Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

hey str

if you want to see an impressive 3yo colt watch a replay of GP R2..he won his 1st 2 races by a combined 16 lengths..debut 6.5f comment "ridden out" and 2nd race 6f "wrapped up "..today* he won by 18+ lengths going 7f in* 1:21 3/5 so he's now 3 for 3..he's owned and bred by gary and mae west who also own game winner (must be nice to be* them).. he's a mega wealthy guy who's been involved in the game for a long time ..both buying and breeding I believe..anyway not to get off topic want to know if you think they would even consider the fountain of youth at 1 1/16 on the dirt next saturday ?? now that he's run 7f you'd think they wound want to try 2 turns next
but that's kind of a quick turnaround...on the other hand a dominating performance and if the foy field comes up weak maybe they would take a shot

Q. want to know if you think they would even consider the fountain of youth at 1 1/16 on the dirt next saturday ??

A. way back when, sure. But today, I doubt it. It leaves the trainer wide open for after the fact criticism. It puts him in a break even or lose position .
I don't know his spring schedule for all his Derby prospects but have to think there is room for this horse somewhere like Ark., Kent. or Louisiana or right there for the Fla. Derby.

Q. now that he's run 7f you'd think they wound want to try 2 turns next

A. I would certainly think so.

With the object being to be at peak the 1st Saturday in May, running back quickly, and probably running very well might set the horse back and take that away.

You never know for sure though. Wonder if he was nominated to that race? Probably was to the Fla. Derby.

[str]

I thought I would mention that Rudy Turcotte passed away this week.

He was Ron's brother of Secretariat fame but was a pretty darn good rider in his own right.

I knew him from the Maryland circuit and rode him , and won with him more than a few times.

He was a rider that I felt fit certain horses (he would have hated reading that as most riders do), and I gladly found him mounts that I felt worked best for him that carried weight.

He fought a tough battle with weight the entire time I knew him and it was very hard on him physically, mentally and emotionally. He worked his ass off to be able to make weight and he rode with brass balls. I really respected that.

Just another in a long list of riders that I learned from. He taught me about horses to some extent but he taught me way more about life and the struggles that people have.

I lost touch with him after he retired in 83 and can only hope that he overcame those struggles.

He had earned a chance at peace and happiness in my book. I sure hope he got there.

Rest in peace Rudy.

[JBEX]

Q. want to know if you think they would even consider the fountain of youth at 1 1/16 on the dirt next saturday ??



A. way back when, sure. But today, I doubt it. It leaves the trainer wide open for after the fact criticism. It puts him in a break even or lose position .
I don't know his spring schedule for all his Derby prospects but have to think there is room for this horse somewhere like Ark., Kent. or Louisiana or right there for the Fla. Derby.

Q. now that he's run 7f you'd think they wound want to try 2 turns next

A. I would certainly think so.

With the object being to be at peak the 1st Saturday in May, running back quickly, and probably running very well might set the horse back and take that away.

You never know for sure though. Wonder if he was nominated to that race? Probably was to the Fla. Derby.

my condolences on the passing of your friend rudy... i wasn't aware that ron had a brother but that was a little before I became really interested in the the game

maximum security is nominated for the triple crown races.. gabby actually mentioned it on tvg that the foy could be a possibility for him and respect her opinion..i guess if you run him in Florida the foy is too soon and maybe you don't want to send him a 1 1/8 vs grade 1's first time around two turns in the florida derby.. the tampa bay derby would give him 17 days off but that usually attracts a high quality field and still too soon (although not as good as the florida derby).. I think the timing of this win not ideal for a ky derby shot as the 2nd leg of the prep series at the major tracks is too soon and you may not want to send him straight to a major prep (fla, ark, sa,la derby, bluegrass or wood memorial).. With this owner i'm sure they'll do the right thing for the horse and not rush into anything too soon especially factoring in he does have a little something to root for with his other horse (game winner)

[JBEX]

my condolences on the passing of your friend rudy... i wasn't aware that ron had a brother but that was a little before I became really interested in the the game

maximum security is nominated for the triple crown races.. gabby actually mentioned it on tvg that the foy could be a possibility for him and respect her opinion..i guess if you run him in Florida the foy is too soon and maybe you don't want to send him a 1 1/8 vs grade 1's first time around two turns in the florida derby.. the tampa bay derby would give him 17 days off but that usually attracts a high quality field and still too soon (although not as good as the florida derby).. I think the timing of this win not ideal for a ky derby shot as the 2nd leg of the prep series at the major tracks is too soon and you may not want to send him straight to a major prep (fla, ark, sa,la derby, bluegrass or wood memorial).. With this owner i'm sure they'll do the right thing for the horse and not rush into anything too soon especially factoring in he does have a little something to root for with his other horse (game winner)

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/former-16000-claimer-maximum-security-turns-heads-at-gulfstream-park/

[JBEX]

hey str


was looking at gulfstream R13 a msw turf route.. saw a nicely bred filly trained by michael matz.. by curlin out of a stakes placed cozzene mare whose thrown 4 winners from 5 starters.. 1 of those a stakes winner and 3 of the 5 won on the turf.. but main reason i'm bringing this up is the breeder.. bred in maryland by sycamore hall thoroughbreds and owned by richard l golden.. was curious if golden was the main principle of that operation and sure enough he was.. are you familiar with him and that farm?

[str]

hey str


was looking at gulfstream R13 a msw turf route.. saw a nicely bred filly trained by michael matz.. by curlin out of a stakes placed cozzene mare whose thrown 4 winners from 5 starters.. 1 of those a stakes winner and 3 of the 5 won on the turf.. but main reason i'm bringing this up is the breeder.. bred in maryland by sycamore hall thoroughbreds and owned by richard l golden.. was curious if golden was the main principle of that operation and sure enough he was.. are you familiar with him and that farm?

I do know him but not well at all. I do not recognize Sycamore hall thoroughbreds from when I was there. There was a Sycamore stable for years back then but it was claiming so probably not him.
I think he was working with Northview Stallion Station but not positive. He was an owner that raced in his name when he first started I thought but that was way back when.

I am assuming he started his own breeding operation. No matter the case, he has been heavily involved in Md. breeding for some time as has had plenty of success with it.

[JBEX]

I do know him but not well at all. I do not recognize Sycamore hall thoroughbreds from when I was there. There was a Sycamore stable for years back then but it was claiming so probably not him.
I think he was working with Northview Stallion Station but not positive. He was an owner that raced in his name when he first started I thought but that was way back when.

I am assuming he started his own breeding operation. No matter the case, he has been heavily involved in Md. breeding for some time as has had plenty of success with it.

yes you are correct.. here's something recent about them

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/bloodstock/sycamore-hall-named-2018-maryland-breeder-of-the-year-great-notion-gets-stallion-title/

[JBEX]

hey str

I handicapped the whole card at parx tomorrow and through easy found out that they'll be very high winds and it'll almost surely be canceled.. will they make up this whole card on an off day?

[str]

hey str

I handicapped the whole card at parx tomorrow and through easy found out that they'll be very high winds and it'll almost surely be canceled.. will they make up this whole card on an off day?

Usually they just toss the card but if they run, it is a must that you check the wind direction.

Rule of thumb is if wind is running up the stretch ( left to right as you sit inside)it helps closers a lot. If the wind is blowing from right to left as you sit inside( as it probably does most often there) it really helps the speed stay. It is very difficult to run your fastest into the wind. It blows the horse AND rider all around and disrupts momentum.
I might be turned around on direction there but it always seemed to me that west was to the right of the track as you sat inside. No compass in a phone back then. Still used pay phones . Lol.
High wind can be a huge bias. Back in the day, they never cancelled for high wind. Today, as you know, they usually do.

[JBEX]

Usually they just toss the card but if they run, it is a must that you check the wind direction.

Rule of thumb is if wind is running up the stretch ( left to right as you sit inside)it helps closers a lot. If the wind is blowing from right to left as you sit inside( as it probably does most often there) it really helps the speed stay. It is very difficult to run your fastest into the wind. It blows the horse AND rider all around and disrupts momentum.
I might be turned around on direction there but it always seemed to me that west was to the right of the track as you sat inside. No compass in a phone back then. Still used pay phones . Lol.
High wind can be a huge bias. Back in the day, they never cancelled for high wind. Today, as you know, they usually do.

they did cancel the card as I expected.. the tailwind in the backstretch helping speed and in the stretch helping closers good to know.. thanks str

[JBEX]

they haven't canceled mahoning yet but have a hunch they will 18/30 mph gusts.. that track position wise is 1 o'clock - 7 o'clock ...i guess with that setup you get a tailwind on the clubhouse turn and headwind in the far turn.. sounds speed favoring to me especially in routes


only 1 route there today but the track is significantly speed favoring in sprints.. have to keep an eye on that if they run

[JBEX]

hey str


with the san felipe scheduled next saturday at santa anita there's lots of interesting things going on in the background with the top 3 (or some might say 1,2 and 4th) contenders for the derby.. baffert's duo of game winner and improbable along with hollendofer's instagrand scheduled to run..read somewhere that baffert might be bluffing and not intending to run his duo against each other but simply trying to scare off hollendofer from running instagrand against both of them..good time to mention that instagrand cost $1.2M as a 2yo .. he's undefeated in 2 starts.,both sprints.. after breaking his maiden @ 5f in june by 10 at los alamitos he won the best pal stakes @ 6f in august (G2) at dmr also by 10 lengths.. they decided to stop on him after that race and I don't think it was because of injury but I'm not sure

just makes no sense at all that these 3 run against each other in their 3yo debuts with all the other options available.. why would hollendofer run instagrand who has no route experience vs baffert's duo first time around two turns..and why would baffert want his top 2 to meet up in their 3yo debuts?? Sounds like it might be a game of chicken to me.. if hollendofer does decide to run instagrand in the san felipe baffert will send one of his to oaklawn to run in the rebel on 3/16 (a week later).. with these races coming up the following saturday and saturday after that when do these guys have to decide what they're going to do ??

[JBEX]

hey str


with the san felipe scheduled next saturday at santa anita there's lots of interesting things going on in the background with the top 3 (or some might say 1,2 and 4th) contenders for the derby.. baffert's duo of game winner and improbable along with hollendofer's instagrand scheduled to run..read somewhere that baffert might be bluffing and not intending to run his duo against each other but simply trying to scare off hollendofer from running instagrand against both of them..good time to mention that instagrand cost $1.2M as a 2yo .. he's undefeated in 2 starts.,both sprints.. after breaking his maiden @ 5f in june by 10 at los alamitos he won the best pal stakes @ 6f in august (G2) at dmr also by 10 lengths.. they decided to stop on him after that race and I don't think it was because of injury but I'm not sure

just makes no sense at all that these 3 run against each other in their 3yo debuts with all the other options available.. why would hollendofer run instagrand who has no route experience vs baffert's duo first time around two turns..and why would baffert want his top 2 to meet up in their 3yo debuts?? Sounds like it might be a game of chicken to me.. if hollendofer does decide to run instagrand in the san felipe baffert will send one of his to oaklawn to run in the rebel on 3/16 (a week later).. with these races coming up the following saturday and saturday after that when do these guys have to decide what they're going to do ??

thought this covers things pretty well

https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/letswastemoney/Analysis_Instagrands_unorthodox_schedule_makes_him_hard_to_trust_123

[str]

hey str


with the san felipe scheduled next saturday at santa anita there's lots of interesting things going on in the background with the top 3 (or some might say 1,2 and 4th) contenders for the derby.. baffert's duo of game winner and improbable along with hollendofer's instagrand scheduled to run..read somewhere that baffert might be bluffing and not intending to run his duo against each other but simply trying to scare off hollendofer from running instagrand against both of them..good time to mention that instagrand cost $1.2M as a 2yo .. he's undefeated in 2 starts.,both sprints.. after breaking his maiden @ 5f in june by 10 at los alamitos he won the best pal stakes @ 6f in august (G2) at dmr also by 10 lengths.. they decided to stop on him after that race and I don't think it was because of injury but I'm not sure

just makes no sense at all that these 3 run against each other in their 3yo debuts with all the other options available.. why would hollendofer run instagrand who has no route experience vs baffert's duo first time around two turns..and why would baffert want his top 2 to meet up in their 3yo debuts?? Sounds like it might be a game of chicken to me.. if hollendofer does decide to run instagrand in the san felipe baffert will send one of his to oaklawn to run in the rebel on 3/16 (a week later).. with these races coming up the following saturday and saturday after that when do these guys have to decide what they're going to do ??

Q. with these races coming up the following saturday and saturday after that when do these guys have to decide what they're going to do ?


A. I would think that Instagrads trainer has already decided. He had to know who was running where in all probability a month ago. That is when he, IMO, needed to know for sure where and when he was going to start. It's just not as easy as pointing to a certain week and then adding a week at the last minute when you are dealing with a young horse that has not run since Aug.

It's not as tough for Baffert as he ran into November. That 3-4 months is huge. So it seems to me that Instagrad would stay home and run there barring the track having the problems it seems to have when it is wet damn near every winter with the breakdowns. The track base issue is obviously driving the bus as of now.

[JBEX]

Q. with these races coming up the following saturday and saturday after that when do these guys have to decide what they're going to do ?


A. I would think that Instagrads trainer has already decided. He had to know who was running where in all probability a month ago. That is when he, IMO, needed to know for sure where and when he was going to start. It's just not as easy as pointing to a certain week and then adding a week at the last minute when you are dealing with a young horse that has not run since Aug.

It's not as tough for Baffert as he ran into November. That 3-4 months is huge. So it seems to me that Instagrad would stay home and run there barring the track having the problems it seems to have when it is wet damn near every winter with the breakdowns. The track base issue is obviously driving the bus as of now.

yes I read about the fatalities..the contrast of that happening against what might be one of the biggest pre-major derby prep races in a long time is quite remarkable..the days leading up to this race will be very interesting..i'd have to think the connections are having some second thoughts about running at santa anita

[JBEX]

just out a few hours ago.. instagrand will go in the gotham at aqueduct which is the same day as the san felipe.. a one turn mile.. just curious your thoughts on this str.. besides the obvious of not running against at least one of baffert's..do you think the fact that he has only won in 2 sprint races as a young 2yo (june,august) that the one turn mile might be a better transition race then going two turns right away??

[str]

just out a few hours ago.. instagrand will go in the gotham at aqueduct which is the same day as the san felipe.. a one turn mile.. just curious your thoughts on this str.. besides the obvious of not running against at least one of baffert's..do you think the fact that he has only won in 2 sprint races as a young 2yo (june,august) that the one turn mile might be a better transition race then going two turns right away??

Q. do you think the fact that he has only won in 2 sprint races as a young 2yo (june,august) that the one turn mile might be a better transition race then going two turns right away??[/QUOTE]


A. It is MILES better. For a horse with 2 lifetime starts, both sprints as a baby and now 7 months later trying to get up to a 1 1/4 mile race, it is perfect. 7/8ths would have put the horse in a tough spot to be where the trainer wants him to be in early May. Two turns would have been really tough mentally on this horse first time back. The relax factor would have been really tricky especially with very solid competition in the race.
Without relax, understand, and be ready to move when the rider asks, it is rare to win the Derby unless you are one of the greatest of all time. And even then, it's tough. ( Barring some crazy bias or mishap in the race. ). It has happened, but it's rare.

It is sooo hard to get a horse in this situation to try and understand relax, be fit, run the way the trainer wants to have you run which is not like a wild horse, kick on when asked, and oh yeah, WIN, this is the best he could have done. It is a very smart move IMO.
I will stick to what I said a few days ago. The trainer had to point for a date in which to run. The date did not change, only the venue. Travel like that used to be a big deal. Not so any more.
Under all the circumstances, I think the trainer did the best he possibly could have. That said, it's still a rush to get to early May the way he wants to. EVERYTHING must go just right, starting with this race. Then, I have to assume 1 1/8th. Any less and it really puts the horse in a compromising position.
It's a race against the clock as well as the other horses at this point. Things have to go as planned everyday until May. One straw in his path will knock him off the Derby trail and force the trainer to look at the Preakness , or no triple crown try at all, IMO.

Keep me posted on this JBEX.
I find it really interesting.
Thanks.

[JBEX]

Q. do you think the fact that he has only won in 2 sprint races as a young 2yo (june,august) that the one turn mile might be a better transition race then going two turns right away??

no problem str... i'm guessing a win or at least a solid try and he comes out of the race ok that they'll just go to the wood memorial.. I personally think he waited too long for the derby and ultimately he'll be a sprinter miler anyway .. realize that's not exactly a reach factoring in his first two races.. keep you posted if I here anything else

[JBEX]

hey str

just watched another chad brown horse win debuting at a mile at gulfstream..he's one of, if not the best at that there is..got me thinking besides the fact he gets so many expensive well bred horses to work with ($350k for this one ) his clients advisors must do an exceptional job evaluating talent relative to what they're spending..I always feel with his horses not only are you betting on an expensive,well bred horse but something that was meticulously scrutinized by the connections who bought it and these folks have many more hits than misses

[cutchemist42]

Hey str, not sure if you watched the Fountain of Youth but Twitter was really going back and forth on Hidden Scroll all week. (many reasons: Freakout slop performance, trying 2 turns 1st time, maiden to graded stakes is a decent jump, etc.)

After the race, Twitter was now jumping on how the horse will warrant consideration as that pace was very extreme. However, a 2nd point was being made about Rosario chasing that rediculous pace on a horse with no chance. (It was the only trip that Gladiator King had a chance with I guess?)

Should Rosario have let Gladiator King run and see if Hidden Scroll had the ability to come back?

Another point someone brought up is that the jockey for Gladiator King isn't even a fulltime jock anymore. How often does someone come back in for a race like that?

[JBEX]

hey str... thought you'd like this, from yesterday's paulick report

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/want-to-become-a-trainer-start-by-ponying-up/

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: As you noted there have been quite a few equine fatalities at SA in last couple of months. I believe about 20. What is your opionion of synthetic tracks? Are they safer than conventional? THx.

[str]

hey str

just watched another chad brown horse win debuting at a mile at gulfstream..he's one of, if not the best at that there is..got me thinking besides the fact he gets so many expensive well bred horses to work with ($350k for this one ) his clients advisors must do an exceptional job evaluating talent relative to what they're spending..I always feel with his horses not only are you betting on an expensive,well bred horse but something that was meticulously scrutinized by the connections who bought it and these folks have many more hits than misses

All that is very true. He has such a high demand that not only are they scrutinized very early but they go into training and if it is clear they are a cut below, they never start for him. Now every now and then one might get by but for the most part the lesser horses never even start once for him. He is indeed excellent at what he does as are the people behind the scenes who provide the scrutiny early on.
If he is starting them, they have already shown solid signs of being well qualified to win.

[JBEX]

All that is very true. He has such a high demand that not only are they scrutinized very early but they go into training and if it is clear they are a cut below, they never start for him. Now every now and then one might get by but for the most part the lesser horses never even start once for him. He is indeed excellent at what he does as are the people behind the scenes who provide the scrutiny early on.
If he is starting them, they have already shown solid signs of being well qualified to win.

so what happens to the horses that don't make the grade.. are they sold privately or given to another trainer?

[str]

Hey str, not sure if you watched the Fountain of Youth but Twitter was really going back and forth on Hidden Scroll all week. (many reasons: Freakout slop performance, trying 2 turns 1st time, maiden to graded stakes is a decent jump, etc.)

After the race, Twitter was now jumping on how the horse will warrant consideration as that pace was very extreme. However, a 2nd point was being made about Rosario chasing that rediculous pace on a horse with no chance. (It was the only trip that Gladiator King had a chance with I guess?)

Should Rosario have let Gladiator King run and see if Hidden Scroll had the ability to come back?

Another point someone brought up is that the jockey for Gladiator King isn't even a fulltime jock anymore. How often does someone come back in for a race like that?

First thing, I am sorry but I do not know how to post the replay with this response so can I ask someone to please post the video replay with this reply so the reader can follow along. I promise it will really help those that care to learn what to watch for in a race as well as being able to actually see things most fans cannot see. It will absolutely make you a better handicapper if you choose to spend some time doing this as well as make the replay watching ability far superior to most fans.

Please stop the race at the various spots to see what I am talking about and rewind as often as needed to see what I discribe.

At the 6 second mark , Hidden Scroll is on the verge of being squeezed back to last. Freeze the replay at 6 seconds and you will see what I mean. Now look at all the riders hands. Rosario's are in his lap. Now freeze at 8 seconds. The reins are slack and his hands are still back. I don't know if he maybe chirped to the horse to promote more speed or not but I am sure he could feel the natural speed from his mount and the tenseness the riders can feel when the horse is not relaxed. There is nothing I saw on the video. That is a question a trainer would ask the rider after the race.
At 10 seconds watch Rosario's right elbow move inward twice. That is him talking to the horse through the bit. He now knows he is moving fast enough to be in good outside position into the turn and is trying to get his mount to find a stride and a mental as well as physical comfort level to get the distance. He is doing everything he can do . All he can do now is hope for relax and understanding from a green colt at this point.

This is EXACTLY what I spoke about in post 3272 just above this one in regards to unseasoned colts trying 2 turns for the first time with only a sprint under their belt and in this horses case not much time to learn.

Let me say this before we go any further. At no time IMO did Gladiator King do anything to Hidden Scroll other than be entered. The only duel or anxiousness I saw was all between Hidden Scrolls ears. I do not feel that what you said twitter was saying had any merit whatsoever. With no disrespect to all that commented negatively about the ride, there level of watching all that transpires is just lacking somewhat IMO. After all , he is by Hard Spun who went 44 flat in the Kings Bishop with his mouth open ( easily) and drew off to win going 7/8ths . He is not made to take back far at all. But hey, maybe I am wrong. I don't mean to judge. At least not harshly.

Ok, back to the race.

If you watch the race between 23 and 28 seconds, Hidden Scrolls ears are going back and forth between forward and back one at a time. The horse is basically saying to himself, " What the hell is this".
More evidence that the struggle is internal.
IMO both he and the Rosario already know that the horse inside of him is no challenge whatsoever.

By 38 seconds, the already hopelessly beaten Gladiator King tries to move up because his rider sees Hidden Scroll has finally hit relax ( only somewhat though because of inexperience but to the best of Hidden Scrolls current ability to do so. ).
It's a shame that Gladiator King's rider did that but he is being paid to try his best so it was the only choice he had being as he was pinned inside with his right eye covered up and overmatched.

That pushed Hidden Scrolls ears back for 6 more seconds showing more burned energy . That 6 seconds was all Hidden Scroll not yet understanding relax yet. IMO Rosario could have done nothing to prevent that 6 seconds of burned energy.

( As a side note, watch the rider of Gladiator King between 59 and 1:00 look over at the rider on the 8 horse. It's quick but my guess is he said something like I'm done or got get him or something like that. He knows he is toast and that stuff happens all the time. )

At 1:09 the rider on the 8 horse moves his hands to signal his mount that it is time to go. The don't see it, they feel it in the bit and up there neck. To that point the horse had advanced on his own. Without urging. Note that Hidden Scrolls jock has his hands in his lap and the reins slack trying as hard as he can to keep his mount as calm as possible and preserve energy.
At 1:17 , the 8 horse is put to a full drive while Hidden Scroll is still not asked for a final kick. At 1.:26 Rosario shoots his last pre whip bullet and tries to steal off. Hopeful for a burst, Hidden Scroll gives him one, but it is not enough.

Rosario draws the stick left handed ( God I love that ! Reminds me of Larry Saumell the jock in my avatar.) and taps him at 1:41 then gathers the bit and puts it in the back of Hidden Scrolls mouth at 1:43 hopeful the horse has enough to grab the bit one more time. You can see this by watching Rosario's hands and reins swing outward, and then back together , and then hits him again at 1:46 to try and preserve 2nd place, switches sticks to his right hand at 1:49 for one last push to try and preserve 3rd but only shows the stick to the horse which I find to be a brilliant decision. The horse had given everything he had to give. There was nothing hitting him would have brought out.
The horse gave all he had. He was real tired as evidenced by him switching back to his left lead shortly after the finish line and well before the clubhouse turn.

I leave that replay by being impressed by two things. Hidden Scroll ran IMO as well as a horse in his position could have with the circumstances he had to overcome including breaking a step slow which started all of this off.
I am really impressed by the professionalism of Joel Rosario. And while one race does not make a full opinion but from what I saw here , he seems to be an exceptional rider. It took a top rider to do what he did off that race alone. Color me impressed !

I hope all this helps and I hope some of you take the time to see what I described.
If you can see some or all of what I described , you will have the ability to see more than 99% of the fans that watch races. That has to help in the long run.
As for how often a rider rides like Gladiator kings rider off and on, he was 100-1 . Probably the only one that really wanted to.
Please feel free to follow up and thanks for the question.
I learned that Hidden Scroll has a big upside if he can learn to relax. I will be surprised if he doesn't.

[str]

hey str... thought you'd like this, from yesterday's paulick report



https://www.paulickreport.com/news/r...by-ponying-up/

Thanks JBEX. Will reread it but seems spot on too me.
Cost me 10k to start up with ten horses in 1976.

Will read it again and maybe comment some more.
Thanks again.

[JBEX]

no problem str... here's the foy

[str]

First thing, I am sorry but I do not know how to post the replay with this response so can I ask someone to please post the video replay with this reply so the reader can follow along. I promise it will really help those that care to learn what to watch for in a race as well as being able to actually see things most fans cannot see. It will absolutely make you a better handicapper if you choose to spend some time doing this as well as make the replay watching ability far superior to most fans.

Please stop the race at the various spots to see what I am talking about and rewind as often as needed to see what I discribe.

At the 6 second mark , Hidden Scroll is on the verge of being squeezed back to last. Freeze the replay at 6 seconds and you will see what I mean. Now look at all the riders hands. Rosario's are in his lap. Now freeze at 8 seconds. The reins are slack and his hands are still back. I don't know if he maybe chirped to the horse to promote more speed or not but I am sure he could feel the natural speed from his mount and the tenseness the riders can feel when the horse is not relaxed. There is nothing I saw on the video. That is a question a trainer would ask the rider after the race.
At 10 seconds watch Rosario's right elbow move inward twice. That is him talking to the horse through the bit. He now knows he is moving fast enough to be in good outside position into the turn and is trying to get his mount to find a stride and a mental as well as physical comfort level to get the distance. He is doing everything he can do . All he can do now is hope for relax and understanding from a green colt at this point.

This is EXACTLY what I spoke about in post 3272 just above this one in regards to unseasoned colts trying 2 turns for the first time with only a sprint under their belt and in this horses case not much time to learn.

Let me say this before we go any further. At no time IMO did Gladiator King do anything to Hidden Scroll other than be entered. The only duel or anxiousness I saw was all between Hidden Scrolls ears. I do not feel that what you said twitter was saying had any merit whatsoever. With no disrespect to all that commented negatively about the ride, there level of watching all that transpires is just lacking somewhat IMO. After all , he is by Hard Spun who went 44 flat in the Kings Bishop with his mouth open ( easily) and drew off to win going 7/8ths . He is not made to take back far at all. But hey, maybe I am wrong. I don't mean to judge. At least not harshly.

Ok, back to the race.

If you watch the race between 23 and 28 seconds, Hidden Scrolls ears are going back and forth between forward and back one at a time. The horse is basically saying to himself, " What the hell is this".
More evidence that the struggle is internal.
IMO both he and the Rosario already know that the horse inside of him is no challenge whatsoever.

By 38 seconds, the already hopelessly beaten Gladiator King tries to move up because his rider sees Hidden Scroll has finally hit relax ( only somewhat though because of inexperience but to the best of Hidden Scrolls current ability to do so. ).
It's a shame that Gladiator King's rider did that but he is being paid to try his best so it was the only choice he had being as he was pinned inside with his right eye covered up and overmatched.

That pushed Hidden Scrolls ears back for 6 more seconds showing more burned energy . That 6 seconds was all Hidden Scroll not yet understanding relax yet. IMO Rosario could have done nothing to prevent that 6 seconds of burned energy.

( As a side note, watch the rider of Gladiator King between 59 and 1:00 look over at the rider on the 8 horse. It's quick but my guess is he said something like I'm done or got get him or something like that. He knows he is toast and that stuff happens all the time. )

At 1:09 the rider on the 8 horse moves his hands to signal his mount that it is time to go. The don't see it, they feel it in the bit and up there neck. To that point the horse had advanced on his own. Without urging. Note that Hidden Scrolls jock has his hands in his lap and the reins slack trying as hard as he can to keep his mount as calm as possible and preserve energy.
At 1:17 , the 8 horse is put to a full drive while Hidden Scroll is still not asked for a final kick. At 1.:26 Rosario shoots his last pre whip bullet and tries to steal off. Hopeful for a burst, Hidden Scroll gives him one, but it is not enough.

Rosario draws the stick left handed ( God I love that ! Reminds me of Larry Saumell the jock in my avatar.) and taps him at 1:41 then gathers the bit and puts it in the back of Hidden Scrolls mouth at 1:43 hopeful the horse has enough to grab the bit one more time. You can see this by watching Rosario's hands and reins swing outward, and then back together , and then hits him again at 1:46 to try and preserve 2nd place, switches sticks to his right hand at 1:49 for one last push to try and preserve 3rd but only shows the stick to the horse which I find to be a brilliant decision. The horse had given everything he had to give. There was nothing hitting him would have brought out.
The horse gave all he had. He was real tired as evidenced by him switching back to his left lead shortly after the finish line and well before the clubhouse turn.

I leave that replay by being impressed by two things. Hidden Scroll ran IMO as well as a horse in his position could have with the circumstances he had to overcome including breaking a step slow which started all of this off.
I am really impressed by the professionalism of Joel Rosario. And while one race does not make a full opinion but from what I saw here , he seems to be an exceptional rider. It took a top rider to do what he did off that race alone. Color me impressed !

I hope all this helps and I hope some of you take the time to see what I described.
If you can see some or all of what I described , you will have the ability to see more than 99% of the fans that watch races. That has to help in the long run.
As for how often a rider rides like Gladiator kings rider off and on, he was 100-1 . Probably the only one that really wanted to.
Please feel free to follow up and thanks for the question.
I learned that Hidden Scroll has a big upside if he can learn to relax. I will be surprised if he doesn't.

Sorry. I tried to tie them together for ease of reading. Failed. I suck .

[str]

Hey STR: As you noted there have been quite a few equine fatalities at SA in last couple of months. I believe about 20. What is your opionion of synthetic tracks? Are they safer than conventional? THx.

They cancelled indefinitely .

No racing this weekend which is incredible.

That track is a mess.

More on your question tomorrow Easy.

[str]

Hey STR: As you noted there have been quite a few equine fatalities at SA in last couple of months. I believe about 20. What is your opionion of synthetic tracks? Are they safer than conventional? THx.

I do remember way back that Santa Anita had a terrible run of fatalities during the winter. I am pretty sure it was an El Nino year meaning it was wetter than normal during the winter. I also remember , I think, that they never used to seal the track like the east coast tracks do but instead left it harrowed. That had the track muddy for several days before it dried out instead of maybe muddy only one day or two.
With short fields a major problem,they have sealed it this year I am pretty sure to keep the scratches down I presume. It seems as though that might be a big part of the problem.

Why? Well, having never raced there I cannot fully explain but instead theorize. I do know that the soil content stinks as far as growing hay, etc. It is no where near what it is on the east coast and probably middle america as well. So my assumption is, that when they float or seal the track, it does not stay together and compact like most tracks do, thus creating unevenness on top of the surface. I'm not sure what else it could be.
The stuff about drugs and medication is pure nonsense. Don't even consider that Easy. I'm pretty sure it is the dirt content and how it reacts to being compacted. I know they checked the base and said it was intact.
Apparently they have rehired the track super that has been there for decades and recently left. That guy has forgotten more about that surface than most know, including me, so let's see what he has to say about it.
Either way, it is a helluva spot to be in for triple crown horses planning on running this weekend. The key to running somewhere else is did they nominate? That would have taken place a month or two ago at least. So if they are not nominated, they can't run.

I feel really sorry for those that have lost horses these last several weeks. It is most likely due to weather and what a terrible feeling it is to send a horse out to train and have them die. Been there, done that. It's awful. And especially so for Ron McAnally who has to be pushing upper 80's or close to 90 years old. Old people just don't get over that . It's always a hard thing to live through but especially tough on the older folks. He is a great guy. I hope he's going to be OK.

As for synthetic tracks, I never raced on them so my knowledge is limited but didn't Santa Anita have that for a few years with terrible results when it was wet? I thought so but might be wrong.
Because I don't know much about them, what I will say is uneducated except from what I observed after I was gone. I saw that not all horses ran well on it. That tells me that some of the horses did not fully trust what they felt underneath them. I don't care for that at all. It would be ok if a few didn't, just like an off track, but it seemed much more than a few so for that reason alone, I never cared for it.

I do not know the statistics about casualty %'s of dirt vs. syn. but those stats, no matter how they are used can be misleading and unfortunately, most people misuse the numbers to prop up their own opinions or stances. Personally, I would not consider anyone's opinion, either way, unless they were a jockey, exercise rider, groom or a trainer with no axe to grind either way. I would want to hear from as many people as possible, but filtering out biased opinions would be tough. I guess what I am trying to say in a kind way is if everybody would just tell the friggin truth and leave their agendas behind, racing might get something accomplished. But most people have an angle and it's almost always about money. So pro or con, good luck sifting through the bullcrap to get to the truth. It seems harder and harder every year to find that simple element of truth no matter what the topic. Agenda/money first, honestly and what's decent and right second. What a shame. Honestly, that kind of stuff makes me sick.
Sorry to rant but it really does piss me off.

Take care Easy.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for the Take STR. Good post. I know Del Mar had the poly at one time, not sure about SA. Anyway let's hope the powers that be can fix this issue soon. What a shame for all these horses to be cut down.

[str]

so what happens to the horses that don't make the grade.. are they sold privately or given to another trainer?

Probably more often than not, they are given to another trainer. But with very expensive fillies, maybe just break their maiden where they can, like a secondary track instead of Belmont or whatever and stop right there. That way the book reads a winner in 1 start or just winner but does not designate where the horse won. I've seen them run at CharlesTown in MSW just to get the win and then they stop. Just depends on the horses ability or lack thereof.

[Louisvillekid1]

Great reads per usual

Love this thread

[str]

hey str... thought you'd like this, from yesterday's paulick report



https://www.paulickreport.com/news/r...by-ponying-up/

Thanks again for this article JBEX.

I do remember all the growing pains within the job that most do not see. It is actually a terrible business model, as others spoke to, but it's the way it is.
Probably the biggest breakthrough for me financially was after roughly 8 or 10 years of picking up a new owner with say 1 or 2 horses, then showing a lose from purely per diem rates and not knowing why, I figured out the ratio of pickups that kept me in the best spot to have the per diem pay the way or very close to it so as not to dig into the 10% across the board money much if any. Once I did it, it would have years that it was actually more like 15 or 20% in profits.
No trainer that I ever spoke to had used a system like this and when I mentioned it to a few of my friends , I do not think one of them showed enough interest to find out about it. Honestly, i'm not sure why, but I will say that trainers, as a whole, are probably as bad a group of pure business men and women as I have ever seen. And they don't seem to care. They just roll on and try and win races and whatever they have they have. I actually could not believe it when they dismissed what I was saying so I stopped talking about it. But, I absolutely practiced it from that point forward. It had to do with adding an amount of horses that went in line with hiring more help. If you add one or two horses and need a groom and another hot walker or exercise rider, that will be a problem with the payroll to horse ratio. So when I had an owner call me and say they wanted to give a one horse I would tell them that I needed to wait a month or two before I could get the stall. That was not really the reason but no owner wanted to hear about my finances and ratios. They didn't care. So I would put them off until I could claim a couple or pick up another owner with one or two so as to have all those new horses come in within a week or two of one another. That allowed me to get more help and keep the ratio constant or very close to it. It was something like 3.6 horses or something like that per double hire, that being a groom or exercise rider and a hot walker. Not all three. I think it had to double that to hire all three and one more of each. I can't remember exactly, Lol, but I had it down to the penny.
It was purely business math but was very important to me once I figured it out. Nobody wanted to win any more than I did but I was not going to work and lose money doing so although in the beginning I would have paid someone to be their trainer. Oh the excitement of starting a new business. But as we all know, you don't stay in business very long if you don't bring in more than you spend. Thankfully, when I left the game, I was in a good enough shape financially to take my time and move on. And yes, the month I left was a windfall of money because I collected all monies and did not have to pay out up front for the next month.

I guess it was all a part of growing up and I have to assume that plenty of trainers do something along those lines today but in the 80's I knew of no trainer that did although I can all but guarantee you King Leatherbury knew. He trained like a pure business and I went along with others early on laughing at that sort of thought process only to come around to it 10 years later. Seems to me that King had the last laugh. Guy was blade sharpe in a game that very few were when it came to finance.

Thanks again JBEX and let me know if anything mentioned in the article you or anyone might want more info on.

[str]

Great reads per usual

Love this thread

Thanks Kid !

Always a pleasure to hear from you.