I have an estimated win probability for the NBA home team and want to convert it to a point spread, what is the formula for this?
Thanks in advance.
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One way is to convert the win probability percentages into a money line and then enter those odds into Spread/ML Converter
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/pick...mlconverter/
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I do not know if that formula is right for the specific sport you are looking at, but I DO know it is not good universally over all sports. You can test it for the sport you are looking at by inputting 197 (.663/.337) in converter and seeing how close it is to 4.5
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I was more exact and inputed 196.7 and got the following:
NFL: 4.5 (Voila!)
CFB: 6.5
NBA: 5.5
CBK: 4.5 (Voila!)
Doesn't really prove anything but you may be close for NFL. And it seems fluky that your formula gets 4.5 for both NFL and CBK given the mass difference in the scoring distributions for those two sports.
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IMO, point spread and win probability do not correspond. The spread corresponds to public perception and does not reflect or equate to win probability.
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I see what you mean in regards to comparing the 'vegas spread' with the spread that that model generates and betting accordingly, but IMO, I don't think you can actually begin the process with an accurate win probability. What generates the win probability percentage? What comes before the win prob prcntg?
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OP starts off with 'I have an estimated win probability'.
What margin for error are you dealing with in regards to the estimation? 2%? 5%? 7%?
Do you run the model plugging in the various 'win prob %'s' due to the margin for error? Once you get into doing that, not sure that you would see any significant variance between 'model line' and 'vegas line'. And again, just my opinion and I very well may be wrong.
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=1/(1+exp((0.61323+0.167546*(3.01))))
I assume you mean raising e to that power. Not subtracting it from e
The result is
0.527202 is that close to what you want?
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Go to Formulas on the ribbon at the top.
Select Name manager
Select New
Type dSRS
Select the cell where you will have dSRS in the refers section
Close the name manager
you can use this formula
=EXP(drRs*0.167)
is there a reason you want to lock it to a specific cell? You know that you can just select the cell and get the same result, right? If you type A1, it will give you the negative of what is in cell A1
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You need to specify order of operations.
Do you want
The natural log of 1/(N71) or the natural log of ((1/n7)1)
Option 1: =ln(1/(N71))/0.13959
Option 2: =ln((1/N7)1)/0.13959
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