Betting NHL totals early in the season
Fans who love offense and bettors who love to see scores go over the total are really enjoying themselves in the early going of the 2009-10 NHL season. During the first 25 games on the schedule, lamps were lighted 157 times, or 6.28 per contest. Unlike previous seasons when changes to the rules were implemented to increase scoring, the added offense so far is a product of good offense and poor goaltending.
You need goals? We got goals.
We’re not even a week into the 2009-10 NHL regular season, and goal judges are already developing carpal tunnel syndrome from lighting the red lamp 157 times in 25 games. That’s 6.28 goals per game – including three winning “goals” from games that were decided in a shootout. Those final scores add up like regular games as far as the betting odds are concerned. Heading into Tuesday’s action, the over was rolling in dough at 15-10.
How long will it take for the market to adjust? Not long. Last year, the over got off to a 15-12-1 start and kept accelerating to 45-30-2 after two weeks of action, before slowing down and finishing off the month of October at 77-67-4. The year before, it was the under checking in at 19-12-1, then 41-35-6 and 79-75-15. These numbers are from across the entire league. You won’t find too many bettors laying wood on every single game, but it’s useful to look at the overall trends to get a better picture of how players and coaches are adapting to the new season.
The league itself has placed a bigger emphasis on goal scoring ever since the 2004-05 lockout. Commissioner Gary Bettman and the NHL brass aren’t afraid to tweak the rulebook in order to make the game more exciting; the shootout made its debut in 2005-06, and as of last year, a team that commits icing isn’t allowed to put fresh players on the ice during the stoppage in play. Sadly, there aren’t any significant rule changes for handicappers to exploit this year.
But we’re still experiencing a glut of vulcanized rubber. A combination of high scoring and poor goaltending is ideal for cashing in the over – as the Atlanta Thrashers proved last year with the over at 50-30-2. Oft-injured Kari Lehtonen (.911 save percentage in 2008-09) is once again on the shelf with a back injury, leaving Ondrej Pavelec (.880 SV%) between the pipes for Atlanta’s season opener, a 6-3 victory against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The total for that game was six. Pavelec is a promising young goalie going into his second year, so he can be expected to improve. However, Johan Hedberg (.886 SV%) will be his backup as long as Lehtonen is unavailable, which should be another few weeks.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are among the four teams to start the 2009-10 season with the over at 2-0. They had the right over formula last year at 44-35-3, scoring 244 goals (No. 10 in the NHL, not including shootouts) and giving up 286 (worst in the 30-team league). They’re off to a rolling start with last year’s prime culprit, goaltender Vesa Toskala, allowing seven goals on 35 shots. It’s almost a given Toronto will make the switch to Jonas Gustavsson, who spent the last seven seasons playing in his native Sweden before signing with the Leafs in the offseason.
Gustavsson got thrown into the fire last Saturday, replacing Toskala in the second period of Toronto’s 6-4 loss to the Washington Capitals – the highest scoring team out of the chute with 10 goals in two games. Alex Ovechkin (the league’s top goal scorer the past two years) and linemate Brooks Laich each have three goals, which would put them on pace for 123 goals apiece. Such are the wonders of small sample sizes. The Caps might not keep scoring five goals per game – nobody’s done that since Wayne Gretzky’s Edmonton Oilers 24 years ago – but they’ll find a way to put the puck in the net. The problem for over bettors is that goalie Semyon Varlamov (.918 SV%) will likely continue to keep stopping pucks in his first full season.
If you’re a fan of low-scoring, defensive hockey, you’re probably a fan of the Minnesota Wild. They led the league last year by taking the under to a 41-29-2 record. Although there’s been a sea change in management, including the replacement of coach Jacques Lemaire with Todd Richards, the Wild looked pretty much the same on the ice in their 2-1 season opening loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s a scrappy bunch of checkers and penalty killers in front of premium goalie Niklas Backstrom (.923 SV%), another Euro veteran who has excelled in the smaller NHL rinks. Too bad he’s not allowed to cross center ice and join the attack.
Fans who love offense and bettors who love to see scores go over the total are really enjoying themselves in the early going of the 2009-10 NHL season. During the first 25 games on the schedule, lamps were lighted 157 times, or 6.28 per contest. Unlike previous seasons when changes to the rules were implemented to increase scoring, the added offense so far is a product of good offense and poor goaltending.
You need goals? We got goals.
We’re not even a week into the 2009-10 NHL regular season, and goal judges are already developing carpal tunnel syndrome from lighting the red lamp 157 times in 25 games. That’s 6.28 goals per game – including three winning “goals” from games that were decided in a shootout. Those final scores add up like regular games as far as the betting odds are concerned. Heading into Tuesday’s action, the over was rolling in dough at 15-10.
How long will it take for the market to adjust? Not long. Last year, the over got off to a 15-12-1 start and kept accelerating to 45-30-2 after two weeks of action, before slowing down and finishing off the month of October at 77-67-4. The year before, it was the under checking in at 19-12-1, then 41-35-6 and 79-75-15. These numbers are from across the entire league. You won’t find too many bettors laying wood on every single game, but it’s useful to look at the overall trends to get a better picture of how players and coaches are adapting to the new season.
The league itself has placed a bigger emphasis on goal scoring ever since the 2004-05 lockout. Commissioner Gary Bettman and the NHL brass aren’t afraid to tweak the rulebook in order to make the game more exciting; the shootout made its debut in 2005-06, and as of last year, a team that commits icing isn’t allowed to put fresh players on the ice during the stoppage in play. Sadly, there aren’t any significant rule changes for handicappers to exploit this year.
But we’re still experiencing a glut of vulcanized rubber. A combination of high scoring and poor goaltending is ideal for cashing in the over – as the Atlanta Thrashers proved last year with the over at 50-30-2. Oft-injured Kari Lehtonen (.911 save percentage in 2008-09) is once again on the shelf with a back injury, leaving Ondrej Pavelec (.880 SV%) between the pipes for Atlanta’s season opener, a 6-3 victory against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The total for that game was six. Pavelec is a promising young goalie going into his second year, so he can be expected to improve. However, Johan Hedberg (.886 SV%) will be his backup as long as Lehtonen is unavailable, which should be another few weeks.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are among the four teams to start the 2009-10 season with the over at 2-0. They had the right over formula last year at 44-35-3, scoring 244 goals (No. 10 in the NHL, not including shootouts) and giving up 286 (worst in the 30-team league). They’re off to a rolling start with last year’s prime culprit, goaltender Vesa Toskala, allowing seven goals on 35 shots. It’s almost a given Toronto will make the switch to Jonas Gustavsson, who spent the last seven seasons playing in his native Sweden before signing with the Leafs in the offseason.
Gustavsson got thrown into the fire last Saturday, replacing Toskala in the second period of Toronto’s 6-4 loss to the Washington Capitals – the highest scoring team out of the chute with 10 goals in two games. Alex Ovechkin (the league’s top goal scorer the past two years) and linemate Brooks Laich each have three goals, which would put them on pace for 123 goals apiece. Such are the wonders of small sample sizes. The Caps might not keep scoring five goals per game – nobody’s done that since Wayne Gretzky’s Edmonton Oilers 24 years ago – but they’ll find a way to put the puck in the net. The problem for over bettors is that goalie Semyon Varlamov (.918 SV%) will likely continue to keep stopping pucks in his first full season.
If you’re a fan of low-scoring, defensive hockey, you’re probably a fan of the Minnesota Wild. They led the league last year by taking the under to a 41-29-2 record. Although there’s been a sea change in management, including the replacement of coach Jacques Lemaire with Todd Richards, the Wild looked pretty much the same on the ice in their 2-1 season opening loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s a scrappy bunch of checkers and penalty killers in front of premium goalie Niklas Backstrom (.923 SV%), another Euro veteran who has excelled in the smaller NHL rinks. Too bad he’s not allowed to cross center ice and join the attack.