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cashed huge on the under tonight with 11 games...
thank you 1-0 games
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you do know the last time there was 11 games (11/12) there was 61 goals scored
so far days with a total of 8 or more games, the under woulda lost on:
11/15 with 9 games (50 goals scored) 49.5 as the total
11/12 as mentioned above
11/10 with 8 games (51 goals scored) 44.5 as the total
11/8 with 9 games (53 goals scored) 49.5 as the total
11/5 with 11 games (70 goals scored) 58 as the total
the only day this month that had 8 or more games that won was 11/3 which had 10 games with 47 goals
so im not sold yet on taking the under on every day that has 8 or more games
and i wouldn't say missing it by 4 goals was a "never had a chance" thing to say considering the first couples games started out shittyComment -
and in october you woulda had a record of 5-4 taking the under in days that had 8 or more games. and a monthly total of 14-12 taking under in EVERY game
and a 5-12 recored taking only under in every game so far this month.Comment -
Viper anyway I can get in touch with you now when the other forum is gone?
TCComment -
viper any play for today and when do you usually post your picks?thanks.Comment -
i made almost 2k taking the UNDER on those games last year alone and am up this year as well...
you have to compare to the actual grand salami number, not just assumming it's 5.5 x number of total games...for years the salami has been inflated and averages over 5.5 per game...so the salami under is hitting way more often than you think.
i've been doing this religiously guys...take it for what it is...i'm gonna keep pounding the under until the books finally start releasing lower salami linesComment -
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so no picks for tonight?Comment -
my facts are correct bud.....based on my book which is 5dimes. congrats on playing at a book that has a higher number. keep pounding it if its working. but again, 5dimes is averaging 5.5 goals per game (like tonight with 3 games and 16.5 goals) so my numbers are correct for this month and probably the season so far.Comment -
Viper PM you email addy. I can PM u cause I have less than 20 posts.Comment -
quite a few games are 5, and you see 6's occasionally too.Originally posted by statsmachineComment -
take a look here
that guy confirms with me this month the salami is 3-4 this month not 2-5....you're ASSUMING the salami is 5.5 times total num of games...it's not bro...each night it varies...and the books pretty much have the same salami number everywhere on the planet. it's a rare bet and doesn't move much...
im using the ACTUAL salami number that i record every day. i have 5dimes, betUS, and 2 locals...it's the same dude.Comment -
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i can give you screenshots of my bets, that's how you know the number. i know what the salami is every day. sometimes its exactly 5.5 sometimes its not. it varies based on the matchups. it's not a computer based number that's spit out....the linesmakers set it around the sum of the totals of all games....
why are you telling me my record when you're assuming and averaging? i'm telling you what my record is cuz i bet it each time. you don't...what is your deal?
by the SAME i mean, local and online books...it's the same number each night between the books on a given day. you dont get linemovement really with the salami cuz like i said its a rare bet and there's not much action that piles on to one sideComment -
then tell me how your boy who you linked to early has numbers that are about 1-1.5 goals off of what vegasinsider has?
11/5 skyscraper has a total of 59.5 whereas VI has a number of 58.
11/12 skyscraper has a total of 61.5 and VI has 60
and my deal is when you come in here and spout off saying the the under is AUTOMATIC for days that have more then 8 games. im just showing you numbers here recently that show otherwiseComment -
again, when i brought this subject up it was 7-3-1 just this year after being around 67% last year. had a bad week of 3 straight losses when there were 9,10 or 11 goals scored in some games. that won't keep up
you are working with too small of a sample size of data. i've been doing this for over a year. it's hitting an astronomically high hit rate. it's an automatic under. my numbers match that guys...i have no clue where VI is pulling them from but they certainly are way off from all the local and online books i check daily.
just take the under with us and make money. that's what we're here for.Comment -
the reasoning is that if you have a really high scoring game of 8+ goals per game, that means those extra goals have to be made up by other games going under...the more games on the schedule, the more chances you have to make up for that big game. extremely low scoring games are much more frequent than extremely high scoring games with the way the game has evolved now a days.Originally posted by statsmachine
if there's only a few games on the board...then even a 7 goal game and ruin the UNDER...Comment -
what i'd like to see is a frequency graph of goals per game. i believe the huge majority of the cluster would be games that go under 5.5 goals...with a small amount of outliers around 8,9,10 goals per game..
so my thinking is that since it's so much more frequent to have lower and in particular EXTREMELY lower scoring games like 1-0 and 2-1...that the more games on the schedule would give a greater probability to make up for an extreme game that goes way over 5.5 goals on any given day.
last year it certainly proved right because i got burned a lot taking salami unders on days with fewer than 8 games. i came up with 8 arbitrarily so maybe changing that gives an even better chance to the salami. i dont know
last year it was golden and it looks really good so far this year other than the 3 straight losses last week when there was an abundance of scoring. this week its looking more back to usual. we'll see what happens tonight!Comment -
not arguing here, just wanted to bring up that the total goals at 5dimes today is 66.5 which is again pretty damn close to an average of 5.5 goals. even though there are 2 games with a total of 5 it still comes out very close to 5.5/game.Comment -
no one here ever disagreed with you. my point was that it can be a goal or so difference from exactly 5.5 ...and there have been many wins and losses in the past year by a half goal. so that makes a difference in the record as well. im seeing my local as 66 on the dot which is exactly 5.5..but getting juiced to the over. for some reason today there's a lot of action on the salami. probably cuz it's the biggest board in a while.
i'm gonna stick with my under. hey it may lose as a lot of the public is on the over...but the salami under has won 2 of the last 3 and the only loss was by a half goal. so i think the bad streak a couple weeks ago may be in the past.Comment -
piper you not posting plays on here anymore?Comment -
Salami today?Comment -
Wednesday November 22nd, 2011
Pittsburgh Penguins Regulation -115 5 Units
Philly Flyers Regulation +105 2 UnitsComment -
salami under has been doin well again on big boards...took it big today againComment
