SERIOUS QUESTION: Are we doing ourselves a disservice by posting systems?

[Panekkkk]

Clearly this site has a fairly wide-reaching audience. It seems that we are doing ourselves a great disservice by posting systems (e.g., chase systems, etc.). Guys like JM just come in and pick these systems up, blowing up their popularity, and then the books catch wind and just adjust their lines (e.g., PL's in NHL this year are getting out-of-hand).

Is there really a value to posting systems or should we be going about this in a different way?

For we all know, SBR could be picking our best systems and forwarding them to books (and I'm not suggesting this is occurring in any way, just giving an example of how frail such public forums are).

[suicidekings]

In the summer, a certain daily baseball system definitely saw the effects of discussion in the MLB forum as prices on the particular prop rose drastically, reducing the overall effectiveness of the system. I've heard the same thing has happened for JM plays, with the books increasing the vig on certain JM games in the interest of cutting their losses. Each of these systems were more profitable before the rate increase, as it made the losses sting more.

So I would say yes, to an extent, however any system that becomes profitable on a regular basis will ultimately be identified and line corrections will be made. Posting details publicly just accelerates the process.

[Panekkkk]

Yes, the baseball system was a perfect example. The thing is, nowadays books are making the adjustments almost immediately (one must assume that they read these forums daily). So, it's not just "accelerating the process" it's effectively killing any system before it can be used.

[Dfjay9]

People like TheShark have the right idea. Post system plays, show it works just don't tell us how it works.

[suicidekings]

People like TheShark have the right idea. Post system plays, show it works just don't tell us how it works.

Most successful systems exploit some weakness in an existing prop for a particular sport, so showing the plays is essentially the same as telling all.

Anyone that's looking for an edge would be better off learning the basics about how to create fair lines for matchups. The game data is readily available online and the excel knowledge required is minimal to produce rough lines. The Thinktank has everything you need to get started on modelling.

[TodaysAction]

Clearly this site has a fairly wide-reaching audience. It seems that we are doing ourselves a great disservice by posting systems (e.g., chase systems, etc.). Guys like JM just come in and pick these systems up, blowing up their popularity, and then the books catch wind and just adjust their lines (e.g., PL's in NHL this year are getting out-of-hand).

Is there really a value to posting systems or should we be going about this in a different way?

For we all know, SBR could be picking our best systems and forwarding them to books (and I'm not suggesting this is occurring in any way, just giving an example of how frail such public forums are).

Good topic.

Simply answer is no - unless you are such an attention whore and have no life needing to feel validated from strangers on-line - but the more serious answer, in my opinion, is why would anyone want to to ruin a good thing by openly discussing it? As you know from Two Minutes From Roughing, I use a system and have never made mention of the specifics of how it works and won't. You also know, I don't post every single wager I make on the day, opting only for certain ones to be posted.

[Panekkkk]

Good topic.

Simply answer is no - unless you are such an attention whore and have no life needing to feel validated from strangers on-line - but the more serious answer, in my opinion, is why would anyone want to to ruin a good thing by openly discussing it? As you know from Two Minutes From Roughing, I use a system and have never made mention of the specifics of how it works and won't. You also know, I don't post every single wager I make on the day, opting only for certain ones to be posted.

I am somewhat conflicted. I too have developed a great many systems this year for MLB, none of which I have openly discussed. However, I have also learned a lot from people sharing and posting their systems/plays.

[TodaysAction]

I am somewhat conflicted. I too have developed a great many systems this year for MLB, none of which I have openly discussed. However, I have also learned a lot from people sharing and posting their systems/plays.

I get that and the fine tuning they can do but I know the threads are read by "certain" people but know the more open it is, the harder it will be to succeed. If you want to discuss it off board, I'm at yahoo dot com and let you know what I think.

[Panekkkk]

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[egr99]

It's not a good thing... but some mutual cooperation does help sometimes... There only so much they can do with standard spreads, ie. +1.5 / -1.5 ... Juice is juice and it hurts but doesn't alter the outcome of a game... NFL/NBA point spreads are more vulnerable and can influence outcomes much easier...

egr99