[jjgold]

17 Years and still teaching you guys everything

DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO MY 3 BANKRUPTCIES THAT WAS A BUSINESS MOVE

[Chi_archie]

word

[d2bets]

This is true. You can either rely on math or rely on luck. I'll go with the math.

[Darkside Magick]

Lmaoooo

What math are you using for random (Chaotic) events?

[gauchojake]

Quantum physics is more important

[KiDBaZkiT]

You know how many “numbers” guys i see get their clock cleaned? Best is when they lose “I had the right side” then why didn’t you get paid?

[JIBBBY]

1+1 = 3

I'm screwed ...

[Chi_archie]

1+1=3 === - $126 in bitcoin

[JIBBBY]

1+1=3 === - $126 in bitcoin

Chi I'm gonna bitch slap you I swear!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[pologq]

will there be a 4th bankruptcy?

[d2bets]

You know how many “numbers” guys i see get their clock cleaned? Best is when they lose “I had the right side” then why didn’t you get paid?

Lose a game or lose long-term? I lose a lot of games but I always have the right side, so I win long-term. You can't win without losing. Winners aren't worried about losing.

[MoneylineExpress]

Once you learn math you'll learn gambling is most likely a losing hobby. We're going up against a multi-billion dollar industry that can employ some of the smartest mathematicians and obtain access to information the common person doesn't have. You'll realize that -110 2.4% edge the sportsbooks have is all they need to beat you over the long run. I still take a shot at futures, props, and small markets. I stay away from the day to day grind of professional sports.

[Darkside Magick]

Once you learn math you'll learn gambling is most likely a losing hobby. We're going up against a billion-dollar industry that can employ some of the smartest mathematicians and obtain access to information the common person doesn't have. You'll realize that -110 2.4% edge the sportsbooks have is all they need to beat you over the long run. I still try.

Again..... What math is the smartest mathematicians employed by these bookmakers using for random(Chaotic) events?

[jjgold]

I’m starting to learn SDQL

[deltgen]

Again..... What math is the smartest mathematicians employed by these bookmakers using for random(Chaotic) events?

You're talking way over alot of peoples' heads, Darkside.

[KiDBaZkiT]

You math guys realize JJ is just trolling you right? He’s old school and from the east coast. He’s met plenty of RAZOR sharp guys over the years and in the past when we didn’t have all these laptops and smartphones that showed us different odds and prices from around the world. JJ knows dudes that used to get their spreads from the news paper that were very successful cappers. He’s also trolling cuz show me one thread in this forums history using strictly math that yielded long term wins. Can’t really just take someone’s word for it on this forum. Not saying you can’t win that way at all, I follow a guy Brad Powers that I guess you could say is a “math” guy but he still also has a vast knowledge of teams and what to expect from them given each weeks unique circumstances.

[d2bets]

Once you learn math you'll learn gambling is most likely a losing hobby. We're going up against a multi-billion dollar industry that can employ some of the smartest mathematicians and obtain access to information the common person doesn't have. You'll realize that -110 2.4% edge the sportsbooks have is all they need to beat you over the long run. I still try.

Wrong. You haven't learned the math.

[MoneylineExpress]

Bayesian inference and Stochastic models

[JIBBBY]

[Darkside Magick]

Bayesian inference and Stochastic models

Lmoooooooooooooo

Bayes inference (Bayes Theorem) is conditional probability... Based off BELIEF..

Stochastic is a property defined in a RANDOM Distubution


Try Again

[SamsNCharge99]

Sign cosign and tangent

[Nate rasta]

The only math I know is to buy a half a point 😆 🤣 😂

[LT Profits]

Yes, you need math to identify value, i.e., if you project the favorite to win 60% of the time, what odds would you take to bet the chalk or the dog.

BUT, the other side of that is money management. You could be the best value handicapper in the world but it would not do you any good if you go all-in on a loser.

[Darkside Magick]

Yes, you need math to identify value, i.e., if you project the favorite to win 60% of the time, what odds would you take to bet the chalk or the dog.

BUT, the other side of that is money management. You could be the best value handicapper in the world but it would not do you any good if you go all-in on a loser.

The problem with identifying edge(Expected Value) is you don't know all the possibilities of said event... That why you can't really know your edge to ANY event.

[iwantcougars]

BUT, the other side of that is money management. You could be the best value handicapper in the world but it would not do you any good if you go all-in on a loser.

discipline is the key

[agendaman]

as the one poster said correctly the numbers concluded i had the right side BUT the rb. fumbled the football at the goalline and i my bet ticket is a loser.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

17 Years and still teaching you guys everything

DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO MY 3 BANKRUPTCIES THAT WAS A BUSINESS MOVE

THREE bankruptcies? Maybe three this YEAR.

[mama whoiscrying]

I’m starting to learn SDQL

I'll hook you up. After the all star break.

[d2bets]

The problem with identifying edge(Expected Value) is you don't know all the possibilities of said event... That why you can't really know your edge to ANY event.

Are you claiming that it's impossible to get cumulative overall positive expected value over time?

You can if you get off-market numbers. Guaranteed.

I suppose on any one individual, you don't know for sure. But overall, yeah, you know for sure.

The major sports closing markets are pretty efficient over a broad sample. Beat the closing line consistently by more than the juice, and you win. Period, end of story, it can't be debated.

[Darkside Magick]

Are you claiming that it's impossible to get cumulative overall positive expected value over time?

You can if you get off-market numbers. Guaranteed.

I suppose on any one individual, you don't know for sure. But overall, yeah, you know for sure.

The major sports closing markets are pretty efficient over a broad sample. Beat the closing line consistently by more than the juice, and you win. Period, end of story, it can't be debated.

Again... You can not calculate the expected value to ANY Event because you don't know all probabilities of the event!

[d2bets]

Again... You can not calculate the expected value to ANY Event because you don't know all probabilities of the event!

You don't need to calculate the exact expected value. You just need to know that it's positive. It doesn't need to be exact, and yes, it can be done. You're simply wrong. Two decades of consistent profits lets me know you're wrong. I'm not lucky and I don't guess.

As a whole, major closing markets are quite accurate. Beat them by enough and you win. How hard is that to understand? It's a proven fact over decades.

[Darkside Magick]

You don't need to calculate the exact expected value. You just need to know that it's positive. It doesn't need to be exact, and yes, it can be done. You're simply wrong. Two decades of consistent profits lets me know you're wrong. I'm not lucky and I don't guess.

As a whole, major closing markets are quite accurate. Beat them by enough and you win. How hard is that to understand? It's a proven fact over decades.

How do you know that it is positive or negative if you still don't know all the probabilities of the event..

You basically plugging in a confidence number and then looking to see if it is +EV/-EV

It is still not based of math ( equations) which is the origina point of the thread

[stevenash]

Learn your American odds, fractional odds, and implied odds.
And learn it like you learned your ABC's in first grade.

-150 means 60 percent.
60 percent means if you bet -150 chalk five times, you must win three out of five just to break even.
The better you understand this, the less inclined you'll bet chalk.

Most of you know this, and I apologize if it seems I'm talking down to you, but for the love of God, stay away from -180 if you have to.

[Optional]

Again... You can not calculate the expected value to ANY Event because you don't know all probabilities of the event!

You don't need to know exactly for each individual event.

Bu if you think sport outcomes are completely "random & chaotic" I can see why you'd think knowing anything is impossible.