Yeah, not the one I was expecting to lose. I don't like doing "two unit" plays but if I was going to, that would have been one to do it on. Oh well, a good night and I forgot to bet on the NCAAF bowl games because I was super busy with school crap and all the teams I was going to bet on lost so overall, a great day at the Flea Hotel.
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I'm loving San Jose tonight.
YTD 11-11, 9.16u
San Jose PL -1.5 vs Philadelphia (+178) 1u to win 1.78u
I rarely play PL -2.5's but it's tempting. My models have SJ winning this by 3+ but my models, including my girlfriend, are not always right. SJ should win by 2 or more, more than 36% of the time.
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Adding this play. Getting Vancouver at plus money ML is hot.
Vancouver Canucks ML (+105) 1u to win 1.05uComment -
Don't mind that guy, he's one of those creepy SBR old-timer zombies who troll from their public library.
You wanted a RPL. I'm not playing it myself but Vancouver RPL -1.5 @ +285. I really like Vancouver to win, I don't really understand why they're a ML dog. I'm not saying to play it but if you have to play a RPL, this would be the one I would tell you to play to get you from jumping off a tall building.
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Haha yea there are some real salty gentlemen on this site. Dude I am liking the Canucks tonight also. Any time I get to bet against Johnathan Bernier, I tend to come out satisfied with the outcome. Canucks are an underrated HOME team.Comment -
Well shoot I really like the Ducks. But I am ice cold.Comment -
LETS CLEAN UP AGAIN TONIGHT GUYS. JayRow you will turn it around bro. Get that confidence back bro!!!Comment -
Great night dude thanks for the picks!Comment -
To everyone who has tailed my NHL picks, congratulate yourself.
+11.99 units in less than a month in this thread.
+12.38 units in less than a month in my TT thread.
+24.37 units in less than a month betting NHL.
Also up in my now retired NBA totals thread and up or almost up in my MMA thread. Dayum. Shout outs to all the creepy SBR dorks who have been here since I was in high school that randomly troll cuz they're all old and salty, shout outs to all those who tail and now have fat rolls. And shout out to all hot Asian girls that I will eventually "tail" myself later. Peace.Comment -
Great job bro. I am now out of the hole i had dug earlier this week. Kicking ass man!!!!!!Comment -
right on bro. I'm sticking too it. There were a couple of plays today I looked at but didn't play them, they all lost. haha. I am not made for handicapping.
I'm just sticking with the plays your making.
We all appreciate the work bro.Comment -
[QUOTE=franknikki1;26665641]right on bro. I'm sticking too it. There were a couple of plays today I looked at but didn't play them, they all lost. haha. I am not made for handicapping.
I feel the same way about myself. I've tried crunching numbers based of head to head past three seasons, goalie numbers, advanced stats (Corsi, Fenwick) and a bunch of other bull. None of it worked out as well as I preferred. So then, I started honing in on patterns. Patterns are everywhere in the world, especially sports seasons. I use those patterns to help predict outcomes of games.Comment -
Way to go, Flea! I'm just glad the stuff you liked agreed with the stuff that I liked. I bet with a confidence like never before last night. I just hope you like what I like today...Comment -
columbus plus 1.5 goals today has a vegas trap all over it minn. is a good team with a fine gk. in dubynkComment -
Thanks guys. I will continue to dedicate a good chunk of my mornings to continue find value and profit. I think we should all donate a small portion of our winnings to a charity that our mentor and SBR top rated copy and paster Nostradam would like. Without him, I don't know if I'd be up 25 units in 20 days (yes, this thread is was started on the 11th of this month), because he has inspired me to go the extra mile to make sure that only the best of the best of the best of my plays are posted here. Not only that, I meditate every morning after the gym and I'm pretty sure he uses some kind of sixth sense to transport the winners to my brain, that's why he doesn't post any picks of his own: he's so selfless that he uses some kind of telepathy to give me the picks instead of posting them before me.
Nostradam is my hero.
I have a few hours to number crunch while my gf and her friend go spend all their parents money shopping so hopefully I can get at least one pick to end out the year. And let us not forget bankroll management. I had a massive night last night with NHL and MMA so I will re-establish my bankroll and re-unit size but don't forget to pay yourself something. I'd rather withdrawal a grand than keep it in a book just to make my units bigger. My girlfriend likes units, I like cash money.
Off to crunch numbers. There are some interesting games tonight to say the least. Thank god the Habs are away tonight. My city is a nightmare when there are big hockey games the night before a statutory holiday.Comment -
hahahahaha you had me rolling with that speech about Nostradam. The song brought tears to my eyes, haha thank you Nostradam for subconsciously sending Flea the picks. You are our hero. lolComment -
I didn't expect Rousey to go down so damn easily. A lot of people loss a lot of money. Bunch of guys I know had Rousey to win. lol over before it started.Comment -
I bet the house on Nunes and Cody. ML, Nunes in RD1 and a two-teamer. I've never won so much betting on one event in my life. I'll never know why people were so on Rousey. It was like free money. My book had Nunes at +160 half an hour before the fight. I'm still feeling euphoric on how much I won. Cody/Nunes two teamer paid +700 and that was my small play of the night. Damn, I love cash money.Comment -
Ok, last plays of the year. Crosby scores again tonight if you can play that prop. +120 at 888Sport.
(YTD 13-11, 11.99u)
MINNESOTA IN REGULATION (+126) 1u to win 1.26u
PITTSBURGH IN REGULATION (+137) 1u to win 1.37u
NY RANGERS PL -1.5 (+175) 1u to win 1.75u
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hey flea, what does your model look like for the canucks vs oilers and sharks va kings game?Comment -
Hey BRM, they didn't make it through the first round of my model. I need a team to win by at least 0.8 of a goal to go to the second round of models which have different and more specific models. I got greedy and took the Penguins to win in regulation even though they only won in my first round by 0.68. That won't happen again. Sorry, didn't see this message earlier.Comment -
1-2, -0.25u last night
(YTD, 14-13, +11.74u)
Even though I had a bad night last night with my posted picks, I nailed a slew of my other picks that I didn't post and at the last minute, a good friend who loves NCAAF told me to parlay Clemson ML and the under for a two full units, which I did and that combined with the hot Asian girls... good night but good riddance to 2016, 2017 is the year of the Flea.
Totally misread that CBJ/MIN game. CBJ are for real.
The best part of my system is even when I lose, I win. My modelling system is dynamic and learns from it's mistakes. It's like the computer in Terminator or whatever movie that was. And, even though I went 1-2, I only lost .25 a unit.
I totally ripped it up this month in hockey betting. I only post the best of the best of the best of my plays here but I bet on lots of games I don't post here but I nailed game totals at just over 70%. I expect to destroy January.
I'm not sure if I'll have any plays today. Sundays are more about the NFL and giving units to the gf but if I'll crunch a few numbers and if I see anything interesting, I'll throw it up so you guys can tail and make some cash money.
Oh, I've been warned by SBR not to "troll" a certain SBR legend anymore so I won't be talking to or acknowledging him/her/it anymore, even though they started it.
2017 is the year of the Flea. Loving the Minnesota/Chicago OVER 43 and Green Bay -3 in today's NFL action. Peace.Last edited by Flea Hotel; 01-01-17, 08:48 AM.Comment -
Good stuff, Flea. What an ultimate sign of respek and badassery: A warning to lay off a "SBR legend". I must say, though, that term, "SBR legend" just sounds hilarious to me.
SBR Legend: "That's right. I'm considered a legend...on...an...internet forum."
SBR Non-Legend: "What are the perks?"
SBR Legend: "No one gets to bother me."
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No, no, SBR warned me not to troll someone who I've self-proclaimed someone an SBR legend. It's fun and ironic to get told not to troll an epic troll but the rules are the rules. I fell for his/her/it's bait. It's all fair play. I will stick to picking winners and making money.Good stuff, Flea. What an ultimate sign of respek and badassery: A warning to lay off a "SBR legend". I must say, though, that term, "SBR legend" just sounds hilarious to me.
SBR Legend: "That's right. I'm considered a legend...on...an...internet forum."
SBR Non-Legend: "What are the perks?"
SBR Legend: "No one gets to bother me."
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MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT
I've had a fun Christmas break but school starts for me tomorrow. As most of you should know, I'm wrapping up a PhD in Statistics at one of the finest schools in Canada: McGill, the Harvard of Canadian universities. I'm quite famous on campus for being the really nerdy looking guy always hanging out with the hottest Asian girls. I've actually had football players ask me what my secret is. I always tell them the same thing: units.
That being said, I won't have as much time to focus on making sports bets as I want to finish my PhD on time (May) so I can go work for the government or a big corporation in the fall, for lots of money.
I will be dedicating MOST of my time to my Team Totals thread because it's MUCH less time consuming and more predictable than trying to pick pucklines and in regulation plays. If a PL or in reg jumps out at me and I will still post them here but 90% of my effort will be on team totals, which I guarantee will continue to be a cash money machine for the rest of the season.
So, in summary. A couple of chalk-free plays a week, if I have time, and hopefully a TT or two almost every day as I try to finish my dissertation. Not sure if any of you did a PhD or a Masters, but, it's not easy, especially in stats.
NO CHALK FREE OR TEAM TOTAL PLAYS TODAY. Taking the day off from hockey to go skating with the gf and then come home and watch some NFL. Should have plays tomorrow.
UPDATE: I do have one Team Total play for the Toronto/Detroit game. Lay the juice on Toronto TT o2.5 (-140). I like Toronto to get at least 4, maybe more.Comment -
Good for you Flea, get that PhD brother. Way to stay determined and focused on what's important. We appreciate any plays you post in the future. Much success to you bro.Comment -
This won't be overly popular but all my models and metrics have the Ducks winning easily. I don't understand all the love on the Flyers. They can't score, they can't win, the Ducks have beat the Flyers SEVEN times straight. I don't do the whole, "they're bound to win because they've been losing" thing. It's statistically unsound and just dumb. If the Flyers win, it's because they play better. I don't believe in regression and superstition. I see no reason why the Ducks don't win this in reg and my models and metrics strongly indicate that a PL play here is the value move. On the flip side, if you're going to bet the Flyers, take the RPL or in reg. If you're betting them anticipating a strong chance of OT, then why are you betting them? Could be wrong, been wrong before and being wrong just makes me better but...
(YTD, 14-13, +11.74u)
Anaheim Ducks PL-1.5 (+205) 1 unit to win 2.05uComment -
Often times, the unpopular opinion/way is the thing that separates us from others (the common). Ducks could totally beat the Flyers by two goals or more. They've done it four of last ten H2H. Only thing I felt good about here was u5.5. Even considering u4.5Comment -
I only like Stolarz at goalie and even he is unproven at this level. I can't say what the Flyers offense will feel like doing tonight against Gibson, a mediocre goalie.
I will admit, I'm pulling for Philly because I'm pulling for a certain capper in the NHL section who picked them tonight.Comment
