Fading the public - March madness

[BigOrangeTitans]

During the conference tourneys I found that of favorites of 3.5+ points that sided with the public hit ATS under 50%. Upon a further look i found that of the faves that had 65% or more of the public with a line change of only .5 points higher than the opening line or less(i.e fave opens at 3.5 and only rises to 4points) lost ATS 80%+.

If the line moved in favor of the favorite and the public was at least 70% on the side of the favorite, it lost ATS everytime but once(Texas/Oklahoma). I saw alot of folks getting buried by NCAAB on thursday and did some digging. This is the reason why. They were all betting on the faves. So what does this tell us as we move closer to the real tournament?

[regularguy]

Hey BOT. Thanks for sharing these observations.

I have been interested, as well, in the games where the public is heavily on a big favorite and the line appears to move the wrong way. (The day we discussed this, I happened to be going the other way, but I was aware of it, and tend not to do so (and I lost).)

Anyway, there is an unusually large number of such games on the board right now. I think the first round of the NCAA tournament lends itself to this, with the big-name faves going up against lesser-known dogs.

Here are the games on the board now (NIT, CBI, and NCAA) that I have found that show this sort of line movement.

Some of them might interest me (CS Fullerton, Nova, MD Baltimore, Texas Arlington, Austin Peay). Others, I can't do (no way I bet on Oral Roberts against Pitt with less than double digits).

Anyway, here they are. Let's see what happens.


Dayton (v. Cleveland State), 69% on Dayton,
line has moved from -8 to -7.5

Wisconsin (v. CS Fullerton), 64% on Wisconsin,
line has moved from -13.5 to -11 (!)

Pitt (v. Oral Roberts), 77% on Pitt,
line has moved from -10 to -9

Clemson (v. Villanova), 68% on Clemson,
line has moved from -6.5 to -6

Drake (v. Western Kentucky), 73% on Drake,
line has moved from -5 to -4

Georgetown (v. MD Baltimore), 64% on Georgetown,
line has moved from -19 to -16

Memphis (v. Texas Arlington), 80% on Memphis,
line has moved from -25 to -24.5

Texas (Austin Peay), 76% on Texas,
line has moved from -16.5 to -16

Butler (v. S. Alabama), 70% on Butler,
line has moved from -4.5 to -4


By the way, I used thespread.com to find the games I listed. I have found that different sources give different information about what the opening line was. SBRlines and thespread.com, for example, will give somewhat different opening numbers sometimes. So, in case it matters, I wanted to note where I got these.

[Arnold]

During the conference tourneys I found that of favorites of 3.5+ points that sided with the public hit ATS under 50%. Upon a further look i found that of the faves that had 65% or more of the public with a line change of only .5 points higher than the opening line or less(i.e fave opens at 3.5 and only rises to 4points) lost ATS 80%+.

If the line moved in favor of the favorite and the public was at least 70% on the side of the favorite, it lost ATS everytime but once(Texas/Oklahoma). I saw alot of folks getting buried by NCAAB on thursday and did some digging. This is the reason why. They were all betting on the faves. So what does this tell us as we move closer to the real tournament?

What was your sample size?

[BigOrangeTitans]

What was your sample size?

Every conference tourney game this year, originally.
I digged deeper. This is hitting at 65%+ over the past 4 march tournament games, conference and the dance both.

[Arnold]

Sorry, I don't follow NCAA. How many games is that over the last 4 years? Did you check the years before?

[BigOrangeTitans]

Regularguy,

The number moving is always due to money. Lines drop to attract attention to the favorite bettor. Lines raise to attract to the dog bettor. So if the lines move in favor of the side that is heavily favored it is due to money. Although they are 80% faves, it does not mean they are 80% of the money. You are not supposed to be able to have that knowledge of where the most money is, but if you see a 80% fave with the line DROPPING, you know the money is on the other side(known as the sharp side). Being as Joe public is a chronic loser, and joe sharp is not, thats the side you want to be on, for the most part.

The best way to follow this trend is wait until about 30 mins before tip, when the dog money should come in. If it still comes out at 65%+ and with little to no line movement, it is a trend play.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Sorry, I don't follow NCAA. How many games is that over the last 4 years? Did you check the years before?

Only went back four years. Thats about 500 games.

[BigOrangeTitans]

I could not get the public numbers of anything before 4 years, thus why its only at a 4 year sample.

[Arnold]

500 games is quite good. So is it an 80% angle? That's very impressive.

[BigOrangeTitans]

500 games is quite good. So is it an 80% angle? That's very impressive.

80 is what it hits at this year.
65% over the past 4 seasons.
This does not include the mid major conference tournaments.

[diogee]

Wow very nice digging BOT.

[WestsidePete]

80 is what it hits at this year.
65% over the past 4 seasons.
This does not include the mid major conference tournaments.

This trend will be key for us to do well and to follow it....

[regularguy]

Regularguy,

The number moving is always due to money. Lines drop to attract attention to the favorite bettor. Lines raise to attract to the dog bettor. So if the lines move in favor of the side that is heavily favored it is due to money. Although they are 80% faves, it does not mean they are 80% of the money. You are not supposed to be able to have that knowledge of where the most money is, but if you see a 80% fave with the line DROPPING, you know the money is on the other side(known as the sharp side). Being as Joe public is a chronic loser, and joe sharp is not, thats the side you want to be on, for the most part.

The best way to follow this trend is wait until about 30 mins before tip, when the dog money should come in. If it still comes out at 65%+ and with little to no line movement, it is a trend play.

Hey BOT. I agree with everything you say here.

I just wanted to identify the games that look like they might fit the trend. The ones I identified, I think, are the ones to check out shortly before tip. By finding the likely candidates now, it allows us to chew on them a bit over the next few days.

[BigOrangeTitans]

This trend will be key for us to do well and to follow it....

Exactly. Petey, after we found this out, what did we do? Go from having a horrible tourney, to a great a finish. I even discussed this at length in the thread "purdue is a trap".
Alot of guys got buried on that game...

[regularguy]

Georgetown (v. MD Baltimore), 64% on Georgetown,
line has moved from -19 to -16

This one is really interesting to me. I'm thinking that Joe Public has heard lots of hoopla about Georgetown this season, and has never heard of MD Baltimore, and I'm thinking the bigger money knows that Georgetown rarely blows anyone out.

But do I want to bet it ....????

[BigOrangeTitans]

Georgetown (v. MD Baltimore), 64% on Georgetown,
line has moved from -19 to -16

This one is really interesting to me. I'm thinking that Joe Public has heard lots of hoopla about Georgetown this season, and has never heard of MD Baltimore, and I'm thinking the bigger money knows that Georgetown rarely blows anyone out.

But do I want to bet it ....????

I think this is based more on the fact that its an instate rivarly, kinda sorta in a way... compounded with the public perception of Georgetown=low score. We will see soon

[BigOrangeTitans]

One thing to note here.
This trend goes to 90%+ when its a nationally televised game.

[regularguy]

Would you consider all NCAA tournament games to be "nationally televised" ?

[BigOrangeTitans]

By the way, I used thespread.com to find the games I listed.

I have found that different sources give information about what the opening line was. SBRlines and thespread.com, for example, will give somewhat different opening numbers sometimes. So, in case it matters, I wanted to note where I got these.

I would use SBRlines just because using this trend i only used Pinny lines. Also, SBRLines is much more efficient IMO>

[regularguy]

I agree that SBRlines is an EXCELLENT service, and I use it alot.

I must say, though, I like those piecharts and graphs at thespread.com.

[imgv94]

Everyone in this thread is EXTREMELY public.. Myself included.

[BigOrangeTitans]

I agree that SBRlines is an EXCELLENT service, and I use it alot.

I must say, though, I like those piecharts and graphs at thespread.com.

Ahh yes, and the charts arent easy to find elsewhere.
Really loving a couple of the games on the watch list...

[BigOrangeTitans]

Dayton (v. Cleveland State), 69% on Dayton,
line has moved from -8 to -7.5

Cleveland State will be the first play tested I believe. I believe they prove it correct yet again as I think that Cleveland State wins this game outright.

[regularguy]

Still looking at UMBC/Georgetown.

Learning about UMBC, mostly. They appear to have had a helluva season. 24-8. Won the America East conference, both regular season and tournament. And I like this: the Retrievers went 3-0 this season against Atlantic 10 teams, beating LaSalle, Richmond, and George Washington.

Here's a good account of their tournament title game:

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/recap;_ylt=AuCE0V6E74R91VDW9bcjQL5107YF?gid=200803150346&prov=ap

Notice, in the article, UMBC's ability to score. They are accustomed to putting some points up. I love the fact that their Junior point guard, Jay Greene, is third in the nation with 7.22 assists per game, and leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (3.37).

"Scouting Report: The Retrievers are a gifted offensive team led by one of the nation’s top point guards in junior Jay Greene. He leads the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (3.37). Greene and senior shooting guard Ray Barbosa (16.9 points) are deadly from the perimeter, while junior forwards Cavell Johnson and Darryl Proctor are effective inside. UMBC, which averages 75.1 points per game, thrives in fast-paced shootouts because of Greene’s peerless decision-making." (Thank you, Yahoo Sports.)

Coach Randy Monroe, 4th year at UMBC, first year in NCAA Tournament, is the America East Coach of the Year.

Stats are kinda in the ballpark:

UMBC TEAM GTOWN
75.1 PTS FOR 69.7
68.5 PTS AGNST 58.0
6.6 DIFF. 11.8
20.7 DEF REBOUNDS 23.3
9.6 OFF REBOUNDS 8.3
45.4 FG% 48.7
72.9 FT% 66.3
7.5 3 POINTERS 7.8
6.1 STEALS 7.0

(Thank you, EOG.)

I like their attitude, too. Seems like a proud squad. Dominated their conference.

And, like you pointed out BOT, this game has to have a little rivalry flavor. These schools are not far apart (though they apparently don't play basketball against each other much; can't find any head-to-head history).

I think UMBC might take a serious cut at Georgetown.

I need to dig a little more. I'm wondering if the Retrievers have anyone who can hold their ground, just a little bit, underneath against Hibbert. I don't think so. I'm also contemplating what will happen to their 75-a-game scoring when they run into one of the best D's in the country.

Still scratching my head.

[regularguy]

Cleveland State/Dayton is no longer fitting your criteria, BOT. (And I don't see a play on Cleveland State here, personally.)

[regularguy]

By the way, tomorrow, Virginia Tech is -17.5, down from -18.5 (v. Morgan State), despite the fact that 71% of the bets are on them.

I'm not suggesting that I will put anything on Morgan State (though it might not be bad at all). Just looking out for these sorts of lines, for purposes of this thread. Sorta interesting.

[moses millsap]

Fading the public will likely just make a bettor lose slower over time. Just bet the games based on your numbers/angles; ignore the rest.

[regularguy]

Actually, the title of this thread is off. What I'm interested in, and exploring a bit here, thanks to BOT's thread, is following the "wrong-way" line movement. I think its a sort of "steam" -- but maybe I don't use that word right. Anyway, just brainstorming here.

[NumNutz74]

Good info, I have had great success in conference play both in ncaabb and ncaaf on betting on the dogs in the 1st half lines. I look for 70% or higher on which way the public is betting and take the other side. Only thing is u have to have a bank roll to play every game that fits this criteria. And over the season u will see huge profits. Remember two keys, bet same amount every game and when confr. play only.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Possible plays for Thursday Early:
Portland ST(2nd biggest play as of now. Line dropped 3 pts to Kansas with 79 public)
Oral Robers(1.5 point drop in public favor to Pitt. Biggest play on the board. Has recieved more bets than any game on the board meaning maximum national exposure.)
Baylor
UNLV

[WestsidePete]

So Port St, Oral R, Baylor are proper plays here??

[BigOrangeTitans]

Baylor
Oral Roberts
Port St
Those are the first 3 system plays.
Georgia would have been a system play but some late line movement put Xavier a point more instead of .5.

[BigOrangeTitans]

All of the faves covered in the first 2 sets...
2nd set of trend plays are as follows
Belmont
CS Fullerton
K state
George mason

[BigBollocks]

I used to offer this to the newcomers on Covers, and will do the same thing here. Anyone who had a system that they thought was new and would win at an astronomical rate, I'd give them 2-1 that they couldn't hit 60% over 100 plays. This included home dogs, teams on back to back games, "fading the public," white vs. black teams, betting the first team alphabetically, betting on teams that play better at night, etc, etc, etc.

I'm willing to do the same thing here, but will make it 15 out of 25 sides at 1.1 to 1 since there are so few games left remaining. If you had $10,000 and played every game at $1,000 per game, this is far better than you would do going 15-10.

Of course the 0-3 start to the "fading the public March Madness" system will be ignored. No name calling or trash talk necessary whatsoever, but just a simple offer to anyone thinking they've got the instant cure to win in buckets. GL to BOT and all, and I hope this goes 100% the rest of the way if no one is willing to bet via Matchbook. Cheers

[BigOrangeTitans]

I used to offer this to the newcomers on Covers, and will do the same thing here. Anyone who had a system that they thought was new and would win at an astronomical rate, I'd give them 2-1 that they couldn't hit 60% over 100 plays. This included home dogs, teams on back to back games, "fading the public," white vs. black teams, betting the first team alphabetically, betting on teams that play better at night, etc, etc, etc.

I'm willing to do the same thing here, but will make it 15 out of 25 sides at 1.1 to 1 since there are so few games left remaining. If you had $10,000 and played every game at $1,000 per game, this is far better than you would do going 15-10.

Of course the 0-3 start to the "fading the public March Madness" system will be ignored. No name calling or trash talk necessary whatsoever, but just a simple offer to anyone thinking they've got the instant cure to win in buckets. GL to BOT and all, and I hope this goes 100% the rest of the way if no one is willing to bet via Matchbook. Cheers

BB, i dont know what you are so adament about.
I never called it a system. It is simply a "trend" which is a spike of abnormalities in a statistic. As for an 0-3 start, thats fine. But do note that K st and belmont covered easily with 2 games pending. So therefore its 2-3 as of now. I never said this was "instant cure" or a "guarantee" did I? I merely wanted to show a trend. APPARENTLY thats a fukkin crime. I showed you in my post thursday and friday from conf tourneys in which this trend was phenomenal.

Unless you have something to add to this thread, please politely go fukk yourself.