Changing my bankroll management/betting system...

**FourLengthsClear** · 12-12-11, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by Dylan

Someone suggested I post this here, so I thought I'd give it a shot...

I'm interested in changing my approach to bankroll management and betting.

The system I use is as follows:

I make one ML bet per sport, per day. The game I bet on is the one with the largest predicted margin of victory.
If I win, I bet a marginally larger percentage the next day. If I lose, I bet a smaller percentage.

Each sport (NHL, NBA, NCAA Basketball, WNBA, NFL, MLB) has it's own bankroll.

I'm just not thrilled with my Return on Investment (ROI). For instance with collegiate basketball, my ROI is 1.0044 (100.44%). I'm 19-4 on bets that I've made, and I've correctly predicted 68.22% of all games (including those I haven't placed bets on). I bet on average 29% of my NCAA-B bank, while excel optimization suggest a figure closer to 34%.

For all sports, I log and record everything. Handicaps, moneylines, totals, predicted scores, acutal scores, etc.

I just don't know the approach that I should be using. Anyone have any advice? Should I switch to a flat bet? Start betting against the spread?

If you need more data, (win percentages, correlation, average odds, etc.) just ask. I should have the info you need.

Thanks in advance.

1)What is the source of this?
2)Do you compare it to the market point-spread?

**Dylan** · 12-12-11, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

1)What is the source of this? 2)Do you compare it to the market point-spread?

If I understand your questions correctly, you want to know the source of my data and if I'm betting against the spread. (If not, perhaps you could rephrase the questions. Sorry.)

1. The source of my data is a multitude of spreadsheets, where I log everything.
2. No, I've only bet the moneyline.

**AlwaysDrawing** · 12-12-11, 07:39 PM

Sounds a lot like you play huge ML favorites and have been getting lucky over a small sample.

Do you sell your picks?

**Dylan** · 12-12-11, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by AlwaysDrawing

Sounds a lot like you play huge ML favorites and have been getting lucky over a small sample. Do you sell your picks?

For NCAA basketball so far this season, the average odds is -238.38 (1.4195). I've bet on underdogs twice, winning twice.

I've never even thought about selling picks, how would one get started?

**Waterstpub87** · 12-12-11, 07:51 PM

I wouldn't bet the bank on it. I am big on flat betting, I don't like kelly criterion or shifting units based on how sure I am. As AD mentioned above, you do have a small sample size. Good for you, however, for having the discipline to only bet a play a day. I think above fourlength is asking if you try to look for the value based on the spread by using the spread ml converter. http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...-ml-converter/

**Dylan** · 12-12-11, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

I wouldn't bet the bank on it. I am big on flat betting, I don't like kelly criterion or shifting units based on how sure I am. As AD mentioned above, you do have a small sample size. Good for you, however, for having the discipline to only bet a play a day. I think above fourlength is asking if you try to look for the value based on the spread by using the spread ml converter. http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...-ml-converter/

Thanks for the answer.

I actually have over 4500 different sets of data for NCAA Basketball, I just started wagering this year.

How much do you wager for each flat bet? As well, do you alter your flat bet at all, (e.g., once bankroll is doubled, I double the bet)?

Thanks for the info on the Spread/Moneyline Converter. I'm not sure what use it is for me though. I put in the data for all games and not just those I bet on (-264 favourites, +302.6 for underdogs) and was given the following values:

Spread: 6.5
Fav Cov%: 50.75%
Fave Odds: +102.4
Fave Edge: 2.71%
Dog Odds: +108.6
Dog Edge: 2.71%

What does this mean?

**Waterstpub87** · 12-12-11, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by Dylan

Thanks for the answer. I actually have over 4500 different sets of data for NCAA Basketball, I just started wagering this year. How much do you wager for each flat bet? As well, do you alter your flat bet at all, (e.g., once bankroll is doubled, I double the bet)? Thanks for the info on the Spread/Moneyline Converter. I'm not sure what use it is for me though. I put in the data for all games and not just those I bet on (-264 favourites, +302.6 for underdogs) and was given the following values: Spread: 6.5 Fav Cov%: 50.75% Fave Odds: +102.4 Fave Edge: 2.71% Dog Odds: +108.6 Dog Edge: 2.71% What does this mean?

I have been betting a flat 5%. This is higher then most people would. The ML converter is helpful. I believe it works as such, Say that you entered in the ml -240 and it gave you a 6.5 spread. Say the spread in this case was 5. You would be the spread instead of the moneyline because it is better value.

**Dylan** · 12-12-11, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

I have been betting a flat 5%. This is higher then most people would. The ML converter is helpful. I believe it works as such, Say that you entered in the ml -240 and it gave you a 6.5 spread. Say the spread in this case was 5. You would be the spread instead of the moneyline because it is better value.

Thanks for explaining the converter. So based on my output, if I were to start wagering on ATS, I should only bet on spreads that have a 6.5 or greater value?

Do you only bet against the spread, or sometimes bet the ML?

As well, do you bet 5% of your intial bankroll, or current bankroll?

**Waterstpub87** · 12-12-11, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by Dylan

Thanks for explaining the converter. So based on my output, if I were to start wagering on ATS, I should only bet on spreads that have a 6.5 or greater value? Do you only bet against the spread, or sometimes bet the ML? As well, do you bet 5% of your intial bankroll, or current bankroll?

Current Bankroll, recalculate by game. Its much higher then most people would say, they are in the 1% or less crowd. I'm just less risk averse then they are. No it means, say you like a team. For example Siena tonight. They were -7.5 at -110 at bookmaker, ml of -380. Putting -7.5 at -110 yields -439.6 as the ML. So, in this case, If I even understand the converter right, the ML should be a better value.

**Dylan** · 12-12-11, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

Current Bankroll, recalculate by game. Its much higher then most people would say, they are in the 1% or less crowd. I'm just less risk averse then they are. No it means, say you like a team. For example Siena tonight. They were -7.5 at -110 at bookmaker, ml of -380. Putting -7.5 at -110 yields -439.6 as the ML. So, in this case, If I even understand the converter right, the ML should be a better value.

Thanks for your explanation for the converter.

5% seems like a good percentage for your bets.

Some more questions for you, if you don't mind answering:
Do you bet on more than one game per sport per day? If not, how many games per sport per day? How do you decide how many games to bet on?
Do you bet on the ML or ATS?

**Waterstpub87** · 12-12-11, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by Dylan

Thanks for your explanation for the converter. 5% seems like a good percentage for your bets. Some more questions for you, if you don't mind answering: Do you bet on more than one game per sport per day? If not, how many games per sport per day? How do you decide how many games to bet on? Do you bet on the ML or ATS?

Recently, I have only bet totals in the NFL. Just because a model that I have been working on. Last Sunday, I bet 6 games. I'm moving away from betting hockey because I haven't been able to figure that out yet. I don't like college sports, so I rarely bet those.

**Dylan** · 12-12-11, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

Recently, I have only bet totals in the NFL. Just because a model that I have been working on. Last Sunday, I bet 6 games. I'm moving away from betting hockey because I haven't been able to figure that out yet. I don't like college sports, so I rarely bet those.

Thanks for answering, you've been very helpful.