For Football Season: a model consensus tool

[Wrecktangle]

Any interest in this? We could use the Google "excel" tool to let everyone involved participate in "real time".

[IrishTim]

I'd be surprised if you get a whole lot of interest, but I would participate if it does materialize. Some of the more established guys might see it as a waste of time, but for me, it could be a good opportunity to learn some new things.

[Maverick22]

Could you tell us slower people what that means?

And if people would like to get together to build a community NFL web scraper...Sign me up for that too

[Grind-It-Out]

Could you tell us slower people what that means?

And if people would like to get together to build a community NFL web scraper...Sign me up for that too

What are you trying to scrape? I used to build scrapers all the time for s**** and giggles.

[Maverick22]

Thinking of just scraping the boxscore for football... Dont think i want to invest in the play by play. ( not that i dont want it)


If we wanted to make it a group effort, that would be cool. Otherwise I'll do it once my baseball stuff is finished.

[Leverage]

I'm down. PM me if anything happens. I dont have anything excel but it would take me a day or two to convert it.

[Wrecktangle]

Firstly, I'm all for an NFL scraper.

On the modeling summation effort, it is simply a tote sheet of each model's selections for each week in a single format so that everyone who is contributing can build a consensus of opinions. You simply contribute team selected, how well you think it will do, and line. We then grade you against the line you posted and closing line and keep a running summation of both. A few years back, we had a few 55% models achieving around 60% on the consensus.

[Maverick22]

So you mean after a weeks worth of games pass by? We share what our picks were and how they came out?

Or do you mean on a daily basis to put together "master picks"?

[Santo]

Would have to be before the games or it defeats the purpose, either week ahead or daily would work though.

[Wrecktangle]

Yes, everyone would post (hopefully daily as the line moves) as to their opinion on each game they see as meeting their criterion. The idea is to just post the picks in same format and then everyone can use their own method to combine picks. And then when the games are over, compile win% statistics.

[NYER5680]

I' give it a shot

[Carnage]

Sounds like a good idea. I'd be down

[Spektre]

If there is still interest in this, I would be interested in BOTH ideas.

1. The consensus tool
2. If anyone could help a brother out with some simple NFL historical databases I'd really like to do some backtesting before going live.
My needs are simple: final scores, final lines, for the last 4-5 years of NFL data. (and NCAAF if available)

Any simple format I can parse...will be going into Access

Thanks in advance

Spektre

[JayTrotter]

I think this is a good idea.

I am not sure a consensus of forum guests would be all that relevant.
And it would take a couple weeks to understand the data...
Last year used a consensus of handicappers from another site, had a great run. Wouldn't be here if the information over there had not been so shaky. I have no risk tolerance when things are not in my favor.

I like to bet against the behaviors of people who always lose. It's a simple strategy, based on the wisdom of Jagdish Metha, my professor of finance. "If something doesn't work in finance, do the opposite."

I find with consensus, things compound. If you can find some relevant sources, such as someone going 60% or someone going 40%. There are a lot of ways to go more than 70%! Just like in sports people should be evaluated on season by season basis. Few people are in the top 10% year in and year out.. Indy, yankees, Lakers. Yet, a lot of teams can be stuck in the bottom 10% for decades, Lions, clippers, grizzlies, oakland, UNLV football, Indiana pacers, etc, etc.

If we incorporate the data, and plan for the streaks, we could have better christmas presents.
We should sweep the Bowl season, 10-1.. 11-0 are highly likely.

A focus for our group could be the data associated with 2nd half lines. This seems the biggest opportunity, because that line more than any line is based on where the money is. It would take a few good excel researchers, and some very good creative analysis. If we work together, we will make a lot of money. Some spending money to buy the wife a new necklace, so she will stop talking during the final 2 minutes... haha. Tell her how much you really bet, and see if she still doesn't care about football.

[JayTrotter]

I guess the next step would be to get people's betting strategies, to compile an overall strategy.

I will go first.

I am completely different than most. I know who is playing tackle for New Orleans, I don't use it in my gambling decisions though!

I look for spots where the sportsbook is hedging, I believe the line serves 3 purposes.

1. Optimize "assumed" value
2. manage risks
3. add to the noise.

I am looking at the card as a whole, I have noticed, that there are very few times, when there will be only one 7 pt home favorite, or one spread of any type, they bunch up as if it is -2 home favorite day. It seems to me that the lines are offered in a way to disguise some games, and to highlight others. The books IMHO use more psychology than algorithms to keep winning. They understand that everyone is risk averse.

The line to me is solely an indicator of value. There is no line in reality, and teams do not play to win by more than 4.5 pts. What is often does is act as a monetary unit of some sort. A team favored by 1 is by assumption, more risky, than a team favored by 14. Most people are looking to bet on strength, experience, and a solid team dynamic. This is like buying microsoft. There is very little upside to it, and a very large assumption of safety. All con artists and marketers offer safety. be advised!

The place to be is growth. Teams that are coming up, or undervalued. Teams with very real problems. The nets owner shared wisdom of investing, he said he liked to buy flawed companies, companies with real problems. He is a billionaire. Taking that as a model, we should look for matchups that are presumed as toss ups, because the teams are MID level and are actually at quite an advantage, because of system, situation, or coaching. In college there are a LOT of games, when if things don't go right, kids are very ready to quit. Professionals are much more efficient, they can quit even before the kickoff.

My philosophy is the same as warren buffett's. Don't invest in anything you don't understand, and when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.

[lasker]

I think this is a great idea and I'm definitely interested in participating. I've imported extensive databases to excel and I'm in the process of working on a number of different models. I'm still very green, but I feel that I've been picking up a lot here in the Think Tank and from my books, and I'm working hard on the models so we'll see how they stack up.

[Wrecktangle]

OK, if you are interested, PM me your e-mail addresses and I'll start setting up a google calc tool to track this stuff. If you can set up a gmail address for this it would probably work better.

[durito]

Can I join? I use the Nicky S. NFL Model:

[tomcowley]

I guess the next step would be to get people's betting strategies, to compile an overall strategy.

I will go first.

I am completely different than most. I know who is playing tackle for New Orleans, I don't use it in my gambling decisions though!

I look for spots where the sportsbook is hedging, I believe the line serves 3 purposes.

1. Optimize "assumed" value
2. manage risks
3. add to the noise.

I am looking at the card as a whole, I have noticed, that there are very few times, when there will be only one 7 pt home favorite, or one spread of any type, they bunch up as if it is -2 home favorite day. It seems to me that the lines are offered in a way to disguise some games, and to highlight others. The books IMHO use more psychology than algorithms to keep winning. They understand that everyone is risk averse.

The line to me is solely an indicator of value. There is no line in reality, and teams do not play to win by more than 4.5 pts. What is often does is act as a monetary unit of some sort. A team favored by 1 is by assumption, more risky, than a team favored by 14. Most people are looking to bet on strength, experience, and a solid team dynamic. This is like buying microsoft. There is very little upside to it, and a very large assumption of safety. All con artists and marketers offer safety. be advised!

The place to be is growth. Teams that are coming up, or undervalued. Teams with very real problems. The nets owner shared wisdom of investing, he said he liked to buy flawed companies, companies with real problems. He is a billionaire. Taking that as a model, we should look for matchups that are presumed as toss ups, because the teams are MID level and are actually at quite an advantage, because of system, situation, or coaching. In college there are a LOT of games, when if things don't go right, kids are very ready to quit. Professionals are much more efficient, they can quit even before the kickoff.

My philosophy is the same as warren buffett's. Don't invest in anything you don't understand, and when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.

Can I donate SBR points, except have them subtracted from the recipient's total instead of added?

[Spektre]

Can I donate SBR points, except have them subtracted from the recipient's total instead of added?

[Spektre]

One question for databased handicappers who have been at this longer than me.

How do you "front load" your database. In otherwords, I doubt I will have enough meaningful data to make pick until maybe week 4 or 5 of the season. Do you use last years stats? Do you do a "best guess" and then switch to your databased method after you have some meaningful data?

Just curious.

For myself, I will most likely have poor data out of my model until week 4 or 5 as noted.

Spektre

[JayTrotter]

you think there is something wrong with my philosophy? Tell me what is wrong. I will give you some of my points. Since that is what you asked for.

[djiddish98]

Start with that fact that books dont have nearly the control you think they do.

Yes, a book does have the choice to not move their lines, but they will leave themselves seriously exposed to the wrong kind of action.

[Flying Dutchman]

One question for databased handicappers who have been at this longer than me.

How do you "front load" your database. In otherwords, I doubt I will have enough meaningful data to make pick until maybe week 4 or 5 of the season. Do you use last years stats? Do you do a "best guess" and then switch to your databased method after you have some meaningful data?

Just curious.

For myself, I will most likely have poor data out of my model until week 4 or 5 as noted.

Spektre

Use last year's data, dropping out post season, i.e. reg season wk 17 butts up to wk 1 this season. But you are right, you typically need a few weeks to settle into new season

For betting I use: 1/4 unit bets at most wk 1, 1/3 unit wk 2, 1/2 unit wk 3, 3/4 unit wk 4, full in wk 5, & super-selective in first two weeks; wk 1 especially.

[JayTrotter]

oh well. I will help where and how I can. sorry for distracting from the topic.

[Indecent]

Do you use last years stats? Do you do a "best guess" and then switch to your databased method after you have some meaningful data?

I don't start betting until week 5. With my technique I could not find a way to produce any good results on weeks 1-4.