I learned long ago from a book friend gave me one thing is permanent forever and the speed handicappers always argue with the guys who know about Class of horses
thats it guys do not ask a $5000 clamier to win at $10,000 claimer period
DO NOT ask girls to race against boys unless they do it constantly
Stay away from big class droppers like Dropping down from $30 K to $10 k all the owner is trying to do is recoup his losses on the old pony ...
HOW to handicap them and it tough today the DRF is small you only get last 5 races of each horse
1st off 100% the winningest post positions in the history of horse racing are the 2- 4 - 6 -7
every race has only 4 contenders that get in the money or win it ....
top favs like 8/5 win only about 30% of the time better choice would be 2nd fav at maybe 2-1
how to handicap them 1st off calculator needed and pen
now lets look at field or i'll make up the horses for you you use last 6 races of the horse
each horse must have at least 6 races for the year if not use last years combined with this years
give them 300 points for each win 100 for each 2nd and 50 for each 3rd
ok this horse running in same class
has earned 15000 in all races this year 10 of them so his earnings per race are $1500
go down last 6 races has 1 nd and 1 3rd he now is 1650 rating
next horse has earned $8000 over 9 races for year
$ he gets $888.88 per race last 6 races only 1 2nd place 988.88
next horse you like has earned 8500 over 10 races so $850 per race has 2 nds and a win he gets 1350 rating
4th horse has won 9500$ over 7 races = $1357 earned last 6 races no wins 2nds or 3rds he shows all races fading
last thing we look at is speeed at distance 6 furlongs average time of winners is 1:20.08
ok forget the .08 your horse finshed 3 lengths behind the winner add 1/5th of a sec for each length
time is 120. oo penetrate i forget how to figure each length is 1/4 of a sec that 4 / 1/4 = 1 sec it's fifth of sec
just searched for it
The raw turn time is the same, but this runner gained 2 lengths on the turn, so his adjusted TT is 22.3.
ok so
or top rating horse 1650 closed like mo fo in last race time of winner was 1:12.05 5ths
he was length behind closed from 6 lenghts back his time would be 1:12.06
the other three lost lengths at end like they were up at 2nd dropped back to 4th losing by 5 lengths or more sratch them we take our closer and the byer in that race was 90
last thing and very important is WIND MPH front runners eating up wind early of 10 mph turn into losers after final turn to home i seen horses ahead by 15 lengths lose like they running on tread mill 100's of times
let me tell you ratings how many times i had 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th place horse in the order of ratings
like ok in my example above 1650 1357 1350 989 and they finished in order top 3 989 is not enough to get us 4th
he's 661 from top 361 from 3rd
of course the odds board means zilch people betting these horses make them chalks the horse at 6/5 you eliminated he lost lengths blew a 5 length lead down the stretch thats what you do
also you want horses right back after 3 weeks
another thing you see a horse after a win out of action 5 weeks scratch them
trainer or owner screwed up also work outs mean nothing
and know your tracks each track has posts that biased
never ever bet favs tri's or exactas i did this once boxed top 3 for $12 and lost money tri paid 9$ exacta paid $3.50 wiiner at 6/5 if i put $15 to win on him i get back more money $18 profit
btw the exacta came from exoctics so from now on remember there is only 1 horse that wins the race
i bet win n place on horses 5-1 - 6-1 etc..win place n show on all long shots 10-1 or higher
thank me later
thats it guys do not ask a $5000 clamier to win at $10,000 claimer period
DO NOT ask girls to race against boys unless they do it constantly
Stay away from big class droppers like Dropping down from $30 K to $10 k all the owner is trying to do is recoup his losses on the old pony ...
HOW to handicap them and it tough today the DRF is small you only get last 5 races of each horse
1st off 100% the winningest post positions in the history of horse racing are the 2- 4 - 6 -7
every race has only 4 contenders that get in the money or win it ....
top favs like 8/5 win only about 30% of the time better choice would be 2nd fav at maybe 2-1
how to handicap them 1st off calculator needed and pen
now lets look at field or i'll make up the horses for you you use last 6 races of the horse
each horse must have at least 6 races for the year if not use last years combined with this years
give them 300 points for each win 100 for each 2nd and 50 for each 3rd
ok this horse running in same class
has earned 15000 in all races this year 10 of them so his earnings per race are $1500
go down last 6 races has 1 nd and 1 3rd he now is 1650 rating
next horse has earned $8000 over 9 races for year
$ he gets $888.88 per race last 6 races only 1 2nd place 988.88
next horse you like has earned 8500 over 10 races so $850 per race has 2 nds and a win he gets 1350 rating
4th horse has won 9500$ over 7 races = $1357 earned last 6 races no wins 2nds or 3rds he shows all races fading
last thing we look at is speeed at distance 6 furlongs average time of winners is 1:20.08
ok forget the .08 your horse finshed 3 lengths behind the winner add 1/5th of a sec for each length
time is 120. oo penetrate i forget how to figure each length is 1/4 of a sec that 4 / 1/4 = 1 sec it's fifth of sec
just searched for it
Example for a 6-furlong race:
Fractional times as listed in the past performances (with beaten lengths below the fraction time):
224 454 1103
0 1 2
(If using times in 10ths - the above would be 22.8, 45.6, 110.8 - divide the 10ths by 2 to approximate the old length = a fifth of a second format)
0 1 2
(If using times in 10ths - the above would be 22.8, 45.6, 110.8 - divide the 10ths by 2 to approximate the old length = a fifth of a second format)
The raw turn time is 45.4 (45 and 4/5 seconds) minus 22.4 (22 and 4/5 seconds) = 23 seconds.
The horse lost one length (which is approximately 1/5th of a second) = 23.1 seconds for the adjusted turn time.
The horse lost one length (which is approximately 1/5th of a second) = 23.1 seconds for the adjusted turn time.
Below is another horse in that same race:
224 454 1103
4 2 1
4 2 1
ok so
or top rating horse 1650 closed like mo fo in last race time of winner was 1:12.05 5ths
he was length behind closed from 6 lenghts back his time would be 1:12.06
the other three lost lengths at end like they were up at 2nd dropped back to 4th losing by 5 lengths or more sratch them we take our closer and the byer in that race was 90
last thing and very important is WIND MPH front runners eating up wind early of 10 mph turn into losers after final turn to home i seen horses ahead by 15 lengths lose like they running on tread mill 100's of times
let me tell you ratings how many times i had 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th place horse in the order of ratings
like ok in my example above 1650 1357 1350 989 and they finished in order top 3 989 is not enough to get us 4th
he's 661 from top 361 from 3rd
of course the odds board means zilch people betting these horses make them chalks the horse at 6/5 you eliminated he lost lengths blew a 5 length lead down the stretch thats what you do
also you want horses right back after 3 weeks
another thing you see a horse after a win out of action 5 weeks scratch them
trainer or owner screwed up also work outs mean nothing
and know your tracks each track has posts that biased
never ever bet favs tri's or exactas i did this once boxed top 3 for $12 and lost money tri paid 9$ exacta paid $3.50 wiiner at 6/5 if i put $15 to win on him i get back more money $18 profit
btw the exacta came from exoctics so from now on remember there is only 1 horse that wins the race
i bet win n place on horses 5-1 - 6-1 etc..win place n show on all long shots 10-1 or higher
thank me later