Originally Posted by
str
Q. as you know kingsbarns win in the tampa allowance race was fairly easy..in some ways isn't that a better or at least not a negative situation vs having a tooth and nail scrap to the finish ?
A. I would say yes, it is better than a tight, all out finish. Why? Because it allowed the horse to have a confidence building, education filled race without being drained physically. His first race had to be somewhat mentally and physically draining if for no other reason, because it was the first time he had ever experienced it.
That second race allowed the horse a little more opportunity, IMO, to concentrate on the actual task instead of things like crowd noise through the stretch, full parking lots, a lot of people in the paddock he was only used to seeing empty, etc.
And while a solid workout is worth about 1/2 of a race, again, IMO, he is fit enough to not need all that thrown at him at once. Todd will play catch up with him all the way to the Derby if he runs well Saturday so getting that easier (nothing's easy) race for race two of a four race program should allow him his best opportunity to take on the next challenge which is much better horses, longer distance, new track surface, new surroundings, and a van ride and new stall that he will sleep in.
It's a lot to overcome but the good ones can. I hope he does. It would shape this thing up to be a pretty cool story of you picking this horse so early. As far as I'm concerned, you have already succeeded in your venture. 85-1 on the 3rd or 4th choice in the La. Derby going in, is a real nice job JBEX ! One that should not go unnoticed.
Q. If todd felt he needed a little more out of the that race to move forward he could possibly get it out of him in his works leading up to this race
A. Yes. That is correct. He most likely already did that. My guess is he got Prat's services right after he passed the tough test in the morning, most likely, with flying colors.
You are not going to book one of the best riders in the country on a horse you don't feel pretty good about, out of respect to that top rider as well as your own overall reputation with riders and agents.
Q. guess no matter how hard you work them it's not nearly the same as getting the conditioning from a race
A. Correct. Like I said, my rule of thumb was about 1/2 a race. I can't say for sure that is correct for every horse, but over time, that measure usually worked in most cases for me.