Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

hey str

hambone (guess i can call him that too lol) has a 2yo first time starter in R2 at laurel today.. he's the breeder and owner also it's a mcl 25k @ 6f..been working him steady since mid July and the last 5 works (except 1 @ 6f) are all 5f..looks like he's shooting for a route in start #2 if I remember correctly.. interesting thing is this pedigree is heavily sprint oriented just going by sire and dam sire.. maybe the fact that next start could be a 1 turn mile mitigates that to some degree.. anyway thought you'd find it interesting

you ever heard of the training track Ell ? that's where he had his first 5 works prior the laurel ones

Going to answer this one first.

It's not to say that Hammy won't win with a sprinter that he trains like that but... by training like that be it him, me or anyone, they are not focusing on speed , they are focusing on stamina. You do not need to to breeze 3/4's to run 3/4's first time out. So what it leads you to, which will be right many more times than wrong, is that the horse is showing signs of not having a quick turn of foot and will need that stamina to finish up and make up ground or... that the horse is prepping to go longer. Often times 7/8ths will be enough as the first 1/4 of that race is typical 3/5's or more slower ( rule of thumb) than a 3/4's race in Maryland in Maiden claimers. That's 3 lengths or more closer early and if they can finish, they are usually right there in the end.

ELL is Ellory Training track which is in South Carolina which is where his brother Franklin has been for decades.

[str]

would think king's swan had to be one of his big ones..that was a war horse for sure..if I remember correctly (looking
it up's too easy) he could do it all short,long,turf (not sure)at very high levels and raced till an advanced age ..8 ?

This is his most productive claim money wise and it carved his name into the NY racing community when he went there from Maryland to train. But because this was well after I had left, I know very little about the horse other than what we all see.
Pretty sure you are right on all the distances, surfaces, and age.
Dickie had done this before to a lesser scale, but not much lesser when he was in Md.
That will be on the next post.

[JBEX]

This is his most productive claim money wise and it carved his name into the NY racing community when he went there from Maryland to train. But because this was well after I had left, I know very little about the horse other than what we all see.
Pretty sure you are right on all the distances, surfaces, and age.
Dickie had done this before to a lesser scale, but not much lesser when he was in Md.
That will be on the next post.

ok str thx..look forward to hearing about it..i'll keep an eye out for "perfect heir" (his horse) ...not as a must play but just to follow the path..seems lately for whatever reason I don't get notified when I enter them into the stable but i'll try it again

[str]

hey str



have a hunch this may have been covered at some point and if it has no need to explain it again..if you had to pick your favorite claim during your training career who would it be and why..price,what you did to correct him (or her) and how much approximately did he win and anything else pertinent..if it's tough to pick the best one a top 3 will do..and while you were working under dick dutrow or before what do you think one of the best claims he ever made was in your opinion

now that I think about it I believe your avatar might be it (for you) if I remember correctly

Q. .and while you were working under dick dutrow or before what do you think one of the best claims he ever made was in your opinion

A. He made a lot of really good claims during my years there but the one that stands out in my mind was a horse he claimed before I started there. His name was Lucky Lord. Dickie claimed him in late 1970. I didn't start until the fall of 1972. By then, Luck had become the king of the barn, a position he never relinquished. If you rubbed Luck you were the head groom, the best he had. Everybody, myself included, kept tabs on Lucks stall and how the groom went about his business.
It was a helluva position and one I never knew existed until I started working there. And everybody took it seriously. No way an apprentice blacksmith or a rookie vet touched Luck.

Bud Delp, an arch rival of Dickie's had the same kind of thing at his barn with a similar type horse (years before Spectacular Bid). I suppose Big John Tammaro and King Leatherbury did as well now that I think about it. Those four were dubbed the big 4 back then.

Dickie took Luck from an in and out ordinary claimer, to a model of consistency.
Dickie ran him 36 times , the last being March 29th, 1975. his record was 36 starts with 16 wins 7 seconds 8 thirds and 2 fourths with 2 off the board and one "Did Not Finish".
Back then, 36 starts in 5 years was really low. By today's standards that would probably be about 3 or 4 starts a year.
He took Luck from a miler or longer and made him a sprinter that went up to 7/8ths.

Luck was always in the 1st stall closest to the tack room. He was not really quite good enough to be a stakes horse but he ran in allowance races and high claimers like 25 and 35K races. Keep in mind that 25k and 35k in 1970 was quite a bit of money.

Dickie connected with this horse in ways I did not understand until years later. He knew every subtlety needed to make the right calls on when to run and when to pass races. In hindsight, the job he did with Luck, was incredible. Luck had really bad feet from foundering when he was young. He was a really nervous type horse that kept him from being his best. Dickie figured that out and got him a goat to live with. Boy did that make a difference. Those two were attached at the hip.

Of the 2 off the board races Luck ran, one was in the first few starts after Dickie claimed him. The other was a few years later . In that race, Luck was stepped on leaving the gate in a turf race at Monmouth Park and had a piece of his foot and back quarter area sliced off. It took 3 months to grow back and 2-3 more to race again. Other than that, he was the picture of consistency.
He was ridden by some big name riders such as Bill Hartack, Sandy Hawley, Chris McCarron, Vince Braccialle, Craig Perret, and others.

I had the honor of being Lucks groom from mid 1974 through his last race. It's funny what a horse can do to someone's life. All of the sudden, those that worked for Dickie that were either passed over as a candidate to be his groom or were new to the stable were all watching Me !
That title is what propelled me forward in the racing game. It opened my eyes and allowed me to see things that were always right in front of me but I had never seen. It truly changed my life.

I loved rubbing Lucky Lord. But unfortunately, it did not last as long as I thought it might. On March 29th 1975, the day before Easter Sunday, Luck hurt himself in a race at Pimlico. He broke his shoulder at the 3/8ths pole throwing Chris McCarron hard on the track. Chris hurt his shoulder I'm pretty sure. ( Sorry I don't remember more than that CJ). Luck never went down. He just stood calmly. I ran from the finish line to the 5/16ths pole to get him. Put his halter and shank on him and we got a van ride back to the barn. When we arrived, my dear friend Dr. Stewart was waiting for us. Doc was as good as there was and after looking at Luck, he told us of the potential problem. There was no way to know for sure as that is not something easily X rayed. And time was of the essence. The decision was made that nobody wanted to hear. To say it was tough is a gross understatement. I think we were all in shock to some extent. I know I was. Afterwards, Dr. Stewart was indeed correct with his diagnosis. There was nothing anyone could have possibly done to save Luck.

I remember people from all over the track coming by the barn to see if Luck was OK. It was surreal. Even our feed man came by. This horse meant that much to so many. He was put down in his stall, 1st stall next to the tack room. That was very uncommon but so was this horse. I told Dickie I wanted to bury Luck on a farm my family had just purchased in Howard County Md. , about 45 minutes away. Dickie said OK, so that was the plan.
The next day, Easter Sunday, every employee Dickie had showed up to help load Luck on a truck to go to the farm. People from other barns came as well as this was very difficult to do with a thousand pound animal. In hindsight, I was blown away by the kindness, passion, and caring that others from all over the place had shown. But that IS the epitome of the people that work on the backside.

My father, brother and a friend of his helped me dig a grave by hand for Luck. It was the least I could have done for a horse that gave me more than I could have ever expected.

I will try and attach a picture after I post this. I don't want to lose the post again. Already messed it up once.
The picture is of Lucky Lords portrait I had painted that hangs in my office along with his saddle towel he wore and the program page from his last race. His halter with his name inscribed in brass and his own shank rolled up are currently put away while I remodel my house somewhat. Once that is finished I will try and post a picture of that along with the next horse I will tell you about that was another of Dickie's best claims he ever made in Md.

[JBEX]

Q. .and while you were working under dick dutrow or before what do you think one of the best claims he ever made was in your opinion

A. He made a lot of really good claims during my years there but the one that stands out in my mind was a horse he claimed before I started there. His name was Lucky Lord. Dickie claimed him in late 1970. I didn't start until the fall of 1972. By then, Luck had become the king of the barn, a position he never relinquished. If you rubbed Luck you were the head groom, the best he had. Everybody, myself included, kept tabs on Lucks stall and how the groom went about his business.
It was a helluva position and one I never knew existed until I started working there. And everybody took it seriously. No way an apprentice blacksmith or a rookie vet touched Luck.

Bud Delp, an arch rival of Dickie's had the same kind of thing at his barn with a similar type horse (years before Spectacular Bid). I suppose Big John Tammaro and King Leatherbury did as well now that I think about it. Those four were dubbed the big 4 back then.

Dickie took Luck from an in and out ordinary claimer, to a model of consistency.
Dickie ran him 36 times , the last being March 29th, 1975. his record was 36 starts with 16 wins 7 seconds 8 thirds and 2 fourths with 2 off the board and one "Did Not Finish".
Back then, 36 starts in 5 years was really low. By today's standards that would probably be about 3 or 4 starts a year.
He took Luck from a miler or longer and made him a sprinter that went up to 7/8ths.

Luck was always in the 1st stall closest to the tack room. He was not really quite good enough to be a stakes horse but he ran in allowance races and high claimers like 25 and 35K races. Keep in mind that 25k and 35k in 1970 was quite a bit of money.

Dickie connected with this horse in ways I did not understand until years later. He knew every subtlety needed to make the right calls on when to run and when to pass races. In hindsight, the job he did with Luck, was incredible. Luck had really bad feet from foundering when he was young. He was a really nervous type horse that kept him from being his best. Dickie figured that out and got him a goat to live with. Boy did that make a difference. Those two were attached at the hip.

Of the 2 off the board races Luck ran, one was in the first few starts after Dickie claimed him. The other was a few years later . In that race, Luck was stepped on leaving the gate in a turf race at Monmouth Park and had a piece of his foot and back quarter area sliced off. It took 3 months to grow back and 2-3 more to race again. Other than that, he was the picture of consistency.
He was ridden by some big name riders such as Bill Hartack, Sandy Hawley, Chris McCarron, Vince Braccialle, Craig Perret, and others.

I had the honor of being Lucks groom from mid 1974 through his last race. It's funny what a horse can do to someone's life. All of the sudden, those that worked for Dickie that were either passed over as a candidate to be his groom or were new to the stable were all watching Me !
That title is what propelled me forward in the racing game. It opened my eyes and allowed me to see things that were always right in front of me but I had never seen. It truly changed my life.

I loved rubbing Lucky Lord. But unfortunately, it did not last as long as I thought it might. On March 29th 1975, the day before Easter Sunday, Luck hurt himself in a race at Pimlico. He broke his shoulder at the 3/8ths pole throwing Chris McCarron hard on the track. Chris hurt his shoulder I'm pretty sure. ( Sorry I don't remember more than that CJ). Luck never went down. He just stood calmly. I ran from the finish line to the 5/16ths pole to get him. Put his halter and shank on him and we got a van ride back to the barn. When we arrived, my dear friend Dr. Stewart was waiting for us. Doc was as good as there was and after looking at Luck, he told us of the potential problem. There was no way to know for sure as that is not something easily X rayed. And time was of the essence. The decision was made that nobody wanted to hear. To say it was tough is a gross understatement. I think we were all in shock to some extent. I know I was. Afterwards, Dr. Stewart was indeed correct with his diagnosis. There was nothing anyone could have possibly done to save Luck.

I remember people from all over the track coming by the barn to see if Luck was OK. It was surreal. Even our feed man came by. This horse meant that much to so many. He was put down in his stall, 1st stall next to the tack room. That was very uncommon but so was this horse. I told Dickie I wanted to bury Luck on a farm my family had just purchased in Howard County Md. , about 45 minutes away. Dickie said OK, so that was the plan.
The next day, Easter Sunday, every employee Dickie had showed up to help load Luck on a truck to go to the farm. People from other barns came as well as this was very difficult to do with a thousand pound animal. In hindsight, I was blown away by the kindness, passion, and caring that others from all over the place had shown. But that IS the epitome of the people that work on the backside.

My father, brother and a friend of his helped me dig a grave by hand for Luck. It was the least I could have done for a horse that gave me more than I could have ever expected.

I will try and attach a picture after I post this. I don't want to lose the post again. Already messed it up once.
The picture is of Lucky Lords portrait I had painted that hangs in my office along with his saddle towel he wore and the program page from his last race. His halter with his name inscribed in brass and his own shank rolled up are currently put away while I remodel my house somewhat. Once that is finished I will try and post a picture of that along with the next horse I will tell you about that was another of Dickie's best claims he ever made in Md.

wow great stuff str.. can see how that would be a great inspiration and learning experience early on in your career.. he obviously thought highly of you to let you be his main caretaker (besides him obviously)
I looked him up on equibase and saw how often he raced before dick claimed him..40-8-7-10 from 1969 - 70 which isn't horrible overall.. then 1971-1972 he was 19-11-4-3.. WOW !! then 1973 he went 9-3-3-1!!.. .. obviously dick figured him out and part of that was less racing. I'm aware not from personal experience (a spry 55 lol) but from reading that back then horses ran a lot more often so as you said that was a very light schedule.. as you said some really big names climbed aboard to ride not surprisingly


can't imagine the heartbreak when he had to be put down.. that had to be a tough time and cool that he wound up being buried on your parents farm.. great story and look forward to the next one.. thanks



thought of this afterwards.. do you think dick might have foreseen before the claim that a distance switch from routes to sprints might help the horse?.. do you think in general that might be one of the things a new trainer might have in mind when making a claim (other way also sprint-route) ?

[str]

wow great stuff str.. can see how that would be a great inspiration and learning experience early on in your career.. he obviously thought highly of you to let you be his main caretaker (besides him obviously)
I looked him up on equibase and saw how often he raced before dick claimed him..40-8-7-10 from 1969 - 70 which isn't horrible overall.. then 1971-1972 he was 19-11-4-3.. WOW !! then 1973 he went 9-3-3-1!!.. .. obviously dick figured him out and part of that was less racing. I'm aware not from personal experience (a spry 55 lol) but from reading that back then horses ran a lot more often so as you said that was a very light schedule.. as you said some really big names climbed aboard to ride not surprisingly


can't imagine the heartbreak when he had to be put down.. that had to be a tough time and cool that he wound up being buried on your parents farm.. great story and look forward to the next one.. thanks



thought of this afterwards.. do you think dick might have foreseen before the claim that a distance switch from routes to sprints might help the horse?.. do you think in general that might be one of the things a new trainer might have in mind when making a claim (other way also sprint-route) ?

Q. thought of this afterwards.. do you think dick might have foreseen before the claim that a distance switch from routes to sprints might help the horse?.. do you think in general that might be one of the things a new trainer might have in mind when making a claim (other way also sprint-route) ?

A. I claim can be thought of as needing a change of distance prior to being claimed but you never know for sure until you have them and really start to get the feel for them. There is a lot to learn in the morning from their mannerisms and likes and dislikes as well as their eating patterns and a bunch of little things. A veteran exercise rider or jockey can feel their breathing patterns as well and get an overall feel as to if the horse would like a distance change either stretching out or turning back. And sometimes although the horse has given no real indicators one way or another, you just try it. A veteran rider will usually get a good read on them during the running of the race and if they run well, it's right there for all to see.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Happy Turkey Day STR. Have you given any thought to playing some tournaments like those found on Horse tourneys? Would be intersting to see how you would fare.

Guaranteed Pool Style

FEATURED (SAT) - Up to $30,000 ($17.5k GUARANTEED) *PICK & PRAY* TBD

$260

2 of 133 Close Time TBD

[str]

Happy Turkey Day STR. Have you given any thought to playing some tournaments like those found on Horse tourneys? Would be intersting to see how you would fare.

Guaranteed Pool Style

FEATURED (SAT) - Up to $30,000 ($17.5k GUARANTEED) *PICK & PRAY* TBD

$260

2 of 133 Close Time TBD

I have thought about it some. When I try it you will be the 1st to know as I will lean on you to walk me through the procedure. Maybe we can split some. I'll need all the help I can get.

Thanks Easy.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone at SBR.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Sounds good STR. Think you would have some success and possibly win some large sums. Hit me back whenever you decide to move forward.

[JBEX]

hey str

happy thanksgiving to you and you're family

think i've asked you a similar question in the past but it's fairly simple and straightforward so figured i'd get a refresher..typical situation a horse runs his first 2 races in msw sprints..he's within 2 lengths of the lead in both races and now drops 1 or 2 levels into mcl..he's able to get a 1-2 length lead at the quarter going fairly easy..past the 3/8 th's pole he's challenged but able to resist and open up a length or two from the pursuer..besides the easier pace do you think the horse feels a sense of bravado or confidence being able to do this at that point of the race ?

[str]

hey str

happy thanksgiving to you and you're family

think i've asked you a similar question in the past but it's fairly simple and straightforward so figured i'd get a refresher..typical situation a horse runs his first 2 races in msw sprints..he's within 2 lengths of the lead in both races and now drops 1 or 2 levels into mcl..he's able to get a 1-2 length lead at the quarter going fairly easy..past the 3/8 th's pole he's challenged but able to resist and open up a length or two from the pursuer..besides the easier pace do you think the horse feels a sense of bravado or confidence being able to do this at that point of the race ?

Q. besides the easier pace do you think the horse feels a sense of bravado or confidence being able to do this at that point of the race ?

A. No question about it JBEX. Having been bred to compete, the vast majority of horses when finding success, will improve mentally from that. If that success sticks around, their interest and will to win shows up routinely. Add confidence on top of that and you have a horse that goes to post expecting to win. Ready to kick some butt. You can see it in their eyes and body language.

You can clearly see it in the barn between races with many of these. They have a swagger or a style to what they do. A dominant, cocky attitude amongst other horses. And the inferior horses know it .

You have seen this in races where let's say a speed horse can run a 22 1/5th opening quarter against claimers and allowance types but is asked to run in Grade 2 or 3 sprints. The race goes 22 1/5th for the opening quarter and this same horse can't get closer early than midpack and is well done by the 3/8ths pole.

The coolest part of this is when you claim a horse and they do not show any of these traits and you put together a formula that allows them to feel like the king. The light bulb goes on.
Like people, some might barely display this but most show signs of it. And of course, just like us, come become pure cocksmen. I've seen it a thousand times.

Probably as rewarding a sight as a horse can display when back in the barn in the morning. And because of that, it used to put the onus on me to spot that horse correctly and allow them to flourish to the best of their ability.

[JBEX]

Q. besides the easier pace do you think the horse feels a sense of bravado or confidence being able to do this at that point of the race ?




A. No question about it JBEX. Having been bred to compete, the vast majority of horses when finding success, will improve mentally from that. If that success sticks around, their interest and will to win shows up routinely. Add confidence on top of that and you have a horse that goes to post expecting to win. Ready to kick some butt. You can see it in their eyes and body language.

You can clearly see it in the barn between races with many of these. They have a swagger or a style to what they do. A dominant, cocky attitude amongst other horses. And the inferior horses know it .

You have seen this in races where let's say a speed horse can run a 22 1/5th opening quarter against claimers and allowance types but is asked to run in Grade 2 or 3 sprints. The race goes 22 1/5th for the opening quarter and this same horse can't get closer early than midpack and is well done by the 3/8ths pole.

The coolest part of this is when you claim a horse and they do not show any of these traits and you put together a formula that allows them to feel like the king. The light bulb goes on.
Like people, some might barely display this but most show signs of it. And of course, just like us, come become pure cocksmen. I've seen it a thousand times.

Probably as rewarding a sight as a horse can display when back in the barn in the morning. And because of that, it used to put the onus on me to spot that horse correctly and allow them to flourish to the best of their ability.

i guess for the most part you are talking about making subtle changes like feed, routine, spacing or correcting physical issues (to a degree anyway) amongst many others I'm sure.. there's also the drop in class whether it be allowance to beaten claimers (you'd have to have the horse) or claim a horse vs open claimers who'll soon be eligible for beaten claimers


the above highlighted paragraph...i'm assuming you're talking same variant track surface and the horse is just intimidated by the better competition (horse senses it) and gives way?

[Thunderground]

Q. besides the easier pace do you think the horse feels a sense of bravado or confidence being able to do this at that point of the race ?

A. No question about it JBEX. Having been bred to compete, the vast majority of horses when finding success, will improve mentally from that. If that success sticks around, their interest and will to win shows up routinely. Add confidence on top of that and you have a horse that goes to post expecting to win. Ready to kick some butt. You can see it in their eyes and body language.

You can clearly see it in the barn between races with many of these. They have a swagger or a style to what they do. A dominant, cocky attitude amongst other horses. And the inferior horses know it .

You have seen this in races where let's say a speed horse can run a 22 1/5th opening quarter against claimers and allowance types but is asked to run in Grade 2 or 3 sprints. The race goes 22 1/5th for the opening quarter and this same horse can't get closer early than midpack and is well done by the 3/8ths pole.

The coolest part of this is when you claim a horse and they do not show any of these traits and you put together a formula that allows them to feel like the king. The light bulb goes on.
Like people, some might barely display this but most show signs of it. And of course, just like us, come become pure cocksmen. I've seen it a thousand times.

Probably as rewarding a sight as a horse can display when back in the barn in the morning. And because of that, it used to put the onus on me to spot that horse correctly and allow them to flourish to the best of their ability.

Very beautiful explanation. The art of bringing out the best in others, and the joy found in that. You're a good man, str. That's a formula of how to live a fulfilling life. Happy belated Thanksgiving.

[Yahchanan]

Is it true that straight win bets are financially better than exotics in the long run?

[str]

i guess for the most part you are talking about making subtle changes like feed, routine, spacing or correcting physical issues (to a degree anyway) amongst many others I'm sure.. there's also the drop in class whether it be allowance to beaten claimers (you'd have to have the horse) or claim a horse vs open claimers who'll soon be eligible for beaten claimers


the above highlighted paragraph...i'm assuming you're talking same variant track surface and the horse is just intimidated by the better competition (horse senses it) and gives way?

Yes. Assuming all things being equal .

[str]

Is it true that straight win bets are financially better than exotics in the long run?

Well, the takeout is the least of the two so from that perspective yes. But because the betting is parimutuel, when you feel that your game is above par, playing to a larger takeout can still be quite profitable. It is probably not a great place to start if you are new to the game but if you feel you can play to a higher takeout and win, then it has always been fine in my eyes.
Hope that helps and welcome to the horse racing forum.

[JBEX]

hey str

about a week ago harthebar had a winner at laurel that paid 19.60 win.. for reasons I can't explain I went to check the chart of the race and noticed the horse had run 3 days prior at aqueduct and finished 3rd.. kind of interesting circumstances don't you think? the aqueduct race was a "clm16k for 3yo only".. the laurel race was a starter optional claiming for 3yo's and up.. conditions started for clm $25k or lower AND n2L or up for a tag $25k AND the same n2L.. he qualified without having to be up for sale.. could he have been entered for both with the initial idea of running in one of them but decided to try both after a good effort in the aqueduct race.. or they just decided to ship to laurel without any thought of it prior to the aqueduct race??

[JBEX]

hey str

about a week ago harthebar had a winner at laurel that paid 19.60 win.. for reasons I can't explain I went to check the chart of the race and noticed the horse had run 3 days prior at aqueduct and finished 3rd.. kind of interesting circumstances don't you think? the aqueduct race was a "clm16k for 3yo only".. the laurel race was a starter optional claiming for 3yo's and up.. conditions started for clm $25k or lower AND n2L or up for a tag $25k AND the same n2L.. he qualified without having to be up for sale.. could he have been entered for both with the initial idea of running in one of them but decided to try both after a good effort in the aqueduct race.. or they just decided to ship to laurel without any thought of it prior to the aqueduct race??

while I have you're attention just curious what you thought of timoniun..did you have any success there over the course of your career.. I know it's a bullring track

[str]

hey str

about a week ago harthebar had a winner at laurel that paid 19.60 win.. for reasons I can't explain I went to check the chart of the race and noticed the horse had run 3 days prior at aqueduct and finished 3rd.. kind of interesting circumstances don't you think? the aqueduct race was a "clm16k for 3yo only".. the laurel race was a starter optional claiming for 3yo's and up.. conditions started for clm $25k or lower AND n2L or up for a tag $25k AND the same n2L.. he qualified without having to be up for sale.. could he have been entered for both with the initial idea of running in one of them but decided to try both after a good effort in the aqueduct race.. or they just decided to ship to laurel without any thought of it prior to the aqueduct race??

A claiming Three year old turning four was always a tough call for me. Typically, you can assume that a three year old claimer will drop about 30% in value when they turn four. Not always by any means but that is what 60-70% of them will do. Because trainers know this, you will typically see 3 year olds dropping in price from September on. That makes straight three year old races tougher and tougher as the year runs out.
So a 16k straight 3 year old race in NY in December probably equated to a 20-25k straight 3 year old race in July-August.
So the horse goes to Laurel which is typically several lengths slower and people see 16 k and assume it is actually a 16 k race. Usually not in December.
So think of it as a horse that went from at least a 20k open straight 3 year old claimer in NY and ran back in 3 days in a three and up 25k nw of two at Laurel.
Maybe check and see if the field quality is correct. Usually in December, it is.
Not positive of the 3 days but again, the clock is ticking and the horse can take all January off if needed. No hurry to run then.
This is an educated guess as it could have been a number of things but I would guess what I just spoke to. Having a middle priced claiming three year old in December only running once or twice is usually going to cost the owner money.
Hope that makes sense.

[str]

while I have you're attention just curious what you thought of timoniun..did you have any success there over the course of your career.. I know it's a bullring track

The spa!!!
The big T.
I won a lot there as the book was full of claimers and so was my barn.
King T dominated there and I was hell bent to win a training title and beat him one year.
Probably early eighties. The meet was 42 days back then not 10. By the end of the meet I was just about out of bullets. I ran them all I could.
The last day I am pretty sure I was one or two winners in front of King. I only had one horse in on the last day. He had something like 9 in 7 races. I was in the third or fourth race . He won one race before my race and he beat me in my race so we were tied. He then won the 5 th and the stake in the 8 th. Heck, he might have won one more. So he won 4 or 5 that day and blew me out. Unreal. He was soooo tough to beat. One of many reasons I have so much respect for him.
I think I wrote about that in here before. Maybe try searching backside slopes down hill or Grove and see if it comes up. If not, ask away. I know way more about the big T than I probably should. Lol.

[JBEX]

A claiming Three year old turning four was always a tough call for me. Typically, you can assume that a three year old claimer will drop about 30% in value when they turn four. Not always by any means but that is what 60-70% of them will do. Because trainers know this, you will typically see 3 year olds dropping in price from September on. That makes straight three year old races tougher and tougher as the year runs out.
So a 16k straight 3 year old race in NY in December probably equated to a 20-25k straight 3 year old race in July-August.
So the horse goes to Laurel which is typically several lengths slower and people see 16 k and assume it is actually a 16 k race. Usually not in December.
So think of it as a horse that went from at least a 20k open straight 3 year old claimer in NY and ran back in 3 days in a three and up 25k nw of two at Laurel.
Maybe check and see if the field quality is correct. Usually in December, it is.
Not positive of the 3 days but again, the clock is ticking and the horse can take all January off if needed. No hurry to run then.
This is an educated guess as it could have been a number of things but I would guess what I just spoke to. Having a middle priced claiming three year old in December only running once or twice is usually going to cost the owner money.
Hope that makes sense.

it does to me str.. seems like you would want to get that win vs 3yo only company while you can so that might explain the quick return.. can see based on what you said that the NY race might stack up well vs the laurel bunch that he had to face.. when you get this late in the year how strong can a n2L field of claimers be anyway..thanks str

[str]

Did anybody notice that the bomb price in the contest last week was a
Blinkers " on" mare. I choose the 5 who scratched at the gate but almost used the blks. On mare.
Shoulda, woulda, coulda.
What a game.

[str]

it does to me str.. seems like you would want to get that win vs 3yo only company while you can so that might explain the quick return.. can see based on what you said that the NY race might stack up well vs the laurel bunch that he had to face.. when you get this late in the year how strong can a n2L field of claimers be anyway..thanks str

Exactly. Class for class the horse was probably taking a healthy drop and paid 19.60. File that away for future use.

[JBEX]

Exactly. Class for class the horse was probably taking a healthy drop and paid 19.60. File that away for future use.

will do.. thanks again

[JBEX]

hey str

today they had a mile race at remington park for 2yo's that had a $400k purse..$38 horse won and he was a local who had only run at remington in all 3 of his lifetime starts..ran 4th by less than 2 lengths breaking from the rail in his sprint debut..broke his maiden at a mile vs specials in start 2..start 3 he wins a listed stakes for $100k..for some perspective the pars for a msw in at bel and sar is significantly faster than a listed stakes at remington which really is no surprise..so of course you had horses coming in from the major venues and a few locals who'd run here at least once..this one had the best resume (albeit short)
of those imo..do you think factoring in these are 2yo's a horse having 2 wins over the track has a little bit of a mental edge having had success running at the host track that may make up for the fact he's a bit slower than the others ? also no shipping and comfortable with his routine and surroundings..asmussen had 5 horses in the race (11 in the field) and he was one of them..2nd place finisher was one of his also

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: The #5 (Long Range Toddy) that JBEX is referring to showed a progression on speed figures all 3 liefetime starts. 69/76/88. Not sure how much credenece you put into speed figures, but is that something that would catch your eye? The par for the race was a 93. Thx in advance.

[Easy-Rider 66]

First of all , do remember that I was a professional trainer and not a professional gambler but with that said, let me try to help.
You stated that you look at speed figures first. I rarely if ever look at them at all.
To get a full explanation of that , go to a thread from 4/25/11 named "Assigning numbers when gauging a horses performance". Follow all of my comments and that should answer that.
Performed well lately was next. Will get to that in a minute.
Workouts were next. I will cut and paste from a PM that someone sent me as to why the average handicapper should not pay ANY attention to them.( My opinion).
Best jockeys: Let's start there. Instead of trying to bet on the best jockeys I might suggest finding the jockeys that you do not want to bet on. So start off that way.
It is great to play a race with the leading rider but chances are you are playing a horse that has less betting value than he/she should because of that. Many riders have the ability to win so try and find the guys that hit consistently under 8 or 9% winners and ride there share of live horses and maybe avoid them if possible . Can not always blame the rider but every track has under rated and over rated riders. Also, some riders have a particular strength or weakness. That is, excellent turf rider or very good speed rider or good closing rider, always goes wide rider, etc. If the riders strength fits the horse you like , you might have an edge . If a very good speed rider is riding a dead closer, that is not so good. This is easier said than done but if you follow a certain track consistently, the information is there to be learned. Remember, knowledge is power. The game is pari mutual so yes the house takes it's cut but you are playing against the other players. Work to know more than they do.( Also, try to avoid the higher takeout pools.They vary from track to track so find a track that is not killing you . This information is always on the program or racing form, usually before the first race).
Horses that performed well lately also lead to favorites. Sometimes that is fine but everyone sees that.
So try this approach:
First of all, READ AND UNDERSTAND THE CONDITIONS of the race.This is so important ! Is it an open claimer , nw/2, nw/3, nw/ last 6 months. Condition allowance, starter handicap, etc. For more clarity, go to the racing secretary's office at your track and ask someone for a current condition book.They are free and probably sitting out for trainers to pick up. They come out every 2-3 weeks. This book will tell you what races are scheduled for days to come. You will start to understand how the races are written.
Once you have read the conditions , go through the race without throwing anyone out and get an overview . Then, go through a second time and try to split the race in to categories. Pure speed , position horses( lay 3rd-5th) and closers.
Now you have a sense of how the race might shape up. One pure speed and 7 closers has me liking the pure speed already and I am just getting started. ( Remember, pace makes the race. This years Derby was so slow for the first 3/4s that Dialed In had no chance to catch up. He actually ran quite well if you look at the charts and calculate his last 1/2 mile. A half in 46 and 3/4s in 1:10 and change or 1:11 and he is right there). Five pure speeds and I am liking the other 2 or 3 in all probability. Once you have done that, you can try to determine by post position the probable position of each horse. Knowing that a horse needs to be at least a length and a half faster if he is outside to be able to drop over in front of an inside speed horse allows you to project the positions on the track each might be in when dealing with the turns.
With the race now set up, look at each horses ability . Keep in mind however that the horse that went wire to wire last time might be a monster or might have benefited from a race that was void of any other speed, thus making him look better than he actually was. Your "performed well lately" comment needs more insight to be sure that there was not a reason other than the horses raw ability that led to his good performance. This is why following the same track is beneficial as compared to trying to chase multiple tracks.
When you have the race projected out , it should become clearer as to who might get a good or bad trip. That , along with a horses ability will allow you to start taking stands against some horses.
So before we get any more technical , I would like you to try that approach. Give it some time and see if that does not help you find solid plays. If anything , it will allow you to feel as though you have a basic understanding of what the jocks and trainers are trying to accomplish.
Lastly, WATCH THE REPLAYS!. There is much to learn from them . I will also post a PM about that when I find it.
Hope that helps get you started.

One more question STR: If you were handicapping on a regular basis today do you still feel the same way about speed figures? Also any thoughts on pace numbers as well? Thx again. This is from #3 post of the thread from 5/9/11

[str]

hey str

today they had a mile race at remington park for 2yo's that had a $400k purse..$38 horse won and he was a local who had only run at remington in all 3 of his lifetime starts..ran 4th by less than 2 lengths breaking from the rail in his sprint debut..broke his maiden at a mile vs specials in start 2..start 3 he wins a listed stakes for $100k..for some perspective the pars for a msw in at bel and sar is significantly faster than a listed stakes at remington which really is no surprise..so of course you had horses coming in from the major venues and a few locals who'd run here at least once..this one had the best resume (albeit short)
of those imo..do you think factoring in these are 2yo's a horse having 2 wins over the track has a little bit of a mental edge having had success running at the host track that may make up for the fact he's a bit slower than the others ? also no shipping and comfortable with his routine and surroundings..asmussen had 5 horses in the race (11 in the field) and he was one of them..2nd place finisher was one of his also

The horse knows the track and is very comfortable there. Maybe some of the others were not. Babies shipping a distance to run is always a bit more tricky than horses that are more used to it. But nowadays shipping is somewhat easier than back in the day. Most surfaces are slightly to very different. Don't know about Remington. But all in all, being the horses home base had to help .
Don't you think?

[str]

STR: The #5 (Long Range Toddy) that JBEX is referring to showed a progression on speed figures all 3 liefetime starts. 69/76/88. Not sure how much credenece you put into speed figures, but is that something that would catch your eye? The par for the race was a 93. Thx in advance.

Yes . It would catch my eye. And if the par was 93, according to his numbers, he showed he was probably capable of that.
I kind of makes it sound like I would have had him had I played the race, don't I ?
I don't mean to sound like that.
It's just that it always looks more logical after the race, right? The logic is indeed there but so was the stronger form of the ship ins probably.

I do remember seeing big name ship ins come to Md. to run against my horses way back when. And it's tough to see past the big name trainers,riders, big purses, and gaudy numbers next to their name. Looks real tough on paper and beforehand.
But, once you see them warming up and you don't see the form anymore, just the horse, it's not so bad. Unless of course, the horse warms up like a monster. Then...Gulp. Lol.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yes . It would catch my eye. And if the par was 93, according to his numbers, he showed he was probably capable of that.
I kind of makes it sound like I would have had him had I played the race, don't I ?
I don't mean to sound like that.
It's just that it always looks more logical after the race, right? The logic is indeed there but so was the stronger form of the ship ins probably.

I do remember seeing big name ship ins come to Md. to run against my horses way back when. And it's tough to see past the big name trainers,riders, big purses, and gaudy numbers next to their name. Looks real tough on paper and beforehand.
But, once you see them warming up and you don't see the form anymore, just the horse, it's not so bad. Unless of course, the horse warms up like a monster. Then...Gulp. Lol.

Thx for the take STR. That is one of the key angles I look for in capping. An ascending number on 2 to 3 figures. I find these horses tend to move forward next start.

[str]

One more question STR: If you were handicapping on a regular basis today do you still feel the same way about speed figures? Also any thoughts on pace numbers as well? Thx again. This is from #3 post of the thread from 5/9/11

I felt very strongly about this when I trained. But that ended in 2001. Ten years later I wrote that and now it's been 7 more.
I absolutely recognize that figures have come a long long way since I left the game. I know very little about all of today's figs but I do know they are waaay more accurate than what I saw years back. They take many more things into consideration.

That said, I suppose that I would look at certain aspects of them from certain sources. But I stand behind the fact that I would never look at the Beyers that the form has in it. But I also know I would use those I did look at as a tool only. I just can't see me playing regularly on horses solely because a figure said to.
The Timeform pace projections that I have seen , I do like. I think that Craig does a great job there. He's a former Md. guy so I guess I might be a bit partial. I do respect his work for sure.
Because I am of the opinion that every number is achieved for a reason, it is hard for me to solely lean on those numbers without knowing that reason. If I was there everyday, I would know the reason the vast majority of the time. So when you are no longer there, you know deep inside that you cannot be as good as you can be because you do not have as much info as you would have if you were. So I just try and let that go and give it a shot. Does that make sense?
Don't get me wrong, it's still fun to handicap. I have really enjoyed those two contests SBR has had. I know it is doubtful that I could win at this point but I try like hell to beat the bag. I actually watched most of the races both times.

[str]

Thx for the take STR. That is one of the key angles I look for in capping. An ascending number on 2 to 3 figures. I find these horses tend to move forward next start.

I like that. There is a reason for it for sure.

If you find that, see if this matches up with this angle.

You see the ascending figs and the 2 year old or older horse that has only started putting life together is now working faster and doing it easier than before. If you see that, it can only strengthen your opinion in my book. Alot !
This is the case when the light goes off and the horse is not only full of confidence but more importantly, the understanding of what all this stuff is all about. Was that the case here?
It doesn't have to be the case but when it is, it's a great find.

[JBEX]

The horse knows the track and is very comfortable there. Maybe some of the others were not. Babies shipping a distance to run is always a bit more tricky than horses that are more used to it. But nowadays shipping is somewhat easier than back in the day. Most surfaces are slightly to very different. Don't know about Remington. But all in all, being the horses home base had to help .
Don't you think?

yes I do..other positive for me was a homebred with an above avg pedigree for remington park..we've talked about
confidence from previous efforts so that might come into play also..he believes he's good and being a 2yo there's a lot of upside potential..recognize the breeder/owner and steve's been training his horses for a while..nice chunk of change to walk away with ..thanks str

[Easy-Rider 66]

I like that. There is a reason for it for sure.

If you find that, see if this matches up with this angle.

You see the ascending figs and the 2 year old or older horse that has only started putting life together is now working faster and doing it easier than before. If you see that, it can only strengthen your opinion in my book. Alot !
This is the case when the light goes off and the horse is not only full of confidence but more importantly, the understanding of what all this stuff is all about. Was that the case here?
It doesn't have to be the case but when it is, it's a great find.

OK Thx. Just checked the workouts for the #5 and he was working well. Makes sense.

[JBEX]

the locals get underbet in these situations and there's reasons for that including ny and ky races are much tougher..lots of times they are overmatched but you find one with some positives like a decent pedigree and trained by a top conditioner you will get rewarded nicely when they do win. . didn't have this horse but 20/20 hindsight there were some positives going in imo