[Bsims]

Welcome TKIRK2483, good 1^st post. My initial reaction was another nutty data mining system. But after more thought, I think it might require more thought on my part. Since you referred to starting June 1^st, I assume you have not back tested. This is a system that could be back tested.

I have decided to do some back testing on the approach he suggested. I am documenting my efforts in my blog, ole44bill.blogspot.com. I started posting yesterday and called it "Anatomy of an analysis". I will be adding several posts as I progress through the project. After the initial back testing, I'll make some adjustments to see if I can improve the results. I'm still skeptical, but it will be a fun project.

[danshan11]

Bsims can you agree with this
if the Yankees close at -150 and you bet them at -150 you will overtime(margin jucie vig) lose I dont care how you got to make that bet, no matter what system you used. Only way to win is to beat the line over margin. so the question to ask yourself is how do you beat the line ?

if you bet Yankees 1000 times at -150 and they close -150 they will win 590 times you will bet 1500 units, win 1475 units, negative 25 units

if you bet Yankees 1000 times at -130 and they close -150 they will win 590 times you will bet 1300 units and win 1475 units positive 175 units

that is the only way it works