Where to start?

**jds07v** · 01-16-12, 09:48 AM

The weighting that you put on any factor is entirely up to you. Nobody is going to explicitly tell you their parameters. I'm unsure of your math background, so I cannot really say how in depth you should go (as far as how many factors you want to put into your model).

**Wrecktangle** · 01-16-12, 10:13 AM

Give it up, money would be better placed in a 401K.

**samserif** · 01-16-12, 11:27 AM

For starters, check out Justin7's book. And if you haven't already, check out this book by Stanford Wong and this one by King Yao. The latter two books don't discuss handicapping as much as Justin7 does, but if you're serious about sports betting, they're all must-reads.

**ineedmunny** · 01-16-12, 12:44 PM

This is more of a hobby not a retirement plan. Thanks for the info on the books.

**jgilmartin** · 01-16-12, 01:56 PM

I wouldn't start with NFL, period. You won't find any sharper lines than NFL; have you considered starting with Arena or CFL? If you are interested in setting your own football lines, you will have a much higher probability of success if you start with smaller leagues.

**FourLengthsClear** · 01-16-12, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by jgilmartin

I wouldn't start with NFL, period. You won't find any sharper lines than NFL; have you considered starting with Arena or CFL? If you are interested in setting your own football lines, you will have a much higher probability of success if you start with smaller leagues.

OTOH if he is planning to handicap/model for the purposes of testing certain methods without betting, NFL is probably the ideal testbed.

**ineedmunny** · 01-17-12, 12:43 AM

jdso7v- I have had two college level courses in statistics so I have a pretty good background. I am just unsure which factors to use.

**jds07v** · 01-20-12, 08:17 AM

munny - if you are doing this for NFL, Time of Possession seems to be very important, I know that Allen Eastman is a huge proponent of using this in the scheme of things. Turnover ratio. Red zone efficiency. Yards per rush / pass, offensively and defensively. I think that is a decent start.

Play around with assigning weights, and then backtest and see what you get. I am by no means an expert, but if I was going to pick several factors that would best predict the outcome out the game, I would look to the ones that I just named.

**mebaran** · 01-20-12, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

Give it up, money would be better placed in a 401K.

Especially with an employer match!

Honestly, the best advice I can give you if you're set on trying to model NFL games is to focus on props (will this player score a TD, O/U punts, yds, etc). Anything where the sportsbook is limiting wagers is usually an easier place to start if you're new to modeling sports.

**ineedmunny** · 01-21-12, 01:40 PM

Thanks for the advice jds07v!

**ManBearPig** · 01-25-12, 03:30 AM

If there is one thing I've learned in capping the NFL it's don't ignore TO's/TOmargin. This may be one of the most single important metrics of capping an NFL game. If you have time I found this paper on the subject that explores this. It's not the end all but it's importance cannot be underestimated and is must to understand.

**Salmon Steak** · 01-25-12, 07:35 PM

go to grey matter stat dot com. They will post projections for you. They will also show you situational information. The projections are not very good. It will be difficult to make money using them but it will save you a lot of time. You can move on from there. You will find it difficult to make your own projections that are better than the book anyway. It does not suit anything I want to do, so I don't use it at all. I look at other things. good luck