Home Field Advantage

**Dunder** · 03-12-10, 08:06 PM

All of these things are difficult to quantify or prove empirically. When faced with tasks like this, it is normal to find commonalities and strip out that data.

I know you are a soccer fan so by way of example consider Inter Milan and AC Milan. These teams share a stadium and there is multiple decades of data of them playing against each other with one teams designated as the home team and as such having 90+% fan support. There a good 10-15 similar examples in European leagues. How do these teams records compare when technically playing at home but being designated as the away team?

The distance traveled element can also be looked at with a much bigger sample. Think of (again just an example) the EPL where Man Utd, Man City, Bolton, Liverpool and Blackburn are all within 30 miles of each other.

I have done this analysis and while the sample is not big enough to be conclusive, it is fair to say that fan support and its influence on officials is easily the single biggest factor when it comes to domestic soccer.

**doublec** · 03-13-10, 11:00 PM

And don't forget that this is different by sport and level. Amateurs generally seem to be far more influenced than professionals.

**donjuan** · 03-14-10, 03:58 AM

Originally posted by doublec

And don't forget that this is different by sport and level. Amateurs generally seem to be far more influenced than professionals.

It's more about the refs than the players themselves when it comes to HFA/HCA.

**Sawyer** · 03-14-10, 06:28 AM

Home Advantage in soccer is huge. Fan Support (some teams have wild&crazy fans!) and geographical reasons can be very effective. Vladivostok (Lucia Energia) in Russian League, Nacinal Madeira in Portugal for example. (Geographical Reasons)

**Wrecktangle** · 03-14-10, 09:31 AM

I see HFA as a critical component of your analysis and the parts of it varies for the sport.

In the NFL, for example, it varies by week of the season, weather, turf, inside/outside a dome, and division Rivalry at least. I have a db of games going back to 1994 and I still am not comfortable I have enough games to quantify this factor.

Good luck.

**Sawyer** · 03-14-10, 11:28 AM

Let's discuss home advantage in baseball!

Some people think home advantage is not really important in baseball. I don't think so. Baseball is a game of concentration. You know every ballpark is different.

**Justin7** · 03-14-10, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Let's discuss home advantage in baseball!

Some people think home advantage is not really important in baseball. I don't think so. Baseball is a game of concentration. You know every ballpark is different.

The home field adds about 4.1% to the home's win percentage. I'm not sure there's any real long-term difference between stadiums.

**Sawyer** · 03-14-10, 01:15 PM

Should be a little bit higher imo. Of course, home advantage is different for every team. Some teams are good at home, awful when playing on the road. Padres were 42-39 at home, 33-48 on the road. Tampa Bay 52-29 at home, 32-49 on the road, Toronto 44-37, 31-50 etc.

Your chance to hit is better when you're playing at home

**IrishTim** · 03-14-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

The home field adds about 4.1% to the home's win percentage. I'm not sure there's any real long-term difference between stadiums.

What about for totals?

**BigdaddyQH** · 03-14-10, 01:44 PM

Totals depend on a lot of varying things. Weather is huge. In baseball, is the wind blowing in or out, critical in parks like Wrigley Field, and in San Francisco. Day and night games also must be considered. Normally, the ball travels a lot further in Dodger Stadium during the day than at night.

Then there are the dimentions of the field itself. As we all know, they differ in just about every ballpark. Obviously there will be more runs scored in Yankee Stadium, with relatively short dimentions in the power alleys, and a jet stream that seemingly blows from home plate out, than at a stadium with larger dimentions, like Petco Field in San Diego, where you can have a football game break out in the outfield and not bother the baseball players.

In football, the weather play a huge role, since each field is 100 yards long. Grass vs Turf is another major issue. Speed teams tend to fare better on offense on turf, but can get slowed down on grass.

**Sawyer** · 03-14-10, 02:00 PM

I wish I was a Starting Pitcher in San Diego

**Masu485** · 03-14-10, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

The home field adds about 4.1% to the home's win percentage. I'm not sure there's any real long-term difference between stadiums.

hmm, do you know mean numbers for each of the major american sports?

also, do you know the breakdown of the different variables that make up home field advantage, such as how much affect the crowd has?

**Bsims** · 03-14-10, 03:34 PM

Many years ago I had this theory that the home court advantage in college basketball was because the referees were intimidated into calling more fouls on the road team. This would translate into more free throws made for the home team and explain the difference. To prove this I compared all types of team statistics between home teams and road teams.

Turns out my theory was wrong. Basically, the home team did everything a bit better than the road team, hence the advantage.

**makaveli66** · 03-14-10, 06:08 PM

The advantage is obviously alot more substantial at certain places like clemson and duke in basketball and Boston in baseball, but for the most part home field advantage is not that significant in baseball as it is in college basketball. And even in college basketball there is no tool to measure it accurately as the advantage exists almost entirely due to the emotion and confidence players have from playing at certain places under certain crowds.