Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

So if I understand this correctly the track needs to be harrowed much
more frequently in the cold weather so the dirt tdoesn't freeze. This means
the track will need to be graded (guessing these are different things) more often
to compensate for the track being harrowed more often?

Exactly. But... with 12:30PM post times, and horses training on the track each morning from 6:00- 10:00 AM, the window for grading is small. The only other alternative is after the last race but then if you harrow it all night after grading it,you pretty much undue anything you have done because the dirt trickles down the track towards the inside a little bit with each passing harrow. Also, grading it in the dark is another difficult maneuver that promotes human error.

Fluctuating temps that can bring rain also confuse the situation. You can not grade mud, so once it's wet, there is not much you can do but harrow it, float it( smooth it out to let the water come to the top and evaporate or run off), or roll it ( a row of wheels that packs the dirt). So you can see how sometimes with approaching wet weather, the track might need to be over graded, or graded when it might not really need it, because it won't be gradable for a few days after it gets wet.

These actions by the track superintendent can and do create favorable positions on the surface. He tries his best to keep it even, but sometimes it's just impossible.

Harrowing is the grooming of the track you see between races.

Grading the track is 1 or 2 road graders peeling off cushion and moving it back up the pitch of the track towards the crown , which is the highest point of the track about 3/4s of the way out from the inner rail towards the outer rail.

It really is harder than you might think.

Hope that helps explain it better.

[cutchemist42]

As someone who's been following Aqueduct this winter season, some days have been very rqail friendly. Also, really late belated wishes to you str in the new year. My horse handicapping has come a long way since you first answered questions for me months ago!

[str]

As someone who's been following Aqueduct this winter season, some days have been very rqail friendly. Also, really late belated wishes to you str in the new year. My horse handicapping has come a long way since you first answered questions for me months ago!

Thanks so much for your kind words.

I am glad to hear that you are improving.

Keep up the good work !

[str]

So if I understand this correctly the track needs to be harrowed much
more frequently in the cold weather so the dirt tdoesn't freeze. This means
the track will need to be graded (guessing these are different things) more often
to compensate for the track being harrowed more often?

I don't know if you or others wander back through this thread but I posted a very lengthy explanation about biases way back. For simplicity and better ( I hope ) clarity I will pull it back up for anyone to read if they care to and have not yet seen it.

[str]

Because you should always be looking for it, it can be tricky for a couple of races sometimes. What you can NOT do , is see they ran 1,2,3 and say " there it is". It is inside. Those might have been the 3 that figured to be there. If you look at the race and understand who is where in terms of what the entries have done and what is expected, then you have an idea of how the race is supposed to play out. From an earlier post, set the race up first in your mind, right? Three speeds three position and three closers for instance. When the race is over, you know already what kind of trips the field had. So, did the outside horse that was supposed to run well and laid 4th by himself in the garden spot behind a 3 horse duel, in perfect position , fire and run well or not? Did the solo inside speed that looked like it would stay if it was not pressed, get that easy early lead and stay? Did he quit for no reason? Where were these horses during the race?
These are the first questions you need to ask yourself. So, you should WATCH the replay! This is terribly important IMO. Then, watch the head on. This will show you the paths that the horses were in that might not be visible from the other angle.
The next thing to look for is if horses closed, where did they close from? The rail ? Way outside? Now this can be confusing if you are not paying attention , especially in longer races. Hear is why. Let's say a 1 1/16 mile race is run in 1:45 seconds. A horse runs up the rail to win. You think the rail is great. But... where did this horse run on the track for the 1:20 seconds before it turned for home? Was it 4 wide for more than 1/2 the race and then dropped over to the rail? If that is the case, why think that the rail is so great? The horse was outside wide more than it was on the rail. Same with a closer 4 wide through the lane. If he was outside the whole way, fine. Was it down on the fence for 1:20 and only got out for the last 1/4 of a mile? Depending on those answers, you know the rail is not souped up, or is, maybe it is deeper there and the outside is the better place too be or not. Of course , the horses individual trip and it's overall ability has plenty too do with this as well. Where the horse was for the majority of time is vitally important. If the horse was supposed to do what it did, the track was probably no help but if that is not the case, then perhaps the position on the track was the reason it ran so well, or so poorly.
The track is all graded at once. Not just the stretch or just the backside. All at once, or not at all. The only exception is the chute area.That is done separately. The main oval is always worked on at the same time. The graders go all the way around and move out at the end of each lap until they have reached the peak of the track surface. Known as the "Crown" of the track it is usually about 20 feet or so before the far outside fence .
Identifying a bias is sometimes easy and many times not. Also, there is nothing that says that a bias will stay all day if one exists, especially one that involves the rail. It can change. It will not change if the rail is dead and the outside is the place to be during the card in most cases but I have seen it happen as well. That is rare for it too change if the inside is deeper because there is no way to get that dirt redistributed evenly while the races are running. Grading a track usually take a couple of hours. Extra water from the water trucks can possibly do this though.
You should not feel that you must know the bias before you make a play. If you become consumed with finding a bias , it will warp your thinking and become a focal point . If one always existed, that might be fine. But they do not always exist, so you need to be aware in terms of looking for them, but not consumed by them. Be aware of there possible presence and watch for them. The race must be handicapped as if the track is even until proven during the card , that it is not.
Lets face it, if you see the first two races and the inside has won both, the closers had rail trips most or all the way and the favorites on the outside both ran poorly , it is pretty obvious what is going on. Same holds true for a ton of outside numbers running well all day. Chances are, it is better out there. The replays and the head on especially, will confirm this. Remember, it is not where the horses is at the wire but where it was for the whole race. Again, the 9 breaks and goes straight to the fence. Lays back saving ground, rallies up the rail and wins. If the 8 was four wide the whole way and finished second, and the exacta is 9-8, does that mean that the outside is necessarily good? Of course not, the 9 was inside the whole way.You need to figure it out. That particular scenario, might lead you to believe that the track is even and fair.
Too me, the best biases are the outside closers bias. That is because the public has a solid tendency to bet the inside as well as speed horses. You have heard about players favorite numbers to play. 1,2,5 or 2,3,5 or 3,5,7 but ever heard of someones favorite numbers being 8,9,10?, or 7,10,12? The best prices are usually towards the outside. Two even horses one having the one hole and one having the nine hole will most likely be bet somewhat unevenly by the public. If both would typically be 8-1 , the one horse might very well be but the nine probably will be more like 10 or 12-1.This is the public's tendencies as I have witnessed over the years. Not always, but typically IMO. Also, once a horse hits double digit odds, it is not uncommon to see there odds go from 12-1 to 18 -1 in the last minute or so.
Keeping a calender chart of biases is very important. This tool can bring you many winners. Writing down how the track played for each day and writing this next to the dates on the PPs is added info that most do not have. I used to do this for the whole card before I started looking at each race. This will enable you to better understand WHY a horse ran as well or as poorly as it did last time or 2 times ago. More info on YOUR racing form, in a betting pool where the opposition is the other players reading that same form = an edge( sometimes a huge one). All players have a dream of getting tomorrows newspaper today with all the results in it. Well, it's never quite that good but at a key time, it can be darn close.
Some of the bigger plays that you can catch can come from this. Throwing out favorites and confidently playing a 10-1 shot because of your private knowledge is not only self gratifying but it makes all the effort well worth it.
Grass races will also come with a bias but in most cases it is not inside outside as it is, speed or closers. Grass favors closers too begin with. It is much easier to close on turf than dirt. Why? The debris flying back at you is almost nil compared to dirt. Look at a jocks silks that was behind horses most of the way after a dirt race and then, after a turf race as they dismount. The difference in how clean or dirty the silks are is drastic. That debris is tough sometimes for a jock to deal with while riding. That's why they usually have 3-4 pair of goggles for each race. Watch a dirt race next time and watch for the closers jocks to pull down there goggles a couple of times when behind traffic usually starting around the 5/16 pole ( black and white stripped pole after the red and white 1/2 and before the green and white 3/8s pole going in to the far turn on a one mile track) in a 6 or 7 furlong race. Watch there hands only and you will see it. What people do not realize is that the horse does not have goggles and it is harder on them as well.(That sand flying back at them stings your face . Like being in a bit of a sand storm.) Blinkers are open for the dirt to fly into there eyes so for that, they do not help. Muddy tracks makes it harder still, to close . Many horses will do it, but sometimes a little more apprehensively than they might normally do it.That's not to say don't bet closers in the mud but these obstacles do exist. This is one reason why speed tends to want to hold better on an off track. When you see a jock go widest of all through the lane, avoiding mud or being out of clean goggles might be the reason why.
The length of the grass can also be a factor. Seeing that it was just mowed or unable to be mowed because it rained and might be too soft might be the difference between a speed favoring turf or not.There are many factors obviously, but trying to understand the surface and gaining the knowledge over time, beats the hell out of having no clue and not paying any attention, at least in my book.
Why do dirt biases exist: Because the tracks have a pitch to them. Some more than others. Look at the pitch of the track or tracks you play . The more the pitch, the more the dirt wants to go down hill towards the rail .Therefore, the more that dirt needs to be pushed back up the hill to keep it even.
In the summer months, the track can be harrowed for all the races and sealed or floated after the races and left alone all night. Under these circumstances, a track might only need to be graded once or twice a week.This is done with a road grader or two. Biases are not necessarily common in the summer time. Key times to look for these( although they can show up at any time) is the day before, the day of or the day after a major holiday like the 4th of July.Why? Because the maintenance crew might get a day off and therefore they don't have the man power necessary to grade the track at exactly the right moment. Or, there is a big race running on the 4th and they want the track perfect and faster than normal for that day. And because weather can play a factor, maybe they could not grade on time or had to grade earlier or whatever. Remember, you can not grade mud! Also, Saturdays when bigger races are running, opening days, closing days or first days if they only run 3-4 days a week. There are many reasons why a bias can be present. The important thing for you is to understand why they can exist and try to identify them as early as possible. Also, the track superintendent tries to stay on a schedule that best suits the track. That might mean that he wants to grade the track every Friday before a big weekend card and every Tuesday , a dark day. If weather or holidays disrupt that schedule, a bias can appear. His job is to have the track completely even and uniform at all times. Between human error and other factors that is damn near impossible 100% of the time.
In the colder months of the year, the track will need to be harrowed much more. Next time you are there, watch the teeth move the dirt ever so slightly down the pitch towards the rail with each pass. The movement is very small but multiply the 1/2 inch movement times harrowing the track every race and most of the night because the surface will freeze if they do not, and that is quite a lot of dirt collecting at the rail. The dirt will collect at the rail and the surface will become uneven in depth. It will need to be graded back up so as to be consistent all the way across. When it becomes deeper inside or outside, you have a bias. If I were allowed to race everyone here on SBR at the beach and I could run on the part of the beach that was wet and packed from the water at the edge of the shore line and everyone else had to run in the deep, loose, dry sand I would probably win but put us all on a fair surface and the result would be very different , I am sure. Would probably have to van me off after the race!
Lastly, you will need to give the track a grade for each day you observe. I used to use the following:
R+1, R+2,R+3. These would be the strength of bias for a good rail. A good rail would be for both speed and closers.The outside was NOT the place to be.Simply put, the best part of the track.R+1 = pretty solid advantage, R+2 very solid advantage, R+3 was an unbelievable advantage.
Out.-1, Out.-2, Out. -3 would be for the outside part of the track. This means that outside speed as well as outside closers would both be fine. This also meant that the rail was NOT the place to be.The outside was the best part of the track.
S+1,S+2,S+3 was when speed was dominate and it did not matter where you were on the track. Closers were struggling all day from all areas. Three horse duels were hanging tough all the way around( at varying degrees) and thus, defying typical logic.
Cl-1,Cl-2,Cl-3 were for a track that favored closers from anywhere on the track, both inside and outside.
Sometimes I would put R+2 1-6 because for whatever reason the track stopped favoring the inside from that point on. This needs full scrutiny after the fact in that, you must determine if the bias truly existed at all to begin with or the track stopped favoring a certain trend because it just changed. You will not be right every time with your grade so following how well a particular day did in the weeks to come will validate your assessment or not if you were in error.
Turf would usually be simply S. or Cl. Because the sample size is usually only a race or two each day, I was always careful not to give to much credit to any bias unless very sure of it.
Leaving after a bias filled card and not cashing in on that day might leave you feeling hollow in terms of the day but gaining knowledge that others do not have for future use is plenty valuable in itself. Because biases are a constant work in progress do not feel you must get it right every time. This is especially true when first starting out doing this.You will however get much better at this within six months or so.
Hopefully, I have explained this well enough for you guys to implement it. If not, let me know and I will try to clear up any further questions.
It is not easy to learn but if I did, you can.
Whew! That was long.

Here it is from 2+ years ago.

Hope it helps.

[cutchemist42]

Hey str, I was wondering if you've ever written about how a jockey controlsmanages a horse throughout a race? Thanks for the answer.

[str]

Hey str, I was wondering if you've ever written about how a jockey controlsmanages a horse throughout a race? Thanks for the answer.

I have written a lot about that within this thread. And because there are SO MANY variables that can go into any particular ride, I could write a full page and still not get you whatever it is for you, that would help you understand exactly what you are maybe looking for. So let me say this, and let me know with any follow ups if it and other answers I have posted are not enough.

Jocks have a plan when they get into the gate. Sometimes the race will unfold pretty much to script and that plan will be executed. But we all know that the second the gates open, everything can change and often does. So, the rider must try and put his or her mount in the best possible position they can, knowing the horses strengths and weaknesses. That seems simple enough but what is not simple is the jock has no control over what the other jocks are going to do. They also have no control over there mount if the horse they are riding does not respond when asked, not just to fully accelerate, but also to settle in, relax, move up just a bit early on while expending very little energy, etc. So, often enough, a particular rider will be forced to move early or later than they might have wanted to because of traffic or pressure they are getting from others as well as being inside going into a turn when every horse will basically slide inwards about 3 feet. Four across the track means the inside horse will need 9 feet of space between the outside horse and the rail or that inside horse will be slammed into the rail. That is why you see jocks check out of the inside path just before the turn comes up.
So in short, sometimes they can do what they want to and sometimes they are forced to do something based on the flow of the race.

Hope that helps. Let me know if it does not.

[cutchemist42]

I have written a lot about that within this thread. And because there are SO MANY variables that can go into any particular ride, I could write a full page and still not get you whatever it is for you, that would help you understand exactly what you are maybe looking for. So let me say this, and let me know with any follow ups if it and other answers I have posted are not enough.

Jocks have a plan when they get into the gate. Sometimes the race will unfold pretty much to script and that plan will be executed. But we all know that the second the gates open, everything can change and often does. So, the rider must try and put his or her mount in the best possible position they can, knowing the horses strengths and weaknesses. That seems simple enough but what is not simple is the jock has no control over what the other jocks are going to do. They also have no control over there mount if the horse they are riding does not respond when asked, not just to fully accelerate, but also to settle in, relax, move up just a bit early on while expending very little energy, etc. So, often enough, a particular rider will be forced to move early or later than they might have wanted to because of traffic or pressure they are getting from others as well as being inside going into a turn when every horse will basically slide inwards about 3 feet. Four across the track means the inside horse will need 9 feet of space between the outside horse and the rail or that inside horse will be slammed into the rail. That is why you see jocks check out of the inside path just before the turn comes up.
So in short, sometimes they can do what they want to and sometimes they are forced to do something based on the flow of the race.

Hope that helps. Let me know if it does not.

WHile that was helpful, I was moreso looking into how a horse is controlled? Like, are they simply pulling on the reins? Or what about when you see they arms really moving up and down, what are they doing there?

[str]

WHile that was helpful, I was moreso looking into how a horse is controlled? Like, are they simply pulling on the reins? Or what about when you see they arms really moving up and down, what are they doing there?

There are many types of bits that go into the horses mouth. The reins are attached to them. Just like different people,different horses can be passive, aggressive, crazy, stupid, smart, ultra competitive, etc. The type of bit will depend on who each horse is, and the habits they pick up along with if they pull you like crazy too run off fast or readily respond to hand commands, etc.
They make very soft rubber bits for horses with an over sensitive mouth, as well as bits with extra steel in them to help hold the horse back. They make bits with prongs or even buttons like on a coat, to use as pressure on the outer jaw to keep the horse running straight. If they tend to bear out, they will have a prong or button on the outside of the jaw. The horse will not come in contact with the prong or button unless they start to drift in that direction and the rider pulls the inside rein to correct the drifting. Same goes in reverse with the horse that wants to get in.
All these bits are designed to keep the horse from being unruly and maintaining a straight course.

When you see the rider pumping them with their arms, they are encouraging the horse to run on. But... the reins still stay somewhat tight because a horse needs to run into the bit. Grab it and run into it. Not drop the bit. If the horse does not grab the bit, they will do what is commonly called " spit the bit", meaning they quit and simply drop back.

Do remember, a horses mouth is a very sensitive part of there body. Bits will, in almost all cases, totally control where the horse will go.

Here is a link that will show many of them.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&sqi=2&ved=0CC0QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Frockandracehorses.wordpress.com%2F2009%2F02%2F21%2Fracehorses-bits-commonly-used-in-thoroughbred-horse-racing-sales-breeding%2F&ei=kxTtUqKDFMzksAS03IDoAQ&usg=AFQjCNGhvPsS0SBrMhzJVLbSQYqs8AEUTg&sig2=ogqEUTtHZzxWUH549rVPMA&bvm=bv.60444564,d.cWc&cad=rja

[cutchemist42]

There are many types of bits that go into the horses mouth. The reins are attached to them. Just like different people,different horses can be passive, aggressive, crazy, stupid, smart, ultra competitive, etc. The type of bit will depend on who each horse is, and the habits they pick up along with if they pull you like crazy too run off fast or readily respond to hand commands, etc.
They make very soft rubber bits for horses with an over sensitive mouth, as well as bits with extra steel in them to help hold the horse back. They make bits with prongs or even buttons like on a coat, to use as pressure on the outer jaw to keep the horse running straight. If they tend to bear out, they will have a prong or button on the outside of the jaw. The horse will not come in contact with the prong or button unless they start to drift in that direction and the rider pulls the inside rein to correct the drifting. Same goes in reverse with the horse that wants to get in.
All these bits are designed to keep the horse from being unruly and maintaining a straight course.


When you see the rider pumping them with their arms, they are encouraging the horse to run on. But... the reins still stay somewhat tight because a horse needs to run into the bit. Grab it and run into it. Not drop the bit. If the horse does not grab the bit, they will do what is commonly called " spit the bit", meaning they quit and simply drop back.

Do remember, a horses mouth is a very sensitive part of there body. Bits will, in almost all cases, totally control where the horse will go.

Here is a link that will show many of them.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...,d.cWc&cad=rja

Thanks very much str!!!

[harthebar]

HEY STR. how you been , i have a good question for you the other day at Santa anita , i was looking at a horse warming up .race 4 the horse looked really nice to me, kinda of the same way i saw goldenscents....lol this isnt a goldenscents......anyway i looked at the form and it was a first time starter named gutsy ruler 3 year old racing for 30,000 claimer , so i watched the race , made a little play on him, and he pissed on the field like wasnt even asked 22.6 44.7 57.3 finished 5.5 furlongs in 104.24 he won by 20 , i know the field had to be crap or maybe he is a higher claimer i dont know,,,,,,the question i have for you is , if you had a horse, and you thought he was a special horse you would never offer a 30000 claim on him would,,or do some do it to take a shot at the purse, how do they work that first start , could the horse be a much higher level here is the chart watch replay if you get a chance ,,, can a trainer sometimes not know how good a horse can be there is a big diffrerece beteween a 30000 c the a MSW right,,,well there you have it , i hope ypo get what im asking thanks

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA012314USA4.pdf

[str]

HEY STR. how you been , i have a good question for you the other day at Santa anita , i was looking at a horse warming up .race 4 the horse looked really nice to me, kinda of the same way i saw goldenscents....lol this isnt a goldenscents......anyway i looked at the form and it was a first time starter named gutsy ruler 3 year old racing for 30,000 claimer , so i watched the race , made a little play on him, and he pissed on the field like wasnt even asked 22.6 44.7 57.3 finished 5.5 furlongs in 104.24 he won by 20 , i know the field had to be crap or maybe he is a higher claimer i dont know,,,,,,the question i have for you is , if you had a horse, and you thought he was a special horse you would never offer a 30000 claim on him would,,or do some do it to take a shot at the purse, how do they work that first start , could the horse be a much higher level here is the chart watch replay if you get a chance ,,, can a trainer sometimes not know how good a horse can be there is a big diffrerece beteween a 30000 c the a MSW right,,,well there you have it , i hope ypo get what im asking thanks
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...012314USA4.pdf

Hi Har... I am well. Thanks for asking.

A trainer CAN take a shot with a firster but it is highly doubtful it was this one.Here is why:

First of all, he is a Cal. bred gelding that is wearing blinkers and getting lasix all as a firster. What that tells me is, in all probability, the horse has something going on within him that has gotten the attention of the trainer and he wants to get this horse earning and producing right away. I say that because if you have a sound, upside type horse, that you feel has a solid potential to really be something, you give the horse time to develop somewhat. There is no need to have blks. on, lasix, etc. Secondly, when a trainer runs a horse 5 1/2 first time, unless there are no 6 furlong races being written, if you felt the horse might go a bit longer and mature, you would probably opt to wait for the 6 F. race instead of the 5 1/2 which is a hurried effort, whereas the 6 F. is more of a relax a bit type race. If you feel your horse has upside potential, aren't you trying to get that horse to relax a bit and learn to further it's growth? Yes, you would in most cases. So when I see 5 1/2 and blks. on and lasix all as a firster, it tells me that there is a good chance this horse is on the skinny side, or small side without much chance of being a 60-80K type horse. Or maybe has a knee or bad feet or something. That's a rule of thumb but it is right way more often than it is wrong.
If the horse was wearing a tongue tie, and I would bet it was, it tells me that he very well could have a breathing problem that will restrict his ability to go further than 6 F. Also, he is sent by the rider in the comments meaning the plan was to go to the front right away, again, telling me he might just be a fast horse that can only go so far. His body( conformation) and demeanor( nervous, anxious, maybe washy) would both hint to that as well if it is indeed true. Without seeing him, I have no idea. No equibase account so I can't see the replay.

So, this is probably a case of a horse that was placed in a spot to compete right away and he drew a soft field and the key opponent did not run well. So, he wins. Let's see where he runs him back. Should be interesting.

When your aunt and uncle ran Double Bunctious as a firster, they ran her for 25K. She was not bred great by buying standards and she was nervous and kind of skinny. She looked like she belonged in that type of race. Anyone that would have looked at her in the paddock probably would have not claimed her , at least not on looks, but Leatherbury never looks at horses, he claims strictly on paper. So he took her. The Westlands were devastated, and went to Leatherbury and asked to buy her back. He said no but promised to run her back in a 30K maiden claimer. So, they fired the other trainer, hired me, and had me claim her back. I did and proceeded to run her back around 2 turns in a MSW race, which she won. Then, in her next start, we ran her in the Caesars Wish at Piimlico and she won that. A nice surprise. She then evolved into a multiple stakes winner . She was not that good as a firster. No way. She had not shown that type of ability. But blks. on and lasix and learning how to run, she became that good. So to answer the question about being special and if trainers not knowing, the answer is yes, horses can improve drastically in there first 3 or 4 races and don't always show all the ability they have right away.

You never know for sure until it's too late.

But that goes for a lot of things doesn't it.

Thanks for checking in.

Hope this helps.

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR. Good info. If you want to see the replay Cal racing.com has it. Free to sign up.

[str]

STR. Good info. If you want to see the replay Cal racing.com has it. Free to sign up.

Just edited my comments a little.

Thanks for the heads up. I will sign up and watch.

[str]

STR. Good info. If you want to see the replay Cal racing.com has it. Free to sign up.

Just watched the replay.

I am pretty sure there was no tongue tie, eliminating a breathing problem, but, I see the large shadow roll.( green felt over his nose).

That is worn when a horse runs with there head too high in the air. Speed horses that wear them often throw there head in the air when hooked or pinned in between. Not that wearing one is a bad thing because it's not but... they make different types. A thin shadow roll is common to see. But when I see a thicker shadow roll on, it's for a real reason.

I guess that when I see a firster come out on the track the first time wearing most of the tack shop , like this guy, it says 2 things. First, if he can win, he is probably ready to. They have worked hard to get him ready. The 2nd thing is, his long term ability is probably suspect. But that can play into a good thing for the bettor that simply wants to know if he can use the horse or not. In this type of case, if the money shows and they have all this equipment on 1st time, the answer is probably yes.

[harthebar]

were all those comments about the horse i posted ? double bountios do you remember when you guys brought her up to run a turf stakes at atlantic city and paid like 50.00 that was great........so the blinker on a first time , thats interesting and good info, now if you were a player would you take that play......buy the way i think the the horse we are talking about was 6-1 morning line, just like goldenscents,,,,, they both got bet down, so do you thing there is is any chance of that horse going much higher, remember she was the best according to odds

[harthebar]

Are you talking about the horse i mentioned gusty

just watched the replay.

I am pretty sure there was no tongue tie, eliminating a breathing problem, but, i see the large shadow roll.( green felt over his nose).

That is worn when a horse runs with there head too high in the air. Speed horses that wear them often throw there head in the air when hooked or pinned in between. Not that wearing one is a bad thing because it's not but... They make different types. A thin shadow roll is common to see. But when i see a thicker shadow roll on, it's for a real reason.

I guess that when i see a firster come out on the track the first time wearing most of the tack shop , like this guy, it says 2 things. First, if he can win, he is probably ready to. They have worked hard to get him ready. The 2nd thing is, his long term ability is probably suspect. But that can play into a good thing for the bettor that simply wants to know if he can use the horse or not. In this type of case, if the money shows and they have all this equipment on 1st time, the answer is probably yes.

[str]

were all those comments about the horse i posted ? double bountios do you remember when you guys brought her up to run a turf stakes at atlantic city and paid like 50.00 that was great........so the blinker on a first time , thats interesting and good info, now if you were a player would you take that play......buy the way i think the the horse we are talking about was 6-1 morning line, just like goldenscents,,,,, they both got bet down, so do you thing there is is any chance of that horse going much higher, remember she was the best according to odds

I think that blks. on is the single most important info a bettor can have. If you follow certain circuits and keep a mental note of who wins often when putting blks. on you will be glad you did. It is a great way to cash a bet.

This past Ky. Derby, Palice Malice went blks. on and ran a fabulous race. The crazy fractions early allowed closers to win but more importantly, they shed light on who was capable of winning on or with the lead, running reasonable early fractions.
Oxbow, who length beaten and time wise off of the Derby, arguably ran the best of all the Derby horses,came back to win the Preakness.

Palice Malice, who ran off like his hair was on fire in the Derby, had the blks. off in the Belmont and he too won. Both horses paid wonderful prices.

Following trainers with blks. on is a must in my book.

[str]

Are you talking about the horse i mentioned gusty

Yes.

As for can he improve? It's easy to say he can, but the majority of horses that where thick shadow rolls especially as a firster are one dimensional speed horses that MUST have things there own way early or they will simply quit. An all or nothing type. It would be reckless for me to say Gusty will be like that but playing the percentages, if forced to guess, I would say yes, he is likely to be that type of horse. Time will tell.

[harthebar]

i guess its like being a weatherman, everything is based on probabilities from the past ...lo ....i just want to understabd , if your traing a horse and you want to to get him out the first time, you should know , wether he is a MSW or just a claimer , most wont take that risk , if the y thought the horse had any big dreams, you know i like harness, ..what is a thick shadow roll ? you mentiond 1 st timer that you lose blinkers and lasix are what.....? did you watch the the replay , also , he got bet down big time, pnormal players , dont play first time starters unless they get action on them....hope im making sence , but i will tell you next out , there was anothor horse , who did the same thing, i cant think of his name, if i do ,ill let you know, im telling you one day im going to gather all this data and make a great bood, and you will get a great cut, ,,if you every come up to atlantic city, let me know , i have a big house ,,your more than welcome, after all aunt nancy , makes like family

[harthebar]

Purecraziluck thats the name of the horse he was a first time starter and blew everyone away IT WAS A CHEAP MAID, CLAIMER NOW THE HORSE THAT RAN SECOND TO HIM CAME BACK OUT IN A BIT TOUGHER FIELD , AND HE ..SHE PISSEDE ON THE FIELD LORI'S IMAGE. SO IM KEEPING AN EYE ON SOME OF THE FIELD , FOR THERE RETURE...THE BOOKER RAN IN THERE HE HASNT RACED SINCE ,BUT GOT SQUEEZED TWICE.....I JUST FIND THE GAME OF THESES MAIDEN HORSES AS THEY ARE 3 NOW, ITS THE TIME OF THE YEAR , YOU HAVE TO CHART THEM BUT MORE IMPORTANT , IS TO TO FOLLOW THE HORSES THAT RAN SECOND TO THE GOOD ONE'S AND SEE WHAT THEY DID , IUTS LIKE A PYRAMAID , I GOT ON OXBOW THAT WAY, AND WILL TAKE CHARGE, AND AS YOU KNOW ...MY CLAIM TO FAME ...THE DISCOVERY OF GOLDENSCENTS , HA HA HA ..LOVE SAYING THAT

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP011514USA2.pdf

[str]

i guess its like being a weatherman, everything is based on probabilities from the past ...lo ....i just want to understabd , if your traing a horse and you want to to get him out the first time, you should know , wether he is a MSW or just a claimer , most wont take that risk , if the y thought the horse had any big dreams, you know i like harness, ..what is a thick shadow roll ? you mentiond 1 st timer that you lose blinkers and lasix are what.....? did you watch the the replay , also , he got bet down big time, pnormal players , dont play first time starters unless they get action on them....hope im making sence , but i will tell you next out , there was anothor horse , who did the same thing, i cant think of his name, if i do ,ill let you know, im telling you one day im going to gather all this data and make a great bood, and you will get a great cut, ,,if you every come up to atlantic city, let me know , i have a big house ,,your more than welcome, after all aunt nancy , makes like family

Q.what is a thick shadow roll ?

A. The thick fuzzy green nose band he wore. It is bigger and thicker than most because he needs it. And because of that, he in all probability has tendencies that I mentioned. Not absolute, but probably. Time will tell.

Q. you mentiond 1 st timer that you lose blinkers and lasix are what.....?

A. think you meant use not lose. If so, when a firster has all this already going on, the horses upside is typically limited. Again, not always, but more often than not.

Q. did you watch the the replay , also , he got bet down big time, pnormal players , dont play first time starters unless they get action on them..

A. Yes, I did see the replay . He was bet down but look at the race. A small field with several 10-1 or higher horses. In that size field there were only a few horses to bet on. You have to really not fit in the race or have very poor form to be 12-1 or 15-1 in a 7 horse field right? Because those long shots had shown they can "not" run I think the "bet down" aspect is overstated. He had some early money show on him and process of elimination sent other players in his direction. Had this been a full field and he goes off 9-5, sure but not a small field with limited bet able entries.

Hope that makes sense to everyone.

[harthebar]

thats why i ask you, i want to learn, and you a book of knowledge

Q.what is a thick shadow roll ?

A. The thick fuzzy green nose band he wore. It is bigger and thicker than most because he needs it. And because of that, he in all probability has tendencies that I mentioned. Not absolute, but probably. Time will tell.

Q. you mentiond 1 st timer that you lose blinkers and lasix are what.....?

A. think you meant use not lose. If so, when a firster has all this already going on, the horses upside is typically limited. Again, not always, but more often than not.

Q. did you watch the the replay , also , he got bet down big time, pnormal players , dont play first time starters unless they get action on them..

A. Yes, I did see the replay . He was bet down but look at the race. A small field with several 10-1 or higher horses. In that size field there were only a few horses to bet on. You have to really not fit in the race or have very poor form to be 12-1 or 15-1 in a 7 horse field right? Because those long shots had shown they can "not" run I think the "bet down" aspect is overstated. He had some early money show on him and process of elimination sent other players in his direction. Had this been a full field and he goes off 9-5, sure but not a small field with limited bet able entries.

Hope that makes sense to everyone.

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR. Another way to watch replays on Stakes races for free is Bloodhorse.com. No sign up needed. Thought I would pass it on to those who may be interested.

[keebs8101]

If you have a 300 bankroll to bet with should you just play exacta's tris box them and do like one pick 3 / 4. When is it smart to play win place or show?

Thanks for the help.

[str]

If you have a 300 bankroll to bet with should you just play exacta's tris box them and do like one pick 3 / 4. When is it smart to play win place or show?

Thanks for the help.

There are a bunch of guys in here that are solid and plenty might differ on what you might do. For me, I don't care for place and show. I also , with that small a bank roll, might stay away from tri's and pick 3/4's unless you were looking for a big hit, and really liked a longer price horse.
Win , and exactas would probably be my choice but without knowing the price of any particular horse, I can't answer perfectly.

If the 300 is the entire bank roll, I would be betting small and selectively. If it's 300 on any particular day, that would change.

If you are just starting out, why bet any of it? Just work to get better and get educated. Following some of this thread and reading how others in their threads bet will shed some light as well.

So is it 300 total bank roll or 300 for the day?

And is this new to you or do you fully understand the game ?

Let me know and I can hopefully be more help.

[harthebar]

sometimes you get to far out of the loop like to get you back up here, this is the time of the year , its my favorite trying to sniff out that top 3 year old,,,, ha ha ha ha goldenscents ...lol i will always say......i sniffed that after his first race , before his first race lol we will find another, you like anyone you see lately, not counting the one who is supposed to here...
OAKLAWN 2-17-14.pdf
SANTA ANITA 2-17-14.pdf
GULFSTREAM 2-17-14.pdf

oaklawn has a nice race

[harthebar]

i will answer that.. if you want high risk...try your luck on 50 cent pick 4 at major tracks if you want low reward buts its still winning, pick and choose and bet a horse to show, i'm not talking about a 1-1 2/5 like 10-1 6-1 mike or i post those bets....but dont bet every race and every track....stick to a few tracks that you can follow and forget about the rest, unless its a major grade 1-2-3 race then follow that ......its not how much you win, its how much you dont lose...whats that word

“Excelsior moving forward, quote of the day lol

If you have a 300 bankroll to bet with should you just play exacta's tris box them and do like one pick 3 / 4. When is it smart to play win place or show?

Thanks for the help.

[mrginandtonic]

i will answer that.. if you want high risk...try your luck on 50 cent pick 4 at major tracks if you want low reward buts its still winning, pick and choose and bet a horse to show, i'm not talking about a 1-1 2/5 like 10-1 6-1 mike or i post those bets....but dont bet every race and every track....stick to a few tracks that you can follow and forget about the rest, unless its a major grade 1-2-3 race then follow that ......its not how much you win, its how much you dont lose...whats that word

“Excelsior moving forward, quote of the day lol

I totally agree with Hart here in that "dont bet every race and every track....stick to a few tracks that you can follow and forget about the rest, unless its a major grade 1-2-3 race then follow that" I myself plays mainly Southern California tracks, and sometimes follow the east coast, like Gulfstream Park. That way, I not only know the horses, but the trainers and the jockeys and even owners. Alot of info in horse racing, just like the stock market. Information is there and it is up to you to find them and digest them. GL.

[harthebar]

str or anyone the mark on the winner means he is nominated for the derby yes/no and why wasnt the mark on him his first race just his second...his firse race was in jan 2014

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP021214USA7.pdf

also what do you think of the race , for a MSW race anyone feel free

[cutchemist42]

I've heard a sucker bet is betting a horse dropping down the claiming ranks, when he looked competitive at a past level. I read the thought is the trainer trying to get some last money out of an ailing horse. I was just wondering how true this might be, or what drop in claiming should signal us that this might be happening.

To make a quick example, a horse dropping 6250 to 5000 might not be as severe as dropping 10,000 to 5,000 if competitive at 10,000.

[str]

sometimes you get to far out of the loop like to get you back up here, this is the time of the year , its my favorite trying to sniff out that top 3 year old,,,, ha ha ha ha goldenscents ...lol i will always say......i sniffed that after his first race , before his first race lol we will find another, you like anyone you see lately, not counting the one who is supposed to here...
OAKLAWN 2-17-14.pdf
SANTA ANITA 2-17-14.pdf
GULFSTREAM 2-17-14.pdf

oaklawn has a nice race

I am always around.

Anytime Har.

[str]

I've heard a sucker bet is betting a horse dropping down the claiming ranks, when he looked competitive at a past level. I read the thought is the trainer trying to get some last money out of an ailing horse. I was just wondering how true this might be, or what drop in claiming should signal us that this might be happening.

To make a quick example, a horse dropping 6250 to 5000 might not be as severe as dropping 10,000 to 5,000 if competitive at 10,000.

Well, that is the old saying. That said, the claiming game is a complex one. There are no easy answers. For the most part, if a trainer drops a horse off a solid effort, they very well might be trying to entice someone to claim the horse from them and get the purse as well if they can. Because the odds will be so low, playing against or passing if no other horse seems suitable is probably the way to go. Knowing the trainers success rate doing this as well as the trainers race spotting pattern will further help. It's this and other trainer patterns that you would get to know well if you followed one or two tracks instead of betting all over the map that promotes the thought process of following just a couple of tracks instead of many, other than the major stakes races.

While the trainers drop down % will be under the horses form, it does not break out drops to fit each reason. For instance, an open 10k with no conditions dropping to a 5k is a very suspicious drop. However, dropping from 10k n/w2 lifetime after a hard fought win down to 5k n/w3 lifetime is , while a drop, not severe at all if the trainer treats the game as a true business and the horse is not a pet. That is probably all the horse is actually worth. So the difference is completely different but the drop down stats are mixed. Without understanding the trainers pattern a bit more , those %'s can be skewed and you are stabbing.

As for 6250 -5000 vs. 10,000-5,000 , the claiming declensions tell you how many steps down the drop actually is. If a track offers 10k, 8k, 6250 and 5k that is a 3 level drop. If they only offer 10k, 7.5k and 5k, that is a 2 level drop. See the difference? So again, knowing the track you are playing as well as the trainers a little better than the other guy can create an edge for you.

Lastly, front bandages "on" and a big drop in open, no conditions races is reason enough to never play that type of horse. Let them beat you, and they will sometimes, but if you played all drop downs with front bandages on for the 1st time, I would guess the ROI would be terrible.

Wander through this thread and there will be several lengthy writings about the claiming game as sometimes, a trainer is just "stealing' to get the horse some confidence or keep the people claiming his horses guessing. If all a trainer ever did was get the bad horses claimed from them, they would eventually stop having any horses claimed from them, and that would be as bad for business as losing a good one is. Like I said, the claiming game is a complex game and it deals with several facets of gambling, not just the mutual windows.

Hope that helps.

[str]

str or anyone the mark on the winner means he is nominated for the derby yes/no and why wasnt the mark on him his first race just his second...his firse race was in jan 2014

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP021214USA7.pdf

also what do you think of the race , for a MSW race anyone feel free

Looks to me that the mark is a "Keenland Graduate" symbol. Meaning the horse was bought at the Keenland sales. Just a rolling advertisement for the most part but it was blurry so I can't be 100% positive.

[cutchemist42]

Well, that is the old saying. That said, the claiming game is a complex one. There are no easy answers. For the most part, if a trainer drops a horse off a solid effort, they very well might be trying to entice someone to claim the horse from them and get the purse as well if they can. Because the odds will be so low, playing against or passing if no other horse seems suitable is probably the way to go. Knowing the trainers success rate doing this as well as the trainers race spotting pattern will further help. It's this and other trainer patterns that you would get to know well if you followed one or two tracks instead of betting all over the map that promotes the thought process of following just a couple of tracks instead of many, other than the major stakes races.

While the trainers drop down % will be under the horses form, it does not break out drops to fit each reason. For instance, an open 10k with no conditions dropping to a 5k is a very suspicious drop. However, dropping from 10k n/w2 lifetime after a hard fought win down to 5k n/w3 lifetime is , while a drop, not severe at all if the trainer treats the game as a true business and the horse is not a pet. That is probably all the horse is actually worth. So the difference is completely different but the drop down stats are mixed. Without understanding the trainers pattern a bit more , those %'s can be skewed and you are stabbing.

As for 6250 -5000 vs. 10,000-5,000 , the claiming declensions tell you how many steps down the drop actually is. If a track offers 10k, 8k, 6250 and 5k that is a 3 level drop. If they only offer 10k, 7.5k and 5k, that is a 2 level drop. See the difference? So again, knowing the track you are playing as well as the trainers a little better than the other guy can create an edge for you.

Lastly, front bandages "on" and a big drop in open, no conditions races is reason enough to never play that type of horse. Let them beat you, and they will sometimes, but if you played all drop downs with front bandages on for the 1st time, I would guess the ROI would be terrible.

Wander through this thread and there will be several lengthy writings about the claiming game as sometimes, a trainer is just "stealing' to get the horse some confidence or keep the people claiming his horses guessing. If all a trainer ever did was get the bad horses claimed from them, they would eventually stop having any horses claimed from them, and that would be as bad for business as losing a good one is. Like I said, the claiming game is a complex game and it deals with several facets of gambling, not just the mutual windows.

Hope that helps.

Great answer, thanks!