One of the enigmas of the NHL this year surely has to be the Philadelphia Flyers.
After signing Chris Pronger and Ray Emery in the offseason they were widely considered a Stanley Cup contender. So far this year they have been a severe disappointment in light of those expectaions. How should they be approached from a handicapping perspective from here on out?
Their roster is arguably a top 5 one in the NHL, just from a personel standpoint. They have many studs, from Richards to Carter to Gagne to Pronger to Brierre. Giroux and Van Riemsdyk are about as talented a couple young players as you will find on any team in the NHL and the future looks bright with them. When healthy, on any given night they have the potential to blow the doors off of just about any team in the NHL with so many skill players.
The defense has been shaky, at best. After you get past Pronger on D there just isn't that much there and they just don't play that well together. Matt Carle has had a great season so far offensively, but defensively many times ia a liability. Kimmo Timonen is pretty solid. Coburn is getting better.
In net, as usual, there are question marks, but what Philly fan isn't used to that. Philly said goodbye to the tandem of Marty Biron and Nittymakki. I personally liked that tandem a lot better than relying on Ray Emery to continue form that he (re)found in umm...Russia. Backup Boucher can be spectacular for short periods of time but there's no way he can be relied on as an elite starter if something happens to Emery. Leighton has been hot since they signed him off waivers but his upside is only so high he was on waivers for a reason.
The one aspect of this Philly team that shines is their power play unit. Currently ranked #3 in the league, they are among the most feared units in the game. Capable of taking over any given game, this unit will continue to shine the rest of the way. The unfortunate flip side of this coin is that their penalty killing is very average and they are as known for unnecessary penalties as any team in the game.
For coaching we had the widely publicized firing of Scott Stevens which I thought was way, way premature. He has had them playing well the last couple years and unrightfully looked at with scorn because hated rival Pittsburgh has ended Philly's season the last 2 seasons. The problem there does not lie on Philly's coach, it lies in going up against a team that bottom line is as tough as any in the NHL, and short of signing a true stud goalie Philly is just not going to take that team out anytime soon. Peter Laviolette came in to take over after Stevens was terminated, and, citing his "no-fighting" policy he has entertained with other teams, seems like quite and odd choice to coach the orange and black.
So, how should Philly be approached from a handicapping standpoint. My thinking is this - stay away versus the better teams (for instance tonight's game vs Washington) definitely stay away because they aren't consistant enough in so many departments to play with these teams on any kind of consistantant basis. On the flip side of the coin, with a roster as loaded as theirs and the explosiveness they can provide at times give the goals, stay away from the money lines. The bottom line is that they are going to win less 1 goal games than most teams and mor 5-2, 6-3 games. Since they are so skilled and came in with such high expectations the books are going to charge you an arm and a leg for the money lines, and this is the kind of team that can win 7-2 one night and get blanked 4-0 the next (see Fiday night's stinker vs. Toronto for an example). The money lines will just kill you with this kind of team.
So, stay away or fade against the elite teams, and give the goals versus the average to below average teams.
Now, how should they be approached for the playoffs? Well, time will tell. First off they have to play their way into the playoffs to begin with...easier said than done but I think they will get in as a low seed, anywhere form an 8 to a 6. They are going to be a feared matchup for a Washington, Pittsburgh or Buffalo, but they will be one and done and in my opinion be headed for an offseason of massive change. Their power play unit can take over a game yes, but not a series. So, if Philly gets into the playoffs, load up on the series price of their opponent.
Best of luck fellas.
-Steve
After signing Chris Pronger and Ray Emery in the offseason they were widely considered a Stanley Cup contender. So far this year they have been a severe disappointment in light of those expectaions. How should they be approached from a handicapping perspective from here on out?
Their roster is arguably a top 5 one in the NHL, just from a personel standpoint. They have many studs, from Richards to Carter to Gagne to Pronger to Brierre. Giroux and Van Riemsdyk are about as talented a couple young players as you will find on any team in the NHL and the future looks bright with them. When healthy, on any given night they have the potential to blow the doors off of just about any team in the NHL with so many skill players.
The defense has been shaky, at best. After you get past Pronger on D there just isn't that much there and they just don't play that well together. Matt Carle has had a great season so far offensively, but defensively many times ia a liability. Kimmo Timonen is pretty solid. Coburn is getting better.
In net, as usual, there are question marks, but what Philly fan isn't used to that. Philly said goodbye to the tandem of Marty Biron and Nittymakki. I personally liked that tandem a lot better than relying on Ray Emery to continue form that he (re)found in umm...Russia. Backup Boucher can be spectacular for short periods of time but there's no way he can be relied on as an elite starter if something happens to Emery. Leighton has been hot since they signed him off waivers but his upside is only so high he was on waivers for a reason.
The one aspect of this Philly team that shines is their power play unit. Currently ranked #3 in the league, they are among the most feared units in the game. Capable of taking over any given game, this unit will continue to shine the rest of the way. The unfortunate flip side of this coin is that their penalty killing is very average and they are as known for unnecessary penalties as any team in the game.
For coaching we had the widely publicized firing of Scott Stevens which I thought was way, way premature. He has had them playing well the last couple years and unrightfully looked at with scorn because hated rival Pittsburgh has ended Philly's season the last 2 seasons. The problem there does not lie on Philly's coach, it lies in going up against a team that bottom line is as tough as any in the NHL, and short of signing a true stud goalie Philly is just not going to take that team out anytime soon. Peter Laviolette came in to take over after Stevens was terminated, and, citing his "no-fighting" policy he has entertained with other teams, seems like quite and odd choice to coach the orange and black.
So, how should Philly be approached from a handicapping standpoint. My thinking is this - stay away versus the better teams (for instance tonight's game vs Washington) definitely stay away because they aren't consistant enough in so many departments to play with these teams on any kind of consistantant basis. On the flip side of the coin, with a roster as loaded as theirs and the explosiveness they can provide at times give the goals, stay away from the money lines. The bottom line is that they are going to win less 1 goal games than most teams and mor 5-2, 6-3 games. Since they are so skilled and came in with such high expectations the books are going to charge you an arm and a leg for the money lines, and this is the kind of team that can win 7-2 one night and get blanked 4-0 the next (see Fiday night's stinker vs. Toronto for an example). The money lines will just kill you with this kind of team.
So, stay away or fade against the elite teams, and give the goals versus the average to below average teams.
Now, how should they be approached for the playoffs? Well, time will tell. First off they have to play their way into the playoffs to begin with...easier said than done but I think they will get in as a low seed, anywhere form an 8 to a 6. They are going to be a feared matchup for a Washington, Pittsburgh or Buffalo, but they will be one and done and in my opinion be headed for an offseason of massive change. Their power play unit can take over a game yes, but not a series. So, if Philly gets into the playoffs, load up on the series price of their opponent.
Best of luck fellas.
-Steve