Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

gonna watch..goes in about 10 mins

I will watch .

Thanks.

[JBEX]

np enjoy..think mary's gonna be tough

[JBEX]

you see what jamie Ness is doing there..wow !!

8 ran a good race ..was forced to move a little sooner than he probably wanted to

[JBEX]

hey str

wanted to get your opinion on "rebel's romance" last race in the uae derby..was wondering if there is anything you could take away from that effort..same distance as the preakness but who knows about the kind of competition he was facing..looked to me that he did it comfortably and maybe switched leads a little late in the stretch..godolphin homebred with a very classy pedigree and no one is bred better to go the belmont distance than him..mike smith will be riding

#10

https://youtu.be/0vt7l8irpF0

[str]

you see what jamie Ness is doing there..wow !!

8 ran a good race ..was forced to move a little sooner than he probably wanted to

I could not find the race on TV. No TVG 1 or 2 and not on America day at the races. Didn't know where else to look and didn't have time to try and find it on a website.

[JBEX]

I could not find the race on TV. No TVG 1 or 2 and not on America day at the races. Didn't know where else to look and didn't have time to try and find it on a website.

yeah I don't think america's day at the races does delaware although they seem to be expanding to some smaller tracks as secondary products to the big tracks (bel,cd)


I watched it on the tvg web app which is where I watch most of my races (live and replays)..I think I get it as I'm typing this..delaware wouldn't make the main track lineup on the weekend for tvg 1..I used to look at 2 but not recently so not sure about that..the web may have been the only place it was available

[JBEX]

they have a you tube channel

https://youtu.be/k2T4o7PNYw8

[JBEX]

they have a you tube channel

https://youtu.be/k2T4o7PNYw8

watching it again my description was not good ..the 1 was inside of him all along and basically a 2 horse race through a good part of the turn to the wire

[JBEX]

hey str

wanted to get your opinion on "rebel's romance" last race in the uae derby..was wondering if there is anything you could take away from that effort..same distance as the preakness but who knows about the kind of competition he was facing..looked to me that he did it comfortably and maybe switched leads a little late in the stretch..godolphin homebred with a very classy pedigree and no one is bred better to go the belmont distance than him..mike smith will be riding

#10

https://youtu.be/0vt7l8irpF0

out of the race with a hind leg infection

[Louisvillekid1]

Hey guys

missed y’all

[JBEX]

Hey guys

missed y’all

good to see you around kid and hopefully all is well

[JBEX]

hey str

canterbury

R8 #2 you split tens (8-1) 9:40

thought you'd find this one interesting ..he gets in without a tag to oc12.5n1x..the race 3 back would probably win this..that's the difference in class of tracks lol..a beaten claimers there vs this level here..had to break from extreme posts last 2 including a sloppy track
route race last out..been claimed 5x last 10 outs and one of the better lesser known midwest claiming trainers has him now..he's having a great meet and jocks done well early on a 46.2 bullet works 9 days ago

[str]

Hey guys

missed y’all

My man !

Always a pleasure.

[str]

hey str

canterbury

R8 #2 you split tens (8-1) 9:40

thought you'd find this one interesting ..he gets in without a tag to oc12.5n1x..the race 3 back would probably win this..that's the difference in class of tracks lol..a beaten claimers there vs this level here..had to break from extreme posts last 2 including a sloppy track
route race last out..been claimed 5x last 10 outs and one of the better lesser known midwest claiming trainers has him now..he's having a great meet and jocks done well early on a 46.2 bullet works 9 days ago

I'm good with it.

Horse and trainer both good on the turn back.

Only thing I hate is the last work. What the hell were they thinking. I would have been livid. The horse didn't need that.

Other than that, the horse is a solid old boy.

And I think I've heard of that trainer before. Was he around back in the day I wonder? Name rings a bell.

[JBEX]

I'm good with it.

Horse and trainer both good on the turn back.

Only thing I hate is the last work. What the hell were they thinking. I would have been livid. The horse didn't need that.

Other than that, the horse is a solid old boy.

And I think I've heard of that trainer before. Was he around back in the day I wonder? Name rings a bell.

I framed the work as a good thing but should have known you wouldn't feel the same way lol..hopefully that won't take too much out of him


here's the trainer's profile..interesting how he kind of dipped his toe in the water 94-96 and then started again in 2004 and has had a great career

https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=40298&rbt=TB

[JBEX]

wonder if that work might have had something to do with him battling on the front end..didn't see him doing that in here

[str]

wonder if that work might have had something to do with him battling on the front end..didn't see him doing that in here

I'm sure it did.

Fast works can be a positive but not for old claiming war horses who do not do that and all the sudden they do. I hated it as soon as I saw it.

BTW, I know that trainers name from somewhere. Just not sure where. Looked at his record but it didn't ring any bells.

[JBEX]

I'm sure it did.

Fast works can be a positive but not for old claiming war horses who do not do that and all the sudden they do. I hated it as soon as I saw it.

BTW, I know that trainers name from somewhere. Just not sure where. Looked at his record but it didn't ring any bells.

good to know applies more to those types..thanks

[JBEX]

churchill

R5 #4 lady mila (8-1)


have one more I think is interesting

churchill has a night card so plenty of time..this horse is expensive,speed pedigree (top,bottom)and was bet very well first out..asmussen great with these types
roi wise especially factoring how well known he is..my thought was didn't do much at all first out and really hasn't asked for much from her in the morning..makes me think she didn't need it and was just conditioned for the race..got her experience and may show a lot more here..debut will get you a little more of a price ..might be sloppy later on but that wouldn't be a negative to me if she goes

[str]

churchill

R5 #4 lady mila (8-1)


have one more I think is interesting

churchill has a night card so plenty of time..this horse is expensive,speed pedigree (top,bottom)and was bet very well first out..asmussen great with these types
roi wise especially factoring how well known he is..my thought was didn't do much at all first out and really hasn't asked for much from her in the morning..makes me think she didn't need it and was just conditioned for the race..got her experience and may show a lot more here..debut will get you a little more of a price ..might be sloppy later on but that wouldn't be a negative to me if she goes

Sorry I didn't answer this in time. Came on around 7pm but the race had already run.

Sometimes, a horse is just not a fast work horse. In this case, I see slower works but I did see a fast gate work. Almost assuredly she was in company for that and having broke from the gate before, knew what was going on , which tells you that when geared up she can show more but when in control she won't flash a fast number in the morning. As long as she can run in the afternoon, that is fine.
She was probably in company in those works off the pole as well but they were controlled in all probability. It might make some sense that she was not all fired up for her 1st race mainly because she was not sure what was going on. This time, having a race under her belt, she knew what was going on and was more prepared mentally prior to running.
Seems like that was it because she ran very well and was in control throughout.
Nice find JBEX !

[JBEX]

Sorry I didn't answer this in time. Came on around 7pm but the race had already run.

Sometimes, a horse is just not a fast work horse. In this case, I see slower works but I did see a fast gate work. Almost assuredly she was in company for that and having broke from the gate before, knew what was going on , which tells you that when geared up she can show more but when in control she won't flash a fast number in the morning. As long as she can run in the afternoon, that is fine.
She was probably in company in those works off the pole as well but they were controlled in all probability. It might make some sense that she was not all fired up for her 1st race mainly because she was not sure what was going on. This time, having a race under her belt, she knew what was going on and was more prepared mentally prior to running.
Seems like that was it because she ran very well and was in control throughout.
Nice find JBEX !

thanks str..I always prefer modest to slow works on these 2yo maidens just to camouflage things a bit and as you said there are reasons they can work slow..this one was very cold on the board early but took a ton of late action..got the job done us what counts..asmussen had one at belmont earlier in the day ($550k yearling)that won by a bunch but only a 3 horse field..sure he'll have quite a few good ones by years end

[JBEX]

hey str

let me first say that this is a bit of venting lol over what I feel was a bad call I made in a msw today (winner paid $36)

2 homebred first time starters with solid steady works..sires are veterans and without know exactly what crop they're at I'd say both approaching the middle of their stallion career..both trainers above avg and can hit with a firster (by stats)

my main focus though is on the sires

$40 k /19% first out
$15k / 14% first out

believe of sires with a decent sample size 19% is tops..14% I'm sure you would agree is above avg..also factoring that his progeny run vs top company as there may be a really cheap sire or two who hit that mark vs much lesser company

but I thought afterwards;man that $25k difference isn't for nothing..then add in the high rate he brings home firsters and there really is a serious difference in the horses he's going to turn out vs the $15k..no question when they put a stud fee on a stallion a lot is taken into consideration and it's not just some arbitrary amount..do you agree the talent gap in the progeny of these two is probably very significant

[str]

hey str

let me first say that this is a bit of venting lol over what I feel was a bad call I made in a msw today (winner paid $36)

2 homebred first time starters with solid steady works..sires are veterans and without know exactly what crop they're at I'd say both approaching the middle of their stallion career..both trainers above avg and can hit with a firster (by stats)

my main focus though is on the sires

$40 k /19% first out
$15k / 14% first out

believe of sires with a decent sample size 19% is tops..14% I'm sure you would agree is above avg..also factoring that his progeny run vs top company as there may be a really cheap sire or two who hit that mark vs much lesser company

but I thought afterwards;man that $25k difference isn't for nothing..then add in the high rate he brings home firsters and there really is a serious difference in the horses he's going to turn out vs the $15k..no question when they put a stud fee on a stallion a lot is taken into consideration and it's not just some arbitrary amount..do you agree the talent gap in the progeny of these two is probably very significant

I do not think that I could blanketly agree that the gap of price in the progeny is probably very significant. Maybe it could be somewhat significant and I guess you consider it, but I would not lean on it. Why? Because I think I would want to make that determination as I saw each instance and not a blanket statement.

If both of these are homebreds, I would need to take into account who the breeders were. That is because maybe 15K is actually more monetary risk and value to the owner of that horse than 40k is to the other owner. Because we are dealing with people, we need to look inside those numbers and see what it actually represents. That might be impossible if we are living where we live and the race is in Minnesota or Texas. If so, we would probably have no clue. But if this had happened in Md., and I was all over the game like I used to be, I would have knowledge of all those factors and a determination as to who to bet, while still somewhat of a guess, would be a much more educated one than if they were people I did not know. But without that tool, and most people would not be in a position to have that, it might be best to stop short of that theory.

The ages of the broodmares might also come into play, not necessarily for the production, although it could, but the amount spent on the stallion. Again, that determination would come from the breeder and we just do not know exactly what they were thinking when the decision was made to spend that amount of money or not.

Another question might be, what was the stud fee 3 years earlier when they had to pay it? Was the 40k horse only 15k back then or was the 15 horse only 5k back then? I don't think we know that do we?

Let me ask you because I do not know anymore but when they show the stud fees, are those numbers updated annually or are they the amounts actually paid several years ago? I would assume annually and I am pretty sure that was the way it was when it was first introduced to the form, only because there are so many foals each year I would assume it would be real tough to have an accurate line on what each owner paid dating back to when the payment actually occurred. And taking it a step further, deals are struck all the time with Stallion owners for pricing. Maybe that owner that went to the 40k stallion only actually paid 20k because the coverings were lacking in April of that year when a deal was struck. Or maybe the deal was they go to that stud for 2 years and they flip a coin to see who retains ownership of foal 1 and 2 prior to the birth and the owner of the mare pays no fee at all but basically trades a foal for a stud fee.

Or the trainer that received a free share for life because he trained the stallion when it ran, sold his booking that year to someone he knew at a reduced rate.

This kind of stuff does happen in that business. And because it does, it can become so complicated that it overloads your brain with all this stuff.

So I think you have to think in terms of " all things being equal" but by doing so, not take it to the actual monetary motive of each breeder.

Instead, just rely, like you do, on the effectiveness of the stallion with firsters, watching the patterns you watch and stay with that. I think that trying to guess the motives of each breeders thought process will drive you crazy. Mainly I guess because plenty of breeders ARE crazy. Lol. And you will go nuts trying to figure out people , some of which ARE nuts.
Hope that makes sense and feel free to follow up if I confused the issue further than it already was.
Also, nice call on that race even though it might not have worked out. Sounds like you were all over it but ultimately went the wrong way with the final choice.

[JBEX]

I do not think that I could blanketly agree that the gap of price in the progeny is probably very significant. Maybe it could be somewhat significant and I guess you consider it, but I would not lean on it. Why? Because I think I would want to make that determination as I saw each instance and not a blanket statement.

If both of these are homebreds, I would need to take into account who the breeders were. That is because maybe 15K is actually more monetary risk and value to the owner of that horse than 40k is to the other owner. Because we are dealing with people, we need to look inside those numbers and see what it actually represents. That might be impossible if we are living where we live and the race is in Minnesota or Texas. If so, we would probably have no clue. But if this had happened in Md., and I was all over the game like I used to be, I would have knowledge of all those factors and a determination as to who to bet, while still somewhat of a guess, would be a much more educated one than if they were people I did not know. But without that tool, and most people would not be in a position to have that, it might be best to stop short of that theory.

The ages of the broodmares might also come into play, not necessarily for the production, although it could, but the amount spent on the stallion. Again, that determination would come from the breeder and we just do not know exactly what they were thinking when the decision was made to spend that amount of money or not.

Another question might be, what was the stud fee 3 years earlier when they had to pay it? Was the 40k horse only 15k back then or was the 15 horse only 5k back then? I don't think we know that do we?

Let me ask you because I do not know anymore but when they show the stud fees, are those numbers updated annually or are they the amounts actually paid several years ago? I would assume annually and I am pretty sure that was the way it was when it was first introduced to the form, only because there are so many foals each year I would assume it would be real tough to have an accurate line on what each owner paid dating back to when the payment actually occurred. And taking it a step further, deals are struck all the time with Stallion owners for pricing. Maybe that owner that went to the 40k stallion only actually paid 20k because the coverings were lacking in April of that year when a deal was struck. Or maybe the deal was they go to that stud for 2 years and they flip a coin to see who retains ownership of foal 1 and 2 prior to the birth and the owner of the mare pays no fee at all but basically trades a foal for a stud fee.

Or the trainer that received a free share for life because he trained the stallion when it ran, sold his booking that year to someone he knew at a reduced rate.

This kind of stuff does happen in that business. And because it does, it can become so complicated that it overloads your brain with all this stuff.

So I think you have to think in terms of " all things being equal" but by doing so, not take it to the actual monetary motive of each breeder.

Instead, just rely, like you do, on the effectiveness of the stallion with firsters, watching the patterns you watch and stay with that. I think that trying to guess the motives of each breeders thought process will drive you crazy. Mainly I guess because plenty of breeders ARE crazy. Lol. And you will go nuts trying to figure out people , some of which ARE nuts.
Hope that makes sense and feel free to follow up if I confused the issue further than it already was.
Also, nice call on that race even though it might not have worked out. Sounds like you were all over it but ultimately went the wrong way with the final choice.

i do factor in the dam info based on the stats given in the brisnets..I felt with the horse I took the dam info made up a bit for the less expensive/lower 1st out stallion but the 19% er's dam info wasn't so bad..just kind of hurts when you let a firster from the top debut stallion go by at 17-1 lol..I feel I erred in judgement and I get it's easy to say after the fact..I will carry it forward and sure a similar situation will present it itself along the way.. when it does the other horse will probably win..that's this game in a nutshell lol


the stud fees they show in the brisnets are current..if it's a maiden (bought at auction) it will show towards the right (where the awd,surface,pedigree info is) what the stud fee paid was..obviously time for that to move from what the breeder paid to what it currently is

since my horse was a homebred the stud fee they paid isn't there..I think it's also possible that only if it's changed for an auctioned horse will it show up in the pedigree info by the other stats ..this is something I really should know and embarrassed to say I don't..will definitely look into it over the next few days


I'm sure you would agree over a 2-3 year span the fee will usually change at least a little


thanks str

[str]

i do factor in the dam info based on the stats given in the brisnets..I felt with the horse I took the dam info made up a bit for the less expensive/lower 1st out stallion but the 19% er's dam info wasn't so bad..just kind of hurts when you let a firster from the top debut stallion go by at 17-1 lol..I feel I erred in judgement and I get it's easy to say after the fact..I will carry it forward and sure a similar situation will present it itself along the way.. when it does the other horse will probably win..that's this game in a nutshell lol


the stud fees they show in the brisnets are current..if it's a maiden (bought at auction) it will show towards the right (where the awd,surface,pedigree info is) what the stud fee paid was..obviously time for that to move from what the breeder paid to what it currently is

since my horse was a homebred the stud fee they paid isn't there..I think it's also possible that only if it's changed for an auctioned horse will it show up in the pedigree info by the other stats ..this is something I really should know and embarrassed to say I don't..will definitely look into it over the next few days


I'm sure you would agree over a 2-3 year span the fee will usually change at least a little


thanks str

They sure do. And that was my point about what was actually spent at the time of the coverings. Between that and the true dollar value to each individual breeder, it is really hard to put all that together.

With hind sight being 20-20 could a viable option on playing that race have been spreading with both horses. I guess it's kind of like hedging but the payouts are high enough that it could be considered. Again, easy to say after the race.
Still a great call either way on your part. You deserved to make some money on that race.

[JBEX]

They sure do. And that was my point about what was actually spent at the time of the coverings. Between that and the true dollar value to each individual breeder, it is really hard to put all that together.

With hind sight being 20-20 could a viable option on playing that race have been spreading with both horses. I guess it's kind of like hedging but the payouts are high enough that it could be considered. Again, easy to say after the race.
Still a great call either way on your part. You deserved to make some money on that race.

with the rules of how I can play that thread if there's a 2nd horse it can only be a $2 win bet ($8 max/race)..so the option was there to play the other..something about hitting a longie playing only one but you're leaving yourself open to this every once in a while..when you win you're usually not thinking I could've played the other..it's just you made the right call lol

[JBEX]

hey str

delaware

R7 #9 golden spear (6-1)

thought you might find this interesting ..first let me state that this trainer is a terrible investment overall but especially 2nd off a layoff..get that over with lol..

the horse I find interesting off the repeat pattern..just missed 2nd off the layoff (makes up for trainer imo)
that was within a day of today's (31,32 days) on sept 9..also went beaten claimer 25k at saratoga to open 12.5
at parx (possibly a little lesser spot ?)
..today pimilico open $12.5 last to
today's delaware 16k n3l or n1y (last june)..have to think the former is a tougher ..figure run was very solid..also feel the running lines
(you know I'm into that) were very similar..if you get a chance see what you think ..otherwise it's a writeup lol

[str]

hey str

delaware

R7 #9 golden spear (6-1)

thought you might find this interesting ..first let me state that this trainer is a terrible investment overall but especially 2nd off a layoff..get that over with lol..

the horse I find interesting off the repeat pattern..just missed 2nd off the layoff (makes up for trainer imo)
that was within a day of today's (31,32 days) on sept 9..also went beaten claimer 25k at saratoga to open 12.5
at parx (possibly a little lesser spot ?)
..today pimilico open $12.5 last to
today's delaware 16k n3l or n1y (last june)..have to think the former is a tougher ..figure run was very solid..also feel the running lines
(you know I'm into that) were very similar..if you get a chance see what you think ..otherwise it's a writeup lol

Without knowing the exact race, typically the open 12,500 would be tougher than a beaten 16k. Totally agree.

Always like to see a horse that shows you that a certain pattern works like 2nd off the lay for this horse.

Also always really like an 8 win horse running against multiple nw/3's. I'll take that all day.

All in all, I think the pick makes a lot of sense. I love finding favorable patterns in the pp's that fit the horse and this one does.

The only thing I see that does not equate IMO, and it would not get me off that horse but I would be questioning it, is the high Beyer. I don't believe it. That day was Black Eyed Susan day.

Pimlico's turf course was extremely fast for this years Preakness two day event as was the track. And most years it is that way on those days. Especially the first race of the day on the turf.

With no time to cut the turf course prior to Preakness day, the grass is cut the shortest it would ever be cut all year on that evening before Black Eyed Susan day every year. ( A little home field knowledge ).That along with dry conditions made for the higher number IMO. But still a lot to like. There are a couple others in there that seem capable but again, your horse has that 2nd off the lay angle that works more than it doesn't when shown to work previously.
Good luck if you play JBEX.

[JBEX]

Without knowing the exact race, typically the open 12,500 would be tougher than a beaten 16k. Totally agree.

Always like to see a horse that shows you that a certain pattern works like 2nd off the lay for this horse.

Also always really like an 8 win horse running against multiple nw/3's. I'll take that all day.

All in all, I think the pick makes a lot of sense. I love finding favorable patterns in the pp's that fit the horse and this one does.

The only thing I see that does not equate IMO, and it would not get me off that horse but I would be questioning it, is the high Beyer. I don't believe it. That day was Black Eyed Susan day.

Pimlico's turf course was extremely fast for this years Preakness two day event as was the track. And most years it is that way on those days. Especially the first race of the day on the turf.

With no time to cut the turf course prior to Preakness day, the grass is cut the shortest it would ever be cut all year on that evening before Black Eyed Susan day every year. ( A little home field knowledge ).That along with dry conditions made for the higher number IMO. But still a lot to like. There are a couple others in there that seem capable but again, your horse has that 2nd off the lay angle that works more than it doesn't when shown to work previously.
Good luck if you play JBEX.

couple of good extra points you added in..about being a little suspect of the figure because of the day it was run and being a multiple winner vs many who make it in on the n3l condition ..if he won the other 2nd off race he wouldn't even be eligible for this..thanks for the feedback str

[JBEX]

indiana downs


R5 #1 seminole justice (3-1)


hey str

just thought you'd find this interesting (another addition lol)

look how good this trainer is 3rd off the layoff ..trying route for the first time at a track where the rail is real good to place to be for that..looks nicely set up to stretch out don't you think ? also the works leading up should have him fit.. like the classy dam sire in a race vs Indiana breds

no big deal if you don't see in time..a write-up instead

[str]

indiana downs


R5 #1 seminole justice (3-1)


hey str

just thought you'd find this interesting (another addition lol)

look how good this trainer is 3rd off the layoff ..trying route for the first time at a track where the rail is real good to place to be for that..looks nicely set up to stretch out don't you think ? also the works leading up should have him fit.. like the classy dam sire in a race vs Indiana breds

no big deal if you don't see in time..a write-up instead

What a crazy race this one is.

Darn near everyone wants to show speed. Nobody really bred to run late. I see two that could. With that said, the pace could be very lively early.
Your pick has the 3rd off the layoff going for it with that trainer. Rail is great there. But the race does have several early speeds.
I wonder if this horse can sit 3rd early? If it can finish at all that should be enough.
The 3 horse closes but he just broke his maiden. That's not the best scenario to have. The 4 can close but looks a little cheap.
The 2 seems to be able to close but is not at all bred for that. That trainer is solid 3rd off the lay also.
The rider of the 1 and the 4 last time is on the 4 this time. Don't know if he had a choice or not.
If it were me I might consider taking a swing at the 4 at 6-1. He did win off the stretch out last time he did it but how do you go against 27% wins with the rail horses there.? What's up with that percentage?

I do see what you saw and cannot argue what you said. I just wish the race would have come up a little lighter on the early speeds. Lol.
Good luck JBEX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: when you get a chance the horse in question is called Hizeem. He ran at Assiniboia Downs last night race 4. you can find the PP's thru Into Mischief. Can you make any sense on what they are doing with this horse after being claimed from Chad Brown about 3 years ago. He won a MSW 85K at the SPA and was DQ to first in an 80K optional claimer. both on the turf. got good figures. Now after a 2 year break they are running him on dirt with no success. can't figure out what they are thinking maybe you can shed some light. thx in advance.

[str]

Hey STR: when you get a chance the horse in question is called Hizeem. He ran at Assiniboia Downs last night race 4. you can find the PP's thru Into Mischief. Can you make any sense on what they are doing with this horse after being claimed from Chad Brown about 3 years ago. He won a MSW 85K at the SPA and was DQ to first in an 80K optional claimer. both on the turf. got good figures. Now after a 2 year break they are running him on dirt with no success. can't figure out what they are thinking maybe you can shed some light. thx in advance.

Well, I'll try and be kind and act like I understand what he is doing.
Let's assume this trainer is a speed trainer that needs races to get horses fit. The work pattern suggests that as do the selections of races. Also, his record indicates that he runs a lot of sprinters and he is 23% with sprinters. So that's a good thing.
He did go 7/8ths so he is progressing towards going long I assume.
That said, does this place have a turf course? I sure hope so for the horses sake. Or one nearby. It's obviously what he needs. He is getting very little out of these dirt races.
If he shows up around two turns on the turf next out, that would be good. But more dirt sprints would make no sense so it seems.
Stick him on a watch list and keep me posted EZ.
Thanks for dropping by.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Well, I'll try and be kind and act like I understand what he is doing.
Let's assume this trainer is a speed trainer that needs races to get horses fit. The work pattern suggests that as do the selections of races. Also, his record indicates that he runs a lot of sprinters and he is 23% with sprinters. So that's a good thing.
He did go 7/8ths so he is progressing towards going long I assume.
That said, does this place have a turf course? I sure hope so for the horses sake. Or one nearby. It's obviously what he needs. He is getting very little out of these dirt races.
If he shows up around two turns on the turf next out, that would be good. But more dirt sprints would make no sense so it seems.
Stick him on a watch list and keep me posted EZ.
Thanks for dropping by.

OK STR thx. no turf racing at ASD. What you say makes some sense. but still a head scratcher. will be on the look out for him if they move him back to the turf.

[JBEX]

What a crazy race this one is.

Darn near everyone wants to show speed. Nobody really bred to run late. I see two that could. With that said, the pace could be very lively early.
Your pick has the 3rd off the layoff going for it with that trainer. Rail is great there. But the race does have several early speeds.
I wonder if this horse can sit 3rd early? If it can finish at all that should be enough.
The 3 horse closes but he just broke his maiden. That's not the best scenario to have. The 4 can close but looks a little cheap.
The 2 seems to be able to close but is not at all bred for that. That trainer is solid 3rd off the lay also.
The rider of the 1 and the 4 last time is on the 4 this time. Don't know if he had a choice or not.
If it were me I might consider taking a swing at the 4 at 6-1. He did win off the stretch out last time he did it but how do you go against 27% wins with the rail horses there.? What's up with that percentage?

I do see what you saw and cannot argue what you said. I just wish the race would have come up a little lighter on the early speeds. Lol.
Good luck JBEX.

thanks str

I see what you're saying about the pace and probably have to lay off of it to have a shot..maybe withe new trainer (since the layoff) and recent running lines he's got him able to relax a bit..with the 2 seems like getting him off the poly
has made a big difference..razor probably a sprint statebred sire but makes up for it with class and stamina with lure as the dam sire..what a runner he was in the day..
maybe a slight negative that the jock chose the 4 instead of mine unless the trainer made that decision..he has had success with this jockey in the recent past..4 would be my secondary choice also and take note of what you said of winning on the stretch out before..the route race he did win was faster than the pace pars for this level even though it was cheaper company.. maybe based on his race 2 back he can lay a little off the pace..lots going on..we will see