Wow the genius might be on to something. Whatever math leads one to the conclusion of a ~1% push rate on football 7s really is worthless in sports betting.
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That is why a book could offer +7.5/-6.5 combo on -110. With 1% push rate, they made millions from math guys. I wonder why nobody does it any more today.
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If you search a generic database you will find something like a 6-7% push rate with games CLOSING -7 that land with the fav winning by 7. The 2 generics ones I did a quick check of shows results of 19 pushes in 292 games back to 1994. And the other back to 94 showed 17 games in 284 total. Thatis simply one set of numbers for each database looking at closing numbers and results.
In the database that tracks lines moves, back to 2004 there were only 6 games where you couldnt find any line other than -7, of those none pushed. There were however 169 games that had -7 at one point or another. Of those 169, 87 closed -7 at most of the books in the database. Of those 87 that closed -7 2 pushed on it, but both had some other number other than 7 available at one point during the week. So you were not 'forced' to take -7 if you shopped around or bet at a time when it wasnt lined -7.Comment -
I repeat my post.Comment -
Such an asinine argument. Say you are a genius and manage to get the best available line every time. Are you saying you wouldn't take an extra half point for 1 cent on that best available ever line? Feel free to answer in a concise, coherent manner.Comment -
you have a couple problems:
1. looking at point spreads as a profitable venture from an "averaged" point of view is deadly, and under this assumption, of course they aren't profitable. that's because you are most likely betting the same amounts on each game, or from a per-unit basis. the only way to be profitable at point spreads in the long term is with KELLY. yes, i said that. you need to become familiar with assigning probabilities to outcomes rather than looking at all of them averaged within a year in a given league.
2. if you are to take your stance that you can accurately judge spreads and totals with an average in a given league over a year, not only do you have to test your hypothesis in numerous other years, but you also have to come up with a sample size that is statically significant. stanford wong has a very nice table to illustrate this concept in his book SHARP SPORTS BETTING. i suggest you read this.
3. start using regression analysis and advanced table sets rather than data that the entire public views. you will NEVER be profitable using data the public uses unless you can interpret the data better than the majority of the sports betting public, which in my experience, just about everyone thinks they can do. its easy to look at a spread that is "supposed to", but generally isn't, a 50/50 proposition, and think they can beat it 53% of the time to be profitable. the thing is, you have to study your games and have a proven method of assigning probabilities and coming up with your own totals in order to beat this game in the long term. any other method is taken into account in the line, and usually, you'll lose if you are using "experience"Comment
