Horse racing is as over-analyzed a field as you will find. The main reason I love the literature is that it is loaded with good ideas that can be translated to other sports. And then there is the strange idea that I might, somehow, be able to transfer my understanding of other sports to the sport of kings.
So how does a rookie go about attacking this field? The first priority for me was simplification. Too many people know too much about this field. If I was to find any edge I needed an immediate and powerful filter. I lucked out. All thoroughbreds are out!
What?!
No thoroughbreds. Because their races aren't about pure speed. Because a lot of strategy gets mixed in. And because I may be able to predict some strategy for a football or basketball game, but none whatsoever for a three year old horse based on a few past performances.
The races I'm interested in are very short bursts of speed: quarter horse races. These babies fly! And it just so happens that my local track has a lot of them. Did I mention that quarter horse past performances show the exact time, to 1000th of a second, run by each horse? Thoroughbred racing forms only give the time for the winner, and how many lengths behind the winner each horse finished. Sweeten the pot some more, baby.
I followed the simple advice from what I had read. Calculate speed numbers, and make sure that the odds for the race will make a bet profitable. One sink hole in horse racing is that many experts can pick winners, but end up losing, because they play the wrong odds. In this area the tote board can present some challenges, because it lights up like a pinball machine in the minutes before the race. One of my horses started out 17-1, then dropped to 6-1, before locking in at 10-1.
Doing the numbers, I had gotten the right kind of separation for the first race. Three horses were clearly faster than the rest of the field, and they did not include the favorite! I bet an exacta box 5-6-7.
From the betting window I stepped outside for a first impression of my home track. Whoa! Beautiful setting in a valley with mountains in the back. Everything sharp and clean. Sunny with scattered clouds. Fast track and wind light. Lot of Mexicans.
The first race is just 250 yards. And almost turned into a fiasco. Two horses, while getting in the gate, threw off their jockeys and went off on their own private race. In the wrong direction! Halfway across the track! Plenty of laughter in the stands. But I was not amused. Number 7 was one of the two. The other horse ended up scratching, so I was lucky to still have my horse, but would 7 have enough energy?
The buildup to the race is so feverish that the start is almost anti-climatic. For a second, the world turns to slow motion. No sound. Then all hell breaks loose. The favorite #9 burst out of the gate for the early lead. Number 7 was closing in, and was that number 5 with a late burst at the end? Took all of 13 seconds. JJ couldn't f*ck that fast. Photo finish!
Official result: 5-7-9. My exacta hit! 5 was 4 to 1 and 7 was 10 to 1, so payout was pretty good.
An hour later I bet one more race, which included a couple of horses in their first start. No past performances, so no speed numbers. Needless to say, one of the first time starters destroyed the field. Oh well, beginner's luck...
I was out of there faster than Lebron James after a playoff elimination. Good first day. The summer experiment continues. Already can't wait to be ... back at the track! (music kicks in)
So how does a rookie go about attacking this field? The first priority for me was simplification. Too many people know too much about this field. If I was to find any edge I needed an immediate and powerful filter. I lucked out. All thoroughbreds are out!
What?!
No thoroughbreds. Because their races aren't about pure speed. Because a lot of strategy gets mixed in. And because I may be able to predict some strategy for a football or basketball game, but none whatsoever for a three year old horse based on a few past performances.
The races I'm interested in are very short bursts of speed: quarter horse races. These babies fly! And it just so happens that my local track has a lot of them. Did I mention that quarter horse past performances show the exact time, to 1000th of a second, run by each horse? Thoroughbred racing forms only give the time for the winner, and how many lengths behind the winner each horse finished. Sweeten the pot some more, baby.
I followed the simple advice from what I had read. Calculate speed numbers, and make sure that the odds for the race will make a bet profitable. One sink hole in horse racing is that many experts can pick winners, but end up losing, because they play the wrong odds. In this area the tote board can present some challenges, because it lights up like a pinball machine in the minutes before the race. One of my horses started out 17-1, then dropped to 6-1, before locking in at 10-1.
Doing the numbers, I had gotten the right kind of separation for the first race. Three horses were clearly faster than the rest of the field, and they did not include the favorite! I bet an exacta box 5-6-7.
From the betting window I stepped outside for a first impression of my home track. Whoa! Beautiful setting in a valley with mountains in the back. Everything sharp and clean. Sunny with scattered clouds. Fast track and wind light. Lot of Mexicans.
The first race is just 250 yards. And almost turned into a fiasco. Two horses, while getting in the gate, threw off their jockeys and went off on their own private race. In the wrong direction! Halfway across the track! Plenty of laughter in the stands. But I was not amused. Number 7 was one of the two. The other horse ended up scratching, so I was lucky to still have my horse, but would 7 have enough energy?
The buildup to the race is so feverish that the start is almost anti-climatic. For a second, the world turns to slow motion. No sound. Then all hell breaks loose. The favorite #9 burst out of the gate for the early lead. Number 7 was closing in, and was that number 5 with a late burst at the end? Took all of 13 seconds. JJ couldn't f*ck that fast. Photo finish!
Official result: 5-7-9. My exacta hit! 5 was 4 to 1 and 7 was 10 to 1, so payout was pretty good.
An hour later I bet one more race, which included a couple of horses in their first start. No past performances, so no speed numbers. Needless to say, one of the first time starters destroyed the field. Oh well, beginner's luck...
I was out of there faster than Lebron James after a playoff elimination. Good first day. The summer experiment continues. Already can't wait to be ... back at the track! (music kicks in)
Wise or not, this has produced some fantastic literature. May it never be matched by the rest of sports betting books. 
