Playoff, Stanley Cup chances for six streaking teams
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With the trade deadline looming on Feb. 25, there are a handful of teams that have made a mad rush back into the playoff race by catching fire since the start of 2019.
The question facing each team: Should it believe in its recent hot streak or be cautious about letting a few good weeks influence decisions down the stretch?
Let's have a look at six clubs that have jumped up in the standings since Jan. 1 and whether they should be considered Cup contenders, fringe playoff teams or flashes in the pan.
Note: Stats via Natural Stat Trick, Corsica Hockey and Hockey Reference
San Jose Sharks
Record since Jan. 1: 12-3-0
The case for the Sharks: Over the past month and a half, the Sharks have finally reached their full potential as an offensive juggernaut. They have scored 3.78 goals per 60 minutes at even strength, which is best in the NHL since Jan. 1 by a country mile. The next-best team produces 3.17 even-strength goals per 60. The hot streak has moved the Sharks up to the No. 3 even-strength scoring team this season behind only Toronto and Tampa Bay.
San Jose's stars have been shining lately. Since the start of 2019, Evander Kane has 15 goals in 16 games, including six two-goal games, while Tomas Hertl has 12 goals, Brent Burns has 23 points and Joe Pavelski has 17 points.
The crazy part about San Jose's hot streak: Erik Karlsson has missed eight games. With Karlsson in the lineup, the Sharks are the deepest and most dangerous scoring team in the Western Conference.
The case against the Sharks:While they are blowing the doors off the competition offensively, defense and goaltending have remained an issue for the Sharks. They sit 18th in goals allowed per 60 minutes and 23rd in even-strength save percentage since Jan. 1. Starting goalie Martin Jones has an overall save percentage under .900 and is giving the Sharks quality starts in only 45 percent of his games. It isn't easy to reach the Cup Final without great goaltending.
Verdict: The Sharks are a top Cup contender.
If San Jose plays anywhere close to this well offensively, they have a decent chance to run through a Western Conference that has flawed teams at the top. A trade for a veteran goalie to help shore up the nets would be wise.
Carolina Hurricanes
Record since Jan. 1: 12-4-1
The case for the Canes: Over the past six weeks, Carolina has been dominant on both sides of the puck. They have finally turned their positive shot differential into offensive production, scoring 48 even-strength goals since Jan. 1, which is tied for most with the Sharks, and the Canes have the third-best even-strength goal differential during that time span. They have also tacked on 13 power-play goals, the sixth most during that span.
It's been rare over the past decade that Carolina has been in go-for-it mode in mid-February, but the addition of Nino Niederreiter in a deal with Minnesota has given the team a boost. Since being acquired in a deal for Victor Rask, the veteran winger has six goals and four assists in 11 games. And most important, he has filled a gaping hole at left wing.
With a deep lineup and improved goaltending, Carolina has a shot at stealing away a wild-card spot from Columbus or Pittsburgh.
The case against the Canes: The bigger sample on Carolina is concerning. For the full season, they rank 20th in even-strength scoring rate, just behind the lowly New Jersey Devils. Niederreiter isn't the type of player who can carry an offense consistently. After all, he has produced only one 50-point season in his career. The Canes are also relying heavily on Curtis McElhinney (14-6-1 with a .917 save percentage) to provide them with strong goaltending. He's a 35-year-old journeyman with a .909 career save percentage. There's a decent chance he fades down the stretch and Carolina simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up, save for another big trade.
Verdict: Carolina can win a wild-card spot.
They may regress from this blazing hot streak, but Columbus is only three points ahead, and there's a chance the Jackets continue to slide and decide to trade top scorer Artemi Panarin. It may take the Canes acquiring another scorer to get over the hump.
New York Islanders
Record since Jan. 1: 11-3-2
The case for the Isles: Defense, defense, defense.
The Islanders have undergone a remarkable turnaround from last season. In 2017-18, they ranked second-to-last in even-strength goals allowed per 60 minutes. This season, they are No. 1 in the NHL in that category. The last month-plus has seen the Isles play downright incredible defense, giving up the fifth-fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes and just 1.56 goals against per 60 (No. 1 in the NHL). Barry Trotz's goalie tandem of Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss has combined for a .928 all-situations save percentage.
The recent stretch of suffocating defense has pushed the Islanders to the top of the Metropolitan Division, and it appears only a slip in goaltending can bring them down.
The case against the Isles: The margin of error for the Islanders is thin. They rank 24th in shot attempts per 60 minutes and 26th in goals scored per 60 minutes at even strength since Jan. 1. Mathew Barzal has produced a solid 48 points in 56 games, but he's one of only two players with more than 40 points. It may be difficult to win without explosive offense in a league that is coming out of another dead puck era. The last three Cup winners have ranked fifth, first and seventh in goals per 60.
Verdict: The Islanders can hold on to the division, but they are a long shot for a Cup run.
The impact Trotz has made on the Islanders is impressive. They may be in position to swing a big deadline deal for a scorer, but they have a lot of ground to make up in order to reach the top offensive teams.
St. Louis Blues
Record since Jan. 1: 11-4-1
The case for the Blues: On Jan. 1, the Blues sat in last place in the Western Conference; they now hold a wild-card position. Over the past six weeks, they have the fourth-best Corsi for percentage in the NHL (54.0) and the best goals for percentage (61.8 percent), along with the fifth-best even-strength goal-scoring rate, No. 1 shot suppression rate and a .933 even-strength save percentage.
The astonishing turnaround has been fueled by a coaching change from Mike Yeo (7-9-3) to Craig Berube(21-13-2) along with the outstanding goaltending work of Jordan Binnington, who has gone 10-1-1 with a .927 save percentage. Neither of the team's previous netminders, Jake Allen and Chad Johnson, cleared a .900 save percentage. Star scorer Vladimir Tarasenko has played much more like himself since the calendar turned to 2019, scoring 22 points in 17 games.
With the offseason addition of Ryan O'Reilly, who leads the team in scoring and has a 57.7 faceoff percentage, the Blues expected to be at the top of the West. They may be finally playing like themselves.
The case against the Blues: Over the years, we have seen plenty of goaltenders get hot over stretches but fail to sustain that excellence over the long road to the Cup Final; Ottawa's Andrew Hammond comes to mind as a recent example. And while the top two scorers, Tarasenko and O'Reilly, have performed exceptionally, the Blues have only two other players with more than 30 points. They may lack the offensive firepower to sustain their current level of production.
Verdict: St. Louis has a legitimate chance to make a run to the Stanley Cup Final.
Goaltending will be a question mark, but the Blues' defensive play has likely been at the center of Binnington's success. Since Jan. 1, St. Louis is giving up 7.9 high-danger shots per 60 minutes at even strength, No. 1 in the NHL, and producing the second-most high-danger chances. They've shown they can win in different ways, and that ability tends to do a team well in the postseason.
Philadelphia Flyers
Record since Jan. 1: 10-4-2
The case for the Flyers: Much like the Blues, the Flyers' season opened with disastrous goaltending. They ran through six other goalies before landing on Carter Hart, who has gone 18-11-6 with a .924 save percentage. During Philadelphia's hot streak, the team has an outstanding .933 even-strength save percentage.
Goalie play isn't the only struggling area the Flyers turned around. They were at the bottom of the league in the power play department until the past six weeks. Since Jan. 1, Philly has produced 16 power-play goals, second in the NHL. Sean Couturier's recent play has also been at the center of the team's improvement. After a slow start to the season, he has come alive with 22 points in 19 games while playing nearly 22 minutes per game.
The case against the Flyers: On the whole, Philadelphia hasn't played great hockey since the start of 2019. Instead, they have been dragged to victory by hot goaltending and power-play success, both of which are questionable to last. They are 27th in Corsi for percentage since Jan. 1, 26th in goals scored per 60 and have a minus-4 goal differential. The Flyers are also producing the fourth-fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes.
Verdict: The Flyers will narrowly miss the playoffs.
Philadelphia would hardly be the only team to make the postseason on the back of goaltending and special teams, but the teams ahead of them are simply stronger all-around clubs.
Montreal Canadiens
Record since Jan. 1: 10-4-3
The case for the Canadiens: Montreal was never a terrible team; it just didn't get the type of goaltending early in the season that one would expect from Carey Price. Since Jan. 1, it has. The Habs' star goalie has a .941 save percentage since the start of 2019, and the Canadiens are giving up just 1.65 goals per 60 minutes at even strength. To boost their case, Montreal has done an excellent job at controlling play, with a 54.2 Corsi for percentage.
Turns out picking up other teams' former top picks has been a good idea. Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin have combined for 26 points in the recent 16-game stretch to lead the Canadiens in scoring.
The case against the Canadiens: Despite the efforts of the two young scorers, Montreal simply isn't that dangerous offensively. Since Jan. 1, the Habs have produced only 2.28 goals per 60 minutes, which ranks 22nd in the NHL.
Verdict: A near-lock for the playoffs, but a deep run would be surprising.
Claude Julien has an ability to scheme his way into deep playoff runs, but this group just doesn't have the horses to contend with the front-runners in the Eastern Conference.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
With the trade deadline looming on Feb. 25, there are a handful of teams that have made a mad rush back into the playoff race by catching fire since the start of 2019.
The question facing each team: Should it believe in its recent hot streak or be cautious about letting a few good weeks influence decisions down the stretch?
Let's have a look at six clubs that have jumped up in the standings since Jan. 1 and whether they should be considered Cup contenders, fringe playoff teams or flashes in the pan.
Note: Stats via Natural Stat Trick, Corsica Hockey and Hockey Reference
San Jose SharksRecord since Jan. 1: 12-3-0
The case for the Sharks: Over the past month and a half, the Sharks have finally reached their full potential as an offensive juggernaut. They have scored 3.78 goals per 60 minutes at even strength, which is best in the NHL since Jan. 1 by a country mile. The next-best team produces 3.17 even-strength goals per 60. The hot streak has moved the Sharks up to the No. 3 even-strength scoring team this season behind only Toronto and Tampa Bay.
San Jose's stars have been shining lately. Since the start of 2019, Evander Kane has 15 goals in 16 games, including six two-goal games, while Tomas Hertl has 12 goals, Brent Burns has 23 points and Joe Pavelski has 17 points.
The crazy part about San Jose's hot streak: Erik Karlsson has missed eight games. With Karlsson in the lineup, the Sharks are the deepest and most dangerous scoring team in the Western Conference.
The case against the Sharks:While they are blowing the doors off the competition offensively, defense and goaltending have remained an issue for the Sharks. They sit 18th in goals allowed per 60 minutes and 23rd in even-strength save percentage since Jan. 1. Starting goalie Martin Jones has an overall save percentage under .900 and is giving the Sharks quality starts in only 45 percent of his games. It isn't easy to reach the Cup Final without great goaltending.
Verdict: The Sharks are a top Cup contender.
If San Jose plays anywhere close to this well offensively, they have a decent chance to run through a Western Conference that has flawed teams at the top. A trade for a veteran goalie to help shore up the nets would be wise.
Carolina Hurricanes
Record since Jan. 1: 12-4-1
The case for the Canes: Over the past six weeks, Carolina has been dominant on both sides of the puck. They have finally turned their positive shot differential into offensive production, scoring 48 even-strength goals since Jan. 1, which is tied for most with the Sharks, and the Canes have the third-best even-strength goal differential during that time span. They have also tacked on 13 power-play goals, the sixth most during that span.
It's been rare over the past decade that Carolina has been in go-for-it mode in mid-February, but the addition of Nino Niederreiter in a deal with Minnesota has given the team a boost. Since being acquired in a deal for Victor Rask, the veteran winger has six goals and four assists in 11 games. And most important, he has filled a gaping hole at left wing.
With a deep lineup and improved goaltending, Carolina has a shot at stealing away a wild-card spot from Columbus or Pittsburgh.
The case against the Canes: The bigger sample on Carolina is concerning. For the full season, they rank 20th in even-strength scoring rate, just behind the lowly New Jersey Devils. Niederreiter isn't the type of player who can carry an offense consistently. After all, he has produced only one 50-point season in his career. The Canes are also relying heavily on Curtis McElhinney (14-6-1 with a .917 save percentage) to provide them with strong goaltending. He's a 35-year-old journeyman with a .909 career save percentage. There's a decent chance he fades down the stretch and Carolina simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up, save for another big trade.
Verdict: Carolina can win a wild-card spot.
They may regress from this blazing hot streak, but Columbus is only three points ahead, and there's a chance the Jackets continue to slide and decide to trade top scorer Artemi Panarin. It may take the Canes acquiring another scorer to get over the hump.
New York Islanders
Record since Jan. 1: 11-3-2
The case for the Isles: Defense, defense, defense.
The Islanders have undergone a remarkable turnaround from last season. In 2017-18, they ranked second-to-last in even-strength goals allowed per 60 minutes. This season, they are No. 1 in the NHL in that category. The last month-plus has seen the Isles play downright incredible defense, giving up the fifth-fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes and just 1.56 goals against per 60 (No. 1 in the NHL). Barry Trotz's goalie tandem of Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss has combined for a .928 all-situations save percentage.
The recent stretch of suffocating defense has pushed the Islanders to the top of the Metropolitan Division, and it appears only a slip in goaltending can bring them down.
The case against the Isles: The margin of error for the Islanders is thin. They rank 24th in shot attempts per 60 minutes and 26th in goals scored per 60 minutes at even strength since Jan. 1. Mathew Barzal has produced a solid 48 points in 56 games, but he's one of only two players with more than 40 points. It may be difficult to win without explosive offense in a league that is coming out of another dead puck era. The last three Cup winners have ranked fifth, first and seventh in goals per 60.
Verdict: The Islanders can hold on to the division, but they are a long shot for a Cup run.
The impact Trotz has made on the Islanders is impressive. They may be in position to swing a big deadline deal for a scorer, but they have a lot of ground to make up in order to reach the top offensive teams.
St. Louis Blues
Record since Jan. 1: 11-4-1
The case for the Blues: On Jan. 1, the Blues sat in last place in the Western Conference; they now hold a wild-card position. Over the past six weeks, they have the fourth-best Corsi for percentage in the NHL (54.0) and the best goals for percentage (61.8 percent), along with the fifth-best even-strength goal-scoring rate, No. 1 shot suppression rate and a .933 even-strength save percentage.
The astonishing turnaround has been fueled by a coaching change from Mike Yeo (7-9-3) to Craig Berube(21-13-2) along with the outstanding goaltending work of Jordan Binnington, who has gone 10-1-1 with a .927 save percentage. Neither of the team's previous netminders, Jake Allen and Chad Johnson, cleared a .900 save percentage. Star scorer Vladimir Tarasenko has played much more like himself since the calendar turned to 2019, scoring 22 points in 17 games.
With the offseason addition of Ryan O'Reilly, who leads the team in scoring and has a 57.7 faceoff percentage, the Blues expected to be at the top of the West. They may be finally playing like themselves.
The case against the Blues: Over the years, we have seen plenty of goaltenders get hot over stretches but fail to sustain that excellence over the long road to the Cup Final; Ottawa's Andrew Hammond comes to mind as a recent example. And while the top two scorers, Tarasenko and O'Reilly, have performed exceptionally, the Blues have only two other players with more than 30 points. They may lack the offensive firepower to sustain their current level of production.
Verdict: St. Louis has a legitimate chance to make a run to the Stanley Cup Final.
Goaltending will be a question mark, but the Blues' defensive play has likely been at the center of Binnington's success. Since Jan. 1, St. Louis is giving up 7.9 high-danger shots per 60 minutes at even strength, No. 1 in the NHL, and producing the second-most high-danger chances. They've shown they can win in different ways, and that ability tends to do a team well in the postseason.
Philadelphia Flyers
Record since Jan. 1: 10-4-2
The case for the Flyers: Much like the Blues, the Flyers' season opened with disastrous goaltending. They ran through six other goalies before landing on Carter Hart, who has gone 18-11-6 with a .924 save percentage. During Philadelphia's hot streak, the team has an outstanding .933 even-strength save percentage.
Goalie play isn't the only struggling area the Flyers turned around. They were at the bottom of the league in the power play department until the past six weeks. Since Jan. 1, Philly has produced 16 power-play goals, second in the NHL. Sean Couturier's recent play has also been at the center of the team's improvement. After a slow start to the season, he has come alive with 22 points in 19 games while playing nearly 22 minutes per game.
The case against the Flyers: On the whole, Philadelphia hasn't played great hockey since the start of 2019. Instead, they have been dragged to victory by hot goaltending and power-play success, both of which are questionable to last. They are 27th in Corsi for percentage since Jan. 1, 26th in goals scored per 60 and have a minus-4 goal differential. The Flyers are also producing the fourth-fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes.
Verdict: The Flyers will narrowly miss the playoffs.
Philadelphia would hardly be the only team to make the postseason on the back of goaltending and special teams, but the teams ahead of them are simply stronger all-around clubs.
Montreal Canadiens
Record since Jan. 1: 10-4-3
The case for the Canadiens: Montreal was never a terrible team; it just didn't get the type of goaltending early in the season that one would expect from Carey Price. Since Jan. 1, it has. The Habs' star goalie has a .941 save percentage since the start of 2019, and the Canadiens are giving up just 1.65 goals per 60 minutes at even strength. To boost their case, Montreal has done an excellent job at controlling play, with a 54.2 Corsi for percentage.
Turns out picking up other teams' former top picks has been a good idea. Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin have combined for 26 points in the recent 16-game stretch to lead the Canadiens in scoring.
The case against the Canadiens: Despite the efforts of the two young scorers, Montreal simply isn't that dangerous offensively. Since Jan. 1, the Habs have produced only 2.28 goals per 60 minutes, which ranks 22nd in the NHL.
Verdict: A near-lock for the playoffs, but a deep run would be surprising.
Claude Julien has an ability to scheme his way into deep playoff runs, but this group just doesn't have the horses to contend with the front-runners in the Eastern Conference.