Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

saturday by army mule

churchill 2 (1:16)
6 wonder of you (5-1)

laurel 6 (2:33) stakes
2 discreet ops (10-1)

monmouth 8 (4:06)
4 bel pensiero (7-2)
7 molly's a bullet (15-1)
full siblings

woodbine 9 (5:39) grade 1
1 stanley house (10-1)


results post 11229

[JBEX]

world record (a since his debut follow horse for me and str) is running in a listed stakes at churchill tomorrow R10 #1 (4-1) .. post 5:29

I like him here ..it sets up well with an honest pace (3,10) which I think he will stalk ..he does have excellent speed but from the rail don't think he'll try to go with those two early .. capable vs these with his best effort

scratched

[JBEX]

by army mule sunday

baq 3 (2:05)
1 remember the chief (15-1)

churchill 1 (12:45)
6 hope restored (10-1)

churchill 2 (1:14)
4 bourbon state (20-1)

churchill 3 (1:43)
3 flick (6-1)

churchill 5 (2:45)
4 colonel caliente (4-1)


tracking post 11229

[JBEX]

made 3 changes to recording results ..explained in that post "*"

[JBEX]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/287279/chancer-mcpatrick-to-stand-at-spendthrift

will finish his career in the breeders cup mile and stand at spendthrift next year

[str]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...at-spendthrift

will finish his career in the breeders cup mile and stand at spendthrift next year

I thought that this next race might be it for him. I think that he could be a stallion that has a chance to surprise some people.
The initial peak into his talent never got to the heights that it potentially could have but his record is still solid. Might be a little under the radar and that’s ok. In a what have you done lately world we are in today, he has a chance to surprise.

What he did in that last 1/8th mile of his debut race is indeed extremely rare air.

Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

[ProSportsEdge]

Honestly I think this might happen to some degree in harness racing, but I do not know for sure, but if it is happening anywhere in flat racing other than some rinky dink track as small and backwards as Charlestown at least and probably less than that , I would be stunned. For a trainer to say something like that at let's say Pimlico , Del. Park , Parx. is simply unheard of. In my time it did not exist. If you could give me more info as to who would do this or where the race took place I could better speak too it. Please let me know.

Totally — I’d be stunned to hear that at places like Pimlico, Del. Park or Parx. Sounds like something you’d only see at a tiny backwater track. Got a trainer name or race/date? I can dig into it.

[JBEX]

I thought that this next race might be it for him. I think that he could be a stallion that has a chance to surprise some people.
The initial peak into his talent never got to the heights that it potentially could have but his record is still solid. Might be a little under the radar and that’s ok. In a what have you done lately world we are in today, he has a chance to surprise.

What he did in that last 1/8th mile of his debut race is indeed extremely rare air.

Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

no problem str

agree about his prospects as a stallion .. it was a sensational 3 races to start his career and obviously that operation knows what sets a horse up to be a successful stallion .. thought there were quite a few legit excuses for the subpar efforts he had .. joins kingsbarns and they have one of the best overall lineup of stallions in the industry

if he has a good effort in the bc I will be very impressed as that track is probably a tough layout for his running style

[JBEX]

Totally — I’d be stunned to hear that at places like Pimlico, Del. Park or Parx. Sounds like something you’d only see at a tiny backwater track. Got a trainer name or race/date? I can dig into it.

his trainer is chad brown..all his 2yo races (and probably 3yo also) are on you tube

[str]

Totally — I’d be stunned to hear that at places like Pimlico, Del. Park or Parx. Sounds like something you’d only see at a tiny backwater track. Got a trainer name or race/date? I can dig into it.

Not sure where this comes from. Can you provide a page that this was on . I might have more info.
Thanks

[JBEX]

his trainer is chad brown..all his 2yo races (and probably 3yo also) are on you tube

nevermind this response .. wrong context ..sorry

[JBEX]

weds by army mule

churchill 1 (12:45)
7 brooklyn drew (5-2)

[ProSportsEdge]

his trainer is chad brown..all his 2yo races (and probably 3yo also) are on you tube

Yeah, that makes sense — Chad Brown’s horses usually have all their races uploaded. You can just search the horse’s name on YouTube and they should pop right up.

[JBEX]

Yeah, that makes sense — Chad Brown’s horses usually have all their races uploaded. You can just search the horse’s name on YouTube and they should pop right up.

just to clarify my initial response back to you was based on I thought for some reason you were referring to chancer mcpatrick with your response to str's post..not sure why I would think that based on what you said as it admittedly makes no sense ..the chad brown trainer and you tube replays is about CM .. again I apologize for the confusion I caused

[str]

just to clarify my initial response back to you was based on I thought for some reason you were referring to chancer mcpatrick with your response to str's post..not sure why I would think that based on what you said as it admittedly makes no sense ..the chad brown trainer and you tube replays is about CM .. again I apologize for the confusion I caused

JBEX, I welcome mistakes from others every once in a while. Makes me feel like I have some company.

And I am confused on where that response of mine came from. Not sure what I was referring to .

[JBEX]

JBEX, I welcome mistakes from others every once in a while. Makes me feel like I have some company.

And I am confused on where that response of mine came from. Not sure what I was referring to .

2nd day of this thread .. page 1 .. post 34

[JBEX]

I thought that this next race might be it for him. I think that he could be a stallion that has a chance to surprise some people.
The initial peak into his talent never got to the heights that it potentially could have but his record is still solid. Might be a little under the radar and that’s ok. In a what have you done lately world we are in today, he has a chance to surprise.

What he did in that last 1/8th mile of his debut race is indeed extremely rare air.

Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

realize he did as well as you possibly can at saratoga as a 2yo but I wonder if he was just a little more ahead of the competition physically at that point .. then the others caught up with him as 3yos ..just kind of feel if they settled in with him as a 7f to 1 turn mile horse at aqueduct (and sure he'd get a crack at belmont next year) that he could've been a solid older horse .. making up ground on the wide belmont turns would favor his style don't you think ?

I'm not saying they should have done that (who the heck am I lol) but putting aside the stallion money could you see him doing well as a 4yo taking that path ?

[JBEX]

no army mule runners at our tracks thursday..today's result posted

[JBEX]

2nd day of this thread .. page 1 .. post 34

a search for "rinky dink track " got me there.. obviously,being it's an ancient post,he should have posted a reference date of the quote

[ProSportsEdge]

Not hijacking at all. My expertise as to the betting end is limited and outdated . It is the training end that I am best suited. I certainly expect plenty of betting questions and some of those I am not best suited for especially with the newer information that did not exist unless you created it yourself back in the day.
I have to think that people get confused as to why a trainer might do or not do things and why a horse did or did not do certain things.Understanding that pace is so important, etc.
Thanks for the help.

Totally understand — your insight on the training side is valuable. A lot of people overlook how much goes into those decisions beyond just the betting angles. That perspective really helps connect the dots.

[str]

[QUOTE=ProSportsEdge;n29901320]
Totally understand — your insight on the training side is valuable. A lot of people overlook how much goes into those decisions beyond just the betting angles. That perspective really helps connect the dots.


It looks like you are going through this long and winding road of a thread. Fire away if you have any questions. Hope there is something there that helps.

[JBEX]

no army mule runners at our tracks friday

[ProSportsEdge]

This is where I might be behind in the times. There is soooo much info out there today that did not exist 10 years ago that I do not want to tell you the wrong thing. To my knowledge DRF.com ( Daily Racing Form) is still the leader in info. But be aware that their is SO much for you to learn and so many variables involved that if you bet more than 2.00 dollars a race at this point , I would say you are crazy. Probably best served to watch as many races as possible and just start to get a feel for the game.
So, with that said, please do me 2 favors.
1st. READ THE CHARTS of the races you watch the next day and review what you think you saw.
2nd. Learn to watch replays of every race you witness. Both angles. Even if you do not know what you are watching yet, you will see things along the way and become a better handicapper for it.
Most handicappers are only as good as there routine. Make sure that yours is better than the guys you are playing against , namely all the other bettors out there.
Keep me posted.

Great advice — starting slow and focusing on charts and replays is huge. Getting into a solid routine really does make all the difference over time. Appreciate you sharing that perspective.

[JBEX]

parx has their best card of the year tomorrow with 7 stakes including the pennsylvania derby and filly equivalent the cotillion

all 8 undercard races carry purses of $100k and they include two by army mule ..consider these like minor stakes races so going to include them in tomorrow's entries


parx 2 (11:35)
5 mission first (8-1)

parx 6 (1:31)
3 ceepeegee (4-1)

[JBEX]

added them to above post.. nothing else at other 3 tracks

[str]

Great advice — starting slow and focusing on charts and replays is huge. Getting into a solid routine really does make all the difference over time. Appreciate you sharing that perspective.

Thanks.


It is nice to see that some advice has passed the test of time. As you read through I go into detail about trips horses get that are pluses or minuses and WHY.

It’s the minuses that are best focused on as they can produce overlay’s when they run back. The pluses are a close second because they often produce low prices next out that are very possibly play against horses if the new setup of the race is detrimental to their style.

If handicappers can focus on fewer tracks and refer to notes taken on horses that get great or bad trips, they can then cherry-pick plays from those and in most cases create a solid edge by simply knowing more than the other players do.

if a player is not sure of good or bad trips , it’s all in here. You just need to put in the time to read it, find it, write it down, and follow it.
This requires some patience but if you get the hang of it, it is almost surgical with its results.
Players that focus on having an edge and knowing it, thrive at the racetrack because 90% of those they bet against do not know how to do this.

Anyone that does this will most likely look back and think “where has this been all my life. “

Being as honest as I possibly can, when my best friend and I go to the track, maybe 1-2-3 times a year, we look at it like “ will we win a little or a good amount today ?
Losing never enters into the conversation. Break even is a bad day in our minds.
And while of course we can lose, and have before, it’s not very often and it’s never much . I can’t recall the last losing day. It’s there , but hasn’t been lately.

That is NOT a brag, I have no interest in that, it’s just the way it is and anyone reading this can do the same thing if they work for it.

It’s amazing! But make no mistake, I spent half a lifetime learning and still learn something almost every time I go to the track.
It is a surreal feeling if you are passionate about the races and enjoy learning something new every day.

I really hope that helps.

[JBEX]

sunday by army mule..updated today 11229

churchill 8 (4:19)
5 hillerito (5-2)

[JBEX]

by army mule monday .. updated today 11229

finger lakes 8 (4:23)
4 party in the army (3-1)

2 year old stakes race

[JBEX]

wednesday by army mule


churchill 1 (12:45)
5 master mule (10-1)

churchill 8 (4:19)
9 grade a (8-1)