NHL Betting: Finding green on second string
NHL Betting: Finding green on second string
There's gold to be mined between the pipes in the NHL, and sharp cappers know just when and where to find it when it comes to starting assignments for back-up netminders. From Panthers No. 2 goalie Craig Anderson in Florida across the continent to LA and Kings back-up Erik Ersberg, paying close attention to who is given the start in goal from night to night is key to turning a profit.
Who does No. 2 work for? Sharp handicappers, that’s who.
Not only do puckheads know how important goaltending is, they also pay close attention to when the back-up is given the starting assignment instead of the No. 1 netminder. Sometimes the lowly substitute is actually the better player. If the betting odds do a poor job of reflecting the goaltending change, it’s a feeding frenzy for value shoppers.
Here are my Top 5 back-up bargain goaltenders thus far:
1. Alex Auld, Ottawa
Auld hasn’t officially been named the big cheese in Ottawa, but he’s started eight of the last nine games for the Senators. Ottawa is 4-4-1 with Auld (.928 save percentage) in net and 0-4-1 for Martin Gerber (.898 SV%). Auld has enjoyed partial success in his journeyman career, especially last year in Boston, so it’s possible he’ll maintain his betting value in Fat City.
2. Craig Anderson, Florida
Anderson was the back-up in Chicago for three years before joining the Panthers to little fanfare in 2006. He’s been a rock since then, posting a .935 save percentage in 13 starts last year that included back-to-back shutout wins on the road against the Islanders and Bruins. Anderson is at .938 this season after four starts in relief of Tomas Vokoun (.910 SV%).
3. Brent Johnson, Washington
The Capitals knew they were rolling the dice when they signed Jose Theodore (.877 SV%). But Johnson (.931 SV%) has started the last four games in a row, and Washington is 3-1. Johnson might soon revert to his typical level, such as last year’s .908 SV% in 17 starts. That would still be welcome on a high-scoring team that can get by with consistency between the pipes.
4. Michael Leighton, Carolina
I’ve never been a big fan of Cam Ward. He was the right man in the right place when the ‘Canes won the Cup in 2006. But credit Ward for steadily improving since then, even if his .910 SV% is still well below Leighton at .921. Carolina is 4-4-2 for Ward and 4-1 for Leighton, also a former Blackhawk.
5. Erik Ersberg, Los Angeles
The Kings are still near the bottom of the Western Conference at 6-6-2, but they’re just one of seven teams in the West without a negative goal differential – Los Angeles is even-steven at 32-32 and near the top of the ATS heap at 10-3. Ersberg won’t win any Vezina Trophies with his .904 save percentage, but it’s well ahead of Jason LaBarbera (.884 SV%), and Ersberg has a 3-1-2 record to LaBarbera’s 3-5-2.
Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks
Thursday, Nov 13, 10:30 p.m. (ET)
The Sharks have the best record in the NHL at 13-3-1 (7-10 ATS, 1.23 units). They have the best goal differential at +13, and they’re 9-0-1 at the Shark Tank. This is a tough assignment for the 9-7-1 Flames, who have a goal differential of minus-5 and a 3-5 record away from the Saddledome. Calgary is last in the league at 5-12 ATS and minus-8.30 units.
It’s that time of year: The Flames have been hit by the flu bug. That, on top of Miikka Kiprusoff’s .889 save percentage, has Calgary at 2-4 in its last six. Back-up Curtis McElhinney has made one start this year, Saturday’s 3-1 loss at Columbus. The Flames are only No. 14 in the league in scoring with 2.94 goals per game, so they need Kipper to rediscover his form – which may never happen at age 32 and with his production slowly declining since joining Calgary in 2003-04.
Consider San Jose’s Brian Boucher (.936 SV%) an honorary member of my Top 5, although he’s dropped two in a row (one in overtime) after winning his first three starts by a combined score of 6-1. No. 1 netminder Evgeni Nabokov (.891 SV%) is day-to-day with a leg injury, and it’s believed San Jose will give Boucher more burn for the time being.
There's gold to be mined between the pipes in the NHL, and sharp cappers know just when and where to find it when it comes to starting assignments for back-up netminders. From Panthers No. 2 goalie Craig Anderson in Florida across the continent to LA and Kings back-up Erik Ersberg, paying close attention to who is given the start in goal from night to night is key to turning a profit.
Who does No. 2 work for? Sharp handicappers, that’s who.
Not only do puckheads know how important goaltending is, they also pay close attention to when the back-up is given the starting assignment instead of the No. 1 netminder. Sometimes the lowly substitute is actually the better player. If the betting odds do a poor job of reflecting the goaltending change, it’s a feeding frenzy for value shoppers.
Here are my Top 5 back-up bargain goaltenders thus far:
1. Alex Auld, Ottawa
Auld hasn’t officially been named the big cheese in Ottawa, but he’s started eight of the last nine games for the Senators. Ottawa is 4-4-1 with Auld (.928 save percentage) in net and 0-4-1 for Martin Gerber (.898 SV%). Auld has enjoyed partial success in his journeyman career, especially last year in Boston, so it’s possible he’ll maintain his betting value in Fat City.
2. Craig Anderson, Florida
Anderson was the back-up in Chicago for three years before joining the Panthers to little fanfare in 2006. He’s been a rock since then, posting a .935 save percentage in 13 starts last year that included back-to-back shutout wins on the road against the Islanders and Bruins. Anderson is at .938 this season after four starts in relief of Tomas Vokoun (.910 SV%).
3. Brent Johnson, Washington
The Capitals knew they were rolling the dice when they signed Jose Theodore (.877 SV%). But Johnson (.931 SV%) has started the last four games in a row, and Washington is 3-1. Johnson might soon revert to his typical level, such as last year’s .908 SV% in 17 starts. That would still be welcome on a high-scoring team that can get by with consistency between the pipes.
4. Michael Leighton, Carolina
I’ve never been a big fan of Cam Ward. He was the right man in the right place when the ‘Canes won the Cup in 2006. But credit Ward for steadily improving since then, even if his .910 SV% is still well below Leighton at .921. Carolina is 4-4-2 for Ward and 4-1 for Leighton, also a former Blackhawk.
5. Erik Ersberg, Los Angeles
The Kings are still near the bottom of the Western Conference at 6-6-2, but they’re just one of seven teams in the West without a negative goal differential – Los Angeles is even-steven at 32-32 and near the top of the ATS heap at 10-3. Ersberg won’t win any Vezina Trophies with his .904 save percentage, but it’s well ahead of Jason LaBarbera (.884 SV%), and Ersberg has a 3-1-2 record to LaBarbera’s 3-5-2.
Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks
Thursday, Nov 13, 10:30 p.m. (ET)
The Sharks have the best record in the NHL at 13-3-1 (7-10 ATS, 1.23 units). They have the best goal differential at +13, and they’re 9-0-1 at the Shark Tank. This is a tough assignment for the 9-7-1 Flames, who have a goal differential of minus-5 and a 3-5 record away from the Saddledome. Calgary is last in the league at 5-12 ATS and minus-8.30 units.
It’s that time of year: The Flames have been hit by the flu bug. That, on top of Miikka Kiprusoff’s .889 save percentage, has Calgary at 2-4 in its last six. Back-up Curtis McElhinney has made one start this year, Saturday’s 3-1 loss at Columbus. The Flames are only No. 14 in the league in scoring with 2.94 goals per game, so they need Kipper to rediscover his form – which may never happen at age 32 and with his production slowly declining since joining Calgary in 2003-04.
Consider San Jose’s Brian Boucher (.936 SV%) an honorary member of my Top 5, although he’s dropped two in a row (one in overtime) after winning his first three starts by a combined score of 6-1. No. 1 netminder Evgeni Nabokov (.891 SV%) is day-to-day with a leg injury, and it’s believed San Jose will give Boucher more burn for the time being.