How do you determine an "edge"

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  • rake922
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-23-07
    • 11692

    #1
    How do you determine an "edge"
    I see people use the word "edge"

    But I don't know how they came up with it.
  • Ganchrow
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-28-05
    • 5011

    #2
    The formula is:
    Edge = win_probability × decimal_odds - 1
    Comment
    • rake922
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-23-07
      • 11692

      #3
      oh

      How does one come up with "win_probability"
      Comment
      • Ganchrow
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-28-05
        • 5011

        #4
        Originally posted by rake922
        How does one come up with "win_probability"
        That's where one's handicapping comes in to play and should be the focal point of analysis for an advantage bettor.

        Let me pose this question to you: if you see a line at, let's say, +200 how do you decide whether or not you bet it?
        Comment
        • rake922
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-23-07
          • 11692

          #5
          Originally posted by Ganchrow
          Let me pose this question to you: if you see a line at, let's say, +200 how do you decide whether or not you bet it?
          I've never bet a dog that high... If I did I would base it on previous situations while I try to predict the future.
          Comment
          • Ganchrow
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-28-05
            • 5011

            #6
            Originally posted by rake922
            I've never bet a dog that high... If I did I would base it on previous situations while I try to predict the future.
            OK, well what if it's at -130?

            The point I'm trying to make is that in order to make an intelligent decision about whether or not to place a bet, an advantage bettors needs to give consideration to the probability of that bet winning.
            Comment
            • Art Vandeleigh
              SBR MVP
              • 12-31-06
              • 1494

              #7
              Here is an example of not having an edge.



              The last thing I'm trying to do is "dis" Mr. Data, who I respect greatly. In fact, it's because he is quite knowledgeable in math, and has insights as to how to create models, that makes the above thread kind of scary.

              If a poster like him has difficulty finding an "edge" over a long sequence of wagers (while betting full Kelly as well), I have to believe many others do as well. So I for one will be following this thread closely, should it continue.
              Comment
              • NYER5680
                SBR MVP
                • 05-10-07
                • 1486

                #8
                Can you give me your opinion ganchrow

                ant too make sure i clearly understand this concept.

                i will use the giants VS A 's as an example I handicapped the game and came up with

                Giants +146 39.06 win% 2.4600 decimal odds =95.0876 edge
                A,s -156 60.94 win% 1.6410 decimal odds =99.00254 edge.

                how do you analyze the final number to determine your bet
                thanks for your input
                Comment
                • Ganchrow
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-28-05
                  • 5011

                  #9
                  Originally posted by NYER5680
                  i will use the giants VS A 's as an example I handicapped the game and came up with

                  Giants +146 39.06 win% 2.4600 decimal odds =95.0876 edge
                  A,s -156 60.94 win% 1.6410 decimal odds =99.00254 edge
                  Giants Edge = * 39.06% - 1 = -3.91%
                  A's Edge = * 60.94% - 1 = 0.00%

                  As you don't have an edge on either wager (to four decimal places) your optimal bet size would be zero.

                  See http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...on-part-i.html and http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...n-part-ii.html.
                  Comment
                  • NYER5680
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-10-07
                    • 1486

                    #10
                    one last question how did you arrive at -3.91% and 0% what is the math involved with that? Also should you use your own line you handicap or use the opening vegas line? thanks for your help.
                    Comment
                    • Ganchrow
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-28-05
                      • 5011

                      #11
                      Originally posted by NYER5680
                      one last question how did you arrive at -3.91% and 0% what is the math involved with that?
                      Originally posted by Ganchrow
                      The formula is:
                      Edge = win_probability × decimal_odds - 1
                      Originally posted by NYER5680
                      Also should you use your own line you handicap or use the opening vegas line?
                      For the decimal odds in the above equation you should use the line at which you're considering betting.

                      For win probability you should use the figures from your own handicapping.
                      Comment
                      • NYER5680
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-10-07
                        • 1486

                        #12
                        thanks i understand now that was alot of help.
                        Comment
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