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Hey STR: i just read that Belmont is going to install a Synthetic track there. I guess similar to what Gulfstream did. Handicapping wise I like the synthetic racing as sometimes you can find ponies who really like the surface. What is your take on those type of tracks? Thx in advance.
so I think STR they will have 1 dirt, 1 synthetic, and 1 turf course same as GP.
I never raced on one so I do not know all the ins and outs of Synthetic.Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
That said, I guess the knee jerk reaction is not against "it" but against change. But if you think it through, and I'm sure they thought it through thoroughly, it sounds like it makes sense.
And I am sure you CAN find horses that really favor that surface or do not, which can create an edge over those players that don't. Also have to think certain race shape situations might be better or worse for horses and that is an angle to look into. Not sure how they grade and control the depth and surface sliding towards the inside over a couple of days of harrowing which is inevitable, but that is also something that could be of REAL importance, especially if the maintenance team does the same routine of track grading consistently, which most all crews strive for.
Things like, prior to heavy rain or extended rain in a forecast or important Saturday Stakes. Every track wants the surface perfect all the time, which is almost impossible. So they will strive to make that happen on very big days which allows for biases to show before, during or after that day.
Hope that makes sense.
This makes the decision even more sensible. I would have to assume it would cut down on scratches and lesser horses in races. That is good for the handle, the player, and everyone.
Seems like a potential win, win for the horses, players, handle and all involved.
OK STR thx makes sense. I think one reason why GP and Bel are moving towards a tapeta track is that when the races are off the sod they can have fuller fields on the tapeta rather than moving it to the dirt. Just my 2 cents.
we posted the same take at 9:36 am. thx again.
Lol. That's not easy to do.
Great to here you are picking up on identifying certain horses for surfaces Easy.
Real glad to hear that.
And very impressive job in your contest. EZ: 5000/4494.85 ROI: 0.90%
You beat the rake.
That has you on the way to beating the system with a 1.01% or higher down the road.
Thx a lot STR. For the good words. That was my goal to at least beat the track rake. As you know I like the action, but I tired to stay true to the advice you presented me pre-game. Had a good time and look forward to seeing whatever everyone else does moving forward. I really hope one day when you retire you start playing the pony's again. Would be interested to see how you fare. I have a feeling you will be in the + territory we all seek to achieve. THX again.Lol. That's not easy to do.
Great to here you are picking up on identifying certain horses for surfaces Easy.
Real glad to hear that.
And very impressive job in your contest. EZ: 5000/4494.85 ROI: 0.90%
You beat the rake.
That has you on the way to beating the system with a 1.01% or higher down the road.
A somewhat interesting race/horse to look at
3/17 OP R7 Magical Song. Breeding superior. Came from last, no break at all, in BC 11/04 2ND to Klassy Bridgette winner of 3 straight. It was debut. Broke some in last and total dud. 10 weeks off and he is the ML favorite. Curious?? Increase in distance. Thoughts??
Everyone is throwing that last race out. Why? Because she has huge expectations of upside being out of the 2 time Eclipse award winner Songbird. Being by Tapit just strengthens the argument.
I think a lot of people will be really disappointed if she does not run lights out.
It's all about expectations Madison.
Hope that helps.
Always greatly appreciated STR. Thx!
I think the inside post and experience will benefit her a lot.. time off doesn't bother me as there are probably only so many spots for msw fillies at oaklawn.. however it's is likely that she might have missed at least one though.. distance won't be a problem.. I think she will go off an underlay even money
considering the price I like #5 d'oro street
no problem madison
went off co-favorites @ 8-5 and both out of the money
While I did not see the race nor have I ever seen the filly run, it looks on paper as though she just does not have the talent she was bred to hopefully have.
I remember seeing that several times over the years back in the day and it seems to me that most of those types (royally bred but not much talent on the track in comparison) ended up being really nice broodmares that threw very talented horses.
It remains to be seen if this one can turn it around which seems doubtful but possible, but if she can't, do not dismiss her offspring lightly as they will more than likely come out running.
Tough business isn't it.
You never know.
Boy, 2 pretty awful races. Good thing she wasn't 4-1 or higher. Not sure what they paid for her but let's hope she bares a few great offspring. Must be some pretty disappointed.
bred by the owners madison.. I agree with str that if she doesn't pan out on the track there's big potential as a broodmare.. did too much in her debut to give up on her.. think there's a reasonable chance if physically healthy they'll figure it out
She did run that one nice race. Maybe something is pinching her in a subtle place like a hock ( hind leg backwards knee) or it's something that while she jogs sound, it pinches when she runs but they have not yet found it. That does happen. Usually need a nuclear scan at New Bolton Center in Penn. or I guess Rod and Riddle in Ky.
Total speculation on my part. Heck it could be anything. And her works are very solid so I'm probably wrong on that.
JBEX is correct that they didn't pay for her but what they stand to lose is the year Songbird did NOT produce a nice horse, the stud fee, cost of carry for those years, and they lose the value of Songbird as a mare ( only if they would sell her.) Kind of like the housing market and all markets. Houses go up, houses go down but none of that matters unless you buy or sell during that time. In their position financially, I doubt that matters.
Would be nice to see her turn it around. She is just incredibly bred.
Sometimes we see the greatest horses not do as well as we thought they might in the breeding shed. Zenyatta comes to mind. Now maybe Songbird?
Just as we see nicely bred horses that can't run to their expectations but are fine broodmares, we also sometimes see truly great mares that underproduce to expectations. Same can be said for Stallions.
The only thing you know for sure in that business is that you know that you do not know much, for sure.
First Mission FG R7 yesterday.
Good morning gentlemen. This one looks like a good one to my untrained eye. Debut was against "Bishops Bay at 1 to 2". First was a 6F and he came through the pack and chased Bishops Bay at 1 to 2 home. I liked the stride and was enthused that they entered him at 8.5F yesterday. The way he gallops out looks pretty good to me. Think this one could be a good one. Unforunately I missed the first at 9/2 and he got pounded yesterday to 1/5.
Tough to follow Godolphin as their millions are like dollars to me.
What do you gentlemen think about Fairground as far as quality. Am I getting over-excited? Either way gonna be tough to get a price from here.
BOL and health to you!
yeah tapit's not cheap and the current broodmare value is interesting (but as you said only if they sell)..I guess when you say "cost to carry" you mean if she were barren that year it might mean an extra one down the road as only so many times she can be in foal ?
like you pointed out ..bred to be a star sometimes a dud on the track but a big producer as a broodmare and vice versa ..big time runner and non producer (of good runners)..sometimes both good and both bad..what keeps it interesting ..zenyatta as you said a good example of a dissapointment
she could very well be a good one but the value won't be there including who's the trainer.. fairgrounds is the cheapest by far of major track msw and allowance purses but at the same time I don't think it matters as much to the mega-wealthy owners who want to get their horse started in the right spot at the right time.
Bishops Bay comes up strong extending to 8F plus.
Pratt supposedly called upon to ride Kingsbarns?? Must have something here.
for pratt to ride he must think highly of him
Sorry about that. I meant the cost to board, ship, vet, whatever for Songbird for that period of time. That cost needs to be added somewhere so the logical place would be tying it to each foal as she has offspring. Doesn't seems like all that much but it really adds up and, she is Songbird. A little more expense care than a typical mare most likely.
I agree with this.
Yeah. I think he has been really high on this one since well before his 1st race.
All that hype came from somewhere and Todd wouldn't start it. But Kingsbarns probably showed it by who he worked against and how he did what he did to earn it.
Bad news travels fast but that's nothing as compared to how fast good news of an unraced baby travels on the backside.
Hey STR: what is your opinion on Quarter horse racing? I am not a fan of it as 200 to 300 yard races do not appeal to me. I mean 10 seconds and it's done. THX.
hey str
as you know kingsbarns win in the tampa allowance race was fairly easy..in some ways isn't that a better or at least not a negative situation vs having a tooth and nail scrap to the finish ? If todd felt he needed a little more out of the that race to move forward he could possibly get it out of him in his works leading up to this race
guess no matter how hard you work them it's not nearly the same as getting the conditioning from a race
.
Last edited by JBEX; 03-21-23 at 10:37 PM.
I never cared much for it Easy. They don't have it around here (Maryland, DC area) so I never really saw it.
When I would see it on TV all I saw was , Break, hair on fire, over.
I watched it but always had the same thought right after the race, which was "What the hell was that".
I guess if you were around it, it might be your thing, but I could never see the sport in it.
Q. as you know kingsbarns win in the tampa allowance race was fairly easy..in some ways isn't that a better or at least not a negative situation vs having a tooth and nail scrap to the finish ?
A. I would say yes, it is better than a tight, all out finish. Why? Because it allowed the horse to have a confidence building, education filled race without being drained physically. His first race had to be somewhat mentally and physically draining if for no other reason, because it was the first time he had ever experienced it.
That second race allowed the horse a little more opportunity, IMO, to concentrate on the actual task instead of things like crowd noise through the stretch, full parking lots, a lot of people in the paddock he was only used to seeing empty, etc.
And while a solid workout is worth about 1/2 of a race, again, IMO, he is fit enough to not need all that thrown at him at once. Todd will play catch up with him all the way to the Derby if he runs well Saturday so getting that easier (nothing's easy) race for race two of a four race program should allow him his best opportunity to take on the next challenge which is much better horses, longer distance, new track surface, new surroundings, and a van ride and new stall that he will sleep in.
It's a lot to overcome but the good ones can. I hope he does. It would shape this thing up to be a pretty cool story of you picking this horse so early. As far as I'm concerned, you have already succeeded in your venture. 85-1 on the 3rd or 4th choice in the La. Derby going in, is a real nice job JBEX ! One that should not go unnoticed.
Q. If todd felt he needed a little more out of the that race to move forward he could possibly get it out of him in his works leading up to this race
A. Yes. That is correct. He most likely already did that. My guess is he got Prat's services right after he passed the tough test in the morning, most likely, with flying colors.
You are not going to book one of the best riders in the country on a horse you don't feel pretty good about, out of respect to that top rider as well as your own overall reputation with riders and agents.
Q. guess no matter how hard you work them it's not nearly the same as getting the conditioning from a race
A. Correct. Like I said, my rule of thumb was about 1/2 a race. I can't say for sure that is correct for every horse, but over time, that measure usually worked in most cases for me.
that's an interesting perspective on the 2nd race ..so besides the race not taxing him he gets a chance to focus on the business at hand with the distractions and newness behind him
glad that you think he's in a good position to move forward off his last..lots of challenges and adversity in this spot but as you said we'll see if he can handle it
thanks for the compliment and reponse str . on the horse he was 80-1 ml in pool 3 but when I posted sunday afternoon he was 41-1and closed at 32-1.. if he wins here that'll confirm it was a good pick although with a good 2nd (need 2nd for points)he'll probably still go off lower than his future pool odds
Yes. It gives the horse a chance to become a little more familiar with a new process while being able to pay more attention to the rider and what the rider is asking the horse to do or not do. That is what helps make the horse more professional and at his best if he can handle that.
Also, I looked at the PP's for the upcoming race. As we speculated, not a lot of speed in the La. Derby at 1 mile and 3/16ths. That puts Kingsbarns about anywhere Prat wants him to be early. Seems he will be forwardly placed and depending on the break he could be very close early and even on the lead if things play that way.
That might bode well if he is capable of beating these as the Derby seems to be light this year on early speed as well. Last year it was insanely fast early. Does not seem it will be that way this year but it's still early.
hey str
let's say KB wins tomorrow..I'm trying to get an idea where the owners would stand with this horse going into the derby..he's lightly raced (derby would be start 4) , very expensive and tremendous pedigree..maybe the fact he won his debut at a mile at gulfstream would add something to it also ..as prestigious and rich as the derby is the value this horse would have when you factor in the things brought up above would be a lot more than you're typical derby winner..purses will be a secondary thing by a lot compared to his potential stallion value ; wouldn't you agree ?
Absolutely. The purse money, as large as it is, is a fraction of what the horses stallion value would immediately become.
Winning the Derby is huge. But if you can throw into that title, undefeated winner of the Derby, well, the sky is the limit.
And as great as past winners, now in the breeding shed were, he would be tomorrows, (who the Eagles so brilliantly sang about,)
"There's a new kid in town", a song Bob Dylan said was " one of the best songs ever written".
And for the time being, until the NEXT great Derby winner, Kingsbarns would be THAT horse.
So there is quite a bit riding on today's race IMO.
GL JBEX.
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