Question for Ganch

**RickySteve** · 12-10-07, 09:50 PM

Obviously Ganchrow is the only person qualified to answer this.

**Justin7** · 12-11-07, 12:32 AM

Ricky,

Anyone can answer it (you included). The "Ganch" tag was intended to get a mathematical response, but I'll take it from anyone.

**Ganchrow** · 12-11-07, 02:03 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

You're considering an NFL game with the spread Pick, total 42.

What would be the fair price on a 1-team 5-point teaser for the first half? Assume the first half line is Pick/21.

I don't have half time data nor have I meaningfully modeled 1^st half scoring.

I suspect RickySteve's your man.

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 02:32 AM

I'd price it at ±222.8.

**Dead Money** · 12-11-07, 05:47 AM

Justin, What book/books let you tease 1st half spreads?

Thanks,
DM

**Justin7** · 12-11-07, 11:53 AM

I made it about +/-260.

WagerWeb was allowing Dallas to do this at -110.

**raiders72002** · 12-11-07, 12:23 PM

I'd price it at ±222.8.

wrong

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by raiders72002

wrong

Confidence in my answer just went way up.

**raiders72002** · 12-11-07, 12:46 PM

Want to make a bet on it?

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

I made it about +/-260.

WagerWeb was allowing Dallas to do this at -110.

What are you using for push %s on 0-5?

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by raiders72002

Want to make a bet on it?

What are the terms of the bet, Hypatia?

**raiders72002** · 12-11-07, 12:55 PM

Data the last 5 years from covers.

**raiders72002** · 12-11-07, 01:03 PM

Where are you finding HT lines and scores? I have my own.

**jjgold** · 12-11-07, 01:04 PM

I put my money on Raiders

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by raiders72002

Data the last 5 years from covers.

Still waiting...

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I put my money on Raiders

Confidence in my answer just went way up.

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 01:12 PM

I'm guessing you lads are overvaluing the 3 (which is hardly better than the 4), or not appreciating that you're only capturing half of the 0.

**raiders72002** · 12-11-07, 01:13 PM

Give or take 5 cents. What lines are we using? Where are you getting HT lines? What book?

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by raiders72002

Give or take 5 cents. What lines are we using? Where are you getting HT lines? What book?

I think they're from BetOnSports. Have you heard of them?

**Justin7** · 12-11-07, 01:22 PM

Ricky,

Mine was a blind guess. But regardless of being at 230 or 260, it's a steal at -110.

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Ricky,

Mine was a blind guess. But regardless of being at 230 or 260, it's a steal at -110.

Certainly. It was a hell of an angle.

**raiders72002** · 12-11-07, 01:39 PM

I think they're from BetOnSports. Have you heard of them?

another BOS reference.

**RickySteve** · 12-11-07, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by Dead Money

Justin, What book/books let you tease 1st half spreads?

Thanks,
DM

BestLine used to have 3-point 1H teasers.