Jastin 7 I have read your book and had a question about home runs props

[newbee]

Justin7,
Very informative book. I was wondering wether I use the right approach when I want to attack home runs over/under bets. Would it be fair to say that using totals of the game should be informative enough to attack the bet? Or am I missing something?

Thanks,

[Justin7]

There are better ways. Some teams (like Yankees) are built around sluggers, and have more home runs per run scored. Other teams focus less on slugging, and more on getting onto base. Your approach might be a starting point though.

[Thremp]

You deleted my entire post because it embarrassed you. Quite frankly you should just delete that entire bit of tripe you just posted. It'd help you save face since its indicative of not understanding much of anything about baseball.

[Justin7]

Thremp,

Feel free to discuss approaches. If you think something I have posted is factually or theoretically incorrect, address it. I'd actually be interested to see your factual basis.

Your post is in PZ, where we move all insulting posts from HTT.

[Thremp]

My questions again:

1) Yanks rank in OBP
2) HR
3) IsoP
4) HR/RS

PseudoExpertise, thx play again.

[Maverick22]

hmm...

censorship by the man...

[Justin7]

In 2009, the Yankees had 244 HRs, vs Texas at 224 (#2) in regular season. OBP was .362, vs Boston (#2) at .352. you are correct they are not as good an example this year.

the original question though, Thremp... what do you think of newbee's original question?

[Data]

Or am I missing something?

Not a whole lot, just the pitchers, the batters, and the park.

[Justin7]

Not a whole lot, just the pitchers, the batters, and the park.

So the meat of the question:

Should a game with a total of X likely to have the same number of expected home runs? And if you assume yes, are you introducing a significant error in your pricing?

I mentioned the batting composition earlier. I think your answer also suggests that the total does not conclusively suggest a fair price on the expected number of home runs.

[Thremp]

In 2009, the Yankees had 244 HRs, vs Texas at 224 (#2) in regular season. OBP was .362, vs Boston (#2) at .352. you are correct they are not as good an example this year. the original question though, Thremp... what do you think of newbee's original question?

Cool. Wasn't wondering if people were living in the stone age or selecting biased data.

[Data]

So the meat of the question:

Should a game with a total of X likely to have the same number of expected home runs? And if you assume yes, are you introducing a significant error in your pricing?

I mentioned the batting composition earlier. I think your answer also suggests that the total does not conclusively suggest a fair price on the expected number of home runs.

No
Yes
You did
True

[newbee]

Thanks guys for your answers... No I change my method slightly. Let's say I introduce ML into equation. Would ML for home team + game total would be descriptive enough?