Question About Line Movement and BTCL in Baseball

[ABanks]

Hey everyone, I have recently discovered this website and have been learning a lot by reading some of the older posts. I am relatively new to betting and I am trying to wrap my head around some of these complex issues, made more complex by the fact I do not have a background in math, statistics, or finance.

I was wondering if anyone had a strategy/formula for the best way to beat the closing line in MLB without handicapping/modeling. I understand lines move at different times for different reasons, at different paces, and predominantly move because of sharp action. What is the best way to take advantage of line movements? What should I be watching for specifically? Should I be on the lookout for certain movement at certain books at specific times of the day? Which line movements are the best indicators of where a line will eventually settle? I realize the answers to these questions are probably complex and possibly very subjective but even the most basic advice would be extremely helpful. Thanks.

[Ibrakadabra]

Since those who have the answer to how you consistently beat the closing lines pretty much have their own money printing machine I´m afraid they won´t be very willing help.

I like to go the opposite way when lines moves a lot without any special news to explain it. Unforunately that´s my only advice on the subject of line moves.

[RudyRuetigger]

Is this a joke?

[Justin7]

Abanks,

There are 3 obvious ways to BTCL.
1. Bet steam
2. Bet into a rec book with an off-market number
3. Handicap.

If you aren't willing to work hard and spend a lot of hours on this, you will lose money.

[ABanks]

Thanks Justin, I have been watching your videos and have learned a lot from them.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Have accounts at scores of places... bet the rogue lines... ???... Profit

[cigar]

Bet with late movement careful not to mistake it for buy back.. play for more than you can afford so you learn... Disregard steps 1 and 3 of post number 4.

[ABanks]

Thanks. I appreciate the advice. So I watch for a line to move close to the start of the game(10 minutes before start? an hour before start?) and then take the team who has been bet on? What is the best book(s) to watch for this? And how large of a line movement should I be looking for? I was under the impression that late line movement was from public money. So essentially I would be going with the public?

[mebaran]

Thanks. I appreciate the advice. So I watch for a line to move close to the start of the game(10 minutes before start? an hour before start?) and then take the team who has been bet on? What is the best book(s) to watch for this? And how large of a line movement should I be looking for? I was under the impression that late line movement was from public money. So essentially I would be going with the public?

Basically, when you handicap a game (especially for MLB), you are looking at overnight lines, or lines that are fairly new. In baseball, these lines usually come out in the early afternoon for the next days games. The initial movement is usually (and I stress usually) indicative of which way the lines will move.

Example: I see an overnight line of +120 for the Cubs. My model says the fair line is +108, hence, I take Cubs action at +120. If the line starts dropping towards my number, that's a good sign that I'm on the right side. If the line closes at +112, I BTCL by 8 cents.

In baseball, line moves aren't usually larger than 10 cents or so unless there is a major event (pitcher change, etc.). NFL, on the other hand, can see some pretty big swings in spreads and totals.

with your research.

[xyz]

I like to go the opposite way when lines moves a lot without any special news to explain it. Unforunately that´s my only advice on the subject of line moves.

This would be exactly what you do not want to do. Guaranteed to not beat the closing line over a large sample size.

[ABanks]

This might be a stupid question but where does the line usually move first? Which book posts the first line and which book's movement is the best indicator of where the line will close?

[sharpcat]

This might be a stupid question but where does the line usually move first? Which book posts the first line and which book's movement is the best indicator of where the line will close?

No offense but although there is no such thing as a stupid question there is a point where if you ask too many that it becomes safe to assume that you are avoiding finding answers for yourself. You will likely find it more rewarding long term if you were to find these answers yourself.

[That Foreign Guy]

I take Cubs action at +120. If the line starts dropping towards my number, that's a good sign that I'm on the right side. If the line closes at +112, I BTCL by 8 cents.

No you didn't unless you're betting at a no vig book. I'm not going to completely re-type jgilmartin's explanation from the other thread, but think about what happens if a coinflip opens at -105 and closes at -110. Just because you BTCL (as you see it) doesn't mean you're +EV.

[smoke a bowl]

This might be a stupid question but where does the line usually move first? Which book posts the first line and which book's movement is the best indicator of where the line will close?

There is no simple answer to this. The market is constantly changing. The bottom line is if you want to beat closers w/o handicapping you have to watch the market all day long to have a chance at success. There is no magic formula or any golden rule that will get you to the promise land. Just hard work and a big time passion for wanting to be successful will give you any chance in this vulture infested industry.

[ForgetWallStreet]

Bet with late movement careful not to mistake it for buy back.. play for more than you can afford so you learn... Disregard steps 1 and 3 of post number 4.

Also, disregard this post entirely.

[cigar]

Also, disregard this post entirely.

Really? Sbr gave 8 points for that

[illfuuptn]

Basically, when you handicap a game (especially for MLB), you are looking at overnight lines, or lines that are fairly new. In baseball, these lines usually come out in the early afternoon for the next days games. The initial movement is usually (and I stress usually) indicative of which way the lines will move.

Example: I see an overnight line of +120 for the Cubs. My model says the fair line is +108, hence, I take Cubs action at +120. If the line starts dropping towards my number, that's a good sign that I'm on the right side. If the line closes at +112, I BTCL by 8 cents.

In baseball, line moves aren't usually larger than 10 cents or so unless there is a major event (pitcher change, etc.). NFL, on the other hand, can see some pretty big swings in spreads and totals.

with your research.

Correct. BTCL is relative to the price you get it at, not the price your model generates. If you get +130 and it drops to +126 then you BTCL by 4 points(p.s. a 4 point differential is not always the same % edge-the % gets lower as the numbers rise. Do the math). BUT, remember, if it moves from +108 to +112 you prob did not beat it by 8 if you even beat it at all.

ummmmm baseball lines are way less sharp than the NFL.

[illfuuptn]

Also...you don't need to btcl to win. A book would never move the price all the way to the correct line because they don't need to action-wise and also because they want to avoid getting manipulated and scalped.

That being said, if you're not getting an average of at least 2 points movement in your direction on your plays then you are probably -ev long term.

[usernametaken]

maybe bet against your local team with the local bookmaker and with him online. kind of arbitrage

[clowncar]

Consistently beating the closing line is a better indicator of future success than win %.

[mebaran]

ummmmm baseball lines are way less sharp than the NFL.

Good point, and true because of the limited time and information the books have to create the lines. BUT, it's not uncommon to see an NFL game open at +6.5 and end up at +10.5.

Besides the point, as this thread is about consistently beating the market.

[illfuuptn]

Good point, and true because of the limited time and information the books have to create the lines. BUT, it's not uncommon to see an NFL game open at +6.5 and end up at +10.5.

Besides the point, as this thread is about consistently beating the market.

That's incredibly uncommon

[That Foreign Guy]

Good point, and true because of the limited time and information the books have to create the lines. BUT, it's not uncommon to see an NFL game open at +6.5 and end up at +10.5. Besides the point, as this thread is about consistently beating the market.

Maybe if you count pre-season lines as "opening".

I rarely see NBA games that move 4 points, let alone NFL, let alone NFL across two key numbers unless there's major news (which means it is actually a different game from a BTCL point of view - if I bet Dallas -4 the line moves to Dal-2 then OKC's starting five all get arrested and the line moves to DAL -16, did I really make the world's best bet or did I get lucky with a Black Swan event?

[ABanks]

Thanks everyone, this is all very interesting stuff.