NHL Betting: Boring defenses net wins
NHL Betting: Boring defenses net wins
In the case of the NHL, boring can be very good...and very profitable. While most like to see goals being scored, plain old boring defense is still the most effective way to add wins in the standings.
If you’re looking for value in NHL betting, there is nothing more valuable – or more boring for most fans – than a great team defense.
Lighting the lamp is a wonderful thing, but a goal stopped is worth exactly the same as a goal scored. Casual fans hate teams that are really good at suffocating defense; think of Jacques Lemaire’s New Jersey Devils in the 1990s, the masters of the dreaded neutral-zone trap. The NHL lockout of 2004-05 was partly because so many teams had adopted this strategy that the games got really, really boring.
People in general don’t like to bet on boring outcomes. So in the spirit of value betting, we present the two most boring and effective defenses in the NHL.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks are the best team in the league at 34-6-5, so making a bet on San Jose isn’t going to feel like you’ve found that hidden gem of a team that nobody else is supporting. But the key to the Sharks’ success is their defense. This club is second in the NHL in shots against at 27.1 per game, and their goaltending (.911 save percentage) is strong enough not to waste that effort.
San Jose GM Doug Wilson, himself a former Norris Trophy-winner, put the Sharks in this position by adding Dan Boyle, Rob Blake and Brad Lukowich during the offseason. All three men have won the Stanley Cup; Boyle and Blake have combined for 10 goals and 23 assists on the Sharks power play, which ranks fourth in the league at 23.6 percent efficiency. Boyle and Blake are also a combined +24 in even-strength situations.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets are indeed one of the league’s hidden gems right now at 22-20-4, but 8-4 in their past 12 contests. The Jackets are fourth in the league in shots against at 28.2 per game; this is doubly important because Columbus has been forced to change goaltenders. Pascal Leclaire (ankle) is out for the year, leaving the door open for rookie Steve Mason (.932 SV%) to come in and do his franchise savior act.
Mason’s workload is kept relatively light by the heroics of one of the least-known defensive units in hockey. Jan Hejda leads the team in plus-minus at plus-18, followed by Mike Commodore at plus-13. These two men are not high-scorers and rarely see any power-play time, which makes their contributions that much more unsung. Marc Methot (plus-8) has also been a positive influence in his third season on the Columbus blueline. But how many Methot hockey cards would you have to trade for one Rick Nash?
Boston at Toronto (+160, 6)
Wednesday, Jan 21, 7:00 p.m. (ET) TSN
The Bruins continue to batter the betting odds at 33-8-5 (34-11 ATS, 36.12 units). The Maple Leafs are a giant money sinkhole in comparison at 17-22-7 (22-23 ATS, minus-9.92 units). Only the surprisingly awful Dallas Stars have been less profitable this year against the puckline.
Boston’s winning formula is simple: second in the league in scoring at 3.52 goals per game, first in goal prevention at 2.13 per game. The Bruins have a league-best goal differential of 1.39, which is why they’re able to cover so many spreads. Toronto has a goal differential of minus-0.63, with most of the blame going to the goalies and their NHL-worst .878 save percentage.
You won’t find two better case studies to prove that a winning NHL program starts with the front office. The Bruins have been in the hockey wilderness for much of the past 25 years, but they hired GM Peter Chiarelli away from the Ottawa Senators in 2006, and the former captain of the Harvard hockey team has put his brains to good use in Boston. The Leafs, on the other hand, have only just hired Brian Burke (another Harvard product) to handle their moribund hockey operations. His remodeling job begins in earnest during the offseason.
Boston is 3-1 this year in four meetings with the Maple Leafs, winning the last three. Tim Thomas (.934 SV%) started between the pipes for the Bruins in every game against Vesa Toskala (.885 SV%), but in their last contest, both goalies were pulled in an eventual 8-5 Boston victory. The Bruins are getting much better backup goaltending this year with Manny Fernandez (.928 SV%) resurrecting his career and Curtis Joseph (.850 SV%) likely on his last tour of duty. No Stanley Cups for CuJo – but at least he has memories of Olympic gold with Canada’s national team in 2002.
In the case of the NHL, boring can be very good...and very profitable. While most like to see goals being scored, plain old boring defense is still the most effective way to add wins in the standings.
If you’re looking for value in NHL betting, there is nothing more valuable – or more boring for most fans – than a great team defense.
Lighting the lamp is a wonderful thing, but a goal stopped is worth exactly the same as a goal scored. Casual fans hate teams that are really good at suffocating defense; think of Jacques Lemaire’s New Jersey Devils in the 1990s, the masters of the dreaded neutral-zone trap. The NHL lockout of 2004-05 was partly because so many teams had adopted this strategy that the games got really, really boring.
People in general don’t like to bet on boring outcomes. So in the spirit of value betting, we present the two most boring and effective defenses in the NHL.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks are the best team in the league at 34-6-5, so making a bet on San Jose isn’t going to feel like you’ve found that hidden gem of a team that nobody else is supporting. But the key to the Sharks’ success is their defense. This club is second in the NHL in shots against at 27.1 per game, and their goaltending (.911 save percentage) is strong enough not to waste that effort.
San Jose GM Doug Wilson, himself a former Norris Trophy-winner, put the Sharks in this position by adding Dan Boyle, Rob Blake and Brad Lukowich during the offseason. All three men have won the Stanley Cup; Boyle and Blake have combined for 10 goals and 23 assists on the Sharks power play, which ranks fourth in the league at 23.6 percent efficiency. Boyle and Blake are also a combined +24 in even-strength situations.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets are indeed one of the league’s hidden gems right now at 22-20-4, but 8-4 in their past 12 contests. The Jackets are fourth in the league in shots against at 28.2 per game; this is doubly important because Columbus has been forced to change goaltenders. Pascal Leclaire (ankle) is out for the year, leaving the door open for rookie Steve Mason (.932 SV%) to come in and do his franchise savior act.
Mason’s workload is kept relatively light by the heroics of one of the least-known defensive units in hockey. Jan Hejda leads the team in plus-minus at plus-18, followed by Mike Commodore at plus-13. These two men are not high-scorers and rarely see any power-play time, which makes their contributions that much more unsung. Marc Methot (plus-8) has also been a positive influence in his third season on the Columbus blueline. But how many Methot hockey cards would you have to trade for one Rick Nash?
Boston at Toronto (+160, 6)
Wednesday, Jan 21, 7:00 p.m. (ET) TSN
The Bruins continue to batter the betting odds at 33-8-5 (34-11 ATS, 36.12 units). The Maple Leafs are a giant money sinkhole in comparison at 17-22-7 (22-23 ATS, minus-9.92 units). Only the surprisingly awful Dallas Stars have been less profitable this year against the puckline.
Boston’s winning formula is simple: second in the league in scoring at 3.52 goals per game, first in goal prevention at 2.13 per game. The Bruins have a league-best goal differential of 1.39, which is why they’re able to cover so many spreads. Toronto has a goal differential of minus-0.63, with most of the blame going to the goalies and their NHL-worst .878 save percentage.
You won’t find two better case studies to prove that a winning NHL program starts with the front office. The Bruins have been in the hockey wilderness for much of the past 25 years, but they hired GM Peter Chiarelli away from the Ottawa Senators in 2006, and the former captain of the Harvard hockey team has put his brains to good use in Boston. The Leafs, on the other hand, have only just hired Brian Burke (another Harvard product) to handle their moribund hockey operations. His remodeling job begins in earnest during the offseason.
Boston is 3-1 this year in four meetings with the Maple Leafs, winning the last three. Tim Thomas (.934 SV%) started between the pipes for the Bruins in every game against Vesa Toskala (.885 SV%), but in their last contest, both goalies were pulled in an eventual 8-5 Boston victory. The Bruins are getting much better backup goaltending this year with Manny Fernandez (.928 SV%) resurrecting his career and Curtis Joseph (.850 SV%) likely on his last tour of duty. No Stanley Cups for CuJo – but at least he has memories of Olympic gold with Canada’s national team in 2002.