Who is Maneae anyway, rookie?
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Manaea is a straight fade for sure. He can't get out of his own way anymore. He gets lit up every start.Comment -
The Giants look like world beaters against the Phillies this weekend. Too bad its too little too late for them but at least it was fun watching them beat a good team for a change.Comment -
Manaea is not a rookie, he just sucks this year.Comment -
I wonder if they juice up the ball again next year?Comment -
Dodgers Stadium playing like Coors Light tonight. Ball just flying with this heat wave throughout California. Same thing down the road with the Angels mostly Ohtani and Trout mashing the ball tonight.Comment -
The Red Sox have gotten a jump on their offseason business, reportedly agreeing to a one-year contract extension with utilityman Enrique Hernández. The deal guarantees the Wasserman client $10MM for the 2023 season.
Hernández had been slated to hit free agency this winter, but he’ll bypass that opportunity for a third season in Boston. The longtime Dodger first hit the open market over the 2020-21 offseason, when he signed a two-year, $14MM pact with Boston. It was a surprisingly strong multi-year arrangement on the heels of back-to-back down seasons at the plate, but it quickly looked like a coup for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his front office.
The Puerto Rico native posted arguably his best season to date in 2021. He tallied a personal-high 585 plate appearances and connected on 20 home runs and 19 doubles with an overall .250/.337/.449 slash line. Hernández walked at a robust 10.4% clip, only struck out 18.8% of the time and made a strong impact from a power perspective. Altogether, by measure of wRC+, his offensive production checked in nine percentage points above league average.
Hernández paired that well-rounded hitting output with his typically strong defense. As he has throughout his career, Hernández proved willing to bounce between the infield and outfield. He spent the bulk of his time in center field and at second base, with public defensive metrics placing him among the league’s best at the former position. On the heels of that strong first season in Fenway, Hernández deservedly earned Boston’s Opening Day nod in center field this year.
The 31-year-old hasn’t managed to replicate last year’s production though. He slumped to a .193/.266/.325 line through the season’s first month and has never fully gotten back on track. While Hernández has improved upon that particularly tepid early-season output, he’s posted below-average numbers at the dish in each month when healthy. He also lost a bit more than eight weeks to a strained right hip flexor that sidelined him from early June until the middle of August. Altogether, Hernández has gotten into 68 games and tallied 304 plate appearances, compiling a meager .219/.283/.354 showing with just six longballs.
Some of Hernández’s underlying numbers have correspondingly gone in the wrong direction. His walks are down to a below-average 7.9% clip, while his rate of hard contact has plummeted from 43.2% to 34.4%. Perhaps the Red Sox are willing to attribute the offensive downturn, at least in part, to the hip issue through which Hernández was battling. Disappointing as his 2022 work at the plate has been, he has continued to rate as an above-average defensive center fielder. If he can recapture something resembling league average offense, Hernández would still be a valuable contributor — either as the regular center fielder or in a utility role that sees him bounce more frequently between the dirt and the grass.
Presumably, Hernández will get the first crack at an everyday outfield role again. The Sox don’t have much in the way of established in-house alternatives, with former top prospect Jarren Duran struggling to a .218/.269/.355 line with bottom-tier defensive metrics through his first 90 big league games. For a Red Sox team that is looking to immediately return to contention after a disappointing 2022 campaign, penciling the 26-year-old into the Opening Day lineup is probably too risky. If Duran plays his way into an everyday job, Hernández could slide into a superutility capacity.
One could argue Boston should’ve aimed higher than either Hernández or Duran and sought an external upgrade in center field. Re-signing Hernández doesn’t expressly rule that out, although it’d seem to alleviate the pressure on Bloom and his staff to dip into very thin waters at the position. Aaron Judge, of course, is the top free agent who’ll be available but looks likely to command a salary approaching or exceeding $300MM. Aside from Judge, Brandon Nimmo is the only clear above-average center fielder who’s slated to hit the open market. The Rays are certain to buy out defensive stalwart Kevin Kiermaier (with whom Bloom is plenty familiar from his time in the Tampa Bay front office), but Kiermaier’s coming off a shaky offensive season of his own and recently underwent season-ending hip surgery.
The trade market may not offer many solutions either. Teams are sure to try to pry Bryan Reynolds away from the Pirates yet again, but no team has been successful (or seemingly even come close) to doing so. The A’s will probably listen to offers on Ramón Laureano, but he’s arguably a cleaner fit in a corner outfield spot than up the middle. Other trade candidates include the Royals Michael A. Taylor and the Cubs Rafael Ortega, but it’s not clear either is an upgrade over Hernández.
It’s the start of what figures to be a busy offseason in Boston. The Red Sox are facing the potential free agent departures of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, among others. Assuming Bogaerts opts out of the remaining three years on his current contract, the Sox are slated to enter the offseason with a bit more than $70MM in guaranteed commitments for 2023 after accounting for Hernández’s deal. Rafael Devers headlines an arbitration class that’s likely to push that tally north of $90MM.
That still leaves plenty of room for a club that opened this year with a payroll above $206MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ll need to overhaul the pitching staff, address a middle infield position if Bogaerts departs, and perhaps look for upgrades at catcher and in a corner outfield spot. There’s a lot of work to be done this offseason. Today’s agreement to keep around a familiar player whom the organization clearly expects to right the ship marks the first of many key decisions on the horizon.Comment -
Nats with another big dog specialComment -
So is Ohtani going to be with the Angels opening day 2023?Comment -
Padres playing like they don't want to go to the playoffsComment -
Lewis Brinson hit another bomb tonight even though the Giants went on to lose the game which I kind of expected with it being a bullpen game. I'm happy they finally got some young talent in Brinson who I know was a highly regarded prospect with the Marlins but he never clicked and he had to go down to the minors to find his swing. Maybe the Giants found a diamond in the rough with Brinson so hopefully they bring him back next year.Comment -
Looking tougher for the orioles 3.5 games backComment -
Sean Manaea
Sun 8/28 @ 
KCL
15-7
4.0 10 6 6 1 0 4 6 12 79 22 22.0 L(7-7) - 4.90 Sun 8/21 vs 
WSHW
2-1
7.0 5 1 1 1 0 4 7 14 69 25 67.0 W(7-6) - 4.64 Tue 8/16 @ 
MIAL
4-3
4.0 4 3 3 2 1 6 5 5 64 17 47.0 - - 4.83 Wed 8/10 vs 
SFW
13-7
5.0 6 4 3 1 1 4 5 11 79 22 44.0 - - 4.76 Fri 8/5 @ 
LADL
8-1
4.0 10 8 8 0 1 7 6 9 82 24 16.0 L(6-6) - 4.74 august 24.0 35 22 21 5 3 25 29 51 373 110 39.2 - - 7.88 Comment -
Braves crushing it and gonna send the Mets packingComment -
Lewis Brinson shouldn't be the best player, or anywhere near the best player on any team.Comment -
Who Lewis Brunson anyway?Comment -
Not really hanging my hat on Brinson but he did hit 3 homeruns in two games against the Dodgers so that caught my eye is all. He was a bust with the Marlins so maybe he won't amount to much as a Giant but it was nice to see someone have a good game against the hated Dodgers.Comment -
He is a former first round pick and was a top 30 prospect for a while. He has mostly bounced around though because he never lived up to his minor league hype after going to the Marlins from the Brewers for Christian Yelich. The Giants got him from the Astros in the Mauricio Dubon trade but it remains to be seen if his outburst against the Dodgers is fools gold or not because he had elite power and speed in the minors but he sucked as a Marlin.Comment -
10:12AM: Scherzer has been officially placed on the IL, retroactive to September 4.
8:58AM: The Mets are placing ace Max Scherzer on the 15-day injured list, manager Buck Showalter announced to reporters Wednesday morning (Twitter link via Newsday’s Tim Healey). The team is hopeful that he’ll return after a minimum stint on the shelf. Scherzer departed his most recent start due to “fatigue” in the same left oblique muscle he strained earlier in the season — an injury that kept him sidelined for nearly two months.
Scherzer, 38, has been sensational for the Mets when healthy enough to take the mound. The three-time Cy Young winner has logged a 2.26 ERA while striking out 30.6% of his opponents against just a 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaged 6 1/3 innings per outing, even with a pair of early exits due to an increasingly problematic left oblique. Scherzer had been slated to start this Friday in Miami.
The injury to Scherzer comes in conjunction with a sequence of brutal losses to the last-place Pirates and Nationals. The Mets have dropped three in row while watching the Braves cruise to six straight victories, culminating in the evaporation of what was once a whopping 10.5-game lead in the NL East for the Mets; the two teams are currently tied with identical 85-51 records.
Even with Scherzer sidelined, the Mets have a strong top four in the rotation, with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all active. Walker has struggled of late, with a 6.25 ERA since the All-Star break, although the majority of the damage against him came in one appearance: an eight-run meltdown against Atlanta. Both David Peterson and Trevor Williams are stretched out enough to make starts in place of Scherzer. Peterson started for the Mets both on Aug. 27 and Sept. 2, working a combined 11 1/3 innings, so he’d certainly be an option to step in for Scherzer on Friday against the Marlins.Comment -
Cardinals 5 run 9th for the 6-5 win
Walk off by EdmondsComment -
Wow Jim Edmonds!!!! LoLComment -
Padres move into second place in the WC raceComment -
Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.
Or, all of that could be rendered moot.
Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.
At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.
If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.
Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox
Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.
At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.
It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.
Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.
Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays
Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.
At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)
However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…
Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).
Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.
In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.
Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels
When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.
In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.
Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.
Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays
Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.
There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.
Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).Comment -
I believe he did as well.Comment
