting. It is frustrating for sure. Just thought I would help talk you through it.

Onward and upward Mr. G and T. You can still shoot for the handicapping triple crown by picking all three legs of who crosses the finish line first. That's the only part you can control.

[Thunderground]

nm.

[Easy-Rider 66]

https://youtu.be/j68rqh8UuQo

Hey STR: this vid was posted on Horse Racing Nation. Slow MO vid of the moment in question for why Max Security may have veered out. Looks like the #1 War of Will veered in toward the rail first almost causing them to clip heels. Then Max Security moves. Interested to get your take. Thx.

[JBEX]

your video easy

[Easy-Rider 66]

THx Jbex. Interested to get yours, STR, Mr G&T, Hart, etc takes.

[str]

your video easy

Only look at Max. Security's white left front foot. He is leading with his left lead ( foot) as the tape starts while in the turn. That is exactly what he is taught to do. The inside leg around a banked turn will allow him to stay in his path as his weight and stride are in sync with the banked turn. Stop the tape at :57 and you see the white left foot still leading. Now go until 1:01 and stop it again. You will notice that he switched leads in the turn prematurely as at 101-1:03 you now see the white LEFT foot planted and the other white RIGHT foot extended. That was probably caused by what the rider called crowd noise. Horses will do that as a defense mechanism kind of like when we get startled while walking and put our hands out a bit or open or hands and brace ourselves for a 1/2 a second. Also notice that his ears are back at that 57 mark but look at them at 1:03. They are up, only for a few seconds but they are which tells me the horse momentarily lost focus of the race and was thinking, probably about the crowd noise.
But because the horse is on his outside lead, he has to move out at least the width of his body. About 3 or maybe 4 feet. But...the centrifugal force of running around a banked turn on the outside lead (or leg highest up a banked curve) will pull him further out. THAT is why he continues to go outward. That going outward from centrifugal force continues until the end of the tape. But as soon as he gets off the bank and into the stretch, he is fine.
This angle makes things much clearer

I also read where the rider on the 17, I think, ALSO claimed foul. I never knew that. That makes sense.
As for the inquiry sign, there are spotters positioned at various poles that are in direct communication with the Stewards all along the race about every 1/4 mile in stands. If they see something, they tell the Stewards. Not sure why that did not happen which would have led to an inquiry for sure. I will say that if there is a so called Blind spot in a race, where this stuff started is right in that general spot. That is NOT any excuse at all, but it is the truth and I thought I would share that for whatever it is worth, which might not be much.

Great angle. Thanks guys. Follow up if it is difficult to see what I speak to and I will try and articulate what I see better.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR: Thx for the explanation. Can cleary see Max Secuirty changed leads early.

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, just read the news that jockey Luis Saez got a 15 days suspension for his ride at the Derby. I don't think this is justified. 15 Days would mean to me that the stewards thought he deliberately caused the incident. According to the article, the normal suspension is 3 days. What are your thoughts?

[str]

Sir STR, just read the news that jockey Luis Saez got a 15 days suspension for his ride at the Derby. I don't think this is justified. 15 Days would mean to me that the stewards thought he deliberately caused the incident. According to the article, the normal suspension is 3 days. What are your thoughts?

The 15 days is indeed a sign that the Stewards feel an incident within the race was done at the discretion of the rider or, in other words, deliberately.
Remember I talked about phrases that riders and trainers use when I referred to " taking a shot", or, claiming a foul on a hope and a prayer. Well, " race riding" is another phrase used which refers to riders riding rough or with the will to intimidate. ( Back to this in a minute.)

IMO, the horse switching leads in the turn and the subsequent action that followed is NOT a reason for any days, much less 15 days IMO. If a horse bolts out or ducks out and the rider moves to correct immediately, that rider has done all he or she could do. I feel that Saez DID do that when his horse moved out from the lead change.
I am wondering if the excessive days are due to the " race riding" that took place just after the incident in which Saez moves his mount back inward but continues to move closer to the rail, obviously to tighten the hole on the inside that Code Of Honor was trying to run through. He came all the way back over and bumped, albeit lightly, but he did bump, not brush IMO, Code Of Honor and then proceeded to outrun him to the finish line. THAT is the art of "race riding".
So was THAT it? Or was the incident when Max Sec. switched leads in the turn it, or a culmination of both. Do they feel he was playing bumper cars?

The ruling said the suspension is for "failure to control his mount and make the proper effort to maintain a straight course thereby causing interference with several rivals that resulted in the disqualification of his mount."

The wording is too vague to understand exactly what the Stewards are talking about in particular.

All of that said, it is my opinion that Saez deserved NO days for his ride in the Ky. Derby. I know that people within the business are split on if he should have come down or not. My opinion is regrettably and with much angst, he should have. I say that because he was the best horse and I hate to see the betting public or Max Security pay a price for what happened. The rules pertaining to the betting should be reexamined IMO but I already talked about that last week. But the bottom line is it happened and it wasn't slight or ticky tacky. It was a real thing.

But as for any days, because it is obvious to me that the rider did all he could do as quickly as he could have, to say that the rider "failed to make the proper effort to maintain a straight course", THAT, when speaking to the lead switching and around the turn is wholly inaccurate.
And if it is for race riding Code Of Honor, or a combination of the two, than they should have said so.

The last thought for me is, are they trying to somehow justify the call they made to the public? Wow, I hope not. What a mess that will be.

Credibility and respect is paramount within the game for the Stewards. They talk to riders everyday. Same with Trainers. And I will bet that they will be hard pressed to gain much of any support from either group on this call.

For just my take, I feel it is a terrible decision that will only undermine the Kentucky Stewards respectability moving forward unless something is brought to the table that nobody has heard yet.

The race is below and the "race riding", which fans see all the time, is at 2:12 of the video. It might seem that I am trying to make a case for the Stewards decision. I am not. I am simply trying to understand it and i'm grabbing at straws to try and figure out what the heck they are actually talking about.

All in all Mr. GandT, this thing is a real mess, and IMO the Stewards have nobody to blame but themselves.

[JBEX]

hey str

improbable in all his races prior to the derby averaged less than 2 lengths off the pace at the first call and just a shade over 1 length at the 2nd call..do you think at pimlico
that could be extra helpfull as compared to other tracks in general?

also was just looking at a stat that amazed me..through the brisnet pp's the last 57 races run at pimlico in this range..

9f +
3yo
handicap/graded stakes
$125K - $3M purse

guessing this goes back a long ways limiting it to 3yo's..it's possible I read it wrong but don't think so the way they said it "All 3yo "

44% winning favorites !!

74% in the money

9.5 avg field size

$8.20 median win price *
*a little puzzling that high but i'll at least assume the win % is true ..probably has to do with avg vs median and they are big fields


you're able to see this in the pp's link that I posted..makes improbable (who I think will be post time favorite) that much scarier ...this stat surprise you ?

[JBEX]

hey str

improbable in all his races prior to the derby averaged less than 2 lengths off the pace at the first call and just a shade over 1 length at the 2nd call..do you think at pimlico
that could be extra helpfull as compared to other tracks in general?

also was just looking at a stat that amazed me..through the brisnet pp's the last 57 races run at pimlico in this range..

9f +
3yo
handicap/graded stakes
$125K - $3M purse

guessing this goes back a long ways limiting it to 3yo's..it's possible I read it wrong but don't think so the way they said it "All 3yo "

44% winning favorites !!

74% in the money

9.5 avg field size

$8.20 median win price *
*a little puzzling that high but i'll at least assume the win % is true ..probably has to do with avg vs median and they are big fields


you're able to see this in the pp's link that I posted..makes improbable (who I think will be post time favorite) that much scarier ...this stat surprise you ?

you know i think I know what mistake I made with that sample..believe it's all races in that category (not just pimlico) going back to 2017 or 2018.. makes some sense then ..still a very telling stat in my opinion