Flea Hotel's Legendary Chalk Free Plays

**Flea Hotel** · 12-19-16, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by franknikki1

Great job Flea Hotel, I couldn't get the Rangers minus 1 so I just took them straight up to win, won that one and your team total Blackhawks over 2.5. Thank you brother

**Flea Hotel** · 12-19-16, 08:49 AM

I have an account with them mainly because of all the options and sometimes they have the best prices on the market. I forgot I had money in my Will Hill account and last week logged in to check out their betting options and realized I had a decent amount of money in there. Like finding money in a jacket you haven't worn in a while. But yeah, lesson learned on the -1's. Luckily the -1s I've played here in this thread have all been losses.

Originally posted by the tross

Willhill has all 3 options.
3 way handicap
Asian handicap (60 min)
Asian handicap full game including shootout.
But as stackz says pay attention.
Made the mistake on the oilers yesterday -1 (60min) and lost coz they drew. Appreciate the plays Mr Flea.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-19-16, 12:29 PM

Two plays today. Wanted to do a reverse PL and I'm sure one will hit but my numbers lean to two better choices.
(YTD 6-5, 4.5u)

Calgary PL -1.5 (+230) 1 unit to win 2.3 units
Carolina PL -1.5 (+200) 1 unit to win 2 units

Remember, my plays are based on statistical models that are extremely dynamic and constantly being updated. Please read my introduction before tailing any of my Chalk Free plays. Both these plays were border line in regulation plays but for all that value on the PL makes them the play for me. BOL.

**Stackzilla** · 12-19-16, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Yeah I'm seeing the value in the +1's way more than the -1's. Weird that my book told me -1 was something different. Anyway, now I know. I complained to their service and they gave me a free bet which was cool on their part.

Did you talk to live rep? I've come to find out that live reps know very little about what's going on. Many occasions I've been told something from a live rep but instead of taking his word on it I would send a ticket and I've been on the right side of those more often than not. I honestly think they have those lines up to confuse bettors or for the less experienced using 3-way betting. Keep up the great work.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-19-16, 01:21 PM

Yeah it was a live rep. I called back on Sat and asked to speak with a manager and they gave me a nice credit and apologized so no harm no foul. But yeah, a lot of people prob don't call and know how to use the phone and lose. Live and learn.

Originally posted by Stackzilla

Did you talk to live rep? I've come to find out that live reps know very little about what's going on. Many occasions I've been told something from a live rep but instead of taking his word on it I would send a ticket and I've been on the right side of those more often than not. I honestly think they have those lines up to confuse bettors or for the less experienced using 3-way betting. Keep up the great work.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-20-16, 12:41 AM

WINNER

(YTD 7-5, 6.8u)

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Two plays today. Wanted to do a reverse PL and I'm sure one will hit but my numbers lean to two better choices.
(YTD 6-5, 4.5u)

Calgary PL -1.5 (+230) 1 unit to win 2.3 units
Carolina PL -1.5 (+200) 1 unit to win 2 units

Remember, my plays are based on statistical models that are extremely dynamic and constantly being updated. Please read my introduction before tailing any of my Chalk Free plays. Both these plays were border line in regulation plays but for all that value on the PL makes them the play for me. BOL.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-20-16, 10:14 AM

Two plays for tonight.
(YTD 7-5, 6.8u)

Columbus PL -1.5 (+215) 1 unit to win 2.15 units

Chicago in regulation (+104) 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Close to taking the PL -2.5 (+375) in the Columbus game and the PL -1.5 in the Chicago game (+205) but I'm sticking the to the rules of my models and methodology, even when my math is temptingly close to pulling the trigger on a pick that pays so much more. Those -2.5's are always so tempting, but they pay so much more for a reason. I've learned the hard way that when your numbers lean slightly to a -2.5, stick with the -1.5. Same with the in reg vs -1.5. It's all about value and hot Asian girls.

**magsmeplease** · 12-20-16, 10:53 AM

I like your swagger, going to tail you and see where this goes.
BOL

**franknikki1** · 12-20-16, 11:02 AM

Lets keep this WINNING STREAK GOING BRO!!! And just to let you know I'm married to a HOT ASIAN WOMAN lol. I love them too bro.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-20-16, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by magsmeplease

I like your swagger, going to tail you and see where this goes.
BOL

**Flea Hotel** · 12-20-16, 12:45 PM

Smart man. I love them too much to marry one but if I were to ever get married, it's Asian or bust.

Originally posted by franknikki1

Lets keep this WINNING STREAK GOING BRO!!! And just to let you know I'm married to a HOT ASIAN WOMAN lol. I love them too bro.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-20-16, 11:23 PM

Two losses.

YTD (7-7, 4.8u)

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Two plays for tonight.
(YTD 7-5, 6.8u)

Columbus PL -1.5 (+215) 1 unit to win 2.15 units

Chicago in regulation (+104) 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Close to taking the PL -2.5 (+375) in the Columbus game and the PL -1.5 in the Chicago game (+205) but I'm sticking the to the rules of my models and methodology, even when my math is temptingly close to pulling the trigger on a pick that pays so much more. Those -2.5's are always so tempting, but they pay so much more for a reason. I've learned the hard way that when your numbers lean slightly to a -2.5, stick with the -1.5. Same with the in reg vs -1.5. It's all about value and hot Asian girls.

**franknikki1** · 12-20-16, 11:29 PM

Still way ahead brother. And we won your team total over 2.5 with Chicago. Thanks for the picks.

**franknikki1** · 12-20-16, 11:32 PM

Shit that's right you had over 3 in that game. I couldn't get the over 3, only 2.5. Thanks bro.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-21-16, 11:19 AM

Thanks, I'll be posting the 2.5's starting next pick since most books don't offer the 3 or 3.5's or even 4's like 888. If you guys can use 888, you should because they are the best NHL book for props by far. I'll use 5dimes lines and props from now on.

I'll be gone for a couple of days, gotta go hang out with the GF's parents for X-Mas in Toronto.

I hate X-Mas, parents and not making cash money but sometimes you have to sacrifice a bit. It takes me a couple of hours of number crunching to make my picks and I promised this year's hot Asian girl I wouldn't talk about stats, sports or cash money for a couple of days. The things we do... Be back soon with more winners. I'll be tailing JayRow secretly on my phone while my girlfriends parents keep trying to get me drunk on soju. I can always find time to make a few bets. Merry X-Mas even though I personally can't stand this time of year. Peace for a bit.

Originally posted by franknikki1

Shit that's right you had over 3 in that game. I couldn't get the over 3, only 2.5. Thanks bro.

**JayRow** · 12-21-16, 06:28 PM

I'll make sure you can get those plays in nice and early during your morning dumps. Have a good trip buddy.

**franknikki1** · 12-21-16, 07:07 PM

Haha morning dumps are the best time to study the games. Peaceful.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-22-16, 10:45 AM

I don't mix business with pleasure.

Originally posted by JayRow

I'll make sure you can get those plays in nice and early during your morning dumps. Have a good trip buddy.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-22-16, 10:53 AM

Managed to find a bit of time to crunch some numbers and I'm on a pretty big play. I've been wanting to play a reverse PL all season but haven't found one until...

Minnesota Wild def Montreal Canadians PL -1.5 (+325, 5Dimes) 1unit to win 3.25units.

My models having the Wild winning by at least two. Yes, I know it's in Montreal, I live 10mins from the Bell Centre. Naturally, I'll be on the Wild TT o2.5 as well in my TT thread, as well as another.
YTD (7-7, 4.8u)

**sedwards86** · 12-22-16, 11:32 AM

This will be one of the best picks I've ever seen on this site if the Wild pull that off. I know Minny is rolling right now, but damn.

**Flea Hotel** · 12-22-16, 12:12 PM

The Implied Probability of +325 is 23.5% and I've got them at almost 28. I usually only play a PL if my models are 5% more than the IP of the line but it's too juicy to just play Minnesota in regulation. Not that it's a valid stat, but the Habs are 2-4-2 this year when I am physically at the game. I've seen the Habs live enough, I really don't think they're that good. Obviously they could win tonight, even blowing out Minny but for +325, I like this play. As long as Minnesota gets 3 goals I'll end up in the black as I have the TT Min OVER 2.5 +110. Nothing like going to the Bell Centre and fading the Habs in front of a bunch of drunken French Canadian morons.

Originally posted by sedwards86

This will be one of the best picks I've ever seen on this site if the Wild pull that off. I know Minny is rolling right now, but damn.

**sedwards86** · 12-22-16, 12:32 PM

I agree with your opinion about the Habs. They have overachieved according to how good I expected them to be. Price having his best statistical season ever probably has something to do with that. Are you a Habs fan?

**agendaman** · 12-22-16, 02:17 PM

flea i used to attend games at the old montreal forum at st.catherines and atwater streets i believe fond memories

**JayRow** · 12-22-16, 02:22 PM

JRO and Flea-Ho on the same side... trouble trouble trouble for the books

**Flea Hotel** · 12-22-16, 03:10 PM

No, I was a huge Gretzky fan when I was a kid and have hated the Habs since 93. It doesn't influence my betting but Montreal is really annoying when the Habs are doing well. There's nothing quite like walking out of the Bell Centre when they've lost, I'm the only person smiling..

Originally posted by sedwards86

I agree with your opinion about the Habs. They have overachieved according to how good I expected them to be. Price having his best statistical season ever probably has something to do with that. Are you a Habs fan?

**Flea Hotel** · 12-22-16, 03:14 PM

I don't live far from there. They turned it into a mall/movie theatre. It's actually quite cool what they've done with it. I saw a lot of games there, it's only a few Metro stops from the Bell Center, which is literally in the middle of downtown and it's way more comfortable but the old forum was classic. Crazy times...

Originally posted by agendaman

flea i used to attend games at the old montreal forum at st.catherines and atwater streets i believe fond memories

**Flea Hotel** · 12-22-16, 03:15 PM

I'm taking Min ML, in reg, the PL -1.5, and the TT o2.5. I have a bar to go to if the Habs win and a different one if the Habs lose.

Originally posted by JayRow

JRO and Flea-Ho on the same side... trouble trouble trouble for the books

**JayRow** · 12-22-16, 10:12 PM

MY NAME IS JAYROW AND I APPROVE THIS MESSAGE! Excellent.

**franknikki1** · 12-22-16, 10:15 PM

YESSSS! Minnesota scored a 4th goal in the last minute of the game to take a two point lead. Great job Flea Hotel and JaysRow. I loss my ass yesterday on three bets I should've never made. Thanks for the pick tonight.

**Mike Huntertz** · 12-22-16, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by sedwards86

This will be one of the best picks I've ever seen on this site if the Wild pull that off. I know Minny is rolling right now, but damn.

I concur!

**Flea Hotel** · 12-23-16, 12:27 AM

WINNER

(YTD 8-7, 8.05u)

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Managed to find a bit of time to crunch some numbers and I'm on a pretty big play. I've been wanting to play a reverse PL all season but haven't found one until...

Minnesota Wild def Montreal Canadians PL -1.5 (+325, 5Dimes) 1unit to win 3.25units.

My models having the Wild winning by at least two. Yes, I know it's in Montreal, I live 10mins from the Bell Centre. Naturally, I'll be on the Wild TT o2.5 as well in my TT thread, as well as another.
YTD (7-7, 4.8u)

**Flea Hotel** · 12-23-16, 12:41 AM

+17.18u in 12 days betting NHL.

Just getting started.

Mic Drop

**nature_one** · 12-23-16, 03:36 AM

Very nice pick ,cheers and keep rolling

**sedwards86** · 12-23-16, 04:42 AM

I know you aren't supposed to ask a magician to show you his secret to the magic tricks, but I cannot stop myself from asking this question. How did you determine the Wild had a 28% chance to win that game by two??

**Flea Hotel** · 12-23-16, 07:37 AM

Read my intro on page one. I've been doing stats at the Honours or Grad level for almost six years. A lot of studying and a LOT of trial and error, a lot of mixing of sampling methods with lot of different variables. Then, proper bankroll management and a bit of luck. The totals are more predictable but if I conclude I have a 28% chance of winning a reverse PL on the Habs at home for +325, I gotta go for it. Oh yeah, and I have a magic coin that picks reverse pucklines.

Originally posted by sedwards86

I know you aren't supposed to ask a magician to show you his secret to the magic tricks, but I cannot stop myself from asking this question. How did you determine the Wild had a 28% chance to win that game by two??