Unlike most sports, the NHL provides the greatest potential for upsets. Major League Baseball and the NFL generally see the best teams win but in hockey surprises are always abound. The parity in the league as a result of the salary cap as well as the tendency for teams to be streaky ensures that a team will never be as good or as bad as they have played in the past. Consequently it's quite normal to see #8 teams defeat #1 teams since often the #1 teams enter the playoffs cold while the #8 teams enter with momentum.
In the playoffs #6 and #5 teams have been successful half the time the last 4 years.
The key to winning playoffs is clear. First a team has to come in with momentum. Teams that enter the playoffs on a long slump are almost always eliminated right away whereas hot teams (regardless of their ranking) usually carry the momentum into the playoffs. Furthermore, goaltending is paramount. While the San Jose Sharks entered the playoffs with the best record the last 2 years, Evgeni Nabokov struggled in net and the team consequently lost the first 2 rounds. On the other hand hot goaltending with lesser teams can move them a long way. Just like defense wins NFL playoff games, goaltending is key in hockey playoffs. Lastly one needs to look at head to head results. If a team is successful against another team it almost always shows in the playoffs.
One important thing to note is that unlike most other sports, home ice advantage means little. In basketball home court is worth around 6-8 points and in the NFL home field is generally worth 4-6 points. In hockey road teams win almost as much as home teams and in some cases teams actually perform better on the road. With that in mind here's the analysis of the 2010 first round playoffs.
Washington vs. Montreal
On paper this series looks like a blowout. Washington enters the playoffs with the best record in the league and only lost 1 game in regulation time in their last 10. The team has the best player in the league (Alexander Ovechkin) and a great supporting cast with Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, Mike Green and others. The one questionable spot for the Capitals is goaltending as Jose Theodore can be suspect in net. Mind you Semyon Varlamov if healthy is a solid backup.
Montreal enters the playoffs ice cold winning only 3 of the last 10 games, giving up a mammoth amount of goals over that period and showing real defensive problems. A solid start to the season is the only reason they were able to hold on to the last playoff spot. The return of Mike Cammalleri from injury is significant although the team lacks the offensive punch that Washington displays. Furthermore Montreal's goaltending is even more suspect than Washington's. Carey Price was supposed to be the next superstar but lacklustre play all year landed Jaroslav Halak the top job. Mind you Montreal still isn't sure if they'll play Halak or Price. While Halak has looked good much of the year and in fact helped Slovakia make it to the bronze medal playoff game at the Olympics, he tapered off of late and has no playoff experience.
The teams played each other 4 times this year with each team winning 2 games and no game being decided by more than 2 goals.
Prediction: The momentum heading into the playoff clearly favours Washington and unless Halak or Price can stand on their head look for Washington to win in 5 games.
New Jersey vs. Philadelphia :
New Jersey which was expected to struggle in 2009-2010 played solid all year winning the #2 spot while Philadelphia, which was expected to be among the best teams had to beat the NY Rangers in the final game to make it into the playoffs. Both teams struggled with injuries although New Jersey was hurt more as Patrik Elias missed much of the early season. New Jersey ended the year 5-2-3 in their last 10 while Philadelphia finished up 4-5-1 including the shootout winner to defeat the Rangers. On paper the teams match up quite well offensively. Philadelphia has Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, Daniel Briere and others while New Jersey has Elias, Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac and Ilya Kovalchuk who was acquired at the trade deadline. The biggest difference between the teams is goaltending. Martin Brodeur, the best goalie for years, is playing for New Jersey while Philadelphia has alternated between Brian Boucher and Michael Leighton after Ray Emery was injured early in the year. Boucher is expected to start since Leighton has been injured himself. Mind you, while Brodeur has shown signs of brilliance this year he has struggled at other times. Prior to the Olympics Brodeur was letting in up to 4 goals per game and in fact played so poor in the Olympics he was pulled for Roberto Luongo.
The teams played 6 times in the 2009-2010 season and Philadelphia won 5 of the games by a combined 20-13 score. In the last game Brodeur was pulled as the Flyers won by a 5-1 margin.
Prediction: The first game will be a tell tale sign of how the series will go. If Brodeur is at the top of his game the Devils will win but if he struggles an upset is possible. Brodeur struggled against Philadelphia all year and my hunch is it will continue in the playoffs. Look for Philadelphia to pull off the upset in 6 or 7 games.
In the playoffs #6 and #5 teams have been successful half the time the last 4 years.
The key to winning playoffs is clear. First a team has to come in with momentum. Teams that enter the playoffs on a long slump are almost always eliminated right away whereas hot teams (regardless of their ranking) usually carry the momentum into the playoffs. Furthermore, goaltending is paramount. While the San Jose Sharks entered the playoffs with the best record the last 2 years, Evgeni Nabokov struggled in net and the team consequently lost the first 2 rounds. On the other hand hot goaltending with lesser teams can move them a long way. Just like defense wins NFL playoff games, goaltending is key in hockey playoffs. Lastly one needs to look at head to head results. If a team is successful against another team it almost always shows in the playoffs.
One important thing to note is that unlike most other sports, home ice advantage means little. In basketball home court is worth around 6-8 points and in the NFL home field is generally worth 4-6 points. In hockey road teams win almost as much as home teams and in some cases teams actually perform better on the road. With that in mind here's the analysis of the 2010 first round playoffs.
Washington vs. Montreal
On paper this series looks like a blowout. Washington enters the playoffs with the best record in the league and only lost 1 game in regulation time in their last 10. The team has the best player in the league (Alexander Ovechkin) and a great supporting cast with Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, Mike Green and others. The one questionable spot for the Capitals is goaltending as Jose Theodore can be suspect in net. Mind you Semyon Varlamov if healthy is a solid backup.
Montreal enters the playoffs ice cold winning only 3 of the last 10 games, giving up a mammoth amount of goals over that period and showing real defensive problems. A solid start to the season is the only reason they were able to hold on to the last playoff spot. The return of Mike Cammalleri from injury is significant although the team lacks the offensive punch that Washington displays. Furthermore Montreal's goaltending is even more suspect than Washington's. Carey Price was supposed to be the next superstar but lacklustre play all year landed Jaroslav Halak the top job. Mind you Montreal still isn't sure if they'll play Halak or Price. While Halak has looked good much of the year and in fact helped Slovakia make it to the bronze medal playoff game at the Olympics, he tapered off of late and has no playoff experience.
The teams played each other 4 times this year with each team winning 2 games and no game being decided by more than 2 goals.
Prediction: The momentum heading into the playoff clearly favours Washington and unless Halak or Price can stand on their head look for Washington to win in 5 games.
New Jersey vs. Philadelphia :
New Jersey which was expected to struggle in 2009-2010 played solid all year winning the #2 spot while Philadelphia, which was expected to be among the best teams had to beat the NY Rangers in the final game to make it into the playoffs. Both teams struggled with injuries although New Jersey was hurt more as Patrik Elias missed much of the early season. New Jersey ended the year 5-2-3 in their last 10 while Philadelphia finished up 4-5-1 including the shootout winner to defeat the Rangers. On paper the teams match up quite well offensively. Philadelphia has Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, Daniel Briere and others while New Jersey has Elias, Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac and Ilya Kovalchuk who was acquired at the trade deadline. The biggest difference between the teams is goaltending. Martin Brodeur, the best goalie for years, is playing for New Jersey while Philadelphia has alternated between Brian Boucher and Michael Leighton after Ray Emery was injured early in the year. Boucher is expected to start since Leighton has been injured himself. Mind you, while Brodeur has shown signs of brilliance this year he has struggled at other times. Prior to the Olympics Brodeur was letting in up to 4 goals per game and in fact played so poor in the Olympics he was pulled for Roberto Luongo.
The teams played 6 times in the 2009-2010 season and Philadelphia won 5 of the games by a combined 20-13 score. In the last game Brodeur was pulled as the Flyers won by a 5-1 margin.
Prediction: The first game will be a tell tale sign of how the series will go. If Brodeur is at the top of his game the Devils will win but if he struggles an upset is possible. Brodeur struggled against Philadelphia all year and my hunch is it will continue in the playoffs. Look for Philadelphia to pull off the upset in 6 or 7 games.