Flea Hotel's Legendary Chalk Free Plays

**Flea Hotel** · 01-01-17, 06:58 PM

I play so many games that a loss is a loss. As long as I win more than I lose at the end of the season, I'm happy. I also learn a lot from my losses, which help me win more in the future. In sports, anything can happen. The Flyers could win 5-2 and a RPL -2.5 pays +675. My models say the value play is the PL for the Ducks. Nothing in sports surprises me, I just try to use stats and any objective edge I can to make the best value pick possible. BOL to us both. I never really lose because my system improves every time it makes a mistake so even when I lose, my system wins.

Originally posted by sedwards86

I only like Stolarz at goalie and even he is unproven at this level. I can't say what the Flyers offense will feel like doing tonight against Gibson, a mediocre goalie.
I will admit, I'm pulling for Philly because I'm pulling for a certain capper in the NHL section who picked them tonight.

**sedwards86** · 01-01-17, 07:07 PM

In Flea I trust. Your calculations are definitely spot on. I envy fellows like yourself. You've got much more education than I do. That shit helps lol

**Flea Hotel** · 01-01-17, 07:37 PM

Thanks. I've spent TOO much time in school. Can't wait to finish school and spend some quality time in Asia. I spent last summer in Thailand and Viet Nam and the ladies were so nice and the drinks are cheap.

Originally posted by sedwards86

In Flea I trust. Your calculations are definitely spot on. I envy fellows like yourself. You've got much more education than I do. That shit helps lol

**Flea Hotel** · 01-02-17, 07:17 AM

(YTD, 14-14, +10.74u) Flea Hotel's Legendary Chalk Free Plays
(YTD 16-5-1, +12.18) Flea Hotel's Iconic Team Totals

Overall: +22.92 units.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-02-17, 07:25 AM

No chalk free plays for a bit. 14-14 for almost 11 units. Any new ones will be announced in my Iconic Team Totals Thread. Will try to average one team total per day and my goal is to end the month at at least 20 units, and the season at 30. But knowing my level of skill and talent, we could see much higher.

Extremely high +EV expected.

**jpeterb** · 01-02-17, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Extremely high +EV expected.

...low lying fruit....so hard to resist.

**franknikki1** · 01-02-17, 02:13 PM

My wife is Vietnamese, she's amazing. no more American woman for me lol.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-02-17, 06:56 PM

Nice. Vietnamese women are easily one of my top 5. My current girlfriend is half Japanese, a quarter Korean and a quarter Thai. She's tiny. Annoying as hell but... you gotta do what you gotta do.

Originally posted by franknikki1

My wife is Vietnamese, she's amazing. no more American woman for me lol.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-02-17, 07:12 PM

I really didn't wanna play a -0.5 or PL for a bit but my numbers are just too strong for this pick. I know everyone is fading Vancouver tonight. I'm not sure why. The AVs offence is heinous. Vancouver has had their number, all the trends point to Vancouver, Miller seems to be playing better, especially at home. If you're going with the Avs, why not take the reverse PL at +340 or in regulation at +203? There is much more EV (shout out to my homie battling borderline personality disorder, prayers 4 life) in those plays than the ML because if the Avs break out, they should win in 60 or by a couple. As exotic as picking a reverse PL for Colorado would be, I'd be going against my system that has been quite good to me. I'm not into these streak based, whatever the fuk you call them systems. I don't fade teams because they should win on paper and I don't tail teams that suck.

Haters will sleep well if I'm wrong but remember, I'll be the one sleeping next to the hot Asian girl who has this new bubblebath that smells like bananas mixed with almonds and vanilla, already way up on the day.

Vancouver Canucks -1.5 (+185) 1u to win 1.85u

**knicksrulez** · 01-02-17, 08:42 PM

Was on AVs, just opted out, the last two times you and JayRow were on opposite sides the game went to OT and the Fav won, anticipating that I'll be content with the TT hit

**Flea Hotel** · 01-02-17, 09:53 PM

Too much juice on Vancouver ML. I don't see Colorado winning. I don't think I've lost a bet on Vancouver at home yet this season. Meh, I've been wrong before.

Originally posted by knicksrulez

Was on AVs, just opted out, the last two times you and JayRow were on opposite sides the game went to OT and the Fav won, anticipating that I'll be content with the TT hit

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 08:15 AM

Dayum, just missed hitting that one. I'll play one more "chalk free" play today and if that doesn't hit, I'll solely concentrate on my team totals thread, the hottest thread on this or any site. School work and моя подруга and trying not to be tempted by first and second year stats students who want me to tutor them will be a time whore anyway. I knew the Canucks would win. Right play, just missed it. Feel good. The one I have for today, if I decide to post it, will be... epic.

YTD, 14-15, +9.74u
You know when you're under %50 and still up just under 10 units, you really do have a magic coin.

There is a really sad troll on this site that I had a dream about last night. In the dream, I had won for 10 straight years and he still kept sending me copied and pasted crap from various websites. I said to him, "but friend, I've won for 10 straight years. I'm up over 1000 units. Haven't I earned your respect by now?" He replied, "Bollocks! You know nothing about being a true professional sports gambler." Then he took two Oxycodones, crushed them up, snorted them, and dropped dead. Then, I saw his ghost leave his body and enter an apple I had bought earlier. I ate the apple, and a few hours later, took the greatest shit I've ever taken. Weird dream.

Back later with a play that those of who you are a bit keen should already be expecting.

Oh by the way, any play I post PL, I always play a TT and in the reg on. I won both my TT on Vancouver and my in 60mins. I would have posted those but I thought the PL was the best value play and it almost was. If I posted every play I personally bet on, there would be too many bets. That being said, I had meant to put the Vancouver TT over and forgot. I also destroyed on my NCAAF totals yesterday.

Life is always good at the Flea Hotel. Lots of hot Asian girls walking around and cash money and bitcoin in the safe.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 08:24 AM

Today's play. Wanna get this out early before the line moves. Extremely confident in this pick. I don't do "2" unit plays but I'll wager a nice portion of today's allocated bankroll on this game. I will donate $50CAD to the Canadian Mental Health Association, win or lose on this pick, and dedicate it to my favourite SBR troll, whose probably eating Mr. Noodles and ketchup for breakfast.
YTD, 14-15, +9.74u

Edmonton Oilers ML (+145) 1u to win 1.45
Удачи. Will have Team Totals in my other thread soon by noon EST.

**Frankie1** · 01-03-17, 09:05 AM

HAHAHAHAHA what a dream bro. I think we all know who it was you shitted out lol. There is no denying your skill at handicapping bro, we all got your back. You have made me a ton of money lately and it's much appreciated. You have brought back the thrill again to me. I was doing horrible on my own. IN FLEA WE TRUST!!!!!!!! haha

**HockKid11** · 01-03-17, 09:45 AM

Connor McDavid to down the CBJ run. Sure I'm down for that.

**knicksrulez** · 01-03-17, 10:08 AM

Hey Flea, you playing the RPL and in REG as well?

**sedwards86** · 01-03-17, 10:41 AM

That REG bet is +221on 5dimes. That's what's up. Taking that +365 RPL is going for the bookie's throat. If the ML, REG and RPL all hit, your bookie may want to murder you.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 10:59 AM

I think CBJ are hot as fuk but looking at the schedule and trends, I think this game is a flip with a very slight lean to CBJ. However, the line is +145 ML and Edmonton, when on, are on. I expect an easy win by either team, I don't see it being close.

Originally posted by HockKid11

Connor McDavid to down the CBJ run. Sure I'm down for that.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 11:01 AM

Still thinking about it knicksrulez. My official pick here is just the ML. I like the RPL way more than the in REG. 4-2 Edmonton is totally possible. I'll let you know later if I take the RPL. As sedwards said, +365 for that RPL is very, very tempting...

Originally posted by knicksrulez

Hey Flea, you playing the RPL and in REG as well?

**Bedard** · 01-03-17, 11:37 AM

IMO, going for the Reg and RPL is just being greedy, no need to risk losing 3 units vs the NHL top team. You are already getting a good price on the Moneyline.

**JayRow** · 01-03-17, 12:50 PM

I'm on the Edmonton as well. Really like this game. Will post my plays soon; other one is going to be the Sabres.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 03:09 PM

I think you're right. You see that huge RPL number but it's huge for a reason. I like one unit on the ML. It's CBJ, they're the hottest team in the league. They destroyed the Wild in Minny. My friend who is a winning NHL guy is laughing at me and is playing the PL on CBJ so we shall see. But I agree, spots like this, if you like the dog and are getting a nice price, take the ML.

Originally posted by Bedard

IMO, going for the Reg and RPL is just being greedy, no need to risk losing 3 units vs the NHL top team. You are already getting a good price on the Moneyline.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 03:11 PM

GL on the Sabres and indeed, go Oilers!

Originally posted by JayRow

I'm on the Edmonton as well. Really like this game. Will post my plays soon; other one is going to be the Sabres.

**phild22** · 01-03-17, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

GL on the Sabres and indeed, go Oilers!

Jack Eichel went off post game of the last game and called basically the whole team out. I'd expect them to play good and Jack to score atleast once.

**JTrain** · 01-03-17, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

No chalk free plays for a bit.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by JTrain

**Fernburn74** · 01-03-17, 06:51 PM

Why and what makes you think Edmonton wins tonight and breaks the streak
Colombus is 2-0 at home against Edmonton and always pounds them and going for a new record

please let let me know more in this game cause everything I'm looking at points to jackets

i have a feeling to edmonton breaks this streakis streaktonight and just want more info to make pick weasier to pound !!!!!

thank you and keep up great work. !!!!

**cooperman** · 01-03-17, 07:05 PM

BOL 2 U n JR tonight w/Oilers. I just can't do it. I have a personal rule that I never break when betting. Don't fight a streak! good or bad. I hope you take the Blue Jackets down. May your crystal ball be amazingly clear tonight

**newbie64** · 01-03-17, 07:37 PM

That streak will end in a shootout sometime soon

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 08:07 PM

Like I said, I think CBJ is hot and meshed but they can't keep that PP up. It's close to 30%. My models have the Oilers under-achieving, vs an obviously over-achieving CBJ. I'm playing the +150, not the game. 40.1% Implied Probability in what should be a close game is, without getting into all my stats, which look at the trends, h2h, travel, time off, goalies h2h, goalie trends, ref penalty %, and prob way too many more, have this game a one goal win for CBJ. Actually, 0.993 to be exact. So if it were a pickem, I'd take CBJ but getting +150, I have to take the Oilers. Or I should maybe say, I had to take. CBJ could win 10 more. I usually never fade a team on a big win streak but my metrics had this being close and when I see +150 in a flip or near flip, I gotta chase the value.

Originally posted by Fernburn74

Why and what makes you think Edmonton wins tonight and breaks the streak
Colombus is 2-0 at home against Edmonton and always pounds them and going for a new record

please let let me know more in this game cause everything I'm looking at points to jackets

i have a feeling to edmonton breaks this streakis streaktonight and just want more info to make pick weasier to pound !!!!!

thank you and keep up great work. !!!!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-03-17, 08:11 PM

I just went with my math. I hate fading teams on nice winning streaks. They're winning for a reason. I was praying my metrics had CBJ as a PL but it didn't and I had to follow my system. Can't win em all. At plus money, I just need to be around .500

Originally posted by cooperman

BOL 2 U n JR tonight w/Oilers. I just can't do it. I have a personal rule that I never break when betting. Don't fight a streak! good or bad. I hope you take the Blue Jackets down. May your crystal ball be amazingly clear tonight

**sedwards86** · 01-03-17, 08:40 PM

At least it's close. It really shouldn't be. Oilers are getting dominated

**sedwards86** · 01-03-17, 09:23 PM

I didn't even look at the odds, but I bet Sabres RPL was probably the biggest + value bet that hit tonight (considering they hold on)

**Flea Hotel** · 01-04-17, 08:43 AM

(YTD, 14-16, +8.74u)

**Flea Hotel** · 01-04-17, 09:10 AM

Sorry for the bad pick. I feel bad because I cleaned house on NCAAB, if you're not tailing, you really should be tailing DD's NCAAB thread. I've been tailing him for a while and in my opinion, he's the best capper on this site and better than any tout that you can see in the service play section.

That really will be the last chalk free play for a while. School will really get going today so I will just have time to number crunch a team total or two and then I'm only posting those if their EV is out to lunch high. I'd rather go 3/4 on the week than 14/20.

I just donated a sizable amount of money to the Canadian Mental Health Association. I've had an incredible run since I started sports betting when I was in high school. 2016 was amazing. I couldn't lose last season in the NHL and NBA, had great people to tail in MLB and now, my biggest problem in life is whether to hold on to my bit coin or send it to the bank. That being said, while I'm not a religious man, I do believe in karma. And I like to donate 10% of my roll every three months to a good, reliable, hard working charity.

The Canadian Mental Health Association helped my best friend and my mother deal with some super severe mental illness. I will forever be grateful to them. I ask everyone who's a winning player to consider donating a small piece to a charity that means or should mean something to them. We have someone on this very forum, who believes that a sportsbook would kick off a player because they win too much. When people believe such inane things like this, when this is their reality and not fantasy, that is a sign of what could eventually become a life-threatening mental illness, so my donation today, while probably won't help this very ill person directly, might help future generations get the help they need when they are young, so they wouldn't be creeping around a message board, saying things that at first were funny, but now are just... really sad. Life is cruel to some. Those of us who are fortunate should really try to help them.

Ok, my TT thread will be red hot again, hopefully starting today. Thanks for tailing, still up nearly 20 units on my posted plays. Please consider donating two units to a charity that affects you. Please research the charity carefully because a lot of them use up most of your donation in administration and soft spending and not much gets to the people who need it. Peace!